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2621  Economy / Speculation / Re: More than 75k BTC Sold on Aug 29th . on: September 10, 2013, 04:11:37 AM
More than 75k BTC Sold on Aug 29th .
Is it the reason btc dropped so sharply recent days?

http://blockchain.info/fb/1fgaftz

It's just a transaction. You can't really tell its purpose

True. Sure is interesting though!

I wouldnt doubt that its related to the drop one bit.
2622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 10, 2013, 03:41:13 AM
I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.  Shocked  We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait... Roll Eyes  I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.
2623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 10, 2013, 02:25:06 AM
Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)


That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week.  That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time.  The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening.  This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price.  He put it near the money.  HE WANTED it to be eaten.  He WANTS coins. 

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week.  He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down.  This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell.  But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment.  There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.




What do you mean 135 was his average price? It wasnt. It was more like 132. A bid wall at the top of your market order, when moving the price that much, doesnt make sense. Doesnt mean it was manipulated or anything, just that he would have gotten sold into at 134, 133, and probably even 130.
2624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 09, 2013, 03:18:41 PM
Damn it, knew I should have bought last night at 124! The damn graphs even told me in my sleep, BEAR TRAP!!

Now, please, bears. Sell down to 114 so I can be in bitcoin again


Er, damn, bears fighting back. As expected. 135 was too far too fast on too low volume.
2625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 09, 2013, 04:37:16 AM
Does anyone know if it's possible to buy an adaptor cable which plugs into a motherboard's PCIe x16 slot, which then has 16 PCIe x1 slots attached to it, one PCIe lane each?  I was wondering if it might work out cheaper if in addition to my expensive gas boiler I was to heat my house by Litecoin mining.  Almost all the power used by the GPUs is lost as heat, but in winter heat is something I want and something I would have to pay for anyway.  This would in effect be a noisy and bulky fan heater which generated both heat and money, the heat would make up for the fact that LTC mining uses a bit more electricity than the value of the LTC it mines.

Every calorie of heat the mining machine blows out is a calorie my boiler doesn't have to produce.  Obviously there's the component costs too, those would have to be second hand, such as old HD5870s which work fairly well but aren't very expensive any more.

Maybe I could find a way to create such a cable if they're not commercially available

Do you mean like this?

http://compare.ebay.com/like/190859065774?var=lv&ltyp=AllFixedPriceItemTypes&var=sbar

What would the purpose be [I mean, its making heat either way?]

Your boiler is more efficient as a heater than some GPUs.
Similar to that cable, but to plug into a motherboard's PCIe x16 slot at one end, and split into 16 cables with one PCIe x1 adaptor on each of the other ends to connect to 16 graphics cards.  The amount of data needed by each card mining can easily be sent through a single PCIe lane, after all the BFL 7GH/s vapourware miner that I've had on order forever uses a USB lead which is even slower.  (Where's my damned ASIC then, BFL?)

As for efficiency, consider it like any other machine for a moment, forget about data because that's not quantifiable in this way.  The card uses a certain amount of power, say 250W perhaps.  now where does all that power go?  The amount of electricity used by the PCIe interface is very small, the same goes for the video output cable.  This means that the bulk of the power is going somewhere else.  There are only three other ways for the power to go, remember that energy can neither be created nor destroyed, it has to go somewhere.  Those three ways are heat, noise and into kinetic energy from the fan and the air that it moves.  The moving air and the spinning fan will lose their energy as heat from friction in the bearings and against the air in the room, there's no other place for it to go but that's only a small proportion of the energy that the card uses anyway.  The noise isn't like a stereo turned right up (for a single card anyway!) so that can't be using a lot of energy either, and the sound vibrations in the air will also convert into a small amount of heat as the atmosphere in the room or the bricks in the wall absorb them.  This means that almost all the energy goes directly into the heat lost from the GPU itself.  Even the electrical signals absorbed in the motherboard and the monitor will eventually be lost as heat too.  So this effectively means that all the energy that goes into the card becomes heat from one source or another, the only lost energy is from any sound which escapes the building and loses its energy outdoors, which will be negligible.

So, given that virtually all the power used by the card must become heat inside the room, that means that it would produce exactly the same amount of heat as an electric fan heater that used the same amount of power, so it would cost the same amount of money to run it.  The fact that whilst it's heating the room it also generates Litecoin is bonus, and when that's counted against the electricity bill it means that a mining rig is a cheaper way to heat a room than an electric heater is.  Of course though this still leaves the cost of the equipment, which is the only thing which can make it work out more expensive overall, that's why getting the parts cheaply is vital.

Anyway, I like tinkering with electronics so it's something to occupy me during those long winter nights.

Of course though there's still the issue of whether the noise will drive me insane!

Well gas is about half the cost of electricity when it comes to heating. Im not sure if litecoin gains would outweight it, at least at current costs. I mean, looking back, a 7950 was making something like $20/day at point. If you sold at todays prices. Back then? Pennies?
2626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 09, 2013, 03:37:04 AM
Does anyone know if it's possible to buy an adaptor cable which plugs into a motherboard's PCIe x16 slot, which then has 16 PCIe x1 slots attached to it, one PCIe lane each?  I was wondering if it might work out cheaper if in addition to my expensive gas boiler I was to heat my house by Litecoin mining.  Almost all the power used by the GPUs is lost as heat, but in winter heat is something I want and something I would have to pay for anyway.  This would in effect be a noisy and bulky fan heater which generated both heat and money, the heat would make up for the fact that LTC mining uses a bit more electricity than the value of the LTC it mines.

Every calorie of heat the mining machine blows out is a calorie my boiler doesn't have to produce.  Obviously there's the component costs too, those would have to be second hand, such as old HD5870s which work fairly well but aren't very expensive any more.

Maybe I could find a way to create such a cable if they're not commercially available

Do you mean like this?

http://compare.ebay.com/like/190859065774?var=lv&ltyp=AllFixedPriceItemTypes&var=sbar

What would the purpose be [I mean, its making heat either way?]
2627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 07, 2013, 11:23:01 PM
past performance does not guarantee future results

I looked at the past price action and I have not seen an example where correction this strong did not break a short trem uptrend. April bubble on the picture.





Personally I think its going to bottom out around $114 some time next week, but of course... I'm usually wrong.

As a side note, my buy was 29c from the bottom. I dont feel bad about moving my bid from 122 to 121 anymore Tongue I sold at 128.74 - definitely did not expected to go to $131. However I think thats the short term top. At least, I hope it is...  Lips sealed


This volume is spectacularly boring.
2628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 07, 2013, 04:57:36 AM
So was 121.25 the bottom? This rise to 125 is just a suckers "rally"?

To me it looks like the bid and ask is much healthier, and if it werent for the rise to 150 being so manipulated, I would imagine the price would creep back up from here..

buuuuut, considering that, maybe there is much more room to fall..
2629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 07, 2013, 01:23:10 AM
 Wow, my bid was hit and the price is rising. This can mean only one thing. The price will collapse within 45mins; before i am able to get on my computer  and sell.
2630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 06, 2013, 11:28:34 PM
 Those  bastards missed my bid by less than 70c  God damn it. I even had my bid  at 122.50 and then moved it back $1!!! Fml, now if my bid gets hit we probably go through 120.
2631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 06, 2013, 06:08:40 PM
Selling 133 doesnt feel quite so bad anymore... but, I think this is going to go nowhere.

Regardless, bids around 121.5!

I hope for the best.. Meaning whats best for me. Fall to 121.5X and then super-whale brings us up to 150 Smiley
2632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 05, 2013, 10:21:51 PM
  it actually says in the article that brute forcing is part of the attack.
2633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 05, 2013, 09:45:49 PM
 May the selloffs... Begin.

Gg  bitcoin

Nore.
2634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 05, 2013, 04:42:35 AM
I'm officially the worst trader - sold at 89 (bottom), bought at 147 ($1 from top), sold at 127 (bottom)


Thank you for sharing, I dont feel so bad now!

Are you serious though?

But uh, I sold at 133 again after buying 136.....  and didnt rebuy 127. I had a buy 127.27 [no joke], but pulled it... bottom? 127.24.

FML.
2635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: September 05, 2013, 12:05:05 AM


I think chartbuddy would be more useful if the first datapoint would be copied over to the end, making it so you can see the actual changes in 1hr.

Of course, if the price drops $10, then its going to be a bit sloppy, but it helps in... almost all other charts.


@adams - WHAT, what happens? MAKE ME MONEY, I NEED TO RECOUP!! :{
2636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 04, 2013, 11:37:35 PM
Hey guys!!! I just got a call from a place called "White House", from a guy called Baraque, or something like that. He says he plans to buy btc worth 2 trillion (!) USD, as soon as his money arrives on mtgox. That's mega good news, right?

This is lie,

I receive telephone call from Tyler Twinklefloss, he tell me that all his coin are awaiting confirmation on Mt.Gox. He have Est. 40,000(!) bitcoin he intend to market sell IMMEDIATELY.

He say if price doesnt fall to single digits, he will buy more and sell them to bring it down.

Everyone, please sell now. I warn you! Should only be a few hours before its confirmed by the network..
I told you not to panic.

I PMed all my subscribers (before the crash) telling them not to panic if price would fall.

I guess everyone interpreted that as "sell now its going to crash"  Cheesy


Hey, I've been saying I thought it would go down for awhile. Yesterday I said if it went to 139 it wouldnt stabilize there and would fall more.

That happened. But I didnt act on my opinion. So, I lose quite a lot.
2637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 04, 2013, 11:26:52 PM
Hey guys!!! I just got a call from a place called "White House", from a guy called Baraque, or something like that. He says he plans to buy btc worth 2 trillion (!) USD, as soon as his money arrives on mtgox. That's mega good news, right?

This is lie,

I receive telephone call from Tyler Twinklefloss, he tell me that all his coin are awaiting confirmation on Mt.Gox. He have Est. 40,000(!) bitcoin he intend to market sell IMMEDIATELY.

He say if price doesnt fall to single digits, he will buy more and sell them to bring it down.

Everyone, please sell now. I warn you! Should only be a few hours before its confirmed by the network..
2638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 04, 2013, 10:21:12 PM
Definitely a bit of panic selling there... then re-correcting. Should go back to 140 today.

 Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink
2639  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 04, 2013, 10:02:07 PM
Man I knew I shouldnt have rebought at 136 Sad

So terrible, I am!

Better than a guy who probably still holds at $146. Don't worry, $140 is not so far away.

Yes, lovely manipulators saved me from tearing up Tongue
Man I knew I shouldnt have rebought at 136 Sad

So terrible, I am!
Don't worry. Price is still higher than just a week ago.

I bought in at $120. Sold $143.5. Bought back $146. Sold $139. Bought $136.

Im not very good at this  Wink

Oooh that $146 holding guy was you  Roll Eyes

Hey dont be mean, some whales bought in to 148.9! Tongue

I can say I did better than todays current "biggest loser"
2640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 04, 2013, 09:48:40 PM
Man I knew I shouldnt have rebought at 136 Sad

So terrible, I am!

Better than a guy who probably still holds at $146. Don't worry, $140 is not so far away.

Yes, lovely manipulators saved me from tearing up Tongue
Man I knew I shouldnt have rebought at 136 Sad

So terrible, I am!
Don't worry. Price is still higher than just a week ago.

I bought in at $120. Sold $143.5. Bought back $146. Sold $139. Bought $136.

Im not very good at this  Wink
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