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2661  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin in space. on: May 29, 2012, 04:44:20 AM
The cooling would require heat radiators and maybe even liquid cooling even with FPGA, but it is of course possible.  

Its -270.3celsius in space, you would need to warm up the FPGA rather than cool it.

Wow, you're full of information aren't you?  Most of it wrong.  You just quoted an ambient temp for a nearly perfect vacuum, which is something that has no meaning.  The surface temp of any object that does not produce it's own heat is a balance point of radiation received and radiation emitted.  Outside of Earth's atmosphere and in direct sunlight, that surface temp is closer to 92 Degree Celsius.   To get anywhere near the number you quoted an object would either have to be so far away from the Sun that it was barely larger a star than any other, or permanently in the shadow of a major object that did not emit infrared heat from it's dark side.  The only reason that space could be considered 'cold' anywhere near Earth's own solar orbit, or anywhere on our side Mars, would be because the boiling point of water is below it's own freezing point, evaporating off your skin instantly and taking heat with it for as long as it lasts.  That would be the least of your worries, though.  And it has zero to do with how to regulate the temp of a space born mining rig.
2662  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Is there a way to send multiple payments at once? on: May 28, 2012, 09:35:18 PM
Is there a way that I can send the same amount to multiple addresses?

Yes, but there are no GUI wallet programs that support it yet.
2663  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum on: May 28, 2012, 02:24:13 AM
One thing that could be done is to add a new rule to the minimum fee structure that adds a relative increase in the minimum fee after a year or so, in such a way that long term savings accounts end up paying for their past security eventually; but that's not really demurrage and doesn't contribute much to consolidation of the blockchain nor does in contribute anything to the running security.

There are no rules to the minimum fee structure - miners and nodes are free to enforce whatever fees they want. Ultimately the market will decide what fee structure is best for Bitcoin, which is the way it should be.

There are rules to the minimum fee structure and miners and nodes are free to enforce whatever fees that they want.
2664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoincard.org on: May 27, 2012, 01:32:05 PM

Ah, I see.  A bitcoin card can't be a  passive RFID.  It has to be an active id by it's nature.  Good luck cloning those.
2665  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum on: May 27, 2012, 01:30:42 PM
Demurrage can't work in a bitcoin-like cryptocurrency without breaking something.  I've looked pretty deep into this before, and wish I were proven wrong.  So far, it just adds too much complexity or it fails to encourage the desirable activities such as deliberate consolidation of inputs.  One thing that could be done is to add a new rule to the minimum fee structure that adds a relative increase in the minimum fee after a year or so, in such a way that long term savings accounts end up paying for their past security eventually; but that's not really demurrage and doesn't contribute much to consolidation of the blockchain nor does in contribute anything to the running security.
2666  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoincard.org on: May 27, 2012, 01:19:11 PM
What will stop people from going around with a Proxmark and cloning those cards?

What is a proxmark?
2667  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoincard.org on: May 27, 2012, 03:24:37 AM
Smartphones are just computers that are always accessible to the Internet.  Android can be, and has been, hacked.  No thanks.  I have an android phone and won't keep more than petty cash on it.  I want a device that is inherently more secure than an operating system with continuous Internet access that can still transact in a relatively conveint fashion.  I can have a perfectly secure savings account printed onto archival paper & in my safe that I can send money to all day, but I can't readily use that on a normal basis though.

How are you going to do a Bitcoin tx when neither party has access to the internet?


<sigh>

Do some research on the matter.

Quote

No reason for a smartphone to have internet when you don't want it to.  "Airplane mode" disables all radios at the device level.  Kinda hard to be online when you have no signal. Wink

Unless you intend to carry a second phone to actually make calls, texts or use the Internet while mobile; you're going to turn that mode off eventually.  I'm not concerned about a live hacker taking my money, I'm concerned about a worm or virus that steals android wallets.  That only takes a few seconds.
2668  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoincard.org on: May 26, 2012, 09:22:43 PM
Their design includes a trusted server, which should NOT be necessary for bitcoins.
Well, when you can design a credit-card sized device that can hold and process the entire Bitcoin blockchain, you let us know!  Wink
That is not necessary, a smartcard just needs to sign transactions and updating the future multi-gig blockchain on that vapor devices connection is not gonna happen anyway.

Plus the smartphone will be the platform of the future.  Android smartphones are now as cheap as $149 on prepaid plan without contract and there are prepaid plans as cheap as $30 per month.

Smartphones are just computers that are always accessible to the Internet.  Android can be, and has been, hacked.  No thanks.  I have an android phone and won't keep more than petty cash on it.  I want a device that is inherently more secure than an operating system with continuous Internet access that can still transact in a relatively conveint fashion.  I can have a perfectly secure savings account printed onto archival paper & in my safe that I can send money to all day, but I can't readily use that on a normal basis though.
2669  Economy / Economics / Re: Price stickiness at $5 USD/BTC? on: May 26, 2012, 09:17:34 PM


think about it another way.   what you describe is the financial equivalent of a perpetual motion machine. 


No it's not.  You're just not understanding.

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if it was this simple everyone with money would be doing it. 

To varying degrees, many are and have in the past.  I'm talking about a computer program implimenting a standard speculation stragedgy.

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In a true market-moving demand situation, the bot's supply of bitcoin would be exhausted. A similar argument would result in exhaustion of dollars to buy with in a true market-moving supply situation. However, if the bot is colluding with the exchange, then the exchange can have effective unlimited supply/demand by 'printing money' in either mtgox usd of mtgox btc subject to avoiding a 'run-on-the-bank' and trying to balance out the accounts over time.

This scenario makes a strong argument for having exchanges operate on the bitcoin network so that at least the btc side of the exchange is subject to global auditing.

-s

A billionare doesn't need to colude with anyone in order to defend the peg in a $40million market.  By definition, his resources are already unlimited within the trading range of $5+-.10.  The only way the market maker stands to lose in this scenario is if the natural price shoots towards zero and he ends up owning all of it.  After which there is no more market to make.

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Quote from: Moonshadow
It only takes one big market maker to do the job.  If others come along later a see that some bigwig has already set up his system, maybe they do look for another market, but so what?  Again, this is a long view speculation, the speculation being that the bigwig is betting on the long term success of bitcoin.  Isn't that what we all are doing?  The suppression of voltility imply mimics a larger & mroe mature currency market, which is what small businesses want to see before diving in. By encouraging these small businesses to dive in, the invetor wills his prediction to become reality as the market really does mature under his watch and voltility really does stableize just as the bigwig is ready to withdraw his deliberate support and start to take his profits.  Notice it's not in his best interest to take all his prifits in any particular time frame.


we all want to see a more stable bitcoin.  we want that occur organically.  we don't want it to occur by allowing theft via market manipulation.  two very different things. 
It's not theft buck, it's how currency markets are supposed to work.  There are a dozen small nations in South America that openly & deliberately 'peg' their local currencies to the US $, and this is exactly how they do it.

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One thing that we know from is history is that every market that has been created has had to deal with manipulation and insider trading. Somebody is always going to find a way to rig the market somehow.  But then at some point they get busted and then we figure out how to prevent people from doing that again.   It would be nice if we could catch these people and expose them now so we could move ahead.  

Quote from: moonshadow
We actually don't want that.

the scammers are undermining confidence in the market.  no one wants to play in a market they know will rob them.   we will regain some market confidence when the scammers are caught and exposed


[/quote]

You assume that this invovles some kind of fruad.  I'm telling you that it doesn't require that.  All it requires is one person with the resources to buy the entire market and the apparent willingess to actually risk that occurring.  He can defend the price floor until the last bitcoin is his.  What he cant do forever is defend the high end forever.

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a lot of people have read this thread which means a lot of people are thinking about this issue.  someone will inevitably expose these people.   

in the long-term we need to devise something that obviates the need for an easily corrupted, centralized monopolistic exchange.



That's a different subject altogether.
2670  Economy / Goods / Re: Come in and Trade Ammo or Talk about Guns! on: May 26, 2012, 03:02:28 AM
the only thing thats going to set a round off is a precise strike from a hammer, etc.

Then what's a Cookoff?

It's when a barrel is so hot, that it bakes a cheap primer into firing.  I've literally never seen anything like this actually happen, and I've fired an M60 until the barrel glowed red and each new round produced a white hot dot on the barrel that zipped down and out.  Throwing them into a fire will blow them, but it's the caged force of being inside of a chamber that is dangerous.

Not that throwing ammo into a fire is actually safe.
2671  Economy / Economics / Re: Price stickiness at $5 USD/BTC? on: May 25, 2012, 11:34:54 PM


In your example there is a huge player who has a buy limit order below $5 and a sell limit order above $5.  In this example the investor would lose money in an effort to dampen volatility.  An imbalance between the number of selling orders and buy order executions would result in losses.  Running an imbalance over time almost a given.   To prevent this from ruining his ability to make a profit he needs to be able to see beyond the order book.  He needs inside information.  


Nonesense, all he needs is enough funds to be able to buy out the entire market, which would be exceedingly easy to do for any billionare willing to do it.  If the bot is set up to buy (with resources at least as large as the whole market, which is effectively limitless for this tiny market) at $4.90 with a delay of several hours, he can accumulate bitcoins for $4.90 or sometimes less without dramaticly affecting the volume adjusted price.  By selling at $5.10 (again, with a delay) he sells them at $5.10 or more.  The delay exists to 1) let smaller players soak up the price movements in order to stretch out his funds and 2) to obscure the presence of a "wall".  The only way for said player to lose money in the near term is if 1) everything goes sour in a hurry and he ends up buying all the bitcoins in existance at that price level (as in a major security hole is found in the protocol that cant be fixed, unlikley at this point) so that volume goes to zero because he already has them all and there are no buyers or 2) the price movement that wants to trend lower overwhelms his funds.  If the top end of the bot is ever overwhelmed then the investor still makes money in the process of defending the top end of his target trading range.  Not as much as he could have if he let the top end seek it's market price, granted, but he can't lose money by buying at $4.90 and selling at $5.10 even if he doesn't have the resources to defend the peg.  Perhaps the top and bottom aren't rigid price points, but percentages.  There are major market makers in the commodities markets that do things on the stock market this way to prevent (or profit from) 'buy the rumor, sell the news' type panic movements.  The goal of such a bot isn't primarily to profit from price movements, although it generally does except in extreme conditions.  It's primary goal is to suppress voltility for a time to permit the market to mature as well as develop a 'safe' reputation; and the profit taking occurs in the long run.  It's speculation taken to a long view.

Quote

If a big player wants enter this market a better strategy is simply accumulating bitcoins with small buys over time.  Market trading is too thin to do otherwise.   Moving the market that much would be risky.  


That is functionally what the bot does.  Perhaps the bot is  set up to set aside 5% of the coins it buys on dips, so tht if the high end of the bot is ever overwhelmed (selling 95% of all teh coins it's accumulted) then the bot owner still has the las 5% to take full profits from once the market price has found it's new home.  Set the bot up again with a new trading range, rinse repeat.  Again, the only way the investor stands to lose under this scenario is after the whole bitcoin market grows bigger than he is.  Any investor knows how big he wants to be, few are going to get caught off guard in this sense.

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Better than accumulation on exchange whose purpose is price discovery would be over the counter buying at wholesale prices.  There's a substantial over the counter market.  Even if he got a large amount of bitcoins selling at 5x would be difficult due to fact that the market depth is so thin.  He wouldn't have to sell much before exhausting demand, dropping price, and reducing the value of his remaining holdings. He would want to wait until the size of the market had increased to the point that unloading would not cause a big splash.


This is true, and exactly what I said the long term goal would have to be.  Did you bother to read it?

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Hidden orders wouldn't help much.  They are not that well hidden.   Traders can test the waters with market order.   They'll notice if an order fills at a price that isn't listed.

Bitcoin is risky regardless of trading strategy.  For a big player it comes down to a  buy and hold proposition, a highly risky one.  


So?

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Big players know market manipulation when they see it.  They are not going to get in this market while schemes are in place.  That may be accounting for the weak volume on Mt. Gox.  Big players know trading on this exchange is worse than trading on the stock market of a third world country.   The lack of credibility is very damaging and is retarding growth.  

It only takes one big market maker to do the job.  If others come along later a see that some bigwig has already set up his system, maybe they do look for another market, but so what?  Again, this is a long view speculation, the speculation being that the bigwig is betting on the long term success of bitcoin.  Isn't that what we all are doing?  The suppression of voltility imply mimics a larger & mroe mature currency market, which is what small businesses want to see before diving in. By encouraging these small businesses to dive in, the invetor wills his prediction to become reality as the market really does mature under his watch and voltility really does stableize just as the bigwig is ready to withdraw his deliberate support and start to take his profits.  Notice it's not in his best interest to take all his prifits in any particular time frame.

Quote
One thing that we know from is history is that every market that has been created has had to deal with manipulation and insider trading. Somebody is always going to find a way to rig the market somehow.  But then at some point they get busted and then we figure out how to prevent people from doing that again.   It would be nice if we could catch these people and expose them now so we could move ahead.  

We actually don't want that.
2672  Economy / Economics / Re: Price stickiness at $5 USD/BTC? on: May 25, 2012, 09:02:42 PM
Maybe there's a big player buying them up progressively, in greater quantities when the price is towards $4.80, and in lesser quantities (or zero) when the price moves towards $5.20.

The BitCoin economy has grown significantly, more services have been developed, there is greater liquidity with things like BitInstant, Bit-Pay, foreign currency trading/arbitrage bots have been deployed, etc. and therefore more capital has moved into bitcoins. This has resulted in it taking at least 10-20x as much capital to move the price $.10 as it did 12 months ago.

Additionally, there is tremendous potential buying still sitting on the sidelines. I have had numerous discussions with people whose net worth is in excess of $100m and even helped one make a five figure bitcoin investment. BitCoin has made a proof of concept and proven itself worthy of additional capital which is starting to flow in. I know of at least 4-5 potential six figure bitcoin investors that are seriously sniffing around and other VCs who are looking for some serious BitCoin related businesses to invest in.

I'm glad you brought up the fact that big players are coming in. That's another reason why we should have more volatility. Market cap of bitcoin is roughly $45 million right now.  It wouldn't take anything for those big players to move this market.  If a big player bought any significant amount of bitcoins the price would soar.  Volume is roughly 30k bitcoins a day which is about $150k of bitcoins.  $150k is pocket change for "people whose net worth is in excess of $100m."  You can't have all of the activity described above and not have significant price variation.  So far the only thing we haven't ruled out market manipulation by insider trading.    Those players may realize this happening and be wary of entering the market now.  Those guys are professionals and study trading patterns and fundamentals under a microscope.  Why would they buy if the market is rigged?  Arbitrage bots don't explain it.


I think that I can explain it.  The Price stickiness at just under $5 (i.e. price drops to just below $5 per btc, and then recovers) imlies that there is a hidden buy order at around $4.90. (or more likely a bot) There is no way for us to know how big this buy order actually is, but assuming that it's actually just one major player iwth the buyorder, the past several months have already shown that it's someone well heeled & with a tolerance for risk.  It could be just about anyone with a couple million dollars in their petty spending account, but there is one particular billionare that comes to mind for me.  If correct, it means that someone is quietly both supporting bitcoin & intentionally damping voltility; perhaps with a /exchangecompanion sell order at $5.10 or so, thus range bounding the price.  Obviously if true, both the buy and sell orders are delayed execution type orders which would be likely if the intent is to suppress voltility and not invest per se, because it gives other speculators a chance to soak up the price movements before the bigwig's bot kicks in.  This makes sense for any major player with the funds to be able to dominate this little market, because it would not only allow said bigwig to quietly build up a substantioal amount of bitcoin wealth over time, without sending the price to the moon; it also allows the bigwig to profit later because suppressing voltility is what helps the (more risk adverse) small business type economy to mature.  Eventually, it then becomes in the bigwig's own interest to remove the top limit and leak the info that said bigwig has been investing in bitcoin; thus permitting the btc price to double or triple on that news alone.

Think about it, if the news came out today that some semi-famous investment billionare was buying bitcoins; say perhaps one that has a history of picking major tech/Internet winners while young, who had a well known and strong libertarian streak, who was highly tolerant towards risks (a venture capitalist, perhaps), a history in the online currency/money markets and a well-known connection to the cutting edge of the Interent; then the 'hangers on' that follow investors like that one would flood into bitcoin in short order, thus sending the exchange price back towards it's record in short order.  Said billionare then sells half his accummulation of bitcoins at four or five times the price he bought them for, restablelizes the price at a higher price point, makes a killing and still has a fortune left in bitcoin.  And bitcoin also gains withthe suddenly public knowledge that bitcoin has the very kind of backing that detractors claim that it does not because that isn't explicit.
2673  Economy / Goods / Re: Come in and Trade Ammo or Talk about Guns! on: May 25, 2012, 08:34:12 PM
I need another gun like I need a third shoe.

That would just mean that you should buy them in pairs, like deuling sets.
2674  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Very Rich Address? on: May 25, 2012, 03:33:20 PM
Such as?
2675  Economy / Goods / Re: AMMO Sale on: May 25, 2012, 03:37:40 AM
But I need .22LR and .306 for my guns!  Grin

I'm just selling ammo for guns I don't have anymore.



I'll make you a trade.

120rnds federal .223 for 500rnds of .22lr and 50rnds of .30-06


So you want 120 Rnds of federal .223?

Second Question how did you know I had 120 Rnds of federal .223 next to this laptop?    Huh  Huh  Huh



Webcam hack?
2676  Economy / Goods / Re: AMMO Sale on: May 25, 2012, 02:35:23 AM
armor piercing rounds

AKA: Cop killer's.

One of the only types of ammo that can pierce a cop's bullet proof-vest.

Fun fact I thought I'd share.

A false fact.  Only bullets designed to pierce body armor in handgun calibers are considered 'armor piercing' under US law, as a standard velocity deer rifle in full metal jacket can defeat all but the best of body armor that is available.  One such example would be the FN Five-Seven series (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FN_5.7%C3%9728mm) because the weapons were designed for the bullet, and the bullet was designed specifically to be used by military users who often needed more penentration because other militaries use light body armor.  As such, the standard velocity bullets for these weapons require a special import license, and a reduced velocity round is sold in the US.  Because of this handicapped nature in the US market, the Five-Seven handguns don't have the "stopping power" that they do for European police users (and irony like I have never seen) so the current police choice is the 10mm and will remain so because the 10mm & 9mm are cheaper.
2677  Economy / Goods / Re: AMMO Sale on: May 25, 2012, 02:26:14 AM
You seem to know quite a bit about weapons, as I see your hundreds of cool listings, well anyway I have a question if you know and don't mind answering if not, well free bump. A friend of mine had some relative die, and he inherited some interesting stuff. But one of the things was some armor piercing rounds, I don't remember what they were exactly, but they had green tips. Is that kind of thing legal in the U.S?

Any super-sonic high power rifle round is 'armor piercing' since the usual definition of that term is that it can defeat a class II body armor vest, but it's meaningless these days since most police are issued a class III vest and the military uses Class IV 'dragonskin' vests.  Only the class IV vests stand any chance of stoping a 30-06 standard velocity hunting round, but even if it succeeded, the wearer would likely have life threatening internal injuries due to the kick in the chest he just got.  Whether or not they are marketable in the US has less to do with the reality of their armor piercing ability and everything to do with their construction.  Generally, green dotted ammo is military surplus stuff, full metal jacketed, and thus is just fine for sale, but I don't recommend you sale it unless you know for sure.  I have caseloads of green dotted rounds for an old pre-soviet Russian rifle.  It just a color-coding that generally means standard rifle velocity.
2678  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BitFury Design, Licensing, Mass production on: May 25, 2012, 01:37:40 AM
I can't disprove you, and didn't intend to.  I was just asking what your price point was, should the community prove both willing and able to hit that price point.  I consider compatition a good thing, but it's still replication of work and if it can reasonablely be avoided, benefits all concerned.  Replication of work can't always be reasonablely be avoided.  I'm personally not interested in a fpga solution, even though I would consider it technically superior.  I'm personally interested in an asic solution, because I can use the waste heat to warm my home in winter, so I believe that basement mining operations will always be a factor, because professional mining operations not only have to deal with the overhead of dumping heat, they also have to outperform the basement miners to such a degree to overcome the economic advantages of co-generation.
2679  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum on: May 25, 2012, 12:58:22 AM
Thanks, MoonShadow! That was helpful.  Following up on one thing you said earlier:
Quote
Once the economy actually starts to recover, there is no practical process for the Fed to recall that liquidity, and thus a future of massive price inflation is already baked into the cake.
Is that correct? I guess I'm remembering reading stories about the "balancing act" or whatever the Fed has to walk, i.e. fighting deflation now by growing the money supply and then shrinking the money supply when the economy starts to recover.  My understanding is that they CAN shrink the money supply by using some combination of these three: (1) raising reserve requirements; (2) raising the discount rate; and (3) selling government securities. (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/08/fight-recession.asp#axzz1vgv6S4Xm)

Thereortically yes, but here's the problem with that...

1) would shove many marginal banks into insolvency.  The federal reserve exists to prevent this, they are not really going to ever do this to any degree that would really matter.

2) would do pretty much the same thing as above, so again, not going to do it to any effective degree and

3) would, for many reasons, increase the effective interest rate that the government pays to it's own banks for rollover debt financing.  Which would bankrupt the government which holds a monopoly on force within the same nation that said banks reside.  I can't really see that one happening either.


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I'm wondering if the real problem isn't that we can't have it all, i.e. a growing economy with low inflation without first suffering the painful (for some) deflationary deleveraging that's trying to occur. If the feds print enough money to trigger a "recovery" (really another bogus bubble, no?), an extremely painful inflation will kick in. But if they then put on the brakes enough to stop the inflation, they'll also stop the recovery. There's no sweet spot.  The physics don't work.


Well, there is a sweet spot, it's just always moving and we don't know what it is.  And we can't know what it is except in hindsight.  That's the 'fatal conceit' that Hayak talked about.


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We need to back up (deflate) and change course (reallocate) by allowing all this bad debt to be liquidated.  But the Feds don't want to allow that (to protect certain parties) and so the economy will likely continue to stall for a while as they put on the gas just enough to keep us from slipping backwards but not enough to actually move forwards since the road ahead leads over a hyper-inflationary cliff. Is that basically the Japan "Lost Decade(s)" story or is there something different going on there?


Close enough.

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So... how does this end? Also what the hell should I be doing to protect myself? And don't say investing more in Bitcoin.  I'm also trying to stay married and my wife is not completely sold on "Mario Money" as she calls it. (I know. It sounds like a compliment, but that's not how she means it.)  Wink

There are actually better 'catastrophy' investments than bitcoin.  Silver is one, to a point.  So are bullets for coo=mmon calibers even if you don't own a gun, because of the varoius commodites used in the product as well as teh practical usefullness of the item in teh worst of conditions.  Obviously this should come after a well stocked pantry & a couple of cans of kerosene.  “In the house of the wise are stores of choice food and oil, but a foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
2680  Other / Off-topic / Re: I wonder if this could work.... on: May 24, 2012, 10:41:18 PM
Twist on the idea to consider: capsule hotel bus. You could probably fit about two dozen capsules on a standard sized bus. The "hotel" can travel to where it is needed (follow conventions and service those who either couldn't afford a room, missed reserving before the hotel filled up, or just need a place to stay for one night), all the buses can be cleaned and serviced in one location instead of having cleaning staff for every hotel you own, and you don't have to pay land related expanses like taxes. Just pay for parking at the location. Electricity and water may be a problem though, but patrons can use the convention center bathrooms, and electricity may be able to be provided by onboard batteries, or bought off the hotel using extension cords.
Figure if we're thinking way out there, might as well thing WAY out there Smiley

Interesting.  A capsule RV.
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