You are a waste of time honestly, I would suggest that instead of wasting your time and everybody else's here showing off your understanding of statistics you should learn some business skills and try to revive your dead pool because apparently known of your alleged fields of expertise did you any good regarding your whole bitcoin business career, it also has to do with your attitude although I am not sure you can fix that just by reading some online books.

Meanwhile, I am putting you on ignore since I don't need the extra negativity coming from a random person online.

I did not cherry pick the period,  I made the test because of this topic, I know the data could have given better results than PPS, but it also shows how great short term variance is, and it clearly shows the PPLNS sucks short term as shown in my data.

The numbers are what they are, your understanding of statistics has exactly zero value to me and my earnings, PPS+ has little variance and everyone should be using them if they want steady payouts which I believe the most folks are doing regardless of your useless statement.

After all, who would take a business mining advice from you given how terribly you failed managing a mining pool business despite having early mover advantage?  

@wndsnb I think the missing point here is the short-term variance, of course, if you measure PPLNS vs PPS against infinity then this whole discussion would be useless and PPLNS is the winner.

I went out of my way to test this in real-life and pointed about 800TH to viabtc PPLNS just for the sake of this topic, here is a week-long sample starting from 2021-12-12 to 2021-12-18, and here are my earnings:

Day                             Total
2021-12-18      0.00348205
2021-12-17      0.00421592
2021-12-16      0.0034405
2021-12-15      0.00372157
2021-12-14      0.00352051
2021-12-13      0.00221123
2021-12-12      0.0042225

on the 19th we had some cleaning and maintenance going on, and during that, I switched that 800th back to PPS+ and got the following:

Day                              Total                      
2021-12-21      0.00422157                
2021-12-20      0.00446968                


So it's an average 0.0035 PPLNS vs 0.0043 PPS+ , of course, 20 and 21 were likely lucky days for viabtc ("see the irony"?) and that's why the rewards were 0.00440, but still the base "promised," hashrate you get is almost always identical to what their PPS calculator which shows 0.00403BTC, so even if we were to work with that number I would still get at least 0.02821BTC in that week as opposed to 0.02481428 on PPLNS so that's a total "temporary loss" of 0.0033957 or 166$ based on current exchange rate.

** I know 7 days vs 2 days isn't exactly accurate which is why I used 0.00403 and not 0.0043.


Ya I know next month or next week I will likely have a week that nets me 0.0033957*2 - 2% in fees and that I will be earning more in the long run but is it really worth it when all I have to pay is 0.00008064   BTC a week ( at current diff for 800th )?  

Obviously, I can't answer for everyone, but to me, having a day like the 13th where I got only half the rewards I could get on PPS pisses me off slightly, a week like this would really piss me off as I would have been -$444 if I pointed all my miners to PPLNS.

It's not like next week is guaranteed to be a good week that would put me back at breakeven, my accumulative "temp loss" or "lost opportunity" could be in the thousands of dollars for God knows how long, I know I likely won't be mining for 10 years, maybe not even a whole more year, so all these theoretical calculations make no sense to me personally.

The other point is that I use almost MOST of the mining rewards as they come, I can not tolerate short-term variance, this doesn't have to make sense to everyone but I know enough people can relate.

With the same hashrate, obviously, 15 days would yield more blocks if you are talking about splitting the 500ph over 15 days by doing 33.33PH a day then there is no difference as far your chances of hitting a block, 100PH in 12 hours is also just the same, the only factor that would change the probability of finding blocks is if a difficulty change happens during the rental in which can make longer periods and lower hashrate more effective if the change is negative, but the difficulty very rarely drop anyway.

The other factor is the supply and demand, when you place a large order that needs to be filled in a short period of time, you could cause a price increase, and if someone is willing to bid higher it means you will end up getting fewer shares than what you anticipated.

What I expect willi to do is to wait 3 more days before firing that mega order since we are expecting a difficulty drop, also try to split the order into smaller batches between asicboost and non-asicboost and probably spread the duration over 5 days if possible since the average total hashrate available on NH is about 700PH combined, by placing a fixed order at 500PH can easily trigger price increase.

No chance in heaven that any wind will be strong enough to move those connectors if they are tightly plugged in, a strong wind might be able to move the whole miner a few meters and still won't move those connectors, I still remember unplugging about 50 miners straight and my fingers kept hurting for a few days, those connectors are pretty tight unless they go through a dozen plug/unplug attempts which makes them loose.



I tend to believe that your PSU is of bad quality and it was the reason why the pins were burnt, I have tested over 5 different brands of Chinese PSUs, the only "ok" brand was Lianli although I would still rate it at 6 over 10, get the original bitmain PSU as it's rock-solid, if not, then get an EVGA or one of the good PC brands PSUs, avoid the cheap Chinese PSUs at all cost.

Off the top of my head I think Algeria has excessive power and they are adding a fair amount of clean energy every year, so even if we were to assume that selling fossil fuels makes more sense. When you generate more power than you ever use (which isn't something you can taper easily) why not get a few EH worth of mining gears?

The other fact would be owning bitcoin without having to buy it which I believe is the point that person was trying to make, it could be true since a government buying bitcoin directly isn't as simple as it may sound, the same person mentioned about the FBI mining bitcoin back when it first started "probably in the Silkroad era" since they could easily request more "computers" which also makes sense, think of all the implications that an official organization has to go through to buy bitcoin OTC or from an exchange, but mentioning "computers" or "IT infrastructure" in your balance sheet when you actually want to buy mining gears can easily slip by in countries like Algeria and nearly most of the other African countries.

I have seen their youtube channel, they have many videos on how to repair hash boards and all that, while I personally do not think someone will go this far just to scam people for dead hash boards, I wouldn't be sending all 3 hash boards at once, after all, even if they were not scammers -- they might not have what it takes to actually fix those hash boards, so why not just risk 1 hash board instead of 3 just to see how it goes?

Hold my glass, let me edit my post and get rid of that line altogether. 


Not saying this is impossible to happen, just want to remind you that 2016-2017 didn't do half as good as the previous cycle, so it's more likely than not that 2022 does even less, so let's say 6x, so 250k is somehow a lot more reasonable IMO, all you gotta do is make sure you have 4 BTC before we hit 250k to be a millionaire, easy right?

@wndsnb, I believe it's a combination of a dozen things, it's extremely difficult to guess which factor has the most impact on the current situation, everytime I think I got all of this mining shit figured out, I remind myself of this nice pie chart



I saw an interview with the CEO of compassmining who manage a dozen worth of MWs and he claimed that a North African country (on a government level) is getting into BTC mining, a few of those countries are super-rich in oil and gas, so maybe instead of selling those resources, just mine BTC? they can probably get mining gears at a cheaper price given how large their orders can be, they get super cheap power, zero tax, they could squeeze every bit of mining, so I won't be surprised if BTC falls below 30k while difficulty keeps going up.

It could also be because of energy crisis in Khazastan


Source: https://fortune.com/2021/11/24/kazakhstan-bitcoin-crypto-mining-energy-power-crisis-china-xive-shuts-down/

I know the article only talks about 10mw but there are probably other large farms in the area that had to shut down, we also know that a LOT of mining gears migrated from china to Kazakhstan so there is a large amount of hashing going on there, however, I believe most of it will migrate to the U.S, so it's just a matter of time before we see all those gears come back online to push the difficulty to a new ATH despite the price drop in BTC.

I honestly don't see how folks paying $13500 for an S19 pro are ever going to ROI, it seems like the fun is over and the worse is yet to come.

Well, it's a lot better now


If this ends up being a solid drop then all our predictions about the majority of miners being safe at current prices will be nullified, if you can't take a 40% drop in profitability, you shouldn't be mining in the first place, but the majority of these people are newbies that have no clue about anything or people playing with investors money, mining for many folks won't end up pretty.

I think most asic miners are rated at +-5% so 3-4TH missing on an 81TH miner is pretty normal, what's not normal is the diminishing hash rate, this is a very strange problem, I believe your miner is auto-tuning itself and for some reason, it doesn't see the miner at a stable state with the current hashrate so it tunes the frequency to a lower figure just to keep the miner stable.

I don't own a similar gear but speaking from experience with other miners, the tuning part can go wrong at times, so try to flash a different firmware just to make sure the firmware isn't falling at tunning the hash boards.

10 hours of peak sun hours is just impossible regardless of where you live, but then if even if we were to go with the assumption that you do get 10 hours, what happens in the remaining 14 hours? if your miner sits idle it will never ROI, so you still need to pull from the grid, mining solar is pretty much useless unless you it has tax benefits of some kind like how things are with our friend phill, but just go and buy a few panels to mine bitcoin won't work.

Not sure all 4 fans will pass the fan-check if 2 of them were reversed, also if you check this line


I highly doubt 17 seconds is enough to overheat the hash board, but ya, he should just check to make sure.

Post the complete kernel log using pastebin.com


It seems like your miner is overheating shortly after the mining process starts, which doesn't make sense unless the place is really super hot or the temp sensor is bad, but then all 3 hash boards are reporting the same issue which makes me doubt that it has anything to do with temps, post the complete kernel log first and then we can troubleshoot it one step at a time.

At this point I tend to believe this has to be a problem with the temp sensor on the hash board, however, given we had a similar issue with the 17 series miners whereby the temp sensor issues were 99% of the time caused by a single bad chip, this could also be the problem with the 19 series.

To be sure I would try a different firmware just to make sure the problem isn't software-related.

نعم في الواقع موقع البلد هوا المثير للشك, فمثلا في بلدي مع شبه انعدام تام لوسائل الدفع الالكترونية, شراء البتكوين عبر المنصات شبه مستحيل, وهوا حرز خاص بفئة قليلة من الناس الذين يمتلكون جنسيات اخرى ويعيشون في بلدان اخرى, الجزء الاخر يشتري من روسيا او الصين عبر حوالات مصرفية ضخمة لايمكن للشخص العادي الوصول لها, وهاؤولاء الاشخاص يقومو بالبيع للناس العادية بسعر اعلى بقليل من سعر السوق لذلك تقريبا جل المعاملات في بلدي تقع خارج المنصات فيما يخص التحويل من fiat الى كريبتو والعكس.

ولكن على حسب علمي بأن الوضع مختلف تماما في دبي, لذلك فالعملية هنا مثيرة للشك!

Zeusbtc have this file related to Antminer S9 maintenance > https://www.zeusbtc.com/manuals/repair-guide/Antminer-S9-hash-board-Repair-guide.pdf

I am not sure if it has anything about the control board but do check it out, in case it doesn't, try to contact Zeusbtc and ask for it, they are usually helpful.

يجب الحذر من النصب. اغلب من يطلب بيع او شراء بتكوين في ظل وجود كل هده المنصات هم نصابين.. انا لا انكر وجود عمليات شراء خارج المنصات ولا اتهجم على صاحب الموضوع ولكن فقط اضع بعض الحقائق امام الجميع.

This is not how the merit system works, i merit posts that contribute to a good discussion even if i disgree with them or dislike the person posting them, i would still merit your posts but you do not participate in the merit system so those sMerit points will be wasted.


But you do not have to be rude, wndsnb is stating the same points as you are without being mean or rude to anyone, why is it so difficult for you to be nice?

You run a mining pool and being rude in a mining community is not helping your business at all, which is why i do not think anyone will take your advice related to business seriously.

Also judging by your attitude and how you managed to send away your clients to other pools and ended up being one of the smallest pools in the world despite having started long before most large pools makes you seem like a person who is not capable of giving business advice.

You really need to fix that attitude and stop calling people who disgree with you "ignorant". There is never a good excuse to call people such words.

You can use pastebin.com to post the complete kernel log and then just paste the link here.

Generally these kind of issues are PSU related, make sure the AC voltage is 220v to 240v and the PSU has enough space for enough airflow. The kernel log should reveal more details.