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2861  Economy / Economics / Re: Musk is doing the right thing. on: August 15, 2018, 10:32:28 AM
Update: this news story has taken an unexpected turn.

Quote
Elon Musk’s mystery Tesla buyout funder is Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund is the mystery funder that has offered to finance a deal to take Tesla private, Elon Musk wrote in a Monday morning blog post. The post lays to rest a mystery that has bedeviled Wall Street and the news media since Musk tweeted last Tuesday that he had "funding secured" for a buyout.

"Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private," Musk wrote in his Monday post. "They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil."

In late July, the Saudis purchased almost five percent of Tesla's stock (acquiring more than five percent would have triggered public disclosure requirements). They then met with Musk on July 31 and reiterated their interest in funding a buyout.
"I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed," Musk said. He then met with Tesla's board and told them he was interested in taking Tesla private.

The next step, Musk said, was to approach Tesla's largest shareholders to see if they would be interested in continuing to hold shares in the new, private incarnation of Tesla. But he thought that all shareholders deserved to know about the proposal at the same time—hence his Tuesday tweet announcing his plan to go private.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/08/elon-musk-considering-using-saudi-oil-money-to-buy-out-tesla/

The high number of articles and stories in the news attacking Tesla and Elon Musk of late are strange. Its almost as if there is a FUD agenda against Elon Musk. He's receiving the same treatment bitcoin received when the only thing published in the mainstream media were stories about crypto currencies being a "safe haven" for money launderers, criminals and terrorists. And a unbelievably large amount of content claiming bitcoin was a bubble that was destined to pop.

Tesla's stock is a high stakes FUD game where some investors have literally bet billions of dollars the price of tesla stock would diminish.

In the past it has been revealed some of tesla's biggest haters are people who own large stakes in oil. This trend could carry over to crypto where many of its biggest haters appear to be oil investors who are upset that bitcoin mining gives a lot of business to competing energy sources like hydroelectric energy.
2862  Economy / Economics / Man generates his own electricity, still pays electricity taxes on: August 15, 2018, 10:18:34 AM
This is a news story about a man who installed 35 solar panels on his home.

http://www.anonews.co/man-still-has-to-pay-tax-for-energy-he-generates-himself/

This man pays electricity taxes on every watt of energy his house consumes, even though he is self sufficient & produces more energy than he consumes from the power grid.

Should he pay taxes for a service rendered by the state which he does not utilize?

Crypto taxes are a hot topic in this section. This news story could in the future apply to crypto mining. Imagine if someone bought enough solar panels to power their bitcoin mining operation. And the state charged them for every kilowatt hour of energy their bitcoin miners consume, even though their operation is fully powered independently outside of state generated or regulated electrical grids.

This news story reminds me of this case where uganda tried to tax its citizens for using social media websites like twitter and facebook:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4614685.0

What are peoples thoughts on this?
2863  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans own less stuff because of the Internet. Is that a worry? on: August 15, 2018, 10:11:29 AM
I completely agree. I completely overlooked the fact that if people are that concerned, they could always just buy paper books again. Haha.

That reminds me of recent pushes to create a "cashless society" where paper money is banned or illegalized. I can already imagine an argument for this developing.

"Paper books come from chopped down trees. This is bad for the environment and so paper books must be illegalized like plastic bags and straws to combat climate change, drought and global warming."

If paper books were banned, amazon would receive an even larger profit boost from its kindle store. Jeff Bezos would be proud. It would be bad for consumers but I don't think there are many who care about consumer rights/freedom these days.
2864  Economy / Economics / Re: what your opinion about this? on: August 14, 2018, 09:30:06 AM
As far as I can detemine, the latest crypto decline is linked to turkey's economic toxicity affecting its neighbors. Its similar to the 2008 economic crisis where the united states economic decline negatively affected economies of the entire world. Except its on a smaller and more isolated regional scale surrounding turkey. It has the potential to branch out and affect global markets although whether or not the damage will be contained remains to be seen. Concerns revolving around potential negative implications of greater economic slowdown or recession in the world are magnified by these events, driving markets down.

Not only crypto is declining. The DOW Jones average for US stocks is also dropping. Similar events are occurring all around the world.
2865  Economy / Economics / Re: bitcoin is regaining dominance. Turkey citizens buying btc. on: August 14, 2018, 08:51:14 AM
Yes. The correlation between overprinting of fiat currency induced inflation and high crypto ownership is an interesting one. Venezuela and turkey could both be prime examples of this in practice. I'm not proud of crypto benefiting from negatives faced by nations for adopting negative economic policies. But the long term trend does appear to benefit bitcoin and crypto, some of which were designed to stave off negative circumstances such as overprinting and hyperinflation.

It is also interesting to note that inflation in the USA, EU and around the world could be underrated similar to how economic definitions relating to unemployment have been changed over time to make metrics appear more optimistic or positive. In an effort to avoid having the public lose confidence in state officials and governments.
2866  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans own less stuff because of the Internet. Is that a worry? on: August 14, 2018, 07:49:54 AM
Some social problems are blatantly obvious in daily life, while others are longer-term, more corrosive and perhaps mostly invisible. Lately I've been worrying about a problem of the latter kind: the erosion of personal ownership and what that will mean for our loyalties to traditional American concepts of capitalism and private property.

The main culprits for the change are software and the internet. For instance, Amazon's Kindle and other methods of online reading have revolutionised how Americans consume text. Fifteen years ago, people typically owned the books and magazines they were reading. Much less so now. If you look at the fine print, it turns out that you do not own the books on your Kindle. Amazon.com does.

https://www.afr.com/opinion/americans-own-less-stuff-because-of-the-internet-and-thats-a-worry-20180812-h13vkd

Interesting perspective.

There are many similar trends. Consumers used to be able to repair their own cars. Today its more difficult with automakers making an effort to lock consumers out of their own vehicles. Specialized computer hardware is often necessary to diagnose issues much less fix them. While tesla and Elon Musk have achieved some good in terms of shifting power consumption from internal combustion engines in vehicles to more efficient powerplants with less of a carbon footprint, tesla is also known for having very stringent terms of purchase. In some ways tesla owners are locked out of their own vehicles by software and EULA.

There are producers of goods who want to completely shut down 2nd hand markets where products are sold in flea markets or yard sales.

There are other examples of consumers perhaps losing rights and freedom. While large corporations, banks and governments perhaps are gaining more power.

Is it a trend people should worry about? That's up for debate. I think its something not many are conscious or aware of.
2867  Economy / Economics / Re: Housing market has hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says on: August 13, 2018, 11:17:24 AM
That is what I am trying to point out, because your earlier post :
For those thinking of buying real estate, it could be worth waiting awhile if a negative market correction occurs.
Says otherwise of what you are trying to say now. Even if the buyers will wait and hold their money for awhile I don't think they will have a better deal if they do so as Real Estate properties are still increasing in terms of value.

The reason buyers are likely to enjoy lower prices in a declining real estate market involves upkeep, cleaning, maintenance, home owners association fees, property taxes and associated costs which sellers incur via owning and holding homes. Imagine that you own a house or land. In most cases, sellers wish to sell their holdings as quickly as possible to avoid upkeep costs which can accumulate over the long term.

Imagine you own real estate that you have tried to sell over the past 12 months. Let's say it costs $500 a month to upkeep your property. To have it cleaned, pay taxes, pay home owners association fees, pay for someone to cut the grass in the yard & similar liabilities. Those long term costs cut into your sales profit. If the price of real estate began to decline, you might feel pressured to sell at a lower price than you wanted to avoid having those upkeep and maintenance costs pile up. Especially if the price of homes is declining and you fear that you might never sell your real estate at a profit if you wait too long.

Many owners of real estate have a timetable or a certain price they need to sell at in order to produce a profit. If the value of homes in the area drops below that price, or if upkeep costs rise too high, it could mean that they wouldn't make a profit selling and could take a loss instead having sold the real estate for less than they paid for it.

Real estate isn't like crypto which can be held without piling up fees and additional costs. That can make it a buyers market at times, especially if prices are on the decline and demand is decreasing.

Let say that you get the whole 200,000$ in the value of cryptocurrencies, why would the buyer still go in that option? What will be the advantage for this people opting to choose cryptocurrency based financing over the traditional banking based financing? I don't think it would be more affordable to the person buying as they still need to be financially capable of paying back those loans, or else they can be screwed over by choosing the more affordable option.

Do you know how people avoid exchanges or crypto services which charge higher fees? That's one advantage which could make crypto financing more appealing. It would be much more appealing to buy real estate with crypto and avoid fees involved in converting crypto to fiat.

There are many newly made millionaires and billionaires in crypto who could afford to buy real estate outright. That is a logical market to tap.

Also there are many HODL'ers holding bitcoin and other crypto. They might be tempted to buy real estate if prices were lower and terms were better.
2868  Economy / Economics / Re: The new world currency in 2018? on: August 13, 2018, 10:31:55 AM
If their proposed one world currency is named "phoenix" after a mythical bird which rises from the ashes of destruction and chaos. It would be a very amazing coincidence if there is a major push for adoption of this "phoenix" currency, if it occurred after major economic crashes on a global scale.

It could resemble a scenario where someone might wonder if events had specifically been planned and engineered to occur that way. Maybe the world's pension plans had specifically been designed to fail while fiat was deliberately overprinted worldwide to foment devaluation and economic carnage.

Of course, they had to ban Alex Jones as he was the only one crazy enough to challenge this and perhaps if he was lucky: expose it. What a crazy world we live in, even if very little if any of this turns out to be true.
2869  Economy / Economics / Re: ‘Big Four’ South Korean Bank Enters Blockchain Pact with Telecom Giant KT on: August 13, 2018, 10:14:51 AM
This is interesting from the perspective of anti-trust laws.

Imagine if google, apple, goldman sachs and lockheed martin joined forces to create and manufacture a product or buyout a market. With their collective wealth, expertise and influence they might easily dominate and gain a strong monopoly over emerging markets or technology.

In the united states and europe there are anti trust laws which are supposed to serve as anti monpoly regulation.

However these laws are non-existent in asia and other parts of the world who are typically obsessed with building the largest and most powerful super corporations which are humanly possible.

If google tried to do what this south korean bank and telecom giants are doing, they might be sued by the EU for $5 billion dollars. However asian nations can typically get away with that type of large scale collaboration as anti trust laws do not apply to them. This creates an interesting dilemma for the future of anti trust laws, and the current state of affairs where google and microsoft are commonly targeted by anti trust while corporations in other countries are perhaps not held to the same standard.
2870  Economy / Economics / Re: Housing market has hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says on: August 13, 2018, 09:56:48 AM
If you are looking for a decline in real estate value, I don't think it will happen soon as the article itself stated that the sold houses/property are still gaining value which means real estate properties are still a positive asset to own. The real estate market having a decline in sales means that they have exhausted most of the people who are wanting to have their own real estate property, we cannot assume that all people living in the US right now want to have their own house as they might be satisfied renting out an apartment or a condo unit to save as much income as they can.

Bolded: unlike crypto markets, the price of real estate isn't determined by the price people are willing to pay for it. The price of real estate can increase while sales diminish.

Also I don't think cryptocurrency based financing could be a solution for their problem, because most of the debtors who are availing that kind of loans are also liquidating it back to Fiat. Maybe some of their sold properties might be already bought in this kind of financing and they just don't know about it yet. Also to top it off they must be qualified or in other words financially capable of paying back that loans first before availing that kind of financing solution.

Au contraire. I believe there could be a market for crypto based financing. The rationale for it revolves around efficiency. It could cost upwards of 3% to 5% or higher to convert a crypto currency like bitcoin to fiat. Think of the price of a house which can easily reach $200,000. Converting crypto to $200,000 in fiat could cost more than $10,000 in conversion fees, without counting taxes and other costs.

There are consumers who could look at those prohibitive costs and simply refuse to pay them.

However if real estate were denominated explicitly in crypto and consumers could purchase real estate without paying 3% to 5% or higher in currency conversion, they might be willing to buy.

Crypto based financing would be more affordable and more appealing and it would be more likely to boost sales in real estate markets in comparison to current alternatives.
2871  Economy / Economics / Housing market has hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says on: August 13, 2018, 08:39:06 AM
Quote
Redfin stock dives after top exec says sudden downfall is expected to continue in August and September

The housing market hit a sudden and “significant” slowdown in the past few weeks that could continue in coming months, Redfin Corp.’s chief executive said Thursday afternoon.

The real-estate brokerage and website company announced second-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon that beat expectations, but the company’s third-quarter forecast came in short of what Wall Street was projecting. On a conference call to discuss the results, Chief Executive Glenn Kelman reported that Redfin had pulled down its forecast after “an unexpected drop in Redfin’s bookings growth in the past three weeks, slowing traffic growth in a weakening real-estate market.”

Redfin RDFN, -22.39%  stock, which fell in extended trading after the forecast was made public, saw that decline accelerate to a loss of almost 10% after Kelman spoke Thursday afternoon, but he did not hold back. He said a decline in U.S. home sales in June was expected to reappear in August and September after a slight relief in July, specifically calling out difficulties in markets on the West Coast that have driven home sales higher in the past few years.



For the first time in years, we are getting reports from managers of some markets that home buyer demand is waning, especially in some of Redfin’s largest markets,” Kelman said, specifically calling out Seattle, Portland and San Jose as areas where inventory was still tight but did not seem to be pushing prices higher still.

“June sales were down in these markets by double-digits and inventory was up also by double-digits,” he said of the West Coast cities. “The trend is continuing in July and reports are now coming in from Washington, D.C.; Boston; Virginia and parts of Chicago as well that homes there are getting harder to sell.”

Both existing-home sales and new-home sales declined in June, but price gains on the homes that did sell actually accelerated, according to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index for June, which was released earlier this week. Other trackers like the S&P/Case-Shiller national index show decelerating price increases, but were still reflecting double-digit price increases in the San Francisco and Seattle areas. Pending-home sales were also lower than the previous year in June, according to the National Association of Realtors, the sixth consecutive month that metric trailed the previous year.

Redfin’s position as a website used by those who may not be actively looking to buy a home, and a brokerage that actually works with those who are buying and selling, gives it a unique perspective on the housing market. Kelman was clear that he was basing his fears on elements from both, as slowing traffic growth and worrisome rates of closing sales in three of the past four weeks caused the cautious guidance and warning.

“We aren’t entirely sure how much of it is the market and how much of it is us because our guidance is based on a slowdown that only occurred in the last few weeks. It was a significant slowdown,” Kelman said. “It may be that we have a good week this week and a good week next week and we can outperform it. But we are seeing a significant change.

“My guess is that only some of it is driven by the environment. It is definitely changing.”

Despite the concerns, Redfin announced that it is expanding its Redfin Now service that buys and sells houses, which Goldman Sachs analysts have called a “necessary” step for the company as startups using the so-called iBuyer approach proliferate. Goldman downgraded Redfin and rival Zillow Group Inc. ZG, -3.89%  in June.

Zillow also had issues after its earnings report earlier this week, falling 16.3% Tuesday after also announcing a forecast that was weaker than expected. Zillow also has an “iBuyer” program called Instant Offers, and one analyst asked Kelman about what effects greater competition in buying and selling homes between the two online real-estate titans could have.

“Well, first of all we haven’t competed directly with Zillow and its Instant Offers program in any market, we just don’t have overlapping markets. My expectation is that, it will be a price war,” he said. “We’ll probably put more pressure on sales volume than gross margin because rather than take more risk on a property and offer a price that we’re not sure we can beat when we flip the home, we would just have to step back and let someone else have that sale and take that risk.”

Redfin, which went public just more than a year ago, has seen shares decline 26.1% this year, as the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.71%   has gained 6.9%. After its big fall earlier this week, Zillow has still gained 25.1% on the year, and has a market capitalization of $10.3 billion, about five times more than Redfin.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-has-hit-a-significant-slowdown-in-recent-weeks-redfin-ceo-says-2018-08-09

....

This could signal a long term decline for sales in real estate markets.

For those thinking of buying real estate, it could be worth waiting awhile if a negative market correction occurs.

Real estate sellers could adopt crypto currency based financing sooner than expected if they become desperate for sales.

Its long been known that fewer consumers are able to afford real estate as wage growth fails to match inflation. This was offset to a degree by real estate development and new home construction failing to keep up with population growth, which in turn made living space a scarce commodity. Foreign investment also provided a boost to real estate sales with many foreign nationals desiring legal immigration into the USA.

Is this a significant slowdown which will have long term negative impacts on the value of real estate in the USA?

Or is it merely a cyclical phase which will be replaced by price growth at a later date?

What do people think about this?
2872  Economy / Economics / Re: AT&T Cleared to Buy Time Warner on: August 12, 2018, 08:25:05 AM
If AT&T buys Time Warner and eventually centralizes telecom markets, it wouldn't be the first time the telecom industry was monpolized under something resembling a state sanctioned monopoly.

Up until the 1980s, american consumers were not able to legally own telephones. They had to rent phones from the bell monopoly system. Long distance prices were very high. There was no industry innovation or advancement. After the bell monopoly was broken up under anti trust laws under (I think) Reagan's administration, that was when the telecom industry began to see rapid advancement. Cheaper long distance calls, cell phones, a transition from rotary style phones to digital phones and later mobile phones. That came about from greater market competition created by breaking up the bell monopoly.

Some of this is recorded, here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_the_Bell_System

The rest can probably be found via search engine.

For a judge to say there's no precedent for AT&T buying Time Warner having negative effects. There could be a substantial amount of american history which contradicts that.
2873  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [UFC] The wait is over. Khabib vs Conor on: August 12, 2018, 01:15:19 AM
I doubt that drugs has something to do with McGregor not having a good stamina. There are fighters who are really explosive in the first 2-3 rounds, but eventually gets tired after that. Just probably lack of cardio trading as Zabahi mentioned that it can be corrected and there are certain exercise that can greatly improved someone's stamina.

If you know who Melvin Guillard is, his career and cardio both declined significantly after he tested positive for cocaine. The same with Thiago Silva. Does anyone remember Thiago Silva? He used to be ranked in the top 5 in the UFC. Silva's wife posted those videos online of Thiago high on cocaine. It wasn't long before he was losing to guys who aren't ranked in the top 100.

There are many others I could mention but I doubt anyone would recognise their names.

Whenever someone that used to be a good fighter starts to look like a shadow of their former selves, drugs are often involved.

Firas Zahabi is a good coach and a smart guy but I think people will eventually see he was wrong on this.
2874  Economy / Economics / Re: The whole market is going down. Any particular reason for that? on: August 11, 2018, 06:56:42 AM
Guys whole market is going down rapidly. Especially see the ETH price. it is crazy.  

I think you're right. Potentially overvalued ETH is dragging the market down.

It is possible traders and speculators favor a diminished bitcoin thinking if the price declines it will setup an easy pump in the future. Another cause could be traders dumping the holdings they accumulated to send the price higher than $7k. The potential trade war between china and the USA could influence investors into selling their holdings to reduce risk and exposure. The US economy reporting greater growth, tax revenue and job numbers than expected could also mean that investors are deciding to invest in more conventional opportunities which they view as being more reliable than crypto as well.

There are different scenarios which together could contribute to form something like a "perfect storm".

Metrics and indicators could imply that the value of bitcoin should be increasing given its user base has grown substantially over time. These decreases in price could be attributed moreso to market manipulation or media FUD than to natural market mechanics. And so it is difficult to say what forces or influences are responsible for the price movements we see.
2875  Economy / Economics / Re: How does a decline U.S. Dollar can affect Crypto? on: August 11, 2018, 06:46:59 AM
How does a decline U.S. Dollar can affect Crypto?

Robert Kiyosaki says, 'I think the dollar is toast because Gold and Silver and cyber currency are going to take it out'.

How likely it is that it will be true?

I think Turkey sets the precedent for how a declining US dollar will affect crypto. In recent polls, Turkey was credited with having the highest crypto ownership per population size of any nation. Part of this is likely related to the lira (turkey's native currency) inflating at a rate greater than 10% per year. The more conscious people are of their native devaluing currency and high inflation, the more likely they are to invest in crypto currencies.

Paper money will always be more efficient and effective in some roles than electronic currency. Its easier to tip waiters, buy weed, sell goods in flea markets and garage sales and do other things using paper money than using electronic merchant services like credit cards or crypto. This efficiency and effectiveness translates to greater financial flexibility and versatility which ultimately translates to greater economic strength.

Eliminating paper money would be a mistake. It would kill jobs, make life harder for 2nd hand sellers and small businesses and have other negative financial and economic effects.
2876  Economy / Economics / Re: Buffett Market Indicator and my cat's mackerel on: August 11, 2018, 05:04:38 AM
In the past, there has been criticism towards statistics relating to economic growth. Some claimed numbers were misleading due to a large proportion of it being focused in finance and real estate derivatives. Paper growth rather than real economic growth.

That could be part of what we're seeing with Buffett's Indicator inflating. There might not be much of a market when it comes to small business loans, education loans or car loans. Investment could shift towards futures markets and more lucrative options if wealthier demographics have disposable income while everyone else's credit and borrowing options are majority wise tapped out.

I can't remember fully when inflation growth in the united states began to grow @ a faster rate than wages. It could have been around 2008. That negative trend could also contribute towards this.
2877  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [UFC] The wait is over. Khabib vs Conor on: August 11, 2018, 02:51:30 AM
^  Sure McGregor party's a lot (I heard he's a big coke head) but you really can't throw genetics out of the window on why a human body is the way it is.  There are three basic body types, the endomorph, ectomorph and the mesomorph (in which most are a combination of the two or three types), and each has different characteristics.

Obsolete or not, he still has a point.

Here's one example of how coke abuse can damage an athlete's organs, leading to reduced cardio.

Quote
Cocaine damages many other organs in the body. It reduces blood flow in the gastrointestinal tract, which can lead to tears and ulcerations.7 Many chronic cocaine users lose their appetite and experience significant weight loss and malnourishment. Cocaine has significant and well-recognized toxic effects on the heart and cardiovascular system.7,16,20 Chest pain that feels like a heart attack is common and sends many cocaine users to the emergency room.7,20 Cocaine use is linked with increased risk of stroke,16 as well as inflammation of the heart muscle, deterioration of the ability of the heart to contract, and aortic ruptures.20

https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/research-reports/cocaine/what-are-long-term-effects-cocaine-use

I'm not 100% certain if Firas Zahabi has a point. The thing he mentions about muscles binding to a person's bone isn't something I know much about. That's something I need to do more research on.

When MMA fighters have bad cardio though, the most likely causes are PED or drug abuse imo. I would bet a lot of money Firas Zahabi is wrong if he thinks genes are the main cause.

Conor had very good cardio in his earlier UFC fights. Watch his fight with Max Holloway (where he strained or tore his ACL). Conor used to push a fast pace without slowing down.

Its only recently that he's started to have issues.
2878  Economy / Economics / Re: Musk is doing the right thing. on: August 10, 2018, 07:54:24 AM
If I remember correctly, Elon Musk said he was thinking about taking Tesla private. He claimed that he had already found someone who offered funding. Then the media overreacted to things a little, and the SEC launched an investigation. Things might have gotten crazy and blown out of proportion.

Then again, there are investors who are shorting TSLA who literally have bet billions of dollars that the value of TSLA will fall. Elon Musk's announcements of thinking about taking tesla private and claiming to have secured funding would be a nightmare to anyone shorting TSLA.

Elon Musk is like a comic book super hero or super villain with the way he comes out of left field with unpredictable crazy ideas no one else would attempt much less execute successfully, the way he does.

I don't know what Musk's motivation was but TSLA's stock price went up & that may be all that matters within the short term.
2879  Economy / Economics / We Wanted Safer Banks. We Got More Inequality. on: August 10, 2018, 07:48:02 AM
Quote
How regulations after the financial crisis, along with a heavy-handed Fed, have hurt the middle class.

A few years ago, one of Karen Petrou’s banking clients gave her an unusual assignment: It wanted her to write a paper laying out “the unintended consequences of the post-financial-crisis capital framework.” Petrou is the co-founder of Federal Financial Analytics Inc., a financial services consulting firm in Washington that focuses on public policy and regulatory issues. She is also, as the American Banker once described her, “the sharpest mind analyzing banking policy today — maybe ever.” Whenever I’m writing about banking issues, she’s the first person I call.

Writing that paper caused Petrou to ask a question she’d never really considered before: Did the bank regulations enacted after the 2008 crisis — along with the Federal Reserve’s post-crisis monetary policy — exacerbate income inequality? Her answer, which she laid out in a series of blog posts, as well as a lecture at the New York Federal Reserve in March, was yes. “Post-crisis monetary and regulatory policy had an unintended but nonetheless dramatic impact on the income and wealth divides,” she wrote recently.

That particular sentence was in a blog post devoted to a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis that evaluated income and wealth inequality from 1949 to 2016. The study certainly seems to validate her thesis. It shows that between 1989 and 2007, the top 10 percent increased their share of the nation’s wealth by just 5.8 percent. But in just the next nine years, between 2007 and 2016, the richest Americans captured an additional 8.3 percent of the country’s wealth. Meanwhile, those in the 50 percent to 90 percent wealth bracket saw their share of the nation’s wealth drop by 17 percent, and those in the bottom 50 percent saw a 52 percent drop. The single biggest variable that changed after 2007 was the way banking was conducted and regulated.

Petrou has written a book outlining her analysis of the problem — and her proposed solutions — which will be published next spring by Yale University Press. Not wanting to wait that long, I visited her recently to get a sneak preview.

JN: Let’s cut to the chase. How does banking accelerate income inequality?

KP: First, as the country becomes more unequal, there are fewer middle class customers. That means middle class bank products become unprofitable, and banks follow the money. And banking regulations make it worse because the capital requirements imposed after the banking crisis make it a lot more expensive for banks to do a startup small-business loan than go into wealth management. Startup loans are riskier than wealth management, of course, but the capital costs have become prohibitive, and banks don’t lose money on purpose.

JN: Can you really blame the banks for behaving in this fashion?

KP: I’m not blaming the banks. I’m blaming the unintended consequences of the rules. I think the rules unduly penalize equality-enhancing financial services.

JN: Can you give me an example?

KP: Thanks to the new capital requirements, it’s basically impossible for banks to make mortgage loans to anyone but wealthy customers, unless they can send the loan to the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) or taxpayer-backed Ginnie Mae. And the new capital requirements also discourage banks even from sending loans to the GSEs or Ginnie — if the loan to a low, moderate-, or middle-income borrower is kept on the bank’s books, there’s a very large capital charge at the front end; if it’s sold, the bank still has to hold back-end capital in case the loan defaults and comes back to the bank. Nonbank mortgage originators — which have eclipsed bank lending in the last few years — face none of these capital charges, but they also can make no loans they don’t sell on to investors. Their entire focus is on booking loans for an upfront fee and sending them on to these taxpayer-backed entities. Without capital at risk, these nonbanks (companies such as Quicken Loans Inc.) also have a lot less at risk if loans eventually default. As a result, high-risk mortgage lending is making a comeback. Let me be clear — I’m not against post-crisis capital standards designed to prevent lenders from making high-risk loans that put only the borrower or taxpayer at risk. There’s no quicker way to make Americans even less equal than to expose vulnerable homeowners to foreclosure. What I am saying is that now some lenders — banks — are under rules so tough they can’t support equality-enhancing mortgages and other lenders are totally outside the post-crisis “skin in the game” rules designed to end high-risk, predatory lending. This asymmetry redefines the market in ways risky all over again, to both vulnerable borrowers and the taxpayer.

JN: Would you have said that this was a problem prior to the financial crisis?

KP: If I had known to look for it, I would probably have said it was a problem. It’s common knowledge that income inequality in the U.S. has been getting increasingly worse since 1980. But what I’ve been pointing out in some of my blog posts is that it became hugely worse after the financial crisis. Were there underlying issues pre-2008? Absolutely. But we had more of a middle class even in 2006 than we do now. By a lot.

JN: How does the Minneapolis Fed study add to our understanding of the causes of income inequality?

KP: There are a lot of things that helped bring about income inequality in the US – crummy education, the decline of middle-class manufacturing jobs, technological innovation and so on. But if you look at the Minneapolis Fed data, as well as many other analyses, it happens gradually prior to 2008. Then it actually flattens out in 2008 because rich people lost money in the crash, which narrowed the inequality gap. But starting in 2010, the gap widens dramatically. The one really big change are the post-crisis rules. And, very importantly, the Fed also changed the way money moved.

JN: What do you mean by that?

KP: The Fed did two things with huge inequality implications. First, with its massive quantitative easing, it sucked $4.5 trillion of assets out of the banking system. The idea was that it would empty out the bank balance sheets so that they would start to make loans. And that didn’t happen —initially the banks were too weak, and as they recovered, the rules created significant impediments. If you look at who is getting loans it is large corporations, not small businesses. Second, the Fed’s low-interest policy gave rise to yield-chasing. And what has the stock market done since 2010? Everybody who has money has seen their financial assets appreciate dramatically. Everybody who doesn’t have money, which is the bottom 90 percent, what is their principal source of wealth? Houses? House-price appreciation for expensive houses is way up since 2012. But overall, real U.S. house prices are down 10 percent.

JN: Isn’t the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to take up the slack and make it possible for people to buy homes?

KP: Yes. But they’re not. If you look at the credit scores of mortgages that Fannie and Freddie are buying, they are way up — the average is something like 740, of a possible 850.

JN: What does the Federal Reserve say about your criticism?

KP: I should stress, first of all, that the Fed certainly didn’t set about to make income inequality worse. It is an unintended consequence of its efforts to stimulate the economy while tightening bank regulations — two goals that are fundamentally incompatible. Essentially, though, the Fed denies that it played a role in income inequality. The Fed is always saying, “Look what we did — record low unemployment!” But that is partly because it takes two or three wage earners in a household to make ends meet now. So, yes, you see more employment, but people are really struggling. The whole Fed view of monetary policy is based on the view that if you stimulate the economy, wealthier people will buy a lot of stuff, and companies will have more money to invest in plants and hire more people. And that is totally not happening.

JN: If you were in charge, how would you solve this?

KP: I have two ideas, and they are both hard. On monetary policy, I really think the Fed needs to step back. It has been essentially running the market, and allocating credit, since 2008. And they don’t mean to be. They really don’t. But they are.

JN: What does it mean to step back?

KP: I think it would mean to taper their portfolio far more quickly than they are. If the economy is in a real recovery, why does the Fed still need to hold $4.5 trillion of the funds that should be out working in the economy and keep interest rates below zero in real terms?

JN: How would it help income inequality?

KP: It would normalize markets. People would hold a lot more money in lower-risk assets as opposed to stock equities, which would start to generate more productive economic activity over time instead of just fueling more speculative betting.

JN: And your second idea?

KP: The Fed needs to let interest rates normalize. Right now, what the Fed calls the neutral rate — the rate that drives their thinking  — is about 2 percent. The previous neutral rate had been 5 percent. Think about that on an inflation-adjusted return. Back in the day when Treasury bills were 5 percent or higher, if I had my savings in that, I could make money in low-risk assets. If you have monetary policy where the rate is 2, that combined with the 2 percent inflation, and you will have a permanently impoverished middle class. My main call in my book is that the Fed needs to think about that.

JN: Anything else?

KP: There is one other thing. When the Fed looks at their data, they think everything is great. Unemployment is low, profits are up, and so on. But the median net worth today is $97,000. In 2004, it was $102,000 — which is actually $140,000 in purchasing power today. Look at the difference! I would argue for an inclusive monetary policy that factors in the real world of higher income people not buying stuff, lower income people with huge debt burden, no middle class, and so on. And with 60 percent of American financial assets outside the banking system, a monetary policy system predicated on banks being the means through which the economy is stimulated, well, it just doesn’t work anymore. So that is what I think.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-06/inequality-why-bank-rules-and-fed-rates-hurt-middle-class

....

Here we have a different perspective on things. Some say Karen Petrou is one of the best banking industry analysts in the entire world.

I tried to bold the best parts but tbh the whole thing is well worth reading for anyone interested in these topics.

Wealth inequality and its implications are the leading theme here. It would seem that there are many unintended side effects ranging from real estate to small business loans which are negatively affected by rises in wealth/wage inequality. Some of the things she said about GSEs are over my head. Have to do research sometime to try to decipher that part.

This could provide a stark contrast to the "fractional reserve banking is 100% benevolent and benefits society/civilization" theme commonly taught in school courses although I suspect it will be a long time before anything this woman says is proven true. If indeed that day ever comes.
2880  Economy / Economics / IBM-Maersk blockchain alliance cuts oceanic shipping times by 40% on: August 09, 2018, 11:59:02 PM
Quote
The TradeLens shipping partnership now has 94 partners, despite blockchain skeptics

Did you just get a TV from Tokyo or flowers from France? Blockchain, that potentially disruptive but much-derided technology, might have helped deliver the goods.

A blockchain-based IBM partnership with global shipping colossus Maersk has now expanded to include 94 partners, Big Blue said Thursday. That includes shippers, customs houses, ports and others that have to wrangle paperwork as containers full of goods move around the world.

The result is shipping times that dropped a whopping 40 percent on average, according to Marie Wieck, who leads IBM's 1,600-employee blockchain work.


That's the kind of improvement that every inventory manager and bean-counter in accounting loves. And it ultimately means lower prices for anyone buying that TV or those flowers.

Six decades ago, the standard-size shipping container famously revolutionized shipping. Blockchain could do the same.

"We believe it has the potential to have the same amount of impact on the process," Wieck said.

Wait, what's blockchain again?
Blockchain cuts paperwork-handling hassles by a factor of 10 by making it easier for everyone involved to get bills of lading, sanitary certificates, customs releases, invoices and other necessary documents, Wieck said. Before blockchain's swifter processing, a "container spent more time in the ports than in the ocean" when shipping flowers from Mombasa, Kenya, to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, she said.

Blockchain lets cooperating companies or people share data -- sales transactions or property records, for example -- on a shared network of computers. The information is distributed across all of them instead of isolated on just one, an idea called a shared ledger, with encryption technology writing the data to all the systems in an ever-lengthening series of interlinked blocks.[

Blockchain bakes trust into transactions because a single database eliminates some he-said, she-said disagreements that ordinarily crop up when multiple parties are trying to reconcile two separate databases. Encryption technology ensures that transactions really are between the parties involved.


The blockchain idea grew out of bitcoin and stores transaction data for all other cryptocurrencies, too. But much of the enthusiasm for blockchain is from its use in other domains, everything from voting and lotteries to ID cards and graphics rendering.

Blockchain skeptics
Still, blockchain has plenty of detractors who think of it as a solution in search of a problem.

Vint Cerf, one of the creators of the internet, tweeted a photo of a flowchart for tackling the issue. The top box in the flowchart states: "Do I need a blockchain?" A single arrow points to another box: "No."

The chief executive of Western Union, a partner in a high-profile blockchain money-transfer project from startup Ripple, said in June that so far, "it's still too expensive."

But TradeLens shows there's enthusiasm, too. Among its 94 partners are shippers Pacific International Lines and Hamburg Süd; customs authorities in the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Australia and Peru; and port operators in Philadelphia, Hong Kong, Rotterdam, Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Bilbao, Spain.

IBM rival SAP, a business software maker and another blockchain fan, said that the reality of blockchain is that it's not a get-rich-quick scheme.

Blockchain is a business network, said Gil Perez, SAP's senior vice president of products and innovations. "It is critical for multiple companies to come together and agree on a business process, which is lengthening the adoption of blockchain in the enterprise," he said.

SAP has a blockchain project for shipping, logistics and customs, too, and it's working with partners including the US Customs and Border Protection agency and shipping company UPS.

Logging a million events per day
That work is in the proof-of-concept stage. IBM's TradeLens service is part of IBM's early adopter program, but it's up and running in the real world. It captures more than a million shipping events each day, 154 million in total so far.

"We don't see scalability as a factor at all," Wieck said.

TradeLens for now has been a closed partnership, but that's changing. "We're anticipating opening up general availability for anybody who wants to join later this year," Wieck said. Cryptocurrencies use public blockchains, which means anyone can operate a node on the network and contribute transactions, but TradeLens uses a more restrictive "permissioned" approach with some controls on participation. It maintains the core blockchain idea of distributing data across multiple servers, though.


Also Thursday, IBM opened a programming interface that will let other companies' computer systems interact with the blockchain. IBM charges for access to the TradeLens, offering it online as software as a service and sharing revenue with founding partners.

IBM has found it's needed to make course corrections with TradeLens -- for example, in the types of documents stored on the blockchain and the "onboarding" process to enlist new partners. But when done right, the blockchain greases the wheels of commerce.

"When there is real transparency to all data on the chain, you have less disputes because everybody has seamless visibility," Wieck said. "We feel very comfortable about the model having value for the different types of participants."  

https://www.cnet.com/news/ibm-maersk-tradelens-blockchain-alliance-cuts-shipping-times-40-percent/

"Blockchain makes everything better!"

....

Looks like we finally have real world application based data on what blockchain's long term potential is. Its nice to see some actual results based on evidence rather than the vaporware back and forth discussions we've seen where some may have been a little overly optimistic towards blockchain's potential. While others may have been a bit too closed minded and unwilling to consider potential for improvement in software based systems. Sometimes the real example falls somewhere in the middle between optimism and pessimism and perhaps that is what we're seeing here.

That said I'm not certain blockchains major contributions in this case are being reaped so much as the advantages are based on data sharing. I wonder if we'll ever see a block diagram, flowchart or visual model which would help the average joe to appreciate the progress and innovation being made here on a more explicit basis.
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