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Total Portfolio development
Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.
Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
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My 2 cents about this situation is that this is the end of the Bitcoin adventure, and anyone who does not want to see this, has to check his head as soon as possible.
All this "cheap coins" idiotic texts are the source of the Bitcoin price falling down. As you might have been probably noticed, it gets tougher and tougher for the price to recover and raise again. This because, with every crash market loose it's confident more and more in Bitcoin as an investment possibility, and if that happens, it won't matter if you can buy Bitcoins with 300, 200, 100, or 1 USD... eventually it will become worthless. Totally worthless.
Today, all afternoon there was no wall on Bitstamp, yet the price didn't raised a bit. Now a wall appeared too, and definitely will push the price even more down. And before you start yelling "cheap coins", think about it: how many falls a market can survive? I think Bitcoin is really at the edge.
If you also start to think how many people would like to see Bitcoin's death, and how much financial power they have, make the math: Bitcoin is already history. I am sure, that with a few millions of dollars, it can be totally destroyed, price will be pushed so very down, that the entire Bitcoin - project will fall apart.
So enjoy your "cheap coins"... they will get as cheap as 0 soon, if the market doesn't starts to raise, and I mean REALLY REALLY RAISE. If the price will not show VERY VERY SOON a very drastic upward trend, I am sure that Bitcoin will not be able to survive many more crashes.
agree with you that the current sentiment is far too bullish for a material price rise. that said, I don't think we crash to 1 $. |
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Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.
Gotcha. Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000. How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers? Well, "the market's EV" is 400$. Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%. An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since the expected profit would be at least 12% per year. Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that. |
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Those few people who were confident enough to finally start buying above 400 and right away got dumped on straight in their face must be feeling so good! I bet they can't wait to buy again!
But hey fuck that! Cheeeeeaaaap coins!!!! Cheaaap coins! All these cheap coins! This is heaven!
it's a falling knife. can go way lower |
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TH1BTC is getting more an more interesting  what is actually TH1BTC? |
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Hello everyone,
I just wanted to let everyone know how excited I am about this partnership. This is going to be a means for the DIEM community to have a reap world lasting effect, through this dojo and their community. Not to mention the advertisement opportunity this is for The DIEM teams family of coins. With this being said I encourage everyone to donate to make this happen. I for one have been donating .111 worth of diem (46,098,642)to this foundation! I look forward to seeing this partnership happen and let DIEM prosper. There is a lot of competition in the altcoin world and to succeed with DIEM, the team must never rest to drive this to success.
S3052
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I love waking up to see that kind of buy volume  Yes, DIEM is basically the entire XMR market of Poloniex, just like it used to account for 90% of the volume when Polo had the LTC market. that's true, but DIEM needs follow through volume to avoid turning down again |
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yes, now it seems that there are just 239 XMR worth of DIEM left to break through 100 and higher. Lets see if there are more buyers.
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Not that I mind but aren't you effectively giving the top level of service from bullbearanalytics in here for free?
Yes, I am affiliated with http://bullbearanalytics.com/.
But http://bullbearanalytics.com/ offers more frequent and deeper forecasts, as well as specific trading ideas.
Further, I am posting this "live investing / trading" here for free on a temporary basis and we will see how it develops. |
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Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.
85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.
You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short. (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)
Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.
Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position
Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.
Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Annualized gains: 53.1% |
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Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.
85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.
You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short. (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)
Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.
Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position
Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.
Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind) |
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Nice order book development at Poloniex for DIEM/XMR.
If some buyers come in now, there is a chance for an upward breakout.
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I would consider this a fairly conservative defensive portfolio in anticipation of of a Financial Crash. The USD providing the bulk of the defensive position while the short (S&P 500) and Crypto-currencies XBT, XMR and DIEM providing the growth part to offset the 1-2% decline in the purchasing power of USD. There is one part that leaves me baffled. The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018. Given that this is over 85% of the portfolio what happens if this happens sooner? Presumably the XBT, XMR and DIEM will skyrocket to compensate for the loss in value of the USD. The short (S&P 500) position will become worthless or have negative values since it is in terms of USD. I know there are very few alternatives but, still it is very hard to have a 85% USD position if one believes the USD is in such deep trouble.
I foresee two strategies to manage a USD collapse (which I think won't happen before mid 2015), but even if here is what I'd do:
1) Move USD to CHF. CHF will most likely be the fiat currency to survive the longest. Since USD is liquid I can do this overnight.
2) Move part of it into phyisical gold stored as a safe location, e.g. via http://www.safewealthgroup.com/ (I have no affiliation with them, but think this is one of the few possibilities at hand) |
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Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.
85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.
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I'm calling it nowEverybody that has bought in at under $500 has been feasting on the bargain of the century. Check itThis chart is consistently reaching new highs. Transactions volume is going through the roof ALMOST DOUBLE IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS!. Gentlemen this is the moment of truth. Do you beleive in the fundamentals of Bitcoin? If you do then there has never been a better time to invest. I say that as somebody that was there in 2011 at the sub $10 prices before and after the Gox $30 bubble. The risk back then was astronomically greater than it is today. Back then there were a couple of hosting providers accepting BTC and that was it.. as recent as 2012 the best place to spend BTC was the Bitcoin Savings and Trust ponzi ffs... today bitcoin is giving birth to an entire industry and is being taken seriously by the world at large, including central banks, governments, regulating bodies. Countries like the UK don't want to miss the chance to become the next silicon valley... they want the innovation in their own country... expect to see fierce competition as each country tries to attract the Bitcoin businesses. People said 2013 would be the year of Bitcoin, then they said 2014... I truly believe that 2015 will be the year of Bitcoin and I fully recommend that you buy as much as you can at these low prices before you miss the boat. I agree that fundamentals are strong.
But the technicals are very bad and even if fundamentals remain strong, prices can go down a lot more |
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Update 4. Assets September 21, 2014.
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Main change over the past 24h was to cash in +9.6% profit of a leveraged bitcoin short position. Total portfolio up +0.8% since inception on September 14
- If someone would have invested 1,000 USD, this person would be up 8 USD.
- If someone would have invested 1,000,000 USD, this person would be up 8,000 USD.
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Good question
The asset allocation discussed here is meant to be for liquid assets in the general sense. I recentely ended all life insurances and got them liquidated to cash . I also sold all remaining stocks over the past weeks.
I keep a risk life insurance and the mandatory retirement plan from my work.
I don't have real estate as prices are in a bubble and I'd buy real estate in a couple of years if I really want to.
Also, real estate is different depending on your location .
Hence, this is why my example allocation is build on liquid assets and one that could work globally.
And I have nothing under the mattress. Cash is sitting in the (so far) safest banks.
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Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.
85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so? Cheers
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)You and me together. I've bought 4 btcs today as well (haven't done so for a couple of years tbh). I personally think that the bottom is reached ($370-380 range on Stamp). What do you think? |
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Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.
85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so? Cheers
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)You and me together. I've bought 4 btcs today as well (haven't done so for a couple of years tbh). I personally think that the bottom is reached ($370-380 range on Stamp). What do you think? |
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you forget that I distributed a lot of coins via donations along the way and bitcoinica hack
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