hi all. want to get into mining using fpga and look forward to discussing it
Although mining with FPGAs is much more efficient than mining with GPUs, there is also a larger startup cost. Currently, we are on target for a block subsidy halving from 50BTC to 25BTC on December 13, 2012 (actual date may be between 2012-12-06 to 2012-12-20). If you can earn back the startup cost through the FPGA mining, then this is a great oppertunity! Otherwise, proceed on this path only if you believe bitcoin will explode in the coming year. |
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I don't think we have bears and bulls on this forum anymore. The bulls were turned into "another bubble" and the bears were turned into "price won't go up" (as opposed to "price will go down").au contraire. most of the large geek holders of btc already coughed up all their btc on the way down not understanding the fundamental dynamics of what they had created. these have now moved into more strategic non techie investors who will not be shaken out of their positions easily on the way up.
Even many of us 'smart' folk still are failing to understand what we have created, so what hope is there for the meatheads? I know "smart" is in scary quotes here, but we, as a community, are not any smarter than the general populace. Calling them meatheads is hardly appropriate when half the board can't comprehend simple speeling, sYntax, grammars and: punctuation.
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We have virtually no risk.
The market doesn't slip every 5 seconds. And during most of the violent moves previously, we received no or only a few orders. The high volume was always generated after the violent moves.
Now thankfully, Zhoutong, you seem to have the risks of slippage covered as explained above this quote, but your reasoning in this quote is flawed. Never _ever_ think something is not going to happen because it hasn't happened before. Always expect the worst and then some. This applies to anything, not just slippage risks. If you haven't made simulations in which there was heavy trading _during_ price movements, you should! Even though I don't have any practical experience to prove this (because it never happened before), I do have theoretical consideration. The main problem of any system with guaranteed liquidity is adverse selection. We are exposed to the systematic risk of customers trading only when they have opportunities to take advantage of price differences. A similar example is exchange quotation. TradeHill gives users 5 seconds to confirm a Instant trade quotation. But since there's no cost to get a quotation, theoretically there's one possibility: a user gets a quote every 5 seconds, and confirm only when there's huge slippage. What I have done here is to delay all order execution by 1-4 seconds. This makes sure that when you click Buy/Sell button exactly during the slippage, the actual execution will happen after the major price move. And this is still considered as "guaranteed liquidity" because we update prices globally, not just for individual pending orders. Mushoz: can u translate this? It means he is protecting himself against slippage due to random moves by using spreads, but the biggest risk is people trying to exploit slippage. Let's say the price is at 4$ on Mtgox and suddenly a spikes causes it to go down to 3.60. Someone wanting to exploit slippage could quickly sell at Bitcoinica, where the prices wouldn't have been updated yet. That's what the 1-4 second order execution delay is for. It allows the price on Bitcoinica to catch up to the market price, so that people aren't able to exploit slippage. what if the spike comes at exactly 4 sec after the customer pushes his button? what if a series of ramps occur? i know, i know; he says he only executes 50 BTC at a time but in his explanation above he says 50, 100, sometimes 150 BTC. which is it? If the spike comes exactly 4 seconds after order placement, we can be sure that the customer was not intending to exploit the spike because no one actually knew. So it can be 0, or 50. 100 and 150 are possibilities when multiple customers place order at the same time, and it's extremely rare. what if i'm the one who pushes the button on Bitcoinica, counts off 4 sec, and pushes the button on mtgox creating the spike? Then you would have lost a lot of money creating a sizable spike, would you not? |
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We are on a mammoth upswing right now. Many people who use technical analysis are assuming that the indicators are pointing to a strong rise and further increase. The period of time between May 1 and July 31 is detailed below:  As you can no doubt see, all indicators (and volume) turned massively up before the giant crash. The current market situation is simulating the period of time before that. We have not yet reached the point where all indicators are hard up, and there is still no sign of an impending top, or at least not one yet. The sample size of the "indicators turn to bubbles" is 1, so don't take too much out of this analysis. However, I would advise caution for anyone with a long position if the indicators continue pointing towards strong, rapid, gains, and if volume increases dramatically. Some members of the bitcointalk forum propose a correction to the rally; if this occurs, it will remove any immediate threat of a bubble. As a footnote, notice that the NVI is not very useful when applied to the 2011 bubble. It is included here because it has been consistantly high the period of time before the 2011 bubble, and if our NVI continues the uptrend further bubble development is possible. |
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BTW, on the Thank You page "receive" is spelt wrong. "Recieve" is such common usage it should be an alternate spelling, but none of my dictionaries recognize that.
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Hi ,
Im logged in for more than four hours, posted more than 16 times.
How come i cant use other sections ?
I dont see a reply or post new topic....
It can take a while for the database to update. I see you are Jr. Member now. Hi ,
Im logged in for more than four hours, posted more than 16 times.
How come i cant use other sections ?
I dont see a reply or post new topic....
Moderators are taking a coffee break? Could be they are throwing another GPU on their miners to counteract the looking increase in difficulty. Or maybe they decided to stop checking noob post counts for a while to jerk our chains a little bit(coin).  - Zed Well then it's a good thing the process is automated then, now is it? |
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February 5, 2012 or 2012‐02‐05.
Yeah, I'm not very optimistic right now. The rally looks like it's another unsustainable one.
BTW: Lock the thread when voting closes so people can't edit their post.
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Reserving 2012-01-12 (January 12, 2012) Edit: Whoops, killed by the post above me. January 12 is my new guess. AFAIK,
1/2/2012 is the 2nd of January, but
1.2.2012 is the 1st of February.
Can you bring an example of a country, where 1/2/2012 means the 1st of February?
1/2/2012 is 2 January in the United States and 1 February in Europe, Latin America, Middle East, though everyone should be confused. 1.2.2012 would be 1 February most everywhere, though North Americans might be confused. I have never come across mm.dd.yyyy anywhere in the world. Generally it is only the United States (and its minor influence in Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Canada) that uses a dyslexic (mixed endian) system, where the /-slash is near universally used. Europe, Mid East, Latin America and some of Asia use little endian, with just about any delimiter (., /, -, 年, 月) though big endian is more common in Asia. Only a four digit year would clarify the order. I've seen some mixed delimiters, such as 22/12-2011, in Germany and nordic countries, or roman numeral months in central Europe, but it is always little endian, unless the delimiter glyph represent the month, year, such as in Chinese 2011年12月22日. Generally, the / is completely ambiguous and should be avoided. Both . and - denote little endian or big endian and should contain a four digit year. I personally suggest big endian, four digit year, and abbreviated month for least ambiguity and maximum clarity, such as 2011-DEC-22. xx/xx/xxxx is DD/MM/YYYY format in Canada, though generally common usage is YYYY-MM-DD or MONTH DD, YYYY here. This is especially true when the xx/xx/xxxx format isn't obvious, because of US influence. 01/02/2011 is February 1 here though, and it can get confusing if you even get close to the states. Unfortunately, there is also another very confusing format that is used by lazier people: DD/MM/YY (05/12/11 for example) and YY/DD/MM (11/05/12). Things can get very confusing if YY/MM/DD (rare - I haven't seen this) or MM/DD/YY (only in the US AFAIK) get mixed in. These so-called "lazy date formats" primarily use slashes, which I perceive as being introduced from the states - even though our formats are incompatible with theirs. Dates are confusing! (on another note, I only realized the MM/DD/YYYY format existed a few years ago. That means I seem to meet the definition of the stereotypical ignorant American.) |
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I believe changing username is a feature reserved for donators.
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Why lock the actual thread? Couldn't you just ignore posts after a cetain point?
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Spread is the distance between the two prices displayed. The higher price is the one you buy bitcoins at. The lower one is the one you sell bitcoins at. Because of this spread, one will have a loss immediately upon assuming a position until the position turns a profit.
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It's possible you have a short position, as in you sold instead of bought bitcoins. There is no "constant tax".
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So it seems that so many investors waited for the holiday slump that their bids cumulated into a critical mass. But will the slump arrive? I think it is still a possibility - after the investors spent the surplus money in the rally.
What is your sample size for this "Holiday Slump" effect? |
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Sweet! Thanks guys!
I like it when a plan comes together. Now, I have a question. (may have been addressed in this long thread, so sorry for asking again)Can a vanity address be hashed by one person for the sole purpose of giving it to another, along with the password, whereupon the new owner is able to change the password locking out the one who created it? If so, reply with a brief outline of how this is done or, at the very least, point me toward a post that explains this. ~Bruno~ TL;DR: No. Full version: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Private_keyHope this helps. |
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This website does not display in IE9 ?
Strange...
Apologizes I thought Microsoft said they were going to start including Firefox instead of IE in their next release of windows.... Right... This isn't some laughing matter. 60% of the consumers will be using IE, and it should be important to support it. |
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3.06500
(sneaking in my bet)
1PMkySQc5Wm5Hd5W3HUSfkvLoqxjTkvdMc
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? but markets tend to be forward looking indicators. the market will not wait 6-7 years to price Bitcoin appropriately; they will today tend to project forward as best as possible what they think Bitcoin will be worth once the inflation has plateaued. also you didn't really answer my gold question. without an economy behind it, how is it that the price of gold has gone from $250 in 2001 to $1700 today? answer: speculation. the exact same thing can and will happen, IMO, to Bitcoin. Two things, markets look 6 month in the future not six years (generally). Second, speculation yes, that is one part on the answer the other one is a hedge against fiat currency's. as a rational participant in this market, i can tell you that i am looking way further into the future than 6 mo. i have based my investment decisions on the calculated value of Bitcoin after the inflation has plateaued. granted there are various ways to make that calculation depending on how bullish you are but surely one way is to take US money supply and divide by 21 million.  I have to agree. That target is unreasonable for the next decade... |
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Okay then. Here's the corrected version. 3 slots at 3 bitcoins each.
1 slot at 3.5 bitcoin
1 slot at 4 bitcoin
The rules do not state whether this is possible or not. As a bid cancels all previous bids, it is my understanding that it is in fact not allowed. But, you can replicate it by bidding 5 slots at 3 bitcoins each and later increasing the bid, which I put you down as. | Slot # | Username | Cost (BTC) | | 1 | Goat | 4.0 | | 2 | Goat | 3.5 | | 3 | Wm-center.com | 3.5 | | 4 | Wm-center.com | 3.5 | | 5 | Wm-center.com | 3.5 | | 6 | Wm-center.com | 3.5 | | 7 | Wm-center.com | 3.5 | | 8 | Goat | 3.0 |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap.
This is nothing but flawed thinking. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. Of course it is harder to sustain, but if the price can go up to $5-$6 it can sustain $5-$6 too. Consider the Austrailian dollar: as people who buy it usually sell it later, there is a giant amount of downwards pressure on it. But the price is sustaining itself not because it's used in Austrailia, but because the traders believe in its value. This is what cypherdoc and I mean by speculative demand. Right now, the bulls are dominant and believe $4 is possible. And that entails that it is. It may happen in days, or it may happen in January, but I think it will at least happen before February. After that, dieing bullish sentiment will entail a correction - but for now, we are in a bull market. |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. |
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