This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of CyclesThe one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back The one where web3 supercedes web2 Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216-------- At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading. We'll just have to see what the top would be. If 100K, 80% down is a bit crazy. I can see it happening fromm $300 with a 50% probability and with 65-70% probability from $500K. The canonical numbers would be $300K, then $60K, but I agree that we MIGHT not dip 80% even from there, unless short term interest rates will go above 7-8%. |
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I can see gold becoming a useful cheap metal for making 100-200 year long batteries for Tesla's electric cars.
ford is going electric for a reason. they all know those asteroids are loaded with insane amounts of gold.
Gold makes super long lasting batteries if it were to be worth 100 x less or 17 a pound vs 1700 a pound we would have multi generational batteries.
Sell your gold and buy btc
Ford is switching to all electric 2030 for a reason they know Elon will be mining those asteroids bigly.
We are heading into a new world of cheap long lasting power.
BTC is the tool that will allow it to happen.
hodl hodl hodl.
500k before 2030
We wont be driving cars in 100 years; we'll be teleporting... to Mars. WE is a tad optimistic (although I wouldn't mind, really). |
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What if...
What if this is the very beginning of the middle of the "S Curve"?
My over bullishness is going to mean I have to wait for the next cycle to get my little beach shack aren't I?
hoards of bitcoiners would cause high inflation in beach shack prices  |
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 They will surely missed it and they're the one who's been fooled. Who's next? Motley and fools got separated, then reacquainted. |
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Bitcoin behaves like it is stuck in a rut...unless you step back and look at the weeklies, which are super bullish.
What we observe, together with coins flying off of exchanges, is huge funds/companies doing equally large accumulation while trying not to affect the price much, imho.
Someone pointed to a single wallet making a $5 bil transaction recently.
The are not too many entities which could have pulled it off.
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Today might be the day the the price of one full BTC will reach 50K
nah, it is too darn cold for this. |
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Yow!
BTC was down over $2000 in less than 30 minutes (at least at bitbo.io), but just jumped back up some 25% of the cliff from $48,000.
I wonder what's up?
"people" always trying some s-t over the weekend. alts are deflating..I guess SEC will call some of them securities again, an easiest guess. |
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$50000 will fall down like all lower significant figures before. We are going to $200000 this year, shorters & manipulators are going to get wrecked. Nothing can stop this locomotive.
This gung-ho attitude so reminds me of someone here in the past, lol. That said, it would be nice, but by no means guaranteed and you have to be prepared for volatility. Incidentally, btc volatility was too much even for Nassim T. He, or his fund probably expected a bigger downturn from $42K. Someone had bought all those bearish futures. Could be Universa, lol. |
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Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added.
can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles. without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution. https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might. <Whoa? Not the best example, lol> Biodom I will have to read your link. Edit: Biodom I have read the link and am none the wiser. Do these decentralised oracles vote? What stops sock puppet attacks? Basically, you posited that "any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake". Yes, people realized this quite a while ago and their solution is decentralized oracles where oracle is the node that transmits data into the blockchain. If multiple independent oracles provide the same data/value, then most likely then not I is prone to be correct. How this happens mathematically (how the data is aggregated by the network of oracles), I don't know. However, they posit that if individual oracles are hacked, deleted or depreciated, oracle network would still be intact, similarly to how bitcoin nodes all independently confirm the block and if you lose electricity to your node, the network would not be affected. Without advocating this system at all, really, here is the direct link to the video just for understanding. https://youtu.be/ZJfkNzyO7-U |
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Without bitcoin there is no crypto, no digital currency and no use case of blockchain technology.
To be fair, I think a few use cases for blockchain technology exist - like cryptographically reliable timestamping of certain transactions. The shipment industry could be an example, or the stock market and the clearinghouses behind the curtains, where strict timing and prioritization of trades could be made transparent. The only important property is that you can't touch a past block without invalidating later ones. However, such an unwieldy, inefficient, slow thing as a non-permissioned, fully distributed blockchain, with PoW, ...well, then of course there would be no need. Except for bitcoin  the problem is that the only thing that is unforgeable is the transaction history of the used decentralized token. the only thing that a bitcoin protocol can guarantee AND enforce is the genuineness of the token. it cannot enforce anything outside of the protocol. they are called token because all they can do is represent. the tokens can not be attached to any thing in the physical world. supply chains or transport chains cannot be trusted only because some software is used. a bad actor can always just betray the system, the software cannot enforce anything. the bitcoin protocol can enforce the the rules that make a bitcoin a bitcoin. this is a closed system. since it represents money (which is an abstract concept, that is why has so far reaching consequences) we get a money that is not forgeable, cannot be censored, etc, etc. the bitcoin protocol could not represent a container or an egg to make it a "honest" egg or container. Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added. can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles. without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution. https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might. |
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Really? didn't we discuss a Swedish ETF here several years ago? Or am I misremembering. You are quite correct (there is bitcoin tracker one XBT provider, trading in SEK) but I think that there is a fine line between ETN (such as XBT provider) and ETP/ETF. Correct me if I am wrong, but i remember someone saying that Sweden has incredibly low capital gains tax rate in some special investment accounts (like low single digits) and that was the whole idea behind this type of funds (such as XBT provider, because you can keep those in the 'special' accounts). Right? I am not sure how, and don't want to spend too much time investigating. XBT provider is referred to as a "uncollaterized debt instrument". I managed to buy CXBTF in Fidelity, but some days there is no US market for it due to SEC complains about it. I guess, i would have to use foreign exchange desk and pay $50 fee when i would like to sell it. I bought it when btc was 4K or so, so that little tracker had done quite well in Roth, lol. Ah, yes, that must be the "investeringssparkonto", meaning "investment savings account" Yes the tax is really low, but it is a tax you always pay, even when your assets go down. Here's an example from the tax authority, i highlighted the important parts. Example Peter opens an investment savings account during the first quarter of 2020. He pays in SEK 40,000 during the first quarter and then an additional SEK 20,000 during the third quarter. During the year, the value of Peter's assets in the investment savings account increases (in addition to deposits made). Calculation of capital base for investment savings account Value and deposits Amount Value at the beginning of the first quarter (January 1) 0 kronor Value at the beginning of the second quarter (April 1) + SEK 41,000 Value at the beginning of the third quarter (July 1) + SEK 43,000 Value at the beginning of the fourth quarter (October 1) + SEK 65,000 Deposits during the year + SEK 60,000 Sum of value and deposits = SEK 209,000 To obtain the capital base, the sum of value and deposits must be divided by four: SEK 209,000 ÷ 4 = SEK 52,250. The standard income that is pre-filled in Peter's declaration The standard income is calculated by multiplying the capital base by 1.25 percent. The standard income that will be pre-filled in Peter's tax return in 2021 will be SEK 653 (SEK 52,250 x 1.25 percent). The standard income is taxed at 30 percent Since the standard income is taxed at 30 percent in the income category capital, Peter will have to pay SEK 195 in tax on his investment savings account (30 percent of SEK 653). This is 0.375 percent of the capital base (0.375 percent of SEK 52,250). Very informative, thanks, albeit a complicated formula. I wish we had that...pay 0.375% yearly instead of 23.8% on long term cap gains and up to 35% on short term. It looks like in Sweden they tax regular income much more than cap gains. |
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Any conspiracy theorists here?
Why would both India (expected) and Nigeria (unexpected) suddenly lurched toward banning or limiting all cryptocurrencies?
These two countries have quite a few people, lol.
My conspiratorial explanation is that as WS is getting into bitcoin, it does not want competition for the precious corn.
Nigerians were quite into bitcoin, I hear.
Say, a few massive wealth managers quietly talk to IMF or whatever other Central central bank there is, the IMF 'people' whisper something into India and Nigeria regulator's ears and voila-new policies are being enacted and competition to buy corn is lessened. US based hedgies/wealthies probably figured... less for them, more for us.
This all is just a product of my wild imagination, of course.
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Really? didn't we discuss a Swedish ETF here several years ago? Or am I misremembering. You are quite correct (there is bitcoin tracker one XBT provider, trading in SEK) but I think that there is a fine line between ETN (such as XBT provider) and ETP/ETF. Correct me if I am wrong, but i remember someone saying that Sweden has incredibly low capital gains tax rate in some special investment accounts (like low single digits) and that was the whole idea behind this type of funds (such as XBT provider, because you can keep those in the 'special' accounts). Right? I am not sure how, and don't want to spend too much time investigating. XBT provider is referred to as a "uncollaterized debt instrument". I managed to buy CXBTF in Fidelity, but some days there is no US market for it due to SEC complains about it. I guess, i would have to use foreign exchange desk and pay $50 fee when i would like to sell it. I bought it when btc was 4K or so, so that little tracker had done quite well in Roth, lol. |
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shitcoins will all bleed their "value" into the dominant network over time. they are vehicles of parting noobs and their money. the scammers will steal the money from the noobs and put it into bitcoin.
Highlighted is what is giving me pause. I don't want main investors in btc to be people whose major contribution was "stealing" money from the hapless alt investors. BTW, who got the GME "money"? That trade in the final analysis surely looked like a bitconnect pyramid scheme aside from the initial putatively noble cause of "sticking it to the evil hedge funds". In the end, those who were long from $5 or even $18 happily locked in their gains and left the late comers with huge losses. I know that 'they' blocked the entry point, but profit WAS taken. |
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I also listened to those and also to NUPL discussion somewhere else, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that we would be able to maintain the tempo until December, which, in my opinion, makes this cycle similar to 2013 (two-humped) with a first peak earlier than expected, say, the end of Feb-early April at much higher than now (maybe 65-100K), then a steep correction to 40-55K (depending on whether it starts at 65 or 100), then flat city until the end of August, then the cycle hurrah burst to whatever number we can reach (150-288K, maybe even higher), ending in Nov-Dec, as usual.
The way that you are describing the double peak (similar to 2013) may well justify that the second half of the peak get drug out for a much longer period of time than it had played out in 2013 - surely reasonable to drag out into any of the first 3 quarters of 2022 - yet the longer that such second peak might drag out might cause it to fall into a bit of a category that ends up being a supercycle rather than anything really so comparable to 2013 and even including smaller dips.. .. Even your exact proposed scenario of a correction from $65k to $100k down to $40k to $55k (45%-ish) is way the hell of a smaller correction than what had happened in 2013 when the peak was something like $263 and the correction was down to $70-ish (85%-ish). That's just how I see it and using your numbers, 263 to 70 is a 73.3% correction, not 85%. I do expect a touch less volatility, or at least i hope so. Bitcoin is unpredictable, though. all above is just a conjecture. future numbers would show if i am right or not. In a big 5-10 year picture it probably does not matter anyway. |
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Selling a car with 6 year "savings" is such a mind-fuck approach typical of social engineers in the valley. Cringe.
A small car anyway. Get an S or latter letters if you want at least some comfort/space.
Advice heeded. Thanks. (as long as the S has the fart button, I'm interested.....) this one? https://youtu.be/Esw9vyF0MGw?t=75sure this one surely tries to impress some Swiss chicks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL7qvKQeAjw |
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 Dagnabbit.... where's the bitcoin payment option? Selling a car with 6 year "savings" is such a mind-fuck approach typical of social engineers in the valley. Cringe. A small car anyway. Get an S or latter letters if you want at least some comfort/space. |
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when issued btc market cap exceeds 1 tril, even W. Buffett will take a 'parcel' of btc land.
That and seeing btc on his great-grand-children iPhones, lol.
1 tril and he is in...
Although, who knows, maybe he was one of those who bought MSTR converts as he like converts so much.
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I'm probably late, but.. we did it !   I am slow. What does this mean...? Give it to me straight. It means that it is still early days. You need to pay 21 bitcoins for a million dollars. OR it means that "fully diluted" btc is at 1tril valuation (1.008.000 mil) |
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