Hmmm price isnt good now but this is considered ok since it has been a bear market recently. I hope devs manage to get it on top exchanges. If devs do well, we may even see it claimable on gemini and coinbase one day.

No dude, if they could do that, the delivery dates will be 3 months ahead still because they would have secured orders for all their production batches for 3 months. They havent been able to sell. That is why delivery is in 1-2 weeks now instead of 3 months. Are u selling alot of antminers now or something? I am surprised there is a need to argue over something so obvious.

Back then, ROI showed 3-4 months and people kept buying. Now it is like 15 months.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

I believe we are already there actually. Thats why these machines arent selling and u can buy them at huge discounts in marketplace. There are even people selling big mines with 5000 antminers in them.

Currently at 10 cents power = 145 USD per month profit
S9 with PSU = 2000 X 1.1 (VAT) + 80 shipping = 2280
2280/ 145 = 15.7 months

This is about 471 days which means ROI is a possibly never. This is already with a generous assumption of only 10% VAT, no setup cost, no staff or cooling costs. The machine only has 6 months warranty and may not last 400 over days and new machines may possibly appear to push difficulty even higher. This is why there are alot of antminers being sold in secondary marketplaces now. Well, to each his own and I guess.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from philipma1957.)

That cant be right. 62 DB is still pretty noisy but I believe your DB meter isnt properly calibrated. Do note that when u put machines together, the noise amplifies itself to become louder.

Dude, this is the definition of overcapacity "the situation in which an industry or factory cannot sell as much as its plant is designed to produce.

They have not been able to sell what they can produce. That is why delivery-date/lead-time which was 3 months ahead is now 2 weeks. This is the same for any other industry. If they could sell as fast as they could produce, the lead time would be maintained at 3 months now.

So, when they changed to BCH only payment, it took longer to sell for abit due to currency issues. That has nothing to do with demand/supply. Not everyone had access to an exchange like poloniex that had BCH back then and exchanges take many days to verify. So, customers take time to sign up and verify at exchanges before being able to get BCH. Coinbase didnt have BCH yet back then. Shortly after those issues, the website was using BCH only payment and miner stocks were once again out of stock quickly and with 2-3 months delivery lead time. Now, it is just overcapacity unfortunately.

Looking at the rate of difficulty increase, any rise in BTC price can easily be accompanied by a quick and sharp rise in difficulty because new units can be plugged in, in just 2 weeks. It used to have a 2 month lag time, so, that gives older miners some time to mine at that lower difficulty and sell at good btc price but that wont be the case from now onwards.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from QuintLeo.)

Yep, D3 is hopeless now.  X3 is in a way fair since it is a bet that monero fails to fork. I am not taking that bet but it seems others are willing.

Dude, u can have your view and I can have mine. And there are others who share my view. Juz look at the marketplace and perhaps do some basic maths om holding bitcoin against mining bitcoin in the last 1 year. My last job was working in a trading house. I was there for a few years. Part if our team's job was to identify overcapacity/undersupplied markets and poasibly speculate on it.

I dunno where u live but my country has freedom of speech. U are quite insane to think anyone who hold opposite views cannot be heard.
Newsflash, there are also alot of people who are negative on mining, not just me. Go check the marketplace section on good deals on miners and go read about what happened to antminer D3 miners. They lost tons of money. The S9 will be like the D3 id an S11 comes out now, among other things.

Feel free to put me on ignore if u are one of those people who need to only hear the good stuff and u cant handle both sides of the coin. I am a miner myself. I was bullish and I bought miners. Thus, it is no fun for me when things turn bad. But facts r facts even if it sucks for me too.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from Shazam!!!.)

Wat is the point of everyone feeling pain when u could have a case of unsatisfied customer service but alot of profits?
Overcapacity leads to wastage. All we will have is alot more money wasted on designing new asics, alot more power wasted by more asics, lesser profits for everyone and environment becoming dirtier (due to power generation by coals). It doesnt serve decentralization either because bitmain sells to everyone anyways.

I get the idea people dont like bitmain customer service but boohoo, competitors of bitmain are worse at it and in general, thats how customer service is in alot of chinese companies...

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

That is why I say competition is stupid. There are only so many coins being released every 10 mins. More asic manufacturers means more competition and that means higher difficulty and less profits for miners and far biggest risks. See wat happen with X11, dash miners by bitmain, innosilicon and pinidea? They 3 of them flooded the market and, miners lose. The antminer S9 ruled btc algo for a long time and early users of it make money. Miners make more money when bitmain has a monopoly over the coin. The worst risk is when a new miner from an asic manufacturer makes other miner obsolete.

I dont agree with the rest of the things u say though.

Agreed. I doubt innosilicon would considering what i have read about them in the dash thread. I wish bitmain would stop selling D3s though, sigh.

Dude, it used to be that it takes 3 months to receive an antminer S9. They have not been able to sell for the last 2 months, that is why u can now order and received them in 2 weeks. It is very much in stock. Out of stock means u cannot even place an order. In the past, any new batch of S9s get announced on twitter and are sold out in 10 mins.
They are also selling the V9 which are new S7s, for cheap. Apparently some ppl can make some profit with them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3077083.0   -Take a look. Even big mining farms with 5000 antminers S9s in canada which has cheap electricity are trying to cash out out.

U can find users selling used miners as low as 0.06 btc and some selling new S9s at 1000 USD at marketplace https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=75.0  ...among other things.

If btc suddenly rise to 20k right now, the bitcoin holders make 150% profit. Bitcoin difficulty will rise very quickly since new miners can be bought and be received in 2 weeks now. Even if u mine to hold, one 14TH S9 mines only 0.0305 btc right now per month. And it gets lower as difficulty rises.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

Depends on which point taken really.
Jan 2016 = 0.15T difficulty
March 2017 = 3.2T Difficulty

3.2 / 0.15 = 21.3 times difficulty increase

Jan 2016 price = 1000 USD
March 2017 now price = 7700 USD

7700 /1000= 7.7 times price increase.


Thus, From Jan 2016 to March 2017 , difficulty has increased 21 times but price only 7.7 times.
-------------------------------------
Following your calculation:

(new btc price) 7700/1050 =  7.33 to 1


if you look at diff  for march 17 2017  475,705,205,061
if you look at diff for march 5 2018     3,290,605,988,754

so 3,290,605,988,754/475,705,205,061= 6.92 to 1

Well, it is still marginally better.


Anyways, right now, no doubt, difficulty is rising alot more than price and there are alot of asics that can be sold by asic manufacturers to easily push it higher. Stronger asics may appear also. I hope it doesnt.

Just my 2cents.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from philipma1957.)

This sets a SCARIER precedence assuming monero succeeds btw.

In future, will coin devs fork the moment a new asic appears??

Holy crap dash price 370 usd. Bitmain, pls stop selling D3 at least.

Problem is there are too many asic manufacturers. No winner here as asic manufacturers earn less and miners will not earn much either. That is the problem with excess capacity.
After all, there are only so many coins to be earned. This is an arms race.

There clearly is overcapacity. That is why these miners are not selling. Breakeven used to be less than half the time dude and profitability was far higher. U now have to mine above the warranty period to break even. I have a friend mining in china and there are other cost such as building, maintenance, staff and reliability of electricity. It isnt just low electricity. It is also harder for them to find low electricity rates these days.

Dude, bitcoin difficulty has increased alot more than bitcoin price and there are tons of unsold asics unlike the past where it is out of stock. U can now get miners in 2 weeks and not 3 months....wat u mean by they cant get enough capacity? If people wanted more capacity, they can easily buy and push the delivery date 1-2 months out. That happened in the past, not now.

If u are referring to gpu, yes, there is a shortage but not asics. Holding bitcoin makes a lot more than buying.

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from QuintLeo.)

ETN has announced a fork? Do u have the source of this news?

Well, bitmain has flooded sha256 miners everywhere. Bitmain doesnt buy it clearly. They probably have an idea of how much dragon has spent and they are making it difficult for dragon to make that money back. Now, litecoin mining is more profitable than bitcoin mining. If u see the V9 thread, everyone is saying the V9 is new, not old products. It is possible that they created the cheaper V9 just to flood the market. This is speculation.
I mean u dont see a cheaper litecoin miner being released but u do see a cheaper sha256 V9 miner. (No one would want this to occur)

I hope dragon is smart and be more like baikal in future, that is, to focus on algos that does not compete with bitmain. It is better this way as dragon will be able to sell more miners and at the same time, the buyers do not get the same algo flooded by bitmain, a win-win situation. Although yes, apparently baikal released a monero miner and bitmain had that too... coincidentally. Bitmain probably had it for awhile, but just unreleased back then. It happens. It also makes u wonder if there is an S11 unreleased somewhere. And really no offense buddy but u are a new account and all your posts are in the halong thread. It doesnt make sense to mention the 30 million cost is incurred by others when it is your own product and it is mentioned to convince buyers that alot has been done to make the product. The previous and next sentences also mention the company and its efforts only. Also, that unicornflex fellow who claims 50-100 million sales is a new account with 1 post. I dont believe anyone will put big orders for an untested product and I am unsure how such info was discovered. I believe that is just marketing talk. Anyways, bitmain wants to compete and they compete fiercely. Hopefully, this goes well for all. Well, at least the dragon decred miner doesnt clash with another product.
Look at the current baikal-n. It clashed with bitmain and they released X3 which is better and the new x-3 batch is far cheaper than baikal-n. Unfortunately, monero will hard fork, so, it probably wont matter lol

---

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to trim the quote from Dr.Mann.)

I am confused. U have tested it. It has shipped? 15th march wqs first batch right

I dont understand because ROI for S9 is worse now than last year.
Oh, u are being sarcastic?