The bubble already burst. 19k down to under 7k.
Making money in mining has moved away from the home users. You wont make your money back fast enough unless you are running over 100 miners. The days of milking a single unit for silly profits is over. Its now a quantity over quality game.
That is price burst, not mining profitability and overcapacity. But I agree with u that the war and pain has begun and big farms with rental/staff cost will probably need economies of scale to possibly survive. I also agree with bloomberg that even big farms can go down since they do have rental and staff cost. I would say a home miner with 6 cents electricity still has it better than a big farm with 6 cents electricity as home miners have no rental/staff cost. Biggest problem - mining difficulty and overcapacity of asics:For example, if bitcoin spiked 50% to 12,000 USD now. Asic manufacturers such as bitmain will take in 3 months worth of orders. They will deliver these orders in the next 3 months. This is why mining profitability went from over 1000 USD a month for the S9 in Dec 2017 to about 200+ USD in January 2018. Bitcoin price dropped 50% from 20k in Dec to 10k in January but profitability dropped by 70+%. It gets worse as more asics are delivered in Feb and March. S9 were sold for 5000-7000 USD in December on Ebay but is worth under 1000 USD now. Timing of miner purchase:Even at 6 cents electricity, if bought an L3+ at 1500 USD in Dec 2017 to Feb 2018, it will take over 20 months to break even now. That means never. U can get an L3+ now for about 400+ USD now and it was 200+ USD (with coupons), in the past. If a more efficient machine comes out, it can unprofitable for L3+. There are big farms at the marketplace section wanting to sell a few thousand S9, at far higher prices than that for a new S9 now because they bought their stock at higher prices. Hence, time your purchases properly. ConclusionSo, be careful guys, even at cheap electricity, u CAN lose money. In my local area now, the highest cost home miners are selling GPU and asics en masse. There is alot of pain there. DO NOT spend money u cannot afford to lose. DONT take a loan to buy these things. The lower cost home miners and commercial miners are not doing so well either, but surviving. Some of these asics will never break even though. Do not depend on price spike upwards to mine more profitably because the moment it spikes up, millions of dollars of asics gets ordered and the first asic batch can be delivered in as fast as a week now. Another problem as bloomberg pointed out is that if it consolidates into a few big miners, the prospect of a 51% attack becomes bigger. If such occur, bitcoin may be worthless. However, this still seems like a far off possibility for now. |
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Wait, so I spend MORE money to buy BTC instead of using the miners I already have? Now if you said sell the miners and get into BTC, then you'd have something. Otherwise you're just chasing the cheese and never reaching it.
Yes, spend money to buy BTC and switch off unprofitable miners is always better.... Example: At the end of the month, u mine at a 50 dollar loss. U spent 1000 dollars on electricity. Hence, mining gives u 950 dollars of bitcoin only. U have lost 50 dollars. It is BETTER if u just switch off miners and buy 10000 dollars of bitcoin instead. U would then have 1000 dollars of bitcoin. Mining would have given u 950 dollars of bitcoin. Your miner has attained doorstop status. I have 2 of those too haha. Mine is D3.
Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove nested quotes. |
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I suggest dont go all in or too deep into mining guys. This bubble will burst and will end badly for some
I'm very interested to hear some elaboration on this "bubble" that you're speaking of. Can you clue me in to what kind of bubble of going to burst and what kind of effect you think it will have directly? I understand you think the bubble bursting would be negative, but I don't see a bubble and I'm unsure how exactly that negativity would manifest itself. Of course there's no reason to take out a second mortgage on the house, putting your family at risk and bet it all on a New batch of S9's. I think there is a reasonable buy-in for mining, but it becomes much more profitable with a single price-spike. Price volatility is the name of the game and we have a strong history of exploding past the expectations of every financial speculation. There are a lot of miners so the profit is scarce, but with the difficulty rising, new technology being introduced and the price dropping from the ATH there will be many that pull out of this market. That will make mining much more profitable for those that stick it out, and sticking it out will be very much worth it in the long-run. It always has been. Agreed. Watever u do, please use only money u can afford to lose. Mining profitability has already dropped alot. lol if u havent notice. Previous batches of miners bought at higher prices will never ROI. Price of bitcoin spike = difficulty spike up quickly. Why? Because u can get miners for cheap and delivered to your location in a week or two right now. It used to take 3 months. These miners can easily get cheaper because there are alot of asic production and not enough sales. Mining profitability, if spiked up due to price spike, will go down fast, due to fast mining difficulty increase. I dont wish to re-explain the concept. I foresaw this 3 months ago. See here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2781009.msg28443347#msg28443347 It is just supply and demand. Do note, profitability and miner prices were far higher back then. In December, an S9 miner cost like 5000-7000 USD on Ebay LOL Whatever u do, dont use money u cant afford to lose and of course, never sell your house for this lol |
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All about future value. Some people can afford to mine for losses, others can't.
That makes no sense.... For example, if u will mine and make 20 dollar loss in a month. U should just buy bitcoin. The end result is that u get 20 dollars more bitcoin for the same amount of money u would have paid for electricity. U dont have to buy hardware either. U will get $1000 of bitcoin from buying bitcoin, rather than get $980 bitcoin from mining, in this example.
Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove a nested quote. |
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/bitcoin-miners-facing-a-shakeout-as-profitability-becomes-harderLarge miners Bitmain, Bitfury are seen increasing dominance
Dorm-room miners are becoming a relic of the Bitcoin bubble
Even with the price back above $8,000, many of the so-called miners that perform the complex calculations to generate the digital currency are at risk of turning unprofitable. If prices drop below that threshold again for an extended period, there will likely be a swifter consolidation to industrial-scale mining. That could knock out the last guy-in-a-dorm-room operations and leave holders of the currency vulnerable to the dictates of the big miners.
“It’s totally different this year than last year,” Silicon Valley venture capitalist Bill Tai said in an interview. “The bitcoin mining industry was this mysterious dark cottage industry, and it’s about to grow up and about to have elements of institutional scalability at all levels."
Smaller miners will drop out, and only five to 10 of the largest will survive and be profitable, said Tai, who serves as chairman of Hut 8 Mining Corp., the capital financing arm in North America for Amsterdam-based Bitfury Group Ltd., one of the biggest makers of crypto-mining equipment. When the price of Bitcoin approached $19,000 last year, Bitfury had to turn some customers away as $1.9 billion of orders streamed in, he said. U can check out the rest of the article over at bloomberg. Looks like they finally picked it up. I suggest dont go all in or too deep into mining guys. This bubble will burst and will end badly for some.
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Can send D3 over for bitmain to host? lol |
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price increased  606 now Notice the L3++, this one may produce sligthly more or be more effective. It has the same specs though. I think the extra + refers to price haha |
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So wat are u guys mining. While the mining numbers look good. There is only bytecoin and digitalx? Bytecoin still releasing coins? Supply is nearly fully released?
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It is now up to pricing to make sense as
S9 prices:
1155 USD for 13TH
1288 USD for 14TH
Avalon 841 prices:
1625 USD for 13TH
Time to see T1 prices. Once the price war continues, it may go lower for all miners though. Avalon and S9 were priced higher before the war started.
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assuming scrptt hashrates stay constant thats six months roi not terrible
Which would be an insane assumption, Scypt hashrates haven't been even CLOSE to flat for a very long time now. They haven't been as bad as that big jump in December 2017, but the average this year has been about 2% per difficulty period. With cheaper miners I would think it goes higher or at least, it would go higher than if the miners were expensive. The other bigger risk is that this is on 28nm. If a 16nm appears, it might be 3 times better, as how s9 is 3 times better than s7 Innos A4+ is 15-20% more efficient but is on 14nm node. So, if bitmain comes up with a 14nm l3 in future, it will be alot better i think. I really hope one does not appear soon though as it would be bad for L3+ owners.... but a 14nm L3 would possibly have no possible competitor that comes close to matching it. Just my 2 cents I'm beginning to think 80/20 that the Bitmain 1.5gh unit @ 1,300 watts exists. Thus the 'fire sale' of old stuff with/coupons...and likely they will 'announce' sales to us at the end of Summer with the result of (likely these overpriced units) will hit us folk say around October 2018... *THE KICKER IS* Bitmain will have these puppies in hand and likely run them full out (only game in town) from say May 1st to 0ct 1st being "mainly' the sole source of say LTC difficulty rise of *guess* about 20-30% (worse case)...again I'm just guessing and IMHO. But, even Bitmain, with these units, is going to have to see a pretty good increase in the price of scrypt-pow coins for this to have any 'validity' or they will simply be as *skunked* as us 'regular folk', by the first of the year, IMHO. The difficulty increase waits for NOBODY...small/medium/or large without the price of coin being a factor. ONLY good thing is IF you are a 'hobby miner" and can afford to 'eat' your electric say out of your JOB income...I'd do that on the bet of the LTC halving in April 2018 for LTC. It is something to do, keep your eye on, and a 'modest' bet in my view...as to us larger miners...with data halls, etc...it may just be elec to LTC to USD and mostly back to Elec oranges to oranges ..if the price goes sideways and difficulty surpasses price. I could eat a couple L3+'s in the basement and eat electric price on the April 2019 halving of LTC ...as my 'angle' on hobby miners...AS to such a bet for data hall mining or the 22 Bitmain units I have (even if month to month rent) ....well.... Such a bet would not be easy ..if above 'ugly scenarios' came into play and 'thwarted and struck me down' the other say 18 Bitmain Units .NOT in my basement..in my new found 'hobby' mode...at that point in time..I suppose I could make a 'wall of shame' out of .18 miners would make a 'formidable fort' to playin....but not a lot of wiggle room with data hall electric and fees...compared to a hobby miner betting some elecric and HODL mode for next years April 2018 LTC halving...(Bit mining is great, but when the beast is pretty and big...but you got to feed the beast or it feeds on you!) whatever, bets are made...time to ride the tiger There is no L4+ . Lets close our eyes and not believe it exist  I actually believe bitmain somewhat cares some about how it is for miners because they do give coupons rather than just cheapen miners and because of the A3. However, they will put competition against competitors as a far bigger priority..... Even if there is an L4+, there is no major reason to release it now with this abysmal profitability. There might be an L4+ if a competitor releases a litecoin miner that is alot more efficient and at good prices or a miner that is as efficient as L3+ but around the same price. There is a better Litecoin asic but it isnt priced well enough to really compete. There are rumours that the new S9 will be using a 12nm process and I suspect this is due to the new avalon and dragonmint competing with the S9. There is no such competition for L3+ yet, so, perhaps no new L4+ yes . These cheap miners are somewhat tempting but the increase in difficulty could also mean they become toasters. Thats the problem. In a way, it isnt an expensive bet since the miners are cheap. It is somewhat a fair bet but from what I see this year, there are just too many asic manufacturers and price isnt booming like last year. Bitcoin and alts cannot boom 8-10x yearly to support mining profitability. It is not possible. The best miner these days would be something like the A3. It showed 20k per month profit before it was released. U get a delivery of one unit and quickly u ROI in a month....safe. I didnt get an A3 but I hope to get the next A3 haha. Timing and price is most important these days. |
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Not worth it these days. There are too many asic miners available for sale. ROI is too risky as new stronger machines keep appearing.
In short, btc price boomed 8-10x last year. That allowed a good amount of asics to be sold.
Bitcoin isnt booming in price this year and it cannot boom 8-10x yearly.
So, there will be excess unsold asics. Such as the case now as u can see. This push profitability down to low levels and there is a higher risk of not being able to break even.
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Hopefully, it moons on hitbtc
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What price and shipping speed, with the new firmware, do you expect this to be even with competitors? Not that you would get such...just what would be 'comfortable' now?
(assuming, they don't lower their prices yet again, which they seem to do weekly!)
They will probably lower price for it to make sense. Problem is once they lower, competitor will probably do so. And looking at the price of an L3+ now, I think there can be alot of fight here. U may wanna not go all in at once and instead, time your purchases in batches to get a good average buying price. Just my 2 cents. |
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assuming scrptt hashrates stay constant thats six months roi not terrible
Which would be an insane assumption, Scypt hashrates haven't been even CLOSE to flat for a very long time now. They haven't been as bad as that big jump in December 2017, but the average this year has been about 2% per difficulty period. With cheaper miners I would think it goes higher or at least, it would go higher than if the miners were expensive. The other bigger risk is that this is on 28nm. If a 16nm appears, it might be 3 times better, as how s9 is 3 times better than s7 Innos A4+ is 15-20% more efficient but is on 14nm node. So, if bitmain comes up with a 14nm l3 in future, it will be alot better i think. I really hope one does not appear soon though as it would be bad for L3+ owners.... but a 14nm L3 would possibly have no possible competitor that comes close to matching it. Just my 2 cents |
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Bitmain Pushes Ethereum ASIC Release to July, Citing Disappointing Performance
Bitmain's new ASIC for Ethereum will only be released after July due to some initial problems with the chip's performance that the company hopes to address before shipping it to customers.
Industry sources also note that the chip is being manufactured using the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s 28-nanometer architecture.
This may explain why the Antminer E3 barely has a higher mining efficiency than a Radeon Rx 480 graphics card rig. To help clarify what we mean, the Antminer E3 is advertised at 180 megahashes per second with an 800-watt nominal power consumption. In contrast, a rig with six Radeon Rx 480 cards will produce 150 megahashes per second with a 900-watt nominal power consumption, and it’s hardly the most efficient GPU out there.
Hmmmm and people were saying that they were mining with these for awhile? |
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doing the low power setting
gets 13.8th to 14.1 th at 1326 watts
[...]
Seems it is on spec after all. Maybe can test the 15-16th range too. Nice vid and i guess u are not the neat type lol.
Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from philipma1957. |
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Halong Mining and Innosilicon partnership is admitted in this email message sent to Innosilicon customers. Dear Customer,
Have a great day.
We will launching A8+ miner soon, do you have any interest? Our A8 was bought by our customers in China and it is sold out in one day yesterday.
We are lauching new machines for new coins,of course,we are selling our LTC miners A4+/A6 and Dash miner A5/A5+ and we are partner of Halong and we also selling dragonmint miners.
Miner Model A8+
POW Algorithm CryptoNight
Coin XMC、ETN、KRB、DCY etc.
Hashrate 240kh/s
Power consumption 480w
Power Efficiency 2J/kh
Weight 7.3kg
Dimensions 35*25*16CM
If you have any interest, we could communicate more.
Best wishes to you.
Best regards
Jessica Zhang Oh, so it is a 'partnership'. That is why the specs for halong X2 and A8+ are almost exactly the same. It is just on slightly different frequency. So, it is not just similar-looking control boards and all halong algos dont compete with inno algos. And they have the same flat non-interlocking aluminum casing right? Inno A8 240kh 480w Dragon X2 248kh 490w I got a feeling we wont find out who halong CEO is because inno is halong haha. That would also explain why there is no CEO for halong. Just my 2 cents speculation |
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Does anyone notice that
Inno A8
240kh
480w
Dragon X2
248kh
490w
This 2 has almost same specs, pretry much same efficiency. It is just on slightly different frequency. Their casings are be the same style on the sides without interlocking, I believe.
To add, dragons control board is almost exact same as innos as others have pointed out.
Hmmm adds to the theory that dragon ia innosilicon doesnt it??
Bitmains does 220kh for 500w and pinidea does 27ks for 350w....different.
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Bitcoin lives again but this bounce is not as strong as previous ones so far.
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