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2581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 03:24:57 PM
I'm selling almost every day (DCA) to pay for our lake.

We started with regular cars, then lambos, now ranches and lakes...soon whole building blocks and/or villages, then islands, maybe asteroids, planets, stars, etc
  Grin

For me, Bitcoin has "bought" me the most important thing in the universe: time, and the peace of mind that I can survive and do anything I ever wanted to do, without having to work for it. My life is already full, no need for Lambos or lakes. I own two wonderful houses, one in the city, another in the countryside, right next to a beautiful beach. My car is 6 years old and in pristine condition. Frankly, sometimes I'm trying to think of what to buy, but I'm out of ideas...

tl;dr: The most important thing that Bitcoin can buy, is TIME! The time one needs to do the things that really matter (and these are almost never material, although most people have been conditioned/brainwashed to think they are).

Thank you, Bitcoin!

I dig that, but, come on, a land with a lake would be very nice.
I grew up in the urban area on water with lakes within 30min to 1hr drive-for me it is as good as it gets.
EDIT: funny, but bitcoin almost always goes up when I am asleep and all I see is the daily bearish trend.
I guess it means that Europe and Asia push it up and then WS push it down, either to accumulate or in rabid rage caused by btc success.
2582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 02:49:52 PM
I'm selling almost every day (DCA) to pay for our lake.

We started with regular cars, then lambos, now ranches and lakes...soon whole building blocks and/or villages, then islands, maybe asteroids, planets, stars, etc
  Grin
2583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 03:13:51 AM
Someone found a perfect btc trading strategy and created a software program to emulate it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/lwb34y/i_wrote_a_trading_algo_that_buys_btc_every_time/

ROTFLMAO
2584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2021, 07:48:26 PM
He's just another asshole wealthy elite who got kickbacks for slamming Bitcoin for years, in order to sway Average Joe away from investing in it.

FU, Kevin!

Yes, indeed.

The only question is whether the market that is dominated by assholes would remain the same market we love or it would become an "asshole market"?
Judging by today's bipolar trading, it does a little bit look like an asshole-driven market, just different assholes, maybe.
Before, we were shaking fists at Bitmex, now maybe WS arrogant nincompoops...I can barely stand all that bloviation.
2585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2021, 04:10:23 PM
"bla bla bla  ... All things considered, it’s time to clear the way for Bitcoin ETFs."  Grin
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-02/personal-finance-bitcoin-tips-scales-in-favor-of-a-u-s-etf

Will this be the year the first ETF is approved?

"Imagine how much more perilous a Bitcoin ETF will seem when the price climbs to $100,000 or more, and how much louder the clamor will be from investors ready to pile into an ETF when it’s finally available."

I guess the news for the ETF with a potential of trillions USD investments, on top of 100K+ price, will be quite a show to watch Wink


yea, they already approved ETFs which are absolutely terrible to investors: UNL, USO, FCG, the list goes on and on.
It would laughable if it wasn't sad to look at this value destruction.
2586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 07:33:54 PM

We might convert to Tesla CAGR of 60% after the 500K mark, then to 20% after the $2-3 mil mark, then 10% at $5mil, 2-5% at $10mil.
That's my hope anyway.
2587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 02:58:27 PM
Watching $48,500. If we go over that decisively, it seems the correction is over.

but but muh maths and sciences.. im not done panic buying yet!

Don't worry about math & science. They've been taken care of by the Proud Honey.

that's what i also thought at first (that it it is a female reference), but then i found this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre-Joseph_Proudhon

Basically, he is a "father" of individual and/or social anarchism.
Take is with whatever grain of salt, but this individual (with the same nick) has been on the btctalk for ages, which makes his comments most likely a satire.
However, Proudhon philosophy differs from the cypherpunks as explained by T. May.
2588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 04:21:34 AM

Another good point... There is no such a thing... (consider my attempt at eloquence)

It's simple projection. The Marxists think their ideas will bring about a perfect world (this time) so they think others must be aiming for the same thing rather than simply a better option.

Who are those marxists? lol
Wall street went all ga-ga for communist (and I assume marxist) China, which makes them the biggest marxists supporters of all.
Chinese make about 20% of the all imported goods in US ($451bil in 2019), all thanks to prior direct investment.
2589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 12:56:34 AM

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1365992969413746690

Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, this guy. Seriously. He's literally trying to now equate participants in Bitcoin with Communism or Socialism.

If I had a twitter account, I would seriously rip him a new one.  Angry

Why people even give a shit what he says or thinks is beyond me.

Pisses me off that people push the lie that libertarianism is utopian. So double fuck this guy.

WTF is Bitcoinism anyway?

I don't know bitcoinism, but WO-centrism is fine like a good red wine.
NT-maybe lost some money shorting bitcoin, lol
Right, if libertarianism is utopian, then what next-freedom is utopian as well?

BTW, NT thread contains this video, which is quite cool (a structure emerges from chaos)...enjoy:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1365667289157222406

next leg up takes us to 75-100k

and then...go on.
2590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 07:35:40 PM
......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.   Tongue Tongue

...
Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....



Very nice, this is kind of talk this guy seem to be engaged in lately.

ammirite? lol

PS. maybe this is caused by his apparently (self-indicated) large bank account. I cringe to think what would happen at 100K.
Probably something along the lines of "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas".
2591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 06:13:31 PM
@JJG, again, you have no clue about debt, seniority or debt covenants.
Either educate yourself or stop talking about s-t you have no clue about.
BTW, yes, I always try to play chess...it helps to generate "if..then" scenarios, especially when I am being chased by the bear...remember the relevant strategy?
2592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 06:05:57 PM
When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.
2593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 05:17:47 PM
I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.
2594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Twopenny Indicator on: February 28, 2021, 05:14:18 PM
Where s = log (usd per btc / $0.02)
and t = 0.093928 * sqrt (days elapsed since 2010-09-08)
The Twopenny Indicator = (s-t) * sqrt(s+t)
The blue trace is the daily closing bitcoin price run through the twopenny equation (named for the denominator of s).
The red traces are constant-dollar lines at $10.33, $463, $7642 and $81550.  These isovalue lines, which intersect the baseline at halvings, are cyclical price drivers.




it seems that we cross the line and go higher by >2.5X, but 3X<
With 81550 being the line cross, this puts us to 203-244K area, with the historical projected average of "multiplication" factor of 2.73X over the line, resulting in 222.6K.
If we shall use last peak multiplicator of 2.588, then the projection is 211K
In any case, this is quite bullish if it would pan out.
Awesome charts.
2595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 04:53:50 PM
I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

EDIT: BTW, I like those guys, but Saylor was chasing the price and E. Musk was clearly FOMO-ing, in a retrospect.
It most likely will still work out, but I hope that Saylor does not have some nasty conditions on this converts, especially the latest batch, bought at 52-53K.

Yes, overall you are seeming bullish Biodom, but you cannot help to get your little digs in, as if the actions of Saylor and Musk are not sustainable.,.

You are full of shit to be making those kinds of implications.


I reserve the right to make digs at anything I want, well, maybe not Satoshi.
That said, you do your little "buy down, sell up" things and I will do mine "whatever" strategy.

As far as Saylor-I don't know what nasty covenants debt-giving people put in there, but I can assure you that something is there.
Do you think that someone gives a guy $1 bil at 0% coupon and not have some "protection"? Lol
That said, check out MSTR long term chart-it might be instructive. Sometimes things don't exactly repeat themselves, but they sure do rhyme.
Finally, if btc suddenly goes to 100K, 200K, 300K, it's all for the better, but we don't want MS suddenly selling the last batch of his btc at, say, 33K if debt holders raise a demand that he does so, providing that they can.
I would be shocked if they don't have some "protection", though. After all, debt holders are in the senior position in any company structure.
2596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 04:39:54 PM
As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:



What is this?
Quote
Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit - Realized Loss

So we are basically looking at the difference between
Quote
Realized Profit denotes the total profit (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was lower than the price at the current movement.

And of course:
Quote
Realized Loss denotes the total loss (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than the price at the current movement.

This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market.
I think this time won’t be different.



Is this daily NUPL?
It looks like relative unrealized profit-loss is still high:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
However, it very well may be that we are in June 2017-like situation.
2597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 05:04:26 AM
I wonder why weekends are mostly bearish these days?
This would pass as well.

institutional
money does not know a thing,
who is surprised here?

Early "Sunday" #haiku.

EDIT: BTW, I like those guys, but Saylor was chasing the price and E. Musk was clearly FOMO-ing, in a retrospect.
It most likely will still work out, but I hope that Saylor does not have some nasty conditions on this converts, especially the latest batch, bought at 52-53K.


2598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2021, 01:25:34 AM
Another "critic" who will probably lose 60-70% (at least in buying power) pretty soon:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eager-told-paul-singer-warns-175541872.html
In fact, going short Buffett, Munger, Singer (golden oldies portfolios) would probably be a great trade soon, if it is not already.
2599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2021, 10:26:38 PM
If plants have no feelings, why do they respond and grow better with soothing jazz and classical music than with jarring rock, hiphop or EDM?


If plants have feelings and not some purely mechanical/bioelectrial reaction, then I hope that they are not getting mad at us like in "The Happening".
It's unlikely, though, as we are giving them more and more food (CO2).
2600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2021, 07:34:46 PM
Did I mention that GBTC went completely out of sync from btc?
Quite a discount. What a shit-stock.
I am reasonably sure Cathie is selling GBTC to bolster her declining empire (ARK) in other areas.
GBTC is a sell while BTCC is a buy in ret accounts, looks this way.
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