Analysis

[somac.]

I notice he says "The critical level at 7700 does not really matter anymore, because I see that the wave is over."

I'm guessing this means that the 7700 level is unimportant now because it has been hit, meaning that wave 3 confirmed over (also meaning that 7700 was not meant to be the bottom, but just end of wave 3). If this is the case, I presume he means that it can go lower now, and it doesn't mean anything because we are already in wave 4.

I imagine the posts we should now be waiting for are when he thinks wave 4 will end, and at what price point it will end.

Does that sound right to anyone?

[1714788901]

1714788901

[1714788901]

1714788901

[Mhz_evadah]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

[somac.]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

[Mhz_evadah]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

Does anyone else have any further analysis from where ENKY's analysis stopped, that's if they agree with it. Or do they have a contrary one, because it would seem this bearish trend isn't going away anytime soon?

[somac.]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

Does anyone else have any further analysis from where ENKY's analysis stopped, that's if they agree with it. Or do they have a contrary one, because it would seem this bearish trend isn't going away anytime soon?

it does seem that way. I think ENKY will post again, but, might be a while, he said he was busy in one of his last comments.

[MrBigHang]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

Does anyone else have any further analysis from where ENKY's analysis stopped, that's if they agree with it. Or do they have a contrary one, because it would seem this bearish trend isn't going away anytime soon?

it does seem that way. I think ENKY will post again, but, might be a while, he said he was busy in one of his last comments.

Where does Enky post at besides his website?

[somac.]

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows...

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

Does anyone else have any further analysis from where ENKY's analysis stopped, that's if they agree with it. Or do they have a contrary one, because it would seem this bearish trend isn't going away anytime soon?

it does seem that way. I think ENKY will post again, but, might be a while, he said he was busy in one of his last comments.

Where does Enky post at besides his website?

No idea, I figured it was just his website

[Millionero]

Now for a little lighthearted fun in this trying time.
The old man Vanga posted the picture of is a retired electrical engineer in Hungary with a big Russian fan base.
In English his meme name is "Hide the Pain Harold."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z04WcR1KIY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHVJD7k1km8

[abedit]

Where does Enky post at besides his website?

See Enky's blogpost his Jan 18 blogpost here: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/
On the comments to his post, he replies on Feb 1 to one of the posted questions:
Bearish Scenario is in place with today drop, if there is a repetition of 2013-2015 beark market the support area might be the one from 4300 to 5800, check my twitter profile to see the chart.

He also says that he plans to post his BTC analysis when possible.

His twitter profile is here: https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Trading
He also confirms there that he'll plan on continuing his BTC analysis.

[gentlemand]

Ah well. If Mr Luc's chart does fail at least that'll stop it being posted absolutely everywhere by every optimist out there. It was starting to look more familiar than my own face.

[exstasie]

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before.

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter.

[TeeBone]

So, the master was wrong. Shit happens.

[Wekkel]

Apparently there was much more air in the price than suspected, but it ain’t over yet. Prices never move in straight lines, and the Weekly chart is in some serious oversold territory 

[Tzupy]

Apparently there was much more air in the price than suspected, but it ain’t over yet. Prices never move in straight lines, and the Weekly chart is in some serious oversold territory 

Weekly in serious oversold territory? I don't think so, not yet anyway. Weekly was IMO oversold only from October 2014 to January 2015.

[Bitcoinaire]

The latest:

"Trump changed his granny. Grandma farewelled the American stock market bubble and then turn everything around ...

Wall Street drags down Bitcoin heavily. We observe what will happen from this."





https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[MrBigHang]

I really do not know where to fall further. There's a wild support. Weekly MA20, daytime MA200, Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of all annual growth, historical trend lines ... In general, all this should bounce off. When drains

let you go ... Here you are, the merchant traders. The reverse side of the ETF is yours. Let them do it .... I expected a general decrease in volatility when all this was beginning to be predicted. And it is - that's what it is Mihalych.

New post.  He doesn't know how low we can go.  Also, if someone is good with Russian, I'd like a better translation.  Direct translation can be iffy.

[Biodom]

I really do not know where to fall further. There's a wild support. Weekly MA20, daytime MA200, Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of all annual growth, historical trend lines ... In general, all this should bounce off. When drains

let you go ... Here you are, the merchant traders. The reverse side of the ETF is yours. Let them do it .... I expected a general decrease in volatility when all this was beginning to be predicted. And it is - that's what it is Mihalych.

New post.  He doesn't know how low we can go.  Also, if someone is good with Russian, I'd like a better translation.  Direct translation can be iffy.

This thread just became mostly irrelevant anyway.
#1 he was wrong, at least tactically
#2 see #1
#3 that post has no relevant info, hence, don't worry about translation. He basically says that everything got broken.
$4 the key is not in this post, but in the other post/comment where he says that so much damage was done that it would take loooong time to repair.

My conclusion: We are in the bear market of unknown duration, structure, etc. As i said before, maybe it is similar to Amazon or AAPL from 1999-2001 (AMZN) or 2002 (AAPL). Survive a year or a couple of years of pure brutality, then enjoy yourself for the next 20. That's how I intend to play it.

[Bitcoinaire]

Here he answers in the comments:

"Q: Bitcoin Vanga., That is, after all, bearish trend for a couple of years as in 2014?

A: Paul, yes, I think some kind of huita. For a long time we will recover from the shock."

[mike4001]

Wasn't he the guy who said a couple of days ago we would never see 4 digits again ..

lol

[Mhz_evadah]

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before.

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter.

This will go down in history as one of the most outstanding moments in crypto market, where the mighty falls dragging on its quests. If and when this market recovers, the market should prepare for a more bullish trend especially from new adopters.

However, like its commonly said 'brace for impact' as it would seem BTC hasn't touch down yet.