I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.
Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...
Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.
This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability. |
|
|
|
Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?
I don’t know does it even mean?
means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned winter beater vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few) When I just started driving, I bought an old car from a guy for $300, lol. He just wanted to get rid of it. I drove it for a year, then got into a minor accident and after that the car started using one jug of oil per grocery trip a few miles away. Needless to say that I had to sent it out to the junkyard, but felt bad about it...of course, it was the first that I actually owned. Memories... |
|
|
|
Naah, Ben told Jenny that he has another flask in his back pocket..hence the stony face (hers) and his smirk. |
|
|
|
I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021. House remodeling is expensive. My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards. For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74gIn New York? OK as your second or third home, I guess. maybe..the vibe from a promoter/re agent was that this is like owning a Picasso-something very unique and there are only about 400-500 apt total in skyscrapers like this (in NY). I was suggested the video by youtube earlier today. It says that half the falts are empty, even the most expensive ones. Someone pays 250 millions for a flat and never uses it, even once. What a waste ! It was also suggested that maybe it wasn't the best investment, because at first, with one such tower, it was "unique", but now, like you say there are several hundreds of them. 4-5 buildings, 400-500 apartments, still a rarity..before Musk would start selling apartments on Mars, lol. Not using bought apartments/houses is nothing new, though, London, Paris, Vancouver, Toronto, Singapore, etc., all have it and fighting back with unused property taxes. Personally, I would love to have an apt in NY, preferably Manhattan, been there a lot during my thirties, loved it back then. London is very interesting too. Re bitcoin...will someone post a man with a stick pic, please...not much action, it seems. |
|
|
|
I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021. House remodeling is expensive. My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards. For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74gIn New York? OK as your second or third home, I guess. maybe..the vibe from a promoter/re agent was that this is like owning a Picasso-something very unique and there are only about 400-500 apt total in skyscrapers like this (in NY). |
|
|
|
|
@AlcoHoDL post was legit-basically grievance for a family member, my condolencies.
However, i do think that COVID discussion should be mostly on Bob's thread.
A little here is OK, but not if it dominates.
Personally, i almost never post on this topic (maybe to clarify something biological) and I LIKE the idea of neutrality as I also don't like to discuss the political leanings per se.
It is also true that nothing, apart from bitcoin, unites the members, so we should be focused on bitcoin and connecting topics, imho.
Politics would never be a consensus here and no expectation of polite discourse on that.
|
|
|
|
So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?
I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.
BTC to $100,000 by April.
I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income. So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession. No bargaining of any sort. Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally. If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened. <snip>My guess is we need a great leveller event such as one from Walter Scheidel’s book “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” but living through one of those would not be nice. And any positive results don’t seem to last anyway. Therefore join the capital class as best you can, because history shows being on the losing side absolutely sucks. Thank you Satoshi for giving me a chance at this. Yes and yes. I also read this book. A very nice, but VERY academic study. I managed to finish it..with some effort. Yes, being in the capital/investor class with assets is the only way to beat inflation. Wages would not cut it. Most of my colleagues are counting on pension and or/working until mid seventies. I don't have a heart to tell them them that in a high inflation environment pensions (and we have those without inflation compensation) are doomed. Even Social Security is better (it has COL, standing for the cost of living adjustment). |
|
|
|
I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021. House remodeling is expensive. My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards. For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74g |
|
|
|
So with the rise of Omicron in Europe and soon the USA (I think it will go astronomical over there - compare the delay previously in Feb - March 2020 Europe and the months following in the US) how long before tapering becomes complete acceleration of money printing?
I'd say there will be another couple of rounds of helicopter money. February 2022 and May 2022.
BTC to $100,000 by April.
I don't know the why or the when. But what I do know for absolute certainity is that there will always be more printing. Every asset, not just bitcoin, will be heading north. Great time to be an asset holder, worst time to be a worker relying on only income. So true, I am still working and we had measly 4-5% increase (in total) in the last three years and in Texas you can't even strike for my current profession. No bargaining of any sort. Inflation-10.6% (official), essentially a 5-6% cut, minimally. If not for bitcoin, etc., belt tightening would have happened. |
|
|
|
|
By the looks of it, and with some perky shitcoins acting up (driven by their corporate hedge fund sponsors), the only way to flush them out is a bearish period.
If bitcoin will be flat to up, we are going to lose dominance, which is bad starting at 40-41% now.
Beforehand, we never went below 36%.
Maybe it means that we about to outperform, but by the look of a few coins with a concentrated funds position, it seems less likely, unless something truly positive happens.
Gary G. was instrumental in curtailing our run so far, it seems, with no-spot-ETF situation.
|
|
|
|
However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses. Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes? Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate This is what scares me: it's as if policy makers are in full panic mode, meanwhile comforting everyone to sleep. Yes, they cannot prevent collapse, but they react very quickly now-see the comparison between the speed of 2007/08 response and 2020. In 2020 they turned it around fairly quickly. |
|
|
|
The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.  Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better! Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:  The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes. Yes, I agree that it is possible. However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses. Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate because in this situation good stock would have a very high rate of earnings growth (in nominal $$). Watch the graphs of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN on a long term chart and especially since 2012-2013. It is a clear exponent, driven at least in part by currency debasement. |
|
|
|
I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.
Short term, we are in a clear downtrend, midterm-about flat, longer term-still uptrend. In this view btc would flatten up on the short term chart before surging higher and ultimately produce a longer cycle, terminating somewhere in Q1-Q2 2022. An alternative, worse view, would be that we are in a longer term flat similar to the one we saw in 2018 at around 6k. This view would suggest that we would stay relatively flat for a while before a sharp plunge, which would start the long term bull. Personally, my opinion is neither of the two views above. To re-iterate, I think that we bottomed for this cycle in June and the secondary top was a simple reaction to a premature top (in April) caused by China shenanigans. Without China, we were about to go exponential in April (all signs were there) and should have finished the cycle by May or June at the latest. Instead, we got a double hump with bull energy spent between two peaks instead of one. Right now-we are early in the NEXT cycle, imho. Flat city. |
|
|
|
Once it is done the next step will be hooking up with some PA investors. We need to see how it works out. All in good time.
What's a PA investor-the one from Pennsylvania? I know PE (private equity), don't know PA, unless it is, indeed, the state.. |
|
|
|
You might disagree with his focus (albeit not completely) on alts, but this is overall a very decent guy (Tyler aka Chico Crypto), imho. Burned out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_FWxlKRYBcIt's sad to see that being under stress of producing content daily did something quite bad for his mental state. A very honest, jarring video. Don't get the "game" get to you. Getting off a daily grind in bitcoin and kind of moving to a long term picture has been very good for me this cycle vs 2017-2018-first excitement, then crash, pins and needles. |
|
|
|
I heard you guys love McDonald  Probably more like  is this a Mickey D's witch or Taylor Swift? |
|
|
|
|
Texas has a lot of laws on guns, but the population is smart enough not to press the issue to the hilt.
Almost nobody in Houston is going around openly carrying a gun, but they could if a need arises.
"Beginning September 1, 2021, HB1927 made it legal in Texas for most people 21 or over to carry a handgun in a holster without a permit both openly and/or concealed."
However, there are many exceptions of places and events.
Exactly how this law interacts with the prior law that prohibited open carry on College campuses, I am not sure.
Typically, there are a lot of gun-related texts posted on the walls (on campuses), not sure if everything is even current.
Now, as far as bitcoin is concerned, nothing special is happening, so far.
|
|
|
|
Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!
In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.
Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?
Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom. By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things. Yea, it was not Florida, but Louisiana. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Yoshihiro_HattoriThe defendant (shooter) stated that japanese guy/boy was 'moving erratically' and did not "freeze". I guess, he did not know that it means "stop immediately". In the criminal trial-not guilty, in the civil, liable with $650K damages. |
|
|
|
Here is my 2c about that "purple" posts and shooting those who went past them.
In short, it is idiotic, imho.
Your idiot opinion has been noted. ...good luck... Fuck off you absolutely sheltered statist cuck. Ignored for stupidity beyond my ability to comprehend. Now...who is being triggered? Not the first time too. This is a thing with people like you. You can't tolerate a difference of opinion. Immediate regress into name calling, etc. Be well..ciao. |
|
|
|
Here is my 2c about that "purple" posts and shooting those who went past them.
In short, it is idiotic, imho.
Your idiot opinion has been noted. ... exquisite response to the triggerred liberal ... but pretty sure your purple-marked posts need to be some colour other than purple for the bottom 3-5 feet ... I can bring over a tin of black paint and a brush and we'll get to work painting your black bottoms? .... Or is it bottoms black? ..bring it over? well, well, well. Triggered? I don't really care...just somehow it became a dominant topic around here. Seems largely off topic to me. But, you can paint each other bottoms or tops in purple or black and maybe put on some fur hats and dance in a circle..it's mostly "free" country still. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
