Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.
Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back. Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts. Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-) sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ... But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far.. For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200 I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...? Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K. A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs. The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here. Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels. By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later. yes, sounds quite plausible...imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish). I still think that this is not a description of the bull market continuation, but something new. In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense. Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far). |
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The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?
At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it. the 'end of it' could be more than we bargained for. i don't like the whole setup. |
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Yeah. That's the thing bothering me. This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want... I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets. prediction: +0.5%, but nothing would be broken..it's "getting priced in" |
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I’m in it for the tech any way.
well, i am still in it because of the tech. ngl though the early retirement, security and toys it gave me were pretty dope somehow, my feeling is that recently retired would soon unretire, but it is just a feeling. being retired in this s-t to me makes it not worth it (to be retired), but on that the opinions may differ. new from M. Saylor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx8goIcXa2Y |
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before you said to move the discussion, you posted half a page a direct quote from an article of your opinions facts on the topic.
FTFY To me, this sounds like an OPINION, which I don't want to discuss because of the general futility of such discussions. If you have a nice graph explaining our current predicament in bitcoin-that i can discuss at length with everyone and anyone. |
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<snip, snip, snip>Any further discussion should be moved to Bob's thread.
...posts a bunch of stuff, then says that the discussion should be moved. ...what about your post? move it too, pal, or are you the one who always wants to have the last word? I thought so. Wha? I said to move the discussion out of courtesy to everyone here who doesn't want to hear it on the WO thread. But discuss away. Do you have something constructive to add on the docs I posted, or would you just rather ad hominem attack the messenger? Pal. <Covid stuff>
...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.before you said to move the discussion, you posted half a page of your opinions on the topic. contrary to you, I don't want to add anything...out of courtesy, indeed. |
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Damn...I like how many start having these bearish 10k 9k Vegeta thoughts...
I'm likely to start drinking again if we do the whole Vegeta thing again. I am SO ABSOLUTELY over it. Indeed. I had goosebumps just hearing about Vegeta again. At 9k, almost no miner would be profitable (at the current difficulty level). |
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<snip, snip, snip>Any further discussion should be moved to Bob's thread.
...posts a bunch of stuff, then says that the discussion should be moved. ...what about your post? move it too, pal, or are you the one who always wants to have the last word? I thought so. |
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Still, you should buy when it starts going back up, NOT while it is going down.
I don't know about bitcoin (perhaps it is unique), but buying any other asset when it is going down is a sure path to ruin..you just never know when it is going to stop.
Well, if you mechanically DCA, maybe OK, especially for indexes, but then you shouldn't increase or decrease your DCA-ing based on your price perception.
The latter could be erroneous.
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Sooo, it looks like WS "nobility" of the Fidelity and Black Rock are involved.
Gives you a perspective on this "dip"..similar to the internet dip of 2001-2002..just an excuse to load up on the cheap.
I think they're already loaded to the brim after 10+ years of bull run... just a matter of selling before the peasants. Look at Netflix today, fucking hell. I was 1.5-2 years early with netflix puts, but because of incredible volatility in March of 2020, I was able to sell NFLX puts (that were still $50 out of money) for a small profit. In normal conditions, they should have been worth close to zero. |
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SPACs are basically the shitcoins/NFTs of the Wall Street world now. Just Pink Sheets 2.0 for the get-poor-quick meme generation.
Insiders divest on launch, getting rich whilst leaving the late investors holding worthless bags.
just the matter of price. may 13.5% of all hash power mining in a energy-efficient mining operations generate good earnings? If you think that it is not, long term, then bitcoin is not really sustainable at the miner level. |
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Was it a SPAC? down 19%, just today. btfd?
Special purpose acquisition company... basically Wall Street bullshit that takes "shelf company" to a whole new level. They create a SPAC that does absolutely nothing but is listed on e.g. NASDAQ, with the sole purpose of eventually merging with an actual business (who presumably will want to merge with you because that gives them instant listing on NASDAQ). The SPAC "sponsors" - typically banks or venture capital firms - take their cut upon completing the merger and don't give two shits about the actual business. Not that I really mind Wall Street finding new ways to separate TikTok and Reddit kids from their money. Survival of the richest. yes, but look at the anchor sponsor-Black Rock. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/north-america-s-biggest-bitcoin-miner-to-debut-after-spac-voteSooo, it looks like WS "nobility" of the Fidelity and Black Rock ilk are involved. Gives you a perspective on this "dip"..similar to the internet dip of 2001-2002..just an excuse to load up on the cheap. Core Scientific had mining capacity of 6.6 exahash, or a measure of computational power, for its own account and 6.9 for hosted customers, for a combined 13.5 exahash of processing power at the end of last year. That exceeded the company’s previously issued outlook for 11 by the end of 2021. They also had a stockpile of 5,296 Bitcoin.
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. had a 3.5 exahash rate at the end of December, and Riot Blockchain Inc., 3.1 exahash, respectively, though both companies have projected sharp gains in processing power for the coming year. 13.5 exahash is 6.7% of ALL btc hash power, using today's numbers (could be more if hash data for them is older than today's). |
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Was it a SPAC? down 19%, just today. btfd? I would definitely put it on my stocks to watch list, though. |
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he/she is just one confused mo-fo, like the rest of us here.
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@jjg...who is the bigger dweeb here than the "writer"?
As a small solace, these developments hurt my pocket just the same, but I cannot not see what I foresee...but, right now, the thought is...it will pass.
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Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.
it's still locked...until in range  |
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Michael Saylor's recent wisdom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpUU7k5OZ1k..goes after NFTs viciously (and rightly in this segment). Here is the part about NFTs if you don't want the whole vid: https://youtu.be/HpUU7k5OZ1k?t=479Nobody knows if it is the same guy/gal bidding on their own stuff from multiple accounts, fluffing it up. Talks about bitcoin, stable coins, CBDCs, etc as well. |
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Buddy is pointing upwards?
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Ozark was surprisingly interesting to watch, maybe because of all those turns. Btw, why it is pronounced Missour-a (at least by natives)? Then again, it is Kan-zas (not Kan-saw), yet it is Arkan-saw. Bewildering |
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I used to mine and the most important formula for me in determining whether I could be profitable or not was: [2 16-1]/[2 48D] which (since we're working with such large numbers) you can boil down to 1/2 32D where D is the current difficulty 24371874614345 (you can find it here: https://chainquery.com/bitcoin-cli/getdifficulty). That formula gives you the probability of any computed hash leading to a valid block. 1/104,676,404,410,824,387,461,120 So for a single 110TH miner the probabilty of a block in one second is 1/951,603,676 Solo pools don't share the reward among all the miners but they still pool their resources to work on the same block. In this case, only the miner who finds it gets the reward but the combined hashrate of all participants would be used. CK solo pool ( https://solo.ckpool.org/pool/) has about 2000 users with about 13,000 devices and shows a hashrate of 37.6 PH/s so the probability of a valid block in one second is 1/2,783,947 which indicates they should solve about one block every month. Of course, the hashrate fluctuates as users come and go and difficulty changes ~every 2 weeks but finding 2 blocks in a month with their current hashrate is pretty lucky. However, if you look back at their previous history, they have been rather unlucky; finding only 4 blocks in all of 2020 and only 2 in 2019. You can't cheat at hashing bitcoin - it all comes out in the wash. It's normal distribution but very exciting for CK I'm sure. 110th "right now" would give you about 0.165 BTC/year equivalent or 0.01375 btc/mo. calculation: [110/219018363]X144x365x6.25=0.164986166 btc/year the lucky "guy" got 37.87 years worth of mining value. |
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