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261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2014, 05:21:41 PM
So through in a gag order and this could have happened to Gox, I'm sure lots of silk road money was in Gox's bank.

Of course this has happened to Gox, it is all public information - Department of Home Security seized a Gox account holding $5M in customers funds, Gox lists those $5M in the "assets" part in their bankrupcy protection filing.

If they were compliant, meaning that every customer had a single and separate bank account, that wouldn't have happened - because LEGALLY it would have been customers money, each customers would have held its OWN money in a separate bank account, and it wouldn't have been "Gox money", arbitrarily seizable by LE at the first sign of suspicious activity. The problem here is that getting a banking license costs DOZENS of millions + years of burocracy, and getting an established bank to become your partner by taking full responsibility as Fidor does with Bitcoin.de is no easy job at this stage - hopefully it will become easier in the near future.
262  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2014, 05:02:50 PM
Kraken is also well known to be fully compliant and extremely careful about that (and about security) so I guess this model is possible too right ?

Kraken is well known to have made a huge marketing effort to make people believe they are compliant. The reality is that they just have two banks accounts:

1) OPERATIONAL EXPENSES ACCOUNT (this is where the money to pay for company's expenses sit)
2) DEPOSITS ACCOUNT (this is where customer's money sit)

They say the never mix the funds, which is better from a practical POV (Bitstamp mixes everything on a single account, which is simply suicidal), but legally it is exactly the same as having a single bank account: both accounts are ON KRAKEN'S NAME, which means that if regulators need to go after a Kraken customer, they will just freeze the whole account because legally it is a property of Kraken. They do not have a banking license and when they are questioned about HOW can they say they are compliant if they are not compliant with the european Directive for Payment Services, they respond with a vague "we are operating under Fidor's banking license" which is NOT true - Fidor has no responsibility on none of their accounts, in fact they are "lending" their banking license to Bitcoin.de but NOT to Kraken.

As per Bitcoin.de legal disclaimer:

Quote
Notice pursuant to § 2 Section 10 of the Banking Act:

The Bitcoin Deutschland AG is acting as tied agent of the FIDOR Bank AG within the meaning of § 2 Section 10 of the Banking Act and provides the system or the completion of financial instruments in accordance with §1 Section 1a Sentence 2 No. 1 und No. 2 of the Banking Act exclusively in the name and for the account of the FIDOR Bank AG.

Now read the aforementioned sections of the Banking Act and you will see that it is very clear: if you are a financial intermediary/investment broker, etc. (which means holding/managing funds on behalf of third parties) you need to be either a bank, or a tied agent of a bank, which means that the bank is supervising and controlling the customers funds, which are NOT sitting on an account on your name. This is true for Bitcoin.de, NOT true for Kraken. Kraken is NOT a tied agent of Fidor, if they were they would NEED to state that clearly on their ToS. Fidor has no control nor supervision on neither of Kraken's accounts, you can call them and ask yourself (and then ask the same question on Bitcoin.de to see the difference).

263  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2014, 04:43:17 PM

I get the Idea of how brokers work, but an Exchange dealing with Bitcoin is simply acting an Escrow while brokers have a different business model than a Bitcoin exchange.

Stock exchanges are not designed for everyone, but Bitcoin is designed to be widely used for normal users who wont go through the hassle of opening an account and linking it to an exchange just to buy a bitcoin.

coinbase operates the same way as you described above, but coinbase without an exchanges like Bitstamp wont be possible, unless the adoption of Bitcoin by merchants and their daily transaction volume becomes equal to the need of users to buy/sell.

Believe me if I tell you that I did a thorough due diligence on the matter and I've received formal replies from financial regulators on more than one EU country: Bitstamp is absolutely non compliant under EU regulations, I can guarantee you that.

Coinbase is a completely different business: they are not an "exchange", they are a "bureau de change" (like the one in which you exchange currency at the airport): the main difference is that when you are buying or selling on Coinbase your legal counterpart is Coinbase itself, and NOT another customer like it happens on Bitstamp, Kraken, etc.. When you are sending money to Coinbase from a legal POV you are transacting with Coinbase itself, they are not holding the money on your behalf while you transact with another customer - the reason they are operating that way and NOT as an exchange of the kind of Bitstamp (which is much more profitable revenue wise) is PRECISELY because they are a serious company and they know they cannot do that - at least currently, as having a banking license (as it IS required for a trading exchangr as per Bitstamp) is not only expensive but very lengthy as the barriers for newcomers are high.

If you read carefully the ToS of the emerging exchanges you will see hints of what I'm saying: the new one based on the UK is registered as a "bureau de change" in a Coinbase fashion precisely to avoid to adquire a banking license; the one just launched in Mexico says clearly that by sending them money you are adquiring their own virtual currency, which only purpose is to buy and sell cryptos, and that they DO NOT HOLD customer deposits (because from a legal POV you are buying their own "virtual currency" by wiring them money) - those are just tricks to try to avoid the hard cold truth, which is that you need to be a bank to hold deposits on behalf of third parties.

About the escrow: I've never looked into that business model, but I approached regulators explaining them EXACTLY how a Bitcoin exchange work and they have told me that under the PSP (payment service provider) / financial intermediaries EU regulation I needed to either have a banking license or to have a banking partner holding, controlling and supervising all customer deposits (because that money is not YOURS, it belongs to your customer). While I'm ignorant on that aspect, at this stage I'd bet that an escrow would need to comply with the same regulation, as they are acting as financial intermediaries by holding funds that do not belong to them.



264  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: April 14, 2014, 04:22:00 PM
The only way to have Armory working with Tor is to have listen=1 on bitcoin.conf, or to start bitcoin with the -listen=1 argument, right?

265  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2014, 04:08:46 PM

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.


"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

The local unicredit Branch employees are Bitcoin bulls, I know few of them personally, but this doesn't represent the big picture of what Unicredit Bank as a corporate thinks about Bitcoin which is unknown for me...

I'm sure they are, I suspect the Bitstamp account brings in quite a nice bit of revenue and fees.

But that's not the point, right? We were assigning probabilities to events, pulled out of our asses, but motivated by our experience and expectations. And my experience and expectation is that the banking interface is a fragile one, that could break. Not likely, so I personally don't see more than a, say, 5% chance that it happens, but "sub 1%" is another way of saying it's nigh impossible, and that I disagree with.

I agree, I was just pointing out that Banks are aware of Bitcoin, and when we say Banks we are not talking about computers and buildings but about people and employees running/working in these banks.


yet, I share the fear with many of you, if something somehow happen to an exchange's Banking account, basically only people who have funds there are fucked, but if anything happens to the bank (just look to the new EU Bank bailing road-map) than not only Exchanges are fucked but pretty much everyone living in EU and the ones who didn't even hear about Bitcoin will be the most effected.

if I summarize the situation, what is happening in the world right now doesn't look so promising, and having fiat sitting in your bank account is not safer than having Bitcoin sitting in your wallet, even when considering a scenario when an exchange like Bitstamp gets fucked up by its bank, the consequences will be temporary comparing with what could go wrong if something similar happens with the EU banking system.



The fact is that an exchange commingling all their customers funds in one single bank account is simply non-compliant, and even illegal in most of the EU.

Just check how brokers work: you need to open a bank account UNDER YOUR NAME on a certain bank, and give the broker an authorization to operate with your account for this or that purpose - but customers funds are never commingled, each customer has his own separate bank account.

Bitcoin exchanges (apart from B-C afaik) do not operate that way (not even Kraken), exposing customers to a huge risk. It just takes one rotten seed (eg, a drug dealer) operating in exchange X and the only option LE has is to freeze the full account - that's why you cannot take customers deposits* in the EU if you are not a bank.

*deposit = holding funds on behalf of a third party - those funds are NOT legally yours, you are just holding them on behalf of your customer - that's what banks and only banks do.
266  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2014, 04:02:13 PM

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.


"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?

That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).

EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.

There's definitely a good chance of that happening, as Bitstamp is operating with a corporate account - exactly the same type of account that you would have to receive payments for selling goods or services, the type of account in which you can commingle funds because they are legally yours as soon as you get them - but as Bitstamp is not selling goods or services but acting as a financial intermediary you can see clearly how they are non-compliant with EU regulation regarding PSP (payment services providers) and other financial intermediaries. They either need to have a banking license (lengthy and extremely expensive process) or to operate under the banking license of a banking partner (not easy because the bank would have full responsibility on customer funds - Fidor is doing that for Bitcoin.de as you can see on Bitcoin.de's disclaimer, while Unicredit is definitely NOT doing that for Bitstamp).

All in all, what davout (founder of Bitcoin Central) is saying HERE is definitely right, I can guarantee you that as I've made my own thorough due diligence with regulators in more than one EU country. Truth is Bitcoin Central is *mostly* compliant, as they are using a banking partner that opens one separate bank account for each one of their customers - that's the way to go, otherways as soon as regulators needs to fine you, or to freeze a certain amount of money because of suspicious activity, they will have to freeze all customers funds as they sit on a single bank account that is legally property of the exchange and not of the customers themselves.

Bitstamp either becomes compliant or it gets sold to a big fish that will make it compliant or it will be shut down eventually. Probably they have made enough millions to become a bank, but saying that there is less than 1% chance for them to be shut down is simply delusional.

267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 10:49:56 AM
Bitstamp stuff are behaving a little bit strange :

https://twitter.com/Bitstamp/status/454601576007864320




mmmm so Why ? they never did that before !!!
It's highly concerning that apparently Bitstamp is showing willingness to manipulate the market given the role they play., because we don't know if there is any real foul play behind the scenes. MtGox once did the same with a similar statement in a press release. I deemed them somewhat more professional than MtGox, but perhaps I was wrong.

At least MtGox have stated that they would disallow their employees from insider trading, but I have not heard anything like that from Bitstamp.

You can bet your hat there was a huge amount of "insider trading" on Gox, and that currently that's happening on Bitstamp too.

Do not forget people running those service are a bunch of amateurs (at best), which are not compliant with current financial regulations - to operate as an exchange in the EU you need to have a banking license, in most of the US states you need to be registered as a MSB, etc. - Bitstamp is operating with a SINGLE corporate account where they mix all customers funds, and probably their own too. Taking deposits without a banking license is illegal in the EU, and it is also very dangerous for the customers: if ONE Bitstamp customer is investigated the relevant authority will have no other option that to freeze the ONLY bank account Bitstamp has, de facto screwing up all their customers. That wouldn't happen if they were compliant and thus acting as a bank, setting up a separate fiat account for each one of their customers.

From a legal point of view, currently Bitstamp is the sole owner of the corporate account in which customers are depositing their trading funds, which is very bad for their customers and totally non-compliant, as customers are not exchanging their money for a service but DEPOSITING it in order to trade with each other.

You can bet Bitstamp knows this very well, and yet they continue to operate because the risk is worth it - you can bet they are ready to take other kinds of risks too as per "insider trading".

That said, while operating an exchange without a banking license (or a banking partner providing that license as Fidor Bank does for bitcoin.de, which from a legal POV is just a tied agent of Fidor) is illegal/non-compliant in the EU, Bitstamp is not giving a shit about that fact risking all their customer funds to LE or regulators, I bet the apply the same standard for other dangerous practices.

We are still in the wild west, folks... But probably not for too long.
268  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Can Bitcoin Core be compromised by Heartbleed - are private keys exposed? - How? on: April 11, 2014, 08:30:59 AM
Wumpus, Gregory, Gavin: Thank you very much for your efforts. You are all doing a GREAT job, it has to be said!
269  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Core (Bitcoin-Qt) 0.9.1 released - update required on: April 09, 2014, 11:02:31 AM
Could somebody describe how the attack would work when somebody had been using Bitcoin Core 0.9.0 and clicked on a "bitcoin:" link?

Would the wallet be considered compromised even if I generated the "bitcoin:" link myself and clicked it just to see how the new payment function worked? In that case, how the private keys would have been exposed?

Would the wallet be considered compromised if I clicked on a "bitcoin:" link but didn't go through the payment, and thus I did not sign any transaction?

I just cannot wrap my head around it yet.

+1
I would like to know this as well

I've opened a dedicated thread in Technical Discussion for this purpose.
270  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Can Bitcoin Core be compromised by Heartbleed - are private keys exposed? - How? on: April 09, 2014, 10:51:24 AM
Some questions about Heartbleed and Bitcoin Core:

  • Could somebody describe how the attack would work if somebody had been using Bitcoin Core 0.9.0 and clicked on a "bitcoin:" link?
  • Could the private keys be compromised even if I generated the "bitcoin:" link myself and clicked it just to see how the new payment function worked?
  • In that case, how the private keys would have been exposed? Because of a MITM? How would it work?
  • Would the wallet be considered compromised if I clicked on a "bitcoin:" link but didn't go through the payment, and thus I did not sign any transaction?

I just cannot wrap my head around it yet.
271  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Core (Bitcoin-Qt) 0.9.1 released - update required on: April 09, 2014, 08:05:45 AM
Could somebody describe how the attack would work when somebody had been using Bitcoin Core 0.9.0 and clicked on a "bitcoin:" link? Would the wallet be considered compromised even if I generated the "bitcoin:" link myself and clicked it just to see how the new payment function worked? In that case, how the private keys would have been exposed?

I just cannot wrap my head around it yet.
In this case, the risk is only if you were MITM'd...

But who could have MITM'd me? A malicious node? How can my priv keys be exposed just by clicking a "bitcoin:" link that I generated myself, especially if I did not go through the transaction and thus I didn't sign and broadcasted it?
272  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Core (Bitcoin-Qt) 0.9.1 released - update required on: April 09, 2014, 08:02:28 AM
Could somebody describe how the attack would work when somebody had been using Bitcoin Core 0.9.0 and clicked on a "bitcoin:" link?

Would the wallet be considered compromised even if I generated the "bitcoin:" link myself and clicked it just to see how the new payment function worked? In that case, how the private keys would have been exposed?

Would the wallet be considered compromised if I clicked on a "bitcoin:" link but didn't go through the payment, and thus I did not sign any transaction?

I just cannot wrap my head around it yet.
273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin core updated to 0.9.1 on: April 08, 2014, 10:45:46 PM
Do you use SSL for remote RPC calls to your bitcoind daemon?  No.  Then it doesn't affect you even if you use Bitcoin-Core (the client formerly known as Bitcoin-QT). 

FYI:

If you are using the graphical version of 0.9.0 on any platform, you must update immediately. Download here. If you can't update immediately, shut down Bitcoin until you can. If you ever used the payment protocol (you clicked a bitcoin: link and saw a green box in Bitcoin Core's send dialog), then you should consider your wallet to be compromised. Carefully generate an entirely new wallet (not just a new address) and send all of your bitcoins there. Do not delete your old wallet.
- If you are using any other version of Bitcoin-Qt/Bitcoin Core, including bitcoind 0.9.0, you are vulnerable only if the rpcssl command-line option is set. If it is not, then no immediate action is required. If it is, and if an attacker could have possibly communicated with the RPC port, then you should consider your wallet to be compromised.

This vulnerability is caused by a critical bug in the OpenSSL library used by Bitcoin Core. Successfully attacking Bitcoin Core by means of this bug seems to be difficult in most cases, and it seems at this point that even successful attacks may be limited, but I recommend taking the above actions just in case.

If you are using a binary version of Bitcoin Core obtained from bitcoin.org or SourceForge, then updating your system's version of OpenSSL will not help. OpenSSL is packaged with the binary on all platforms.

Download 0.9.1
Announcement

Other software (including other wallet software) may also be affected by this bug. OpenSSL is extremely common.
274  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin core updated to 0.9.1 on: April 08, 2014, 10:34:14 PM
I'm going to transfer all my bitcoin to an online account just in case  Sad

I hope you are joking.
275  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin Creator (Charlie Lee) Recommends Merged Mining with Dogecoin on: April 08, 2014, 04:29:40 PM
You all seem to forget the ONLY reason for the existence of Litecoin (and all the other Scrypt coins, BTW) is that it uses a different hashing algo that was supposed to be ASIC resistant.

incorrect initially it was designed for gpu resistance. also other (be it slight) improvements over btc.

CPU or GPU is pretty much the same, as they are both "commodity hardware" which has multiple uses besides cryptocurrency mining. The theoretical problem that pose ASICs is that we will probably reach a point in which very few players (chip manufacturers) will monopolize the mining scene, which would mean that Bitcoin is centralized de facto.

Please let me know what other improvements over BTC you are talking about.
276  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin Creator (Charlie Lee) Recommends Merged Mining with Dogecoin on: April 08, 2014, 11:20:36 AM
You all seem to forget the ONLY reason for the existence of Litecoin (and all the other Scrypt coins, BTW) is that it uses a different hashing algo that was supposed to be ASIC resistant.

Now Scrypt ASICs are coming and Scrypt coin developers do not give a shit, they do not even think about forking their creations to change the hashing algo, they just want to keep milking their very own cash-cow.

Serious questions: what is the value proposal of Litecoin now that it will have ASICs? What is the innovation? Why Litecoin should be considered a valid alternative/complement to BTC?








Disclaimer: I own a substantial amount of LTC.
277  Economy / Exchanges / Re: www.BITSTAMP.net Bitcoin exchange site for USD/BTC on: April 08, 2014, 09:52:23 AM
please retry. Reports it as ok now.

Reports it as vulnerable here.

Same here. Still vulnerable.
278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2014, 06:08:18 PM
The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

You only have fear when you are close to the very bottom. Those who feel euphoria or fear always lose, because they buy near the top and sell near the bottom.

Just buy when this forum is bloated by FUD-spreader trolls, and sell when the thread is completely bloated by train pictures.

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. If we really go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

I'm more of an "It's always darkest before it goes pitch black" kind of guy. I have many times more coins in cold storage so I'm using my trading account as a hedge right now. Worse thing that can happen to me is that I'm stuck with tens of thousands in fiat while my main stash rockets up in value. I think I can live with that. Locking in profit on coins I bought in two digits may be a fear move, but it's the smart play. How many people with much much more BTC than me have to do the same thing for price to crater? Not Many.

I would advise you to take the profits during uptrends and following a rational plan (when we will hit this price I will sell x% of my stash, etc.) - I hate stating the obvious, but I'd avoid selling during dowtrends and buying during uptrends.
279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2014, 06:01:37 PM
I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

Because of its design Bitcoin won't be able to support real-world payment volume if the price per coin is not high, thus pure speculation (which currently amounts to 99% of the BTC transactions) is just making it easier for companies like Square to adopt it. In fact, the wild speculation on Bitcoin's future price is precisely what is making the price to reach quickly a level that makes it possible for bitcoin to support a real economy transaction volume.

Bitcoin has everything to change the world, quickly: it is a huge innovation that solves real life problems and has numerous applications apart from being "digital cash", and it has also built-in a huge financial incentive that makes its adoption to go viral - nothing speeds adoption faster than the promise of future wealth.
280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 07, 2014, 05:44:24 PM
The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

You only have fear when you are close to the very bottom. Those who feel euphoria or fear always lose, because they buy near the top and sell near the bottom.

Just buy when this forum is bloated by FUD-spreader trolls, and sell when the thread is completely bloated by train pictures.

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. Given the fact that I bought most of my bitcoins in the $10 to $20 range, buying a little more at $450 or $370 is not really affecting much my average buy-in price. In fact I'm just buying back aprox. the same amount of bitcoins I sold in the $700 to $900 range, which is just the course of action I had in mi mind when I sold.

If we go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

EDITED (some grammar + additions)
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