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1661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 01:01:18 AM
This whipsawing is hell. 30 minutes ago I was convinced it was going down. Now because one douchebag made a buy and put up this wall, all the indicators are up again. And this has has happened about 3 times now.

Lol, exactly. But this doesn't look convincingly yet, I've done things like this in some small alts pushing the price up with walls just do dump higher. I don't trust one guy pushing the price up on his own with big wall without people actually joining him.

Neither China nor BTC-E are following. Likely not going anywhere up, yet.
1662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mtgox: Question for those who sold BTC at the end on: March 02, 2014, 10:59:47 PM
My condolences to everyone who lost money on Mtgox. But I'm still curious as to why the price went from $1000 to $100. For those of you who sold in that range, what was your reasoning for doing that?

This is the one piece of the puzzle that took me the longest to come up with a logical explanation for.  After MtGox disabled BTC withdrawals, I expected the premium over BitStamp to disappear PLUS a bit more to reflect the fact that limited fiat withdrawals in yen and euros were still possible.  But if I had fiat on Gox, I would have deployed all of it when the price premium was 20-30% below BitStamp.  I simply don't buy the "it's easier to sue in USD" to explain the price dropping under $100!  

My explanation for the dumping down below $100 follows from my theory (see links below) that Gox had been running a fractional reserve in bitcoin since 500,000 - 1,000,000 BTC were stollen in 2011:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=488058.msg5397869#msg5397869
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=492393.msg5438572#msg5438572

The theory states that Gox was using client fiat funds to purchase bitcoins from other exchanges and individuals in order to keep up with bitcoin withdrawals.  Prior to disabling bitcoin withdrawals, they had, say, $150,000,000 in client funds sitting in USD IOUs but only $30,000,000 in actual cash.  If this fact was revealed during bankruptcy, it would have been clear-cut fraud and Mark would be doing jail time: how could you explain $120,000,000 in missing cash??

So, when Mark knew it was over, he began selling fractional reserve GoxBTC from multiple alias accounts (to make it look like real customers were selling).  He drove the price so low, that most people converted their USD funds into GoxBTC.  He kept driving the price lower and lower hoping that enough people would convert into GoxBTC so that he could rebalance the USD funds owed to customers with what was actually in the Gox corporate bank account.  He drove the price so low that people actually wired additional funds to Gox further reducing his USD solvency gap.  

But it looks like it wasn't enough.  I think the bankruptcy filling declares $50,000,000 in fiat liabilities and $30,000,000 in cash.  But my point is that if he had gone bankrupt prior to dumping all those bitcoins (that didn't really exist), the fiat deposits owed to real customers would have looked ridiculous and screamed "fraud."

In conclusion, the price was driven low by Mark dumping GoxBTC to entice GoxUSD holders to transfer from USD into GoxBTC, in an attempt to close the USD solvency gap between what Gox had in its bank with what it owed to its clients.  


Thanks for this thoughtful post.  I'd wondered about it too and never bought the USD recovery idea either.  However, how does your explanation account for the huge volumes on Gox?  If Gox was making .6% commission they made almost 180K coins their last month of operation according to bitcoin charts.

How are you calculating such a number? Even assuming the "most favorable conditions", its just 6000.
That being, 1 million exchanged * 0.006 = 6000

Really though, assume maybe a 0.004 fee average, due to tiered fee rates, and of course that is 4000.

In the 3 months before, They got about 2.3m volume. So another 9200.

Assume 50% fee fiat -> BTC, all at $136: Another 50,000BTC. However, we know this didnt happen(they didnt acquire 50kBTC @ 136). So, could we say.. in the last 4 months, they covered 65000/744000 of liabilities, assuming $136 exchange rate?

Otherwise... if we go by the BitStamp exchange rate, then they acquired 12,500 "real BTC" in fiat fees, and another 14,000 in BTC fees.

Total in 4 months: 26,500 / 744,000 = 3.56%

--

Now, honestly, thats not too bad. But, even assuming just a 20% increase in BTC value per year, over the 10 years that it would take them to pay out "BTC:BTC", the BTC liabilities value in USD would average out to have quintupled.
1663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 10:48:53 PM

(The page went blank it seems.)

Very interesting.

Didn't Karpeles brag somewhere of having been through tight situations that we cannot imagine, or something like that?


Must be your browser or something, still oads here.

Code:
[quote]In the wake of Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox announcing that it lost $473 million worth of the virtual currency, many people who saw their money disappear have called for CEO Mark Karpeles to be imprisoned. Well, funny thing: it wouldn't necessarily be the first time Karpeles has been arrested for fraud.

As pointed out to Gawker by a tipster who wishes to remain anonymous, Karpeles seems to discuss a past arrest concerning "payment systems on the internet" in a 2006 post on his blog Magical Tux. The post, like all on the blog Karpeles links to in his Twitter bio, is in French, but the tipster translated the relevant section on his personal Tumblr:

    Indeed, during my misspent youth, I made a huge, huge mistake. Enough silliness that I found myself locked into custody and brought temporarily placed in the "mousetrap" (souricičre: possibly "n.f. (pol.): 'Baited trap' laid by the forces of law-and-order."). This was followed by an investigation of more than a year, which eventually ended in a trial.

    I will not give too much detail about what I did wrong, just say it concerns payment systems on the Internet. I spent two years taking risks becoming larger, perhaps because it was an exciting side … whatever, I ended up getting arrested (in rather bizarre circumstances, noting that when I was arrested, I was just in a police station to file a complaint for something else). Anyway, I was released four days later and placed under "judicial review". Basically I did not have the right to leave France and I had to go regularly to the courthouse to speak to someone who was going to see if I lived in "the right way".

    ...

    In the end, the trial was not concluded too bad for me (3 months suspended sentence disappearing after 5 years, and nothing in the criminal record).

A Google translate for the blog post returns the same story, albeit in less smooth English.

According to Karpeles' blog post, the fallout from this "huge, huge mistake" is why he eventually migrated to Japan, where he now lives. There is almost no evidence of Karpeles' possible past arrest on the internet, perhaps because, as the blog post claims, his sentence would have been wiped from records somewhere around two years ago.

But a recent story in the French paper Le Journal de Sâone et Loire, that includes quotes from Karpeles' mother Anne, says that after starting an IT company in Paris, Karpeles left the city after being caught committing "computer fraud." This small tidbit was noticed by Reddit's Bitcoin forum, but has not yet trickled up to the media until now.

If Karpeles does have a history of committing fraud, it doesn't necessarily mean that he did anything wrong legally or morally with Mt. Gox's Bitcoins. But it probably won't make the people out $473 million sleep any easier.

The Bitcoin community will surely learn a number of lessons from the Mt. Gox disaster, and here is a simple one: when investing in Bitcoin, make sure the guy you're trusting with your money doesn't have a secret past committing fraud. Even if that means finding someone who knows French.[/quote]
1664  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 10:35:43 PM
good-sized dump on Stamp. a one-off or beginning of something interesting?

My guess.. a little more dumping.
1665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Not seeing 620 again any time soon (and I hope I am wrong) on: March 02, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
Really? Bitstamp volumes are extremely low and prices down just a few dollars. Seems like the market is waiting for some news or a cue of some sort. Could well drift further down but I'm not seeing it today.

Probably because everyone is withdrawing, so less traders.
1666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 02:20:38 PM
...
You are mixing up unpredictable events with an event that had been predicted a year in advance.

Death is inevitable, and everyone is going to die -- most adults know that.  Nevertheless, there are often tears at funerals.  Go figure.

Gox proclaimed dead. Funeral to be arranged shortly:



Invitations going out soon...



FTFY

lmfao.

Does anyone know why GoxBTC is up? http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitcoinbuilder/GOXBTC
1667  Economy / Speculation / Re: A cracker owning 850,000btc. How bad is it? on: March 02, 2014, 01:54:23 AM
Do you think a person who have such economic power wouldn't use that to manipulate the market for years?? think again...

if they've got that many coins why manipulate the market and risk decreasing their value? The only gameplan worth playing is the one where you just withdraw bitcoins. Anything else is just totally illogical. With 750k coins there is no point in trying to play games with the market and manipulate it. Sure you can cause some flash crashes but then what? That just creates more instability and you've not gained anything.

Anything else is just pure fantasy.

Nope.

If I had stolen 750K in Bitcoins, at was primarily interested in cash, I would of course have a pressing urge to enjoy the immediate benefits of cash richness, but unless I was stupid, I wouldn't dump so much that I destroyed the market which is to be my cash cow for the next 20 years or whatever. Nope. I would definitely let it grow before cashing in my next pay cheque.

If exchanges didnt require verification and you could just be anonymous, full on dumping would be the best choice. But since it isnt, then yes.. small dumps that suppress the market eternally are better.

1668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 02, 2014, 12:43:59 AM
OP is an idiot. Many traders already left gox six months ago. Gox is not bitcoin. Gox is irrelevant now. Do you know much btc the chinese buy every hour?

Lol... trading back and forth.. is not buying.

1669  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] a proffessional donation accepter -helpthepoorguy.com on: March 01, 2014, 11:31:35 PM
hey everyone. this is the evolution of the internet phenomena.
you know, it would be great if it answers the purpose. and it will answer by your action.
visit my site and do what you should.

www.helpthepoorguy.com

Wow, pathetic.

Its not like this guy is even saying, "I need a car"

He needs a Mercedes.

Sure thing!

Fuck you.
1670  Economy / Speculation / Re: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? on: March 01, 2014, 11:03:03 PM
Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

So you are thinking sub $400 is possible? By when?
Sub 100 in a few months.
1671  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 10:33:57 PM
I also find it funny how ppl just say well too bad the gox clients will just have to buy their coins again at the current price. Um no, they won't fucking rebuy the coins no one will fucking rebuy coins, especially at the current rates.

This is like someone losing a ton of gold at a bank and then he's like oh OK NP let me just go buy another fucking ton , no it doesn't work that way cuz that person is depleted of money plus won't have the confidence for sometime to rebuy.

I'm just one datapoint, but that is exactly what I did in 2012 when I lost nearly all of my coins in Bitcoinica. I balked at the price (around 10 USD) and I did not buy as many as I lost but re-buy I did. (Of course, I avoid counter party risk like the plague now and keep everything in offline cold storage).

The reason I lost is because I misplaced trust in people, not because of a failure of the technology behind Bitcoin.

If you get scammed on the internet you also don't stop using it. You don't give up, you wise up.

You are a rare minority. And while it payed off for you this time, it doesnt always.
1672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now we have 750,000 less bitcoins in circulation ? on: March 01, 2014, 09:59:28 PM
According to some reports 100,000 of the coins belong to Gox, and 345,000 belonged to Mark.
It is a nice thought that they stuffed themselves...if it were true

My ass he owned 345k bitcoin and didnt do anything with him

If he did.. wow.

1673  Economy / Speculation / Re: A cracker owning 850,000btc. How bad is it? on: March 01, 2014, 09:13:48 PM
All this talk of this destroying the Bitcoin market are absurd.

This isn't the first huge bitcoin hack and it probably won't be the last.

Nobody is going to try and dump that many coins in one go. They would drain them out slowly to ensure maximum long term profit.

If I were the hacker I would probably sit on them for a long time and probably only start selling OTC to stay under the exchanges radar for a while. Probably reach out to people who expressed an interest of buying a large chunk OTC under market price. It would take a while to get even a million out but given time that could be accelerated as the trading volume picks up and the number of exchanges increases.

Nobody with a large holding of bitcoin is stupid enough to crash the bitcoin market. It's that simple.

If what Mt.Gox claims is true this is biggest hack ever. The only thing comparable with the SR sized coins (150k).

Do you think a person who have such economic power wouldn't use that to manipulate the market for years?? think again...

+1

6% of the market no matter how large it is.
1674  Economy / Speculation / Re: A cracker owning 850,000btc. How bad is that? on: March 01, 2014, 07:31:00 PM
So if a "cracker" really has 850K bitcoins (highly unlikely really), the question is "WHAT WILL HE SPEND IT ON"?

A few suggestions:
 - Private Jet (I suggest a tricked out G650 or a private 787 for longer distances)
 - Private Island preferably with a runway with full ILS capabilities.
 - Nice car(s)
 - Maids and butlers

It's not hard to spend lots of money....



How?

Do you know a:
- Bitcoin vendor selling planes?
- Bitcoin vendor selling islands?
- OK yes, you can buy cars
- Maids and Butlers (not professions known for their technical knowhow, although I stand to be corrected) who will accept Bitcoin as a weekly wage?

Bitcoin is not money until (a) you convert it to fiat - as pointed out this would fuck the markets in a major way, making the guy's BTC worth way less or (b) you find someone willing to take it from you for something nice.

We'd all like the things above, but these particular bitcoins won't be buying them.

Rit.

A.
https://www.bitpremier.com/items/view/26
https://www.bitpremier.com/items/view/183

B.
https://www.bitpremier.com/items/view/51

C.
https://www.bitpremier.com/items/view/100
1675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 07:26:06 PM
Confirmed Goxcoin pump, get in while its cheap!

Why do people say such stupid shit? Goxbtc isnt even moving.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitcoinbuilder/GOXBTC
1676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 07:23:20 PM
Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.
They almost certainly exist, so this whole "oh 6% less bitcoins, bitcoin should go up by 1000% because there are 6% less" thing is absolute bullshit.

And the defense of bitcoin doesnt need Gox? No, of course it doesnt need Gox. It needs investor confidence. And the death of Gox just siphoned every drop of it out.
1677  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [ASIC-RESISTANT] UltraCoin (UTC) - Newly Launched on: March 01, 2014, 06:19:38 PM
750 watts is insane.

I have 400 watts at .152USD/KWh.

200khash- 7.43/day
Power - 1.44/day

How is yours so terrible?
1678  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [ASIC-RESISTANT] UltraCoin (UTC) - Newly Launched on: March 01, 2014, 06:14:08 PM
Does hashrate halve ever n-factor change?

Because thats about what I'm seeing.
1679  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 05:47:54 PM
Well, I've been telling people I know to buy BTC for a damned long time; friends, family, and coworkers.

I have since told everyone to sell everything, because we are going nowhere but down from here, until something good comes out of Gox. If that never happens? Then down to double digits.

Everyone thinking this is a good thing is 100% delusional.
1680  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [ASIC-RESISTANT] UltraCoin (UTC) - Newly Launched on: March 01, 2014, 05:33:24 PM
warning: mintpal is ridiculously manipulated. watching these orders is making me laugh.  Grin

What, because its going down -> manipulation?

I dont mind my UTC value dropping because I love that the people who bought the premine are down even worse than me. Its an awesome thought.



Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but they are still able to sell at 400% profit against what they paid for it.  

Ah, I was off by a decimal point. Damn.

Well I'd be willing to lose everything just so they do too Tongue
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