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2761  Local / إستفسارات و أسئلة المبتدئين / Re: افضل محفظة لتقليل الرسوم on: February 16, 2021, 12:55:54 PM
الحل الذي ألجأ أنا إليه عادة هو أن أقوم بتحويل البيتكوين إلى عملة أخرى رسومها رخيصة مثل TRX, LTC, XRP, Doge ثم أقوم بتحويلها إلى محفظة Atomic المتعددة العملات ثم أقوم بتحويل هذه العملات إلى بيتكوين داخل المحفظة ثم بعد ذلك أقوم بإرسال البيتكوين من هناك.

 اخي يحى اعتقد ان هده الطريقة ستكلفك اكثر من الارسال مباشرة من المنصة, طبعا هدا يعتمد على ال exchange الذي تستخدمه محفظة Atomic ولكن لو كان Changlly شيب شيفت مثلا, فأنت تدفع رسوم عالية مقابل فارق السعر, يعني لو كان سعر البتكوين = 100 ايثيريوم فعند تحويلك ايثيريوم للبتكوين من المحفظة نفسها سوف يتم احتساب سعر اعلى مثل 101 ايثيريوم لكل بتكوين, لقد قدمت شخصيا بتجربة هدا الشي في محفظة Coinomi باسختدام العديد من خدمات التحويل التي تستخدمها المنصة كان فارق دائما شاسع.

نظرا لان فرق السعر سيبب لك خسارة بالنسبة بدلا من رقم تابت يعني كلما زاد المبلغ كلما زادت خسارتك, في حال كانت القيمة صغيرة جدا ربما يكون فارق السعر فيه اقل خسارة من دفع عمولة كبيرة للمنصات, فالامر بالمجمل  يعتمد على العملة نفسها, القيمة, تكاليف التحويل مقابل تكاليف الارسال من المنصة.



اريد التشديد على نقطة جمع ال UTXO وهي مهمة جدا جدا بغض النظر عن المحفظة التي تستخدمها, انت تدفع مقابل حجم المعاملة كل مازاد عدد المخرجات والمدخلات كلما زاد حجم التحويل وزادت عمولته, لذلك من المهم جدا جمع معاملاتك عندما تكون التكاليف منخفضة, مثلا ان تستقلل 20 ساتوشي في تحويل, و مئة الف ساتوشي في تحويل اخر, و 200 الف ساتوشي في تحويل اخر, يجب عليك جمعها عن طريق ارسال رصيدك كله لعنوان واحد (يفضل ان يكون عنوان جديد) وبهدا تكون لديك UTXO وسيكون الارسال منها ارخص بكثير.

ان كنت لاتريد مراقبة الوضع الحالي لتكاليف التحويل وكنت غير مستعجل على استخدام تلك القيم يمكن ارسالها بتكاليف منخفضة مثلا 2-4 ساتوشي واتركها, سوف تتأكد مع الوقت.

احسنت اخي خالد مشكور على المجهود.
2762  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining Strategies? % to hodl or upgrade on: February 16, 2021, 11:49:14 AM
My estimate from the past was that its better to hodl the coins in an uptrend and upgrade miners on a downtrend, but after looking at all the data and running simulations, I'm not really seeing that as clear.

This is more like it, at least based on my own experience, when the mania of a bull market starts it's always better to hold the coin, buying the gear should have been done prior to that, mining works best against hodl when BTC is not doing much (sideways market) when holding the coin makes you no profit in BTC nor fiat, but mining generates passive BTC during that time.

Think about the guy who paid 0.5BTC to buy S19 pro a couple of months ago, he is far from making that 0.5BTC today, he will probably never get there, S19 pro gets 0.0022BTC a month and it's only going to go down, current ROI estimation is 22 months and it can't get any better but can get a lot worse.

There is so much logic involved, a simple way to look at it is by going back to the 2017 era, while the price did hit 20k it only lasted above 10k for two months (Dec 2017 - Jan 2018) so those who bought their mining gears based on 15k or 20k profitability were not in a great financial situation,  the super bull cycle is very short-lived, if bitcoin price goes to 100k by April, with coins in your hand you can sell for 100k, your miner, on the other hand, will only be able to utilize that for a few weeks or months before going back to the median price range, of course, this is based on the assumption that we all agree that the price won't go up forever and it will have 2-4 months peak before dipping 50% to stay there for 1-2 years, all previous cycles behaved the same.

I know many of you don't believe in charts but bear with me for a minute.



You can see that since BTC passed the 30$ level in 2013, it remained within a very neat channel of growth, what's interesting about it is the 3 different colored zones, the red zone represents the peak of each cycle, BTC has only stayed in that red zone for a bit less than 10% of the duration of its existence, it stayed in the yellow zone for 20% of the time, and was in the green lower zone for 70% of the time.

You may say this time is different, Elon musk is here, mastercard is going to process crypto, you can come up with all theories that say "this time is different", but on the scale of probability, chances are "this time is not different", which suggests that we are getting very close to the top before heading back to the red zone a lot faster than most people would expect.

Now back to mining, IMO you want to buy gears in the green area coming from yellow, that's when prices have fallen over 50-80%, grama is selling her gears for cheap on Ebay because she can't afford the bill and she thinks bitcoin is going to zero, the mining board of the forum is very quiet and no youtube adds of how to have a 2x hashrate on your miner.

When going out from the yellow entering the red, you want your assets to be as liquid as possible, you want to sell near the top, get rid of some of your miners for premium, sit back, relax and wait to accumulate more efficient gears at a much cheaper price a few months later.

Buying gear near the red zone means you paid for the gears based on the assumption that we will stay in the yellow-red for a very long period of time, it's the reason why people now pay incredibly high prices for mining gears that they will receive many months later. Undecided

Buying geas now means you are doing exactly what noobs are doing, go check Facebook, telegram, and the hardware market place in this forum, EVERYONE wants to buy mining gear, everyone wants to be rich, everyone thinks it's worth paying 12k for an S19 pro because it will be making them over $100 daily when bitcoin goes to 200k and stays there forever.
2763  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S9-Hashboard Diagnosis and repair on: February 16, 2021, 10:43:47 AM
You can find the repair manual on Zuesbtc https://www.zeusbtc.com/NewsDetails.asp?ID=171

Since most of the problems are dead chips you will need to use their tool or another tool that tells you which chips you need to inspect, you will also need a few more tools for that, Zeusbtc also have some video/written tutorials that can be found here > https://www.zeusbtc.com/News.asp?Sort=REPAIR+TUTORIALS

The forum is full of great details as well,  so if you have a specific question you can always ask in the mining support section.
2764  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 16, 2021, 02:05:21 AM
Given what is happening with India looking to ban all crypto that is not governed by their Central Bank -- they may want to rethink that...

I thought it's the main reason why they are targeting India and Africa because that's where the most "banning" is happening, no?

... which might actually have a major efficiency boost since they can take advantage of the new process instead of tweaking the old one.

MicroBT M30 is almost as efficient as the S19 pro it uses a Samsung chip of 8nm, so the 7nm Bitmain uses still has some room to improve.

There also something else to keep in mind, S19 custom firmware which will probably hit the market soon, will indeed bring in a good amount of hashrate, given how well the custom firmware did with the S17s series, I can only imagine it will do the same if not better with the S19, it might bring the S19 pro efficiency to below 25w/th.

I wish I was 44 not 64 as I really want to see how all this is working in 2050.
for me to do that I have to be 93 years old. which would tie the  known record for oldest male in my family.

I wish you live long enough to see that while staying healthy and happy, IMO 2050 and 2030 won't be very different, BTC now is in high school, sort of getting close to becoming the boring grown-up man who goes to work, get married, have 3 kids and start thinking of his retirement plan, in the next cycle or at most the one after that BTC should be in the multitrillion market grade, the block rewards will be too small and the whole ecosystem would have been so large and everything will be easily predicted.

In other words, I believe that in 2030, bitcoin price will stop doing 500% up and 70% down, mining won't be as profitable and crazy as it is now, everything will mature and become boring, I would just enjoy the end of the discovery era we are in now and not worry about 2050.
2765  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17 Pro Kernel log information on: February 16, 2021, 01:48:42 AM
I mixed and matched a lot of S17 pro hash boards, never had a problem, also the hash boards seem to be identical in the kernel log,

Code:
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:616:get_product_id: product_id[0] = 0
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:616:get_product_id: product_id[1] = 0
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:616:get_product_id: product_id[2] = 0
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:560:_set_project_type: project:0
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:585:_set_project_type: Project type: Antminer S17 Pro
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:596:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [0] PCB Version: 0x0101
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:597:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [0] BOM Version: 0x0103
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:596:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [1] PCB Version: 0x0101
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:597:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [1] BOM Version: 0x0103
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:596:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [2] PCB Version: 0x0101
2021-02-15 20:56:55 driver-btm-api.c:597:dump_pcb_bom_version: Chain [2] BOM Version: 0x0103
2021-02-15 20:56:57 driver-btm-api.c:1802:bitmain_board_init: Fan check passed.
2021-02-15 20:56:58 board.c:36:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: chain[0] PIC jump to app
2021-02-15 20:57:00 board.c:40:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: Check chain[0] PIC fw version=0xb9
2021-02-15 20:57:01 board.c:36:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: chain[1] PIC jump to app
2021-02-15 20:57:03 board.c:40:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: Check chain[1] PIC fw version=0xb9
2021-02-15 20:57:04 board.c:36:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: chain[2] PIC jump to app
2021-02-15 20:57:06 board.c:40:jump_and_app_check_restore_pic: Check chain[2] PIC fw version=0xb9

The same ID, the same PCB, BOM and PIC FW version.

I highly doubt that there are any voltage settings stored in the hash board itself, makes no sense to me.

I don't know if this hashboard is supported on Pickit 3 but from the old miner's like t9+ and s9 they can dump and flash the pic firmware using pickit 3.

Yes, it can, another member here confirmed it.
2766  Local / منصات التبادل / Re: ملاحظة حول منصة كوكوين on: February 16, 2021, 01:11:43 AM
شكرا على التنبيه اخ اوميقا, بالرغم من اني اعرف كلمة المرور الخاصة بالتداول الا اني قررت الانحساب من هده المنصة بسبب هده السياسة التي اقل مايمكن ان يقال عنها (غبية), الغريب في الامر انني قمت بالغاء امر بيع كان معلق ولم يتم سؤال عن كلمة السر الخاصة بالتداول, ولكن عند سحب المبلغ بعد تحويلها من  trading account to main account طلبو مني الرقم السري الخاص بالتداول, اعتقد ان هدا فقد سوء تنظيم من قبلهم, ولا انصح احد بالتعامل مع هده المنصة حتى يقومو باصلاح هده المشكلة.

اتمنى ان تتمكن من استخراج اموالك من هناك واتمنى ان لاتكون مبلغ كبير لانك قد تخسره. ارجو ان تبقينا في الصورة.
2767  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Kucoin - Forgot trading password on: February 16, 2021, 12:14:58 AM
Can you trade using API or any third-part bot? If that possible  you can trade ignore kucoin traing GUI.
If you can withdraw it will not be considered a problem. Withdraw, create a new account and do not use trading password.
It will be annoying if you cannot withdraw your money.

He can't, I had some coins on that exchange and after reading Omega's post in the Arabic section I went ahead and decided to withdraw them as I can't trust an exchange with such behavior/rules, luckily I did remember my trading password, the weird thing is that it's also required for withdrawal, so if you forget it, your funds will be stuck there forever until you do the KYC b.s.

I got my funds out of that exchange, and probably never going back to it, ever again.
2768  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17 Pro Kernel log information on: February 15, 2021, 11:04:39 PM
It is significant, the design of a single busbar connecting all 3 hash boards results in an almost exactly equal voltage across all 3 hash boards, here is how one of my miners reads.

Code:
2021-02-15 22:37:56 voltage[0] = 1800
2021-02-15 22:37:56 voltage[1] = 1800
2021-02-15 22:37:56 voltage[2] = 1800

And then once the hash boards are initiated mine shows

Code:
2021-02-15 22:38:21 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 0, voltage = 20.255039
2021-02-15 22:38:23 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 1, voltage = 20.083593
2021-02-15 22:38:24 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 2, voltage = 20.065224

Here is another miner:

Code:
2021-02-15 22:37:13 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 0, voltage = 21.381679
2021-02-15 22:37:14 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 1, voltage = 21.259218
2021-02-15 22:37:15 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 2, voltage = 21.234726

Yours shows:

Code:
2021-02-15 20:57:41 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 0, voltage = 21.185742
2021-02-15 20:57:43 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 1, voltage = 21.259218
2021-02-15 20:57:44 power_api.c:37:_get_avg_voltage: chain = 2, voltage = 21.216357

Notice how in mine chain 0 has the highest voltage reading and chain 2 has the lowest, I checked a few and they all are the same, this is logical because chain 0 is the closest to the PSU feed and the voltage will always drop slightly the further it gets from the source, yours is a bit strange, the middle one has a higher voltage than the rest and your chain 0 has the lowest voltage reading.

I think you need to tighten the screws that attach the busbar to the hash boards, it could be the reason why your temp sensors have a problem.
2769  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Problems with T17s from Alibaba on: February 15, 2021, 10:49:43 PM
They are terribly glued but I doubt shipping with proper protection will harm that, it's heat that does, but then shipping them to EU or USA for repair and then shipping them back will probably cost you more than what those hash boards are actually worth, only you know the shipping cost so do run the numbers.

Plan B would be to give them a mobile/pc repair shop, in many cases, the damage is physically obvious which is a heat sink or a few of them that fell off, you need to get something like Arctic silver adhesive and ask them to glue the heatsink for you, all they need is a bit of skill, stable hands, and a heat gun.

If you can't find the bad heatsink do apply some force using your finger, the ones that are too loose will fall off easily, If the problem is beyond that then it's beyond repair, you will need some tools and some training.

Plan C, sell the dead hash boards, some people like wndsnb who are experts in fixings these hash boards might be interested in acquiring your dead hash boards, I don't expect him or anyone else for that matter to offer you a lot since they are taking a risk as some boards can't be fixed, but something is always better than nothing.

Is there any point in trying to dispute the sell in Alibaba and trying to get at least a parcial of the money back? or there's no point?

Chances are slim, but you lose nothing, a few emails back and forth and you may get yourself a refund of some kind.
2770  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: مسابقة: رسوم التحويلات في اوقات التقلبات on: February 15, 2021, 08:22:02 PM
لقد تم التطرق لهدا الموضوع بالتفصيل في مسابقة Chipmixer السابعة يمكنك الاطلاع على الموضوع ومحاولة جمع المعلومات فهيا مبعثرة بعض الشي ولكن باطلاعك على كل التعليقات سوف تكون قد فهمت كل شي تريد فهمه https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300978.0

اعتقد جميع النقاط التي تطرقت اليها موجودة هنا باستتناء هده النقطة فسوف اقوم باجباتك هنا

Quote
وبعد ان يتم بث البلوك كيف يربح بقية المعدنين او بالاصح ماذا يستفيدون من المراجعة اذا كان اول من يربح الجائزة هو اول من يجد البلوك.

بقية المعدنين لايكسبون شي, الشخص الذي يجد البلوك هوا من يكسب جائزة البلوك هي 6.25 حاليا ويكسب تكاليف كل التحويلات, المعدنين الاخرين يكسبون 0 بتكوين,  ولكن يجب عليهم التأكد من صحة المحاولات التي تم ادراجها في البلوك السابقي لانه في حال كان هناك تحويل خاطيء فسوف يجعل كل البلوكات الجديدة خاطئة:

مثلا, عندما تجد ان بلوك وتضيف فيه 1000 تحويل, يجب عليا انا ان اتأكد ان ال 1000 تحويل الذي ادرجتهم انت هم تحويلات صحيحة, لانه في حال انا وجدت بلوك وقمت بالبناء على البلوك الخاص بك فسوف يتم رفض البلوك الخاص بي ايضا من قبل العقد الاخرى لانه مبني على بلوك يحتوي تحويل خاطيء, لذلك من مصلحة الجميع ان يتأكدو من كل التحويلات.

السبب الاخر الذي يفرض عليا مراجعة التحويلات الموجودة في البلوك الخاص بك هوا لتجنب اعادة اضافتها في البلوك الخاص بي, عندما استقبل البلوك الخاص بك اقوم بأخد ال 1000 تحويل وازالتهم من mempool الخاص بي لكي لا اعيد ادراجهم في البلوك لانني ان فعلت ذلك فسوف يتم رفض البلوك الخاص بي.
2771  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Problems with T17s from Alibaba on: February 15, 2021, 02:27:01 PM
seems like a bad psu on machine 3? What are my options? a new psu?

If you did replace the 2 fans on the PSU and saw no difference, i.e you confirmed it's a dead PSU, then your only option would be getting a replacement, unfortunately, bitmain is out of stock so you will need to search for it, where are you located?
2772  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Is this a bargain? Need help recognizing miner! on: February 15, 2021, 12:02:46 AM
If the miners were to be Whatsminer m3 or m3x would $150 per unit be a good price? Electricity over here is about $0.04 per kW. My calculations said I would be making about $2,600 a month with 60 machines.

In theory and based on the current figures you shuold be able to make a net profit of $75 a month per miner,  which means ROI will be 2 months, which is just about perfect, but since these numbers do change, you would never know, however, $150 is indeed a great deal given the fact that they go above for above $200 in China.
2773  Local / التعدين / Re: من اين نحصل على اجهزة الاسك on: February 14, 2021, 11:09:23 PM
cryptostashman

احتاج ان اعرف الى الكميات التي تخطط لشرائها لكي اقترح عليك البائع المناسب, بعض الباعة يشتغلون على الكميات الكبيرة فقط (اسعارهم ارخص طبعا) والبعض الاخر يبيعون اي عدد سواء كان قطعة او 10, لذلك اخبرني بالعدد الذي تنوي شرائه وسوف اقترح عليك, يمكنك ايضا ارسال رسالة خاصة ان كنت لاتريد الافصاح عن اي معلومات هنا.

بالمجمل انا اعتقد ان الشراء الان هوا امر فيه مخاطرة عاليا نظرا لارتفاع الاسعار, الوقت المناسب للشراء قد فات, ولكن لكل منا وجهة نظر.
2774  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 14, 2021, 10:22:44 PM
But in terms of using diff to estimate hashrate, there is no correction. The block reward amount does not come into the equation for diff correction...

Difficulty increases by 10% because of the halving, if not for the halving it would in theory increase by 20%, I think this is getting complicated when it's really simple, and since it isn't a crucial point maybe we should just leave it that way.

They can't deliver those 37k miners until October because they have to wait for the chips.

This is one of the main reasons I base my theory on, so if they can't secure enough chips for 37,000 miners until October, what are the odds that they will be able to get enough chips for 500,000- 1,000,000 miners? even if TMSC pushes its production to the max or beyond its normal production rate, is that going to be enough?

Let's hypnotically imagine that bitmain has to deliver a total of 100,000k miners by October, maybe 37k for riot, 10-20k for individuals orders over their website and some retail and the rest goes to other whales like RIOT, so 100K miners for 10 months is 10K miners a month, they need to increase their production by a factor of 8 to make enough gears to double the current hashrate, is it normal for bitmain to be able to secure enough chips for 10,000*8 = 80,000 miners a month when there is no chip shortage? it's unlikely that chip production has dropped by close to 87% because this is the only way bitmain is going to get 8 times the chips.

In other words:

No chip shortage = 80,000 gears
With chip shoratge = 10,000 gears
Shortage % = -87.5%

Do we really have a -87.5% shortage? I highly doubt it, so maybe the normal supply rate without shortage is just 2-3 times higher than now at best, so instead of 10k miners, they will make 30k miners? that's just about 400k miners per year.

The flip side of this, maybe Bitmain decides not to expand production even though demand is sky high, and then sell fewer miners at a much higher price point. Just seems like in the past, they do the opposite, and sell a ton of gear at prices low enough to try to really hurt their competition.

I believe, that they know very well that this demand won't last long and it's too risky to expand, they have made this mistake once with the overproduction of S9s which they had to sell for insane discounts, the only way I see them expand is if they

... secure contracts with all those giant >100MW farms.

And that is a big IF.

Anyway, these posts will be interesting to read when it's 2022.
2775  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Problems with T17s from Alibaba on: February 14, 2021, 04:02:10 AM
2 dead fans usually mean a dead PSU and not just bad fans that need replacement, you can double check by using the 3rd working fan in one of the bad fan's slots, if it works, then it's a matter of fan replacement, if it does not, then it's a bad PSU, which is more likely than not.
2776  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 14, 2021, 03:15:56 AM
Taking the 1/2ing into account would make 2020-2021 15.5T to 42.8T = 176%.

I have not had enough sleep for days, but I don't think my math is that bad, 15.5 to 21.4 means we had a 5.9 hashrate increment, if not for the halving we would (in theory) have had double that which is 11.8, so 15.5T + 11.8T = 27.3T  or 76%. I think your mistake was multiplying the total difficulty of 21.4 by 2 to make up for the halving, keep in mind that 15.5T of that is the old difficulty which has nothing to do with the theoretical new difficulty, do I make any sense?

In the 1st quarter of 2019, Bitmain had a revenue of >$1 billion. At $2500 a miner, that would be 400,000 miners in a single quarter.

IIRC Q1 2019 was when bitmain got rid of all the S9s they had, the majority of them must have been made prior to that, I highly doubt they made 400,000 in 3 months, also, it was probably easier to make those S9s compared to the S19, seeing that a whale like RIOT blockchain has to wait until October 2021 for a relatively small order of 37,000 miners to be fully delivered suggests that Bitmain is nowhere near making half a million miners in 2021, but well, as you say, they will want to make it work and they could find a way.

So between all the manufacturers, I don't think it is that far-fetched to think we're going to hit another 100% increase.

Given the current situation, I would be very surprised if we hit 40T by Feb 2022, however, this is the lowest number one should expect just to be on the reasonable safe side.

3) 100% increase for the next year and 100% for the next one.
Does this sound logical?
I understand that this I very generic way to do it with many assumptions.

If I was going to buy a mining gear tomorrow, I'd just assume that we will at least hit a 100% difficulty increment every year, bitcoin price will not go past its current levels and my gears will die in 12 months, and then I'll run the numbers based on that, so if, with the assumption that my new miner will make half the profit it makes now and can't ROI before the end of the year, I won't be buying that gear.
2777  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S19 an S19 Pro REG_TYPE = 1 ERROR. on: February 14, 2021, 02:26:00 AM
BitMaxz, seems like you did not disassemble any of the new bitmain shitty gears, the 6pin cable design is long gone, and probably will never return, they now use a busbar like style, you basically have two metal pieces of + - that are directly attached to the hashboards (pain in the butt to take out on the S17 pro version), sometimes if the screws are a bit lose it will cause a hashboard not to run and report 0 Asics especially the one to the most right where torque (if that is the correct term) is at it's lowest, but most certainly doesn't seem like the problem which OP is facing.
2778  Local / إستفسارات و أسئلة المبتدئين / Re: seed احتاج طريقة لاستخراج مفتاح خاص عن طريق on: February 14, 2021, 01:48:27 AM

اعتقد ان المحفظة التانية او الحساب التاني يستعمل نفس السيد ولكن باختلاف قيمة ال Account والتي تكون افتراضيا قيمتها 0, ويمكن للمحفظة ان تنشاء لك حساب جديد (مجموعة جديدة من العناوين) تحت حساب جديد قيمته 1 او 2 او غيرها, يبدو ان ماحدث هنا هوا ان العنوان الاخر كان موجود على الحساب رقم 1, الاحتمال الاخر هوا كون ان العنوان الذي يبحث عنه قد تم استخدامه ك change من قبل وهنا يجب تغير الاعدادات من external الى internal بتغير القيمة من 0 الى 1, واعتقد ولهدا السبب طلب منه الاخ اوميقا تغير هده القيمة عند تغير رقم الحساب, في العادة بتجربة 0,0, 0,1, 1,0 و 1,1 سوف تحصل على العنوان الذي تبحت عنه.
2779  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 14, 2021, 01:13:52 AM
I can help you with the numbers and then feel free to play with them as you see fit, I will only go back to as far as 3 years ago, as I believe values from previous years are very, very different and probably make little to no sense today (in fact even values from less year make little sense, but do hold a lot more weight than the old era when a thousand S9s would make a whole lot of difference).

Difficulty values from 15-2-2018 to 15-2-2021.

Code:
2.874674234
2.967853338
3.007383866
3.2335814
3.290605989
3.381698122
3.462542391
3.494288843
3.511060553
3.796188328
3.839316899
3.943557223
4.022059196
4.138123233
4.143878475
4.219142059
4.306949574
4.415593342
4.940704886
5.024546461
5.077499035
5.172892177
5.363678461
5.199615302
5.178671069
5.595791656
5.949437372
5.949437372
6.19783992
6.389316884
6.505039002
6.72722547
6.971177231
7.019199231
7.031329606
7.152633352
7.364268059
7.454968648
7.427362643
7.182852314
7.183013626
7.184404943
7.175974755
6.653303141
6.194015746
5.646403852
5.621092246
5.106422925
5.248509607
5.618595849
5.862614532
5.883988431
5.836655169
5.814661936
5.894008795
6.061518831
6.06408179
6.07184605
6.071216044
6.068891542
6.368919654
6.379265451
6.379562392
6.393023717
6.357721118
6.353030563
6.554050172
6.702169884
6.703779555
6.704632681
6.747104133
7.459680721
7.411481914
7.409399249
7.868124125
7.93471322
8.58744535
9.064159826
9.033161131
9.013786946
9.890230142
9.985348008
10.01679887
10.18348843
10.68557238
10.77199666
10.95842971
11.89059496
12.01767456
12.7598194
12.87476027
13.00809167
13.06910849
13.69148004
13.66989171
12.72000527
12.79578964
12.97323597
12.95595155
12.87684209
12.89283761
12.94859342
13.031658
13.79878383
13.8190097
14.77636754
15.20380671
15.46609894
15.52113495
15.54674577
15.50935056
15.48691344
16.0767726
16.55292397
14.14355904
13.91252405
14.3974826
14.71521406
15.6248434
15.95865233
16.0798316
16.10480749
15.21370306
15.13804325
14.47708913
13.73235211
14.26597408
15.78474431
15.78461889
15.78421755
16.57039522
17.34594887
17.30915518
16.84756161
16.87170719
16.94780233
17.34094534
17.55799304
17.44533271
17.34599781
19.14829089
19.3146564
19.3007089
19.29808719
19.52968552
19.99733599
17.86527354
16.78777961
17.04059881
17.59680106
18.15852838
19.15715472
19.1446679
18.67016856
18.60003415
18.59959305
19.36516671
20.6074183
20.73708601
20.82353115
21.38445104
21.43439596

The above was extracted from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/difficulty to CSV format, and then I stripped all double values to keep only the difficulty target of every epoch rather than every day's difficulty values which is the default on that webiste.

A percentage representation of each adjustment of the above values:

Code:
1.331956946
7.521405447
1.763511764
2.768247978
2.390641204
0.9168538
0.479974924
8.120844708
1.136101987
2.715074769
1.99063861
2.885686943
0.139078543
1.816259447
2.081169909
2.522522398
11.89220798
1.696955745
1.053877685
1.878742695
3.68819372
-3.058780657
-0.402803513
8.054587397
6.319851363
1.68098E-11
4.175227545
3.089414481
1.811181393
3.415605465
3.626335438
0.688865003
0.172817072
1.725189302
2.958836236
1.231630736
-0.370303434
-3.292020885
0.002245794
0.01936954
-0.117340091
-7.283632284
-6.903148491
-8.840983248
-0.448278349
-9.156037625
2.782509093
7.051263496
4.343054554
0.364579645
-0.804441795
-0.376812271
1.364599697
2.842039125
0.042282463
0.128036853
-0.010375847
-0.038287269
4.943705299
0.162441945
0.004654783
0.211007025
-0.552205039
-0.073777302
3.164153033
2.259972203
0.024017158
0.012726037
0.633464267
10.56122114
-0.646124261
-0.028100514
6.191121038
0.846314748
8.226285083
5.551295613
-0.341991937
-0.21447846
9.72336268
0.961735621
0.314970105
1.664100137
4.930372813
0.808794163
1.730719522
8.506376099
1.068740444
6.175444716
0.900803206
1.035602974
0.469068181
4.762157675
-0.157677097
-6.94874885
0.595788829
1.386755612
-0.133231368
-0.610603236
0.124219274
0.432455703
0.641495005
5.886632588
0.146577192
6.927832452
2.892721613
1.725174671
0.355849349
0.165006088
-0.24053396
-0.144668353
3.80875867
2.9617348
-14.55552463
-1.633499688
3.485769707
2.206854294
6.181556946
2.13639857
0.759332763
0.155324271
-5.533157905
-0.497313571
-4.366179313
-5.144245652
3.885874523
10.64610253
-0.000794557
-0.002542604
4.980783318
4.680356995
-0.212116908
-2.666759675
0.143317924
0.451022212
2.319728507
1.251648597
-0.641646922
-0.569406781
10.39025315
0.868826969
-0.072212033
-0.013583499
1.200110297
2.394562249
-10.66173242
-6.031219879
1.505971658
3.26398299
3.192212707
5.499489413
-0.065180999
-2.478493458
-0.375649598
-0.002371485
4.116077469
6.414876856
0.629228298
0.416862515
2.693682861
0.233557184

Simplified figures:

Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 :

2.8T to 6T = 114.29%

Feb 2019 to Feb 2020

6T to 15.5 = 158.33%

Feb 2020 to Feb 2021
15.5T to  21.4T = 38.06%

Keep in mind that the last year had the halving event, so the easiest thing to assume here would be doubling that increment, so it's more like 76% rather than 36%, I believe with a very high probability that the trend of difficulty will keep rising regardless of price, but will rise a lot slower than it used to.

It can't do 114% like 2018, can't do 158% like 2019, and can't do 76% like 2020, so maybe 50%? this will take us from 21.4T to maybe 32T, 50% of the current hashrate is about 80EH, each 1EH is 10,000 S19 pro, so 80EH is 800,000 S19/S19 pro, just about a million mining gears, I would be very surprised if we could go beyond that.
2780  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Is this a bargain? Need help recognizing miner! on: February 14, 2021, 12:26:16 AM
I just got an offer to buy some used ASIC miners for a very good price, possibly.
But I can't find anythng about a miner called M3 v2.9! Sad

Because there is probably no miner named M3 v2.9, there is only M3 and M3x which some people call M3 v2, this could be some modded miner with some weird brand based on the M3x, a bit overclocked with an extra 1 or 2 terahash, there is plenty of such gears in the Chinese market, the other possibility which is more likely is that your source is a scammer.
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