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Market..running like a headless chicken (OMG, facebook...facebook)
Bitcoin: that funny Decaprio meme
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If there was no bubble, i am not sure why everybody expects 80-85% decline?
This is kind of awkward and does not make much sense to me.
Can we still go lower than 200wk average (~19K and rising)?
Yes, but only maybe in a war or general depression situation, imho.
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Here are some Fib recovery numbers that I got:
Considering an entirety of the down move from 69044 to 31951 (your numbers could be slightly different, but this is what i got), then Fib recovery numbers are:
$46128 for the 38.2% recovery
$54875 for the 61.8%
$61107 for the 78.6%
Above the latter number and at least an ATH retest. If the range is our destiny for 2022 and even a bit later, then, typically the advance would probably be somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8%, so $46-55K.
55K-61K-is a no man's land, but would be very optimistic, indeed. 50% recovery is NOT a Fib number, but it comes to $50.5K. IMHO, we might get to $46-60K, but would then turn back and oscillate for a while.
Politics, however, could change all this (providing either more downside or upside).
A murky picture, but at least those are the numbers I would pay attention to.
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@jjg:
1. stuck in the range we are.
2. you have no bitcoin (to speak of), since you did not take my generous 1.3(something) btc bet with 4:1 odds in your favor, so stfu about bets, like, forever.
3. FTFY
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Do we need a separate thread for discussing which topics should have a separate thread?
You should ask Biodome, he's the expert. skål |
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I feel like we glossed over the whole small mac idea and I am not comfortable with that.
Agree, but Biodome would just demand that we move the debate to another thread, so we had better let Chart Buddy just dominate the thread. kebab, kebab ( originally from biker youtube vid) YES to ChartBuddy, NO to ChartBuddy detractors...."We are all Buddy" Could you please move that to a separate thread, we don't want that kind of debate here. why don't you post something original for a change? |
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I feel like we glossed over the whole small mac idea and I am not comfortable with that.
Agree, but Biodome would just demand that we move the debate to another thread, so we had better let Chart Buddy just dominate the thread. kebab, kebab ( originally from the biker youtube vid) YES to ChartBuddy, NO to ChartBuddy detractors...."We are all Buddy" if a "small mac" would be introduced, you better copyright that idea pronto...btw, smallmac.com is "only $2.6K, smallmac.me is $6.99, smallmac.club $4.99 this list is my present to those who like domain squatting  hurry up |
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^ gawd, you are right, can someone branch russia/ukraine into another thread, please?
this is starting to dominate.
What is wrong with you people? every time an interesting debate starts here you want to silence it, why? would you rather have endless chart buddy posts? It's the various debates that makes this thread worth reading, so stop trying to move every interesting debate to a separate thread. Creating a separate thread for Covid debate was a big mistake, let's not make another one. I would rather you Biodome moved to another thread than poisoning this one with your constant fright of opinions. well, you want me to "bloody your nose" with my opinion instead? not going to oblige, but your desire for kitchen strategist thinking is noted. Maybe Greece should invade Sweden? They seem to be equally matched, lol discuss... |
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^ gawd, you are right, can someone branch russia/ukraine into another thread, please?
this is starting to dominate.
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 Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning  Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president. So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine? After all it is geography.... That area is Belarus, headed by Lukashenko, lol Belarus is independent, but closely aligned with Putin. I doubt any land "exchange" would occur there. |
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nobody put much stock in what presidential order/directive means? it's supposedly coming next week.
..regulate..regulate..regulate.
imho, if they do, it would be more of a "command and control" economy that we would like to admit.
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If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).
In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house or a house that was inherited.
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@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status. In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
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OT: A weird story: https://decrypt.co/91476/ethereum-vitalik-buterin-get-back-100m-donated-shibIs this some kind of game to them? I send you 10, you send me one back..lol VB is now a biotech adviser? maybe it is erroneously reported, but i find the whole story strange, to put it mildly. Before there was a story how he was doing that 'sending' using lots of precautions, but if you are sending to a truly burned address, why all the precautions? |
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On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.
I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA  You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine." Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart ActionBullish in the Long run. Whoaza!!!!!! That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness. I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish" (so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).
I do it for myself and for anyone who gives a shit, if you don't ignore it.
Just stop it with your hatred towards me in every post I do in this thread. Enough mate.
I repeat, I do it for myself, I post it for those who cares. If you don't, ignore it and move ahead.
Cheers.he/she meant it "lovingly"...if you did not notice, anyone with any kind of prediction is a "dweeb" to him/her. sure..post 'em (i like looking at TA, but almost never believe any of TA "predictions"), just don't do a random assortment (between 1k and 36K), stick to a particular theme. |
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^^^didn't somebody doxxed it as an Uphold wallet?
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Badly needed hopium:  Katie Wood Sees one Bitcoin worth 1.36 Millions in 2030, and here explains why. OT: I am DCAing into a couple of her favorite biotechs, but after seeing model 3 in person, i could not force myself to buy TSLA (big mistake, obviously). I very much like her thinking...too bad that WS is brutalizing her ETFs (she was a bit too successful). |
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Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.
Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back. Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts. Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-) sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ... But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far.. For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200 I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...? sucks to be me....  The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed. Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around. China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenuemaybe i am misunderstanding what you are saying, but there is plenty of evidence during 2014-2015 when difficulty was steadily rising and the price dropping until a couple of adjustment periods where difficulty started decreasing and miners started bowing out; then the price turned around and started gaining or at least not decreasing. |
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