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55k$ or more by the end of this year is possible, but followed by a brutal bear market.
500k$ in 3 years, no chance. BTC may never truly recover from the next bear market, if it loses the first mover advantage.
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The pump started by crossing 1h MACD to positive and flipping 6h PSAR to bullish, but later also crossed 2h MACD and flipped 12h PSAR.
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What do you think? Are we headed lower and are only seeing a temporary “Dead Cat Bounce” or are we headed higher?
It depends where the market will find support over the next days. If it stays above 9200$, then a third leg up becomes probable and later a higher low (than 6000$), with bullish implications. Market still testing support, but some indicators are worsening. Nothing yet points to a lower low than ~6k$ on the Feb 6th. So far the cat doesn't look dead, it's more like a cat in ICU (intensive care unit). |
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Stop losses are more of an issue with altcoins and margin trading than with regular bitcoin which is very forgiving with tons of bounces. The biggest mistake in bitcoin trading is buying at the very bottom of a huge crash and then selling for a 5 or 10% profit while forfeiting the other 150%.
Touche!  |
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What do you think? Are we headed lower and are only seeing a temporary “Dead Cat Bounce” or are we headed higher?
It depends where the market will find support over the next days. If it stays above 9200$, then a third leg up becomes probable and later a higher low (than 6000$), with bullish implications. |
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So is there any chance to get back your money/BTC?
Can't login anymore at mtgox.com
Wait another ~15 days, the next creditor meeting should clarify if civil rehabilitation gets approved or not (bankruptcy goes on). The outcome may be known sooner, check the reddit mtgoxinsolvency in ~10 days. https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/Word on the rumour mill had it that Karpeles asked to get back the business since at the price of 4.5K each (or somewhere near that) Gox was solvent again. Plus, he keeps all the fork coins (!) and releases the rest to the users. I don't know if that was possible in the first place since he was convicted in Japan, but if it's like that then he's a rich SOB already...  It's not 4.5k$, but ~2.5k$. Above this price level all approved claims (which are in JPY) can be paid 100%, in case bankruptcy goes on. On reddit mtgoxinsolvency Karpeles wrote that he has no claim in MtGox, but I don't know if this is true. His position on the civil rehabilitation: https://blog.magicaltux.net/article/A-good-MtGox-civil-rehabilitation-plan |
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So is there any chance to get back your money/BTC?
Can't login anymore at mtgox.com
Wait another ~15 days, the next creditor meeting should clarify if civil rehabilitation gets approved or not (bankruptcy goes on). The outcome may be known sooner, check the reddit mtgoxinsolvency in ~10 days. https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/ |
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Anther leg down is a possibility, but maybe not so soon. IMO tomorrow it's going to be a decision time, between going straight down (doubt that) and pumping to about 10500$, then down.
LTC pumped on 12h MACD crossing but BTC not so much, 12h MACD still negative, pump may still happen when it will have a better chance to cross. |
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Anther leg down is a possibility, but maybe not so soon. IMO tomorrow it's going to be a decision time, between going straight down (doubt that) and pumping to about 10500$, then down.
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I am unsure about my cash flow rate in sMerit, so for now I am behaving like a cheapskate and only sending in 1 at a time, my apologies to all who deserved more. Once I'll understand how the cash flow in sMerit behaves, I promise to send more to those who deserve it.  |
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...
For it to be a wave 4 there has to be a 1, 2 and 3 though - i cant see how you could fit those to the price chart?
The 5 in your chart (below) is a 3 in a larger count. IMO we had a shallow A, strong B (the market hoped to continue the bull trend) and now a deep C. This ABC is IMO the wave 4.  |
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There's not enough information yet for me to draw what I believe will happen. I'd like first to see the local bottom confirmed with a bullish
double bottom in 30min - 1h - 2h MACD, since the current chart has bearish double bottoms. This could happen tonight or tomorrow.
About how the wave 5 will look, well... it will start with a wave 1, which will be hard to distinguish from a bear market at first.
Weekly MACD could drop into negative if the recovery will be slow and people may panic sell and test support on high volume several times.
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New prediction by sgbett: 2483$ bottom on 19th Feb 2021. At first I wanted to offer you a digital hug, but I strongly disagree with both price and time targets.
So far we have no reason to believe that this correction is not a wave 4, and these wave 4s tend to be shorter in bitcoin (I'm looking forward to the wave 5).
IMO only a long period of bad news can lead us to a Feb 2021 bottom (without a new ATH in between, something like 70k$ in 2019).
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I'm so sorry for this horrible thread.
Hypocrite... You are not sorry at all, you are gloating!  I'd like to read your opinion on the final bottom, I believe it's not this one, but could take 1 - 2 more months. |
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So I'm shorting XRP, LTC, BTG, BCH, ETH, EOS, XMR, IOTA, and OMG on bitfinex. Unfortunately only a total of 9k. Up a lot (10% to 39%), but lost far more on my 5 remaining BTC.
Bitcoin dominance is at 36%. It should hit at least 40% if not 45% - as we continue to bear down.
I wouldn't short so close to a local bottom, especially not XMR and LTC. Be careful... |
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Also, in the event of a large dump, the 3 day MACD would cross into negative, and this would mean that the recovery will take longer. I still doubt any dump below 6k$.
3 day MACD went into negative, and we almost reached 6k$. But this is not the final bottom, IMO there's at least another high volume dump until there, probably two. And it's going to take some time and a strong rebound until the next high volume dumps, probably good for trading. Sgbett's prediction of 4100$ doesn't sound so far fetched anymore. Remember to buy when there will be blood on the streets, even if it's going to be your own. |
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A local bottom might be reached in 4 - 6 hours from now, so it might be a good entry for a short term trade.
Looks like a local bottom to me, but it went a bit lower than I expected. Surprisingly, the bulls were weak, and the market might drop a bit lower before a true local bottom. This is unsettling, I usually am wrong the other way... |
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Apparently there was much more air in the price than suspected, but it ain’t over yet. Prices never move in straight lines, and the Weekly chart is in some serious oversold territory Weekly in serious oversold territory? I don't think so, not yet anyway. Weekly was IMO oversold only from October 2014 to January 2015. |
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