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2301  Economy / Economics / Re: bitcoin dont pay our billls we need passive income on: September 15, 2020, 02:59:59 AM
Smiley there is need for passive income


If you break down basic human needs, they trend towards looking something like this.

  • Shelter
  • Food
  • Electricity
  • Transportation

One might say, people need better, more affordable and easier ways to acquire shelter, food, electricity, transportation and other basic necessities.

That's a goal we're pursuing to elevate standard of living.

Some methods we might utilize to achieve this.

Shelter

-Increasing work from home opportunities makes it easier for people to transition to neighborhoods with lower cost rent.

Food

-Communal gardens and community farming programs can produce higher quality food at reduced cost.

Electricity

-Innovations like Elon Musk's 100 megawatt lithium grid battery carry the potential to revolutionize industries and greatly reduce cost of power:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8082841/Elon-Musks-Tesla-battery-farm-saved-South-Australia-116-MILLION.html

Transportation

-Lyft, uber and similar options are opening doors and giving people more opportunities in life.

...

If the goal is to improve standard of living and give people greater options in life.

Offering tax credits, tax cuts and deregulating industries which drive innovation and help people to solve issues relating to food, shelter, transportation and power would normally be the way to go.
2302  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Is there a way to buy a Coursera course with Bitcoin? on: September 15, 2020, 02:23:19 AM
You could therefore buy a prepaid credit card from a site such as https://www.coinsbee.com/, and then use that prepaid card to purchase your course.


Does anyone know how those prepaid cards compare to blockcard or bitpay's reloadable cards.

https://getblockcard.com/
https://bitpay.com/card/

Which is more widely accepted and more likely to process through merchant gateways.   Huh
2303  Economy / Economics / Re: money is root of evil on: September 15, 2020, 02:01:59 AM
If designing a program to eliminate money from food production industry were the goal.

  • Governments cede land towards the purpose of growing crops
  • Homeless populations are given the option of farming and growing food on said land on a volunteer basis in exchange for benefits: room, board, food, job training, education, internet access, transportation, etc
  • The growth and production of food is overseen and regulated by professionals on a volunteer basis
  • The public is allowed to procure a limited number of food items at no charge, or significantly reduced cost

There is much that can be learned by growing fruits and vegetables. Communal gardens and community based farming programs could also be great options.
2304  Economy / Economics / Re: Real estate vs. Bitcoin on: September 11, 2020, 11:57:46 PM
Real estate could be deflationary in nature similar to bitcoin. Real estate development and construction have not maintained pace with population growth, making real estate scarce(r) in supply. The main bottleneck preventing real estate from appreciating in value is wealth and wage inequality limiting the number of people who can afford to buy it. That malus to consumer purchasing power and demand could devalue real estate below its actual market value.

You've got it backwards. The actual market value is based on real supply and demand. Houses are only worth what people are able and willing to pay. Similar to Chinese ghost cities, just because you build them doesn't make them valuable or in demand. If a house cost you more to build than what it can sell for on the market, you've just made a poor investment. That's all.


There could be correlation and causation between unaffordable assets and deflationary paradigms.

I'll give you an example. Healthcare could be considered deflationary in ways which leads to it being unaffordable. The doctor to patient ratio in the USA is something like 1 doctor for every 1,000+ patients. Wheras other nations are luckier to have doctor to patient ratios nearer to 1:300. In past years america's doctor to patient ratio was lower. In a sense we have a situation where there are fewer doctors in terms of overall patients similar to bitcoin rewards halving.

Real estate is identically inflationary in ways. Imagine what would happen if the human population doubled while the amount of homes, apartments and living space remained the same. Real estate would become a scarce and somewhat deflationary asset similar to doctors in the US becoming scarcer in a somewhat deflationary format.

I hope that clarifies things. Not certain where you disagreed with me, here. It seems as if we're both saying the same thing.
2305  Economy / Economics / Re: Money printing about Australia on: September 10, 2020, 11:58:22 PM
AFAIK the main issue with inflation is it having been redefined decades ago, to illustrate a prettier picture of the economy than what facts might reveal. The federal reserve often reports an inflation rate of 3%. Using the old definition of inflation the real rate of inflation would be closer to 10%. These numbers can be important as they represent how much a person's savings must appreciate in value in order to avoid depreciation.

They're also important in terms of wage devaluation. The EU has a standard whereby worker wages are compared to inflation to retain some semblance of wage equality. I wouldn't view their system as representing a gold standard but its much better than how the united states does things.

Inflation is often utilized as a means of wealth redistribution. It conceals and masks how larger proportions of income are often distributed to top earners at the expense of lower income brackets.
2306  Economy / Economics / Re: Real estate vs. Bitcoin on: September 10, 2020, 11:45:34 PM
Real estate could be deflationary in nature similar to bitcoin. Real estate development and construction have not maintained pace with population growth, making real estate scarce(r) in supply. The main bottleneck preventing real estate from appreciating in value is wealth and wage inequality limiting the number of people who can afford to buy it. That malus to consumer purchasing power and demand could devalue real estate below its actual market value.

Bitcoin purchase of real estate could be a standard worth pursuing. If both remain deflationary and stable in nature. Essentially buyers and sellers would be swapping one deflationary asset for another. Which could be preferable to swapping a deflationary asset in real estate for an inflationary fiat currency.
2307  Economy / Economics / Re: CHINA WILL CUT HOLDINGS OF U.S TREAS FROM CURRENT ABOVE $1T TO ABOUT $800B on: September 04, 2020, 11:59:36 PM
China, russia, japan and others have implemented "US de dollarization" policies over the past 10+ years.

They've drastically reduced holdings of US bonds, dollars and debt. The federal reserve is now the largest holder of US bonds.

Its not the most equal relationship in global affairs, seeing as how the federal reserve (probably) loans free cash to foreign banks to stimulate foreign economies. While foreign nations are unwilling to do the same for the united states.
2308  Economy / Economics / PornHub now accepts Bitcoin and Litecoin (News coincides with BTC decline?) on: September 04, 2020, 11:52:32 PM
Quote
Pornhub now accepts Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) as payment for its premium services. The company has been accepting Verge since 2018, later adding several other cryptocurrencies, but this is its first foray into the major leagues. Pornhub’s vice president Corey Price said in the press release:

“As a leader in adult content with over 130 million visitors per day, Pornhub is excited to now offer two widely-used and leading digital currencies for our users. Our team continues to pave the way for tech development, testing and implementing new technology for everyday consumers far ahead of the mainstream market.”

Pornhub is a year older than Bitcoin, having been founded in 2007 in Montreal, Canada. Currently, it stands as the world’s ninth most popular website with 3 billion monthly visitors.

Cryptocurrency and porn have been forever commingled in society’s subconscious. This relationship goes back to pre-Bitcoin days as many cypherpunks believed that porn would be an early adopter of non-governmental digital currencies.

Satoshi Nakamoto himself voiced similar opinions in 2010:

Quote
“Bitcoin would be convenient for people who don't have a credit card or don't want to use the cards they have, either don't want the spouse to see it on the bill or don't trust giving their number to "porn guys", or afraid of recurring billing.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pornhub-now-accepts-bitcoin-and-litecoin


....



Pornhub announced support for bitcoin and litecoin on september 1st. A large downtrend in BTC price followed shortly thereafter.

Does correlation equate to causation in this case. From past history we know banks closed accounts of hundreds of porn stars for no apparent reason:

Quote
Chase closes hundreds of porn stars’ accounts

The move has sparked fury throughout the adult entertainment industry, with workers saying they had no idea why they were being targeted.

Chase bank sent letters to industry workers revealing the accounts would be closed next month.

https://nypost.com/2014/04/28/chase-closes-the-accounts-of-hundreds-of-porn-stars/

With banks becoming more crypto currency integrated, it could naturally follow they would temporarily crash the price of bitcoin, for whatever reasons they've often decided to make life harder for pornstars and adult entertainers in the past.
2309  Economy / Economics / Re: The debt based Economy on: August 29, 2020, 09:51:06 AM
Debt is the economic equivalent to leverage with investments or gambling. Higher economic debt is correlated with greater potential profit in finance. This is the reason behind investment banks preferring debt based economies. In theory the debt portion of the economy allows them to make bigger leveraged debt based investments, which in theory, allow for bigger profits and paydays.

It comes at greater risk, reduced economic and financial stability. The results of playing with leveraged debt based assets can be disastrous as we've witnessed with debt bubbles associated with the "subprime mortgage" collapse of 2008.

People trend towards discussing systemic faults or benefits present in paradigms like debt based economies in an effort to comprehend and explain events. Human nature is defined in terms of wanting to simplify and generalize one thing being intrinsically superior to something else in a world of black and white.

I think culture plays a big role that is neglected. Business culture and general pop culture are not static constants. They shift and change over time.
2310  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy will continue to recover - Powell on: August 29, 2020, 09:16:47 AM
What are you saying exactly? The bubble keeps inflating for 2-3 more years and then comes the blood?



I see Bill Gates endorsing the expansion of nuclear power atm. On the other hand, I see the media publishing questionable pieces attacking renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Claiming silicon in landfills from depleted solar panels is more damaging to the environment and climate change than emissions associated with burning coal.

The only interpretation I can think of to explain these and other precedents is ruling elites favor centralized energy sources like nuclear power. It gives governments centralized control over the production and distribution of electricity. Solar and wind are more decentralized, they allow private citizens to install solar panels or wind turbines on their own private property. Producing their own energy makes them more independent and less reliant upon the state.

I think there is a quiet struggle occurring where states and governments structure daily life to make people more reliant and less independent. They don't want to spook people, rock the boat or wake anyone up.
2311  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold and Bitcoin history on: August 28, 2020, 12:18:56 PM
Maybe few price Differnces then what is the Bitcoin price Now?  Its high Medium or low according to comparsion history of Gold?




One might say gold's value is relative to its capacity to solve problems. Fiat is the same. Their value is derived from how well they solve problems faced by global finance. Can bitcoin solve problems relating to retail, store of value and currency exchange better than precious metals, cash, credit cards and other options?

One facet of the debate revolves around whether Satoshi Nakamoto succeeded in inventing a better mousetrap which will inevitably revolutionize the way people think about and utilize money. We can see hints of this occurring in finance. Stock brokers copied the low commission model utilized by crypto exchanges. Banks are holding crypto as a form of collateral and hedge against fiat/markets.

I suspect gold reached its ceiling and fulfilled its potential a long time ago. It defines a global standard but remains past its prime. Bitcoin is the future.
2312  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy will continue to recover - Powell on: August 28, 2020, 12:10:11 PM
I was reading Powell (chairman of the FED) statement on US economy, and he’s used the words like starts and stops for the economy, and for a second I started to wonder did I just open an F1 news report?.

It’s pertinent to focus on his words which clearly mean that we may see some positive movements in the economy, but along with it we should brace ourselves for negative side effects too which shall last way longer than we all had initially hoped for.



I get the impression the fed is normalizing the crisis in an effort to avoid rocking the boat. Similar to how they downplayed and trivialized the US real estate bubble for years before it occurred.

Below you can see fed chairman Ben Bernanke downplay the significance of the housing bubble from 2005 until the crisis finally hit hard in 2008.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

History could somewhat be repeating itself here.
2313  Economy / Economics / Re: Stock market, bubbles, US economy, distribution of wealth...Americans=no savings on: August 27, 2020, 02:02:35 PM
Without getting political...it seems every 10 or so years we see another bubble burst, my question to you economic experts:



The basic anatomy of a bubble is identical to pump and dump cycles present in cryptocurrency trading since day 1.

A bubble occurs when pre miners attempt to unload significantly overpriced assets onto the market.

Whether they're selling an ICO that claims to cure cancer via colloidal silver, some derivative of student loan debt or subprime mortgage CDOs. There isn't necessarily a relevent difference there.

2314  Economy / Economics / Re: Covid 19 shows how weak People are in the it mind on: August 27, 2020, 01:52:24 PM
There is so many Opportunities now


That could be true, if opportunities are intrinsically created when new problems arise that must be solved. We certainly have many problems at the moment.

There will definitely be those who will create an app, a website, a company or something that addresses issues stemming from the corona virus pandemic. Like the 17 year old who created a world famous corona statistic tracking website who later turned down more than $1 million dollars in ad proposals.

I guess the biggest issue is large retailers like target and walmart are innovating and extending operations to solve most of the common sense issues relating to the pandemic. They've unrolled a service called shipt which delivers groceries and product to peoples homes, while extending existing services to include testing for the virus. Those trends consume many of the financial and business opportunities the pandemic produces.

There may still be business opportunities available for home education and related sectors. Schools closing could produce opportunities for tutoring and home based internet education.

In that sense, there could be options available out there. Are they good options though.
2315  Economy / Economics / Re: Monkeys: Don't do trend analysis! (with poll) on: August 27, 2020, 01:14:04 PM
Why does this thing happen? Well, there is a theory called "Random Walk Theory."



Post 2008 financial crisis, there was an attempt made at forensics to distinguish primary causes of the meltdown. One of the observations made during this time was industry standard financial software emulating brownian motion in physics to randomize the future behavior of consumers and markets.

The projected future behavior of consumers and markets being randomized created a type of observational blind spot where some consumers would be projected to buy while others sold. But never in a timeframe where they all bought or sold simultaneously, which would precipitate large market rises or crashes. This led to software utilized in the financial industry being unable to predict the subprime mortgage crash. So it was claimed anyway.

Everything said about random walk theory and related content would appear to be new age ideology of MMT - modern monetary theory.
2316  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Los Alamos National Laboratory is building an anti crypto mining AI on: August 27, 2020, 12:59:23 PM
Security researchers have claimed PC anti malware suites utilize scanning and signature updates to boost profits. They make more money charging consumers for their monthly virus update packages than they would in a one shot cure all product. Imagine if it were possible for anti virus vendors to engineer an AI based platform that seldom if ever needed monthly updates. That could be what we're witnessing here. A paradigm shift in IDS/PC security/anti malware markets.

I somewhat doubt claims of AI being involved. The definition of AI in this day and age has become blurred to where brute force applications that calculate every possible move in chess are considered a form of intelligence. I'm not certain if brute forcers which attempt every possible combination of letters to break a password would be considered intelligent. It is possible this same observation applies to "chess AI programs" which are only a little smarter.

Its questionable as to whether there would be any real advantage to having AI involved in IDS/security. There are scenarios where it could be a disadvantage due to contextual and critical thinking limitations. Similar to limitations tesla's self driving cars have.
2317  Economy / Economics / On eve of bankruptcy U.S. firms shower execs with bonuses on: August 26, 2020, 02:44:07 PM
Quote
(Reuters) - Nearly a third of more than 40 large companies seeking U.S. bankruptcy protection during the coronavirus pandemic awarded bonuses to executives within a month of filing their cases, according to a Reuters analysis of securities filings and court records.

Under a 2005 bankruptcy law, companies are banned, with few exceptions, from paying executives retention bonuses while in bankruptcy. But the firms seized on a loophole by granting payouts before filing.

Six of the 14 companies that approved bonuses within a month of their filings cited business challenges executives faced during the pandemic in justifying the compensation.

Even more firms paid bonuses in the half-year period before their bankruptcies. Thirty-two of the 45 companies Reuters examined approved or paid bonuses within six months of filing. Nearly half authorized payouts within two months.

Eight companies, including J.C. Penney Co Inc and Hertz Global Holdings Inc, approved bonuses as few as five days before seeking bankruptcy protection. Hi-Crush Inc, a supplier of sand for oil-and-gas fracking, paid executive bonuses two days before its July 12 filing.

J.C. Penney - forced to temporarily close its 846 department stores and furlough about 78,000 of its 85,000 employees as the pandemic spread - approved nearly $10 million in payouts just before its May 15 filing. On Wednesday, the company said it would permanently close 152 stores and lay off 1,000 employees.

The company declined to comment for this story but said in an earlier statement that the bonuses aimed to retain a “talented management team” that had made progress on a turnaround before the pandemic.

The other companies declined to comment or did not respond. In filings, many said economic turmoil had rendered traditional compensation plans obsolete or that executives getting bonuses had forfeited other compensation.

Luxury retailer Neiman Marcus Group in March temporarily closed all of its 67 stores and in April furloughed more than 11,000 employees. The company paid $4 million in bonuses to Chairman and Chief Executive Geoffroy van Raemdonck in February and more than $4 million to other executives in the weeks before its May 7 bankruptcy filing, court records show. Neiman Marcus drew scrutiny this week on a plan it proposed after filing for bankruptcy to pay additional bonuses to executives. The company declined to comment.

Hertz - which recently terminated more than 14,000 workers - paid senior executives bonuses of $1.5 million days before its May 22 bankruptcy, in part to recognize the uncertainty they faced from the pandemic’s impact on travel, the company said in a filing.

Whiting Petroleum Corp bestowed $14.6 million in extra compensation to executives days before its April 1 bankruptcy. Shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corp awarded $25 million to executives and lower-level employees in May, about eight weeks before filing bankruptcy. Both cited fallout from the pandemic and a Saudi-Russian oil price war, which they said rendered their incentive plans ineffective.

Reuters reviewed financial disclosures and court records from 45 companies that filed for bankruptcy between March 11, the day the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and July 15. Using a database provided by BankruptcyData, a division of New Generation Research Inc, Reuters reviewed companies with publicly trade stock or debt and more than $50 million in liabilities.

Such bonuses have long spurred objections that companies are enriching executives while cutting jobs, stiffing creditors and wiping out stock investors. In March, creditors sued former Toys ‘R’ Us executives and directors, accusing them of misdeeds that included paying management bonuses days before its 2017 bankruptcy. The retailer liquidated in 2018, terminating more than 31,000 people.

A lawyer for the executives and directors said the bonuses were justified, given the extra work and stress on management, and that Toys ‘R’ Us had hoped to remain in business after restructuring.

In June, congressional Democrats responded to the pandemic-induced wave of bankruptcies by introducing legislation that would strengthen creditors’ rights to claw back bonuses. The bill - the latest iteration of a proposal that has long failed to gain traction - faces slim prospects in a Republican-controlled Senate, a Democratic aide said.

Firms paying pre-bankruptcy bonuses know they would face scrutiny in court on compensation proposed after their filings, said Clifford J. White III, director of the U.S. Trustee Program, a Justice Department division charged with monitoring bankruptcy proceedings. But the trustees have no power to halt bonuses paid even days before a company’s bankruptcy filing, he said, allowing firms to “escape the transparency and court review.”

DODGING BONUS RESTRICTIONS

The 2005 legislation required executives and other corporate insiders to have a competing job offer in hand before receiving retention bonuses during bankruptcy, among other restrictions. That forced failing firms to devise new ways to pay the bonuses, according to some restructuring experts.

After the 2008 financial crisis, companies often proposed bonuses in bankruptcy court, casting them as incentive plans with goals executives must meet. Judges mostly approved the plans, ruling that the performance benchmarks put the compensation beyond the purview of the restrictions on retention bonuses. The plans, however, sparked objections from Justice Department monitors who called them retention bonuses in disguise, often with easy milestones.

Eventually, companies found they could avoid scrutiny altogether by approving bonuses before bankruptcy filings. Dozens of companies have approved such payouts in the last five years, said Brian Cumberland, an executive compensation expert at consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal who advises companies undergoing financial restructurings.

Companies argue the bonuses are crucial to retaining executives whose departures could torpedo their businesses, ultimately leaving less money for creditors and employees. Now, some companies are bolstering those arguments by contending that their business would not have cratered without the economic turmoil of the pandemic.

The pre-bankruptcy payouts are needed, companies say, because potential stock awards are worthless and it would be impossible for executives to meet business targets that were crafted before the economic crisis. The bonuses ensure stability in leadership that is needed to hold faltering operations together, the firms contend.

Some specialists argue the bonuses are hard to justify for executives who may have few better job options in an economic crisis.

“With double-digit unemployment, it’s a strange time to be paying out retention bonuses,” said Adam Levitin, a professor specializing in bankruptcy at Georgetown University’s law school.

CLOSED STORES, BIG BONUSES
J.C. Penney has not posted an annual profit since 2010 as it has struggled to grapple with the shift to online shopping and competition from discount retailers. The 118-year-old chain, at various points, employed more than 200,000 people and operated 1,600 stores, figures that have since been cut more than half.

On May 10, J.C. Penney’s board approved compensation changes that paid top executives, including CEO Jill Soltau, nearly $10 million. On May 13, Soltau received a $1.7 million long-term incentive payment and a $4.5 million retention bonus, court filings show.

The annual pay of the company’s median employee, a part-time hourly worker, was $11,482 in 2019, a company filing shows.

J.C. Penney filed for bankruptcy two days after paying Soltau’s bonuses. At a hearing the next day, a creditors’ lawyer argued the payouts were designed to thwart court review. The payouts were timed “so that they didn’t have to put it in front of you,” said the lawyer, Kristopher Hansen, addressing U.S. Bankruptcy Judge David Jones.

Jones - who is also overseeing the Whiting Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy and Neiman Marcus cases - told Reuters that such bonuses are “always a concern” in bankruptcy cases. “That said, the adversarial process demands that parties put the issue before me before I can take action,” he added, emphasizing he was speaking of general dynamics applicable to any case. “A comment made in passing by a lawyer is not sufficient.”

In its statement earlier this year, J.C. Penney said the bonuses were among a series of “tough, prudent decisions” taken to safeguard the firm’s future.

Dennis Marten - a shareholder who said he once worked at a J.C. Penney store - disagrees. He has appeared at court hearings pleading for an investigation of the company’s leadership.

“Shame on her for having the gall to get that money,” he said of Soltau.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-bankruptcy-bonuses/on-eve-of-bankruptcy-us-firms-shower-execs-with-bonuses-idUSKCN24I1EE


....


Similar events occurred post 2008 economic crisis. Bank CEO's who may or may not have been responsible for causing the economic crisis, received "golden parachute" bonuses.

I sometimes wonder if events such as these may have motivated Satoshi to create bitcoin.

There is an interesting precedent on display here where those who may least need cash are the demographic being given a disproportionately large sum of it. In the past these events have been compared to bribery. Where CEOs in leadership positions were "paid off" to push one political agenda or other. There are many different interpretations and systemic observations which can be drawn from events such as these. And perhaps one of the biggest questions may be why they receive so little publicity.

2318  Economy / Economics / Re: Economy over health on: August 26, 2020, 02:35:51 PM
Everyone emphasizes casualties inflicted by corona virus.

The neglected inverse angle could be one where we attempt to estimate the number of casualties inflicted by economic shutdown. Then compare the two statistics to guessestimate whether quarantine is saving lives or having an overall opposite effect.

It is known that economic crisis (and perhaps economic shutdown) greatly increases statistics relating to suicide, violence, crime, drug overdoses and other negatives. There were news stories published months ago claiming more were dying from suicide associated with lockdown, than were dying from the actual virus.

Quote
Suicide leading cause for over 300 lockdown deaths in India, says study

NEW DELHI: Suicide was the leading cause for over 300 “non-coronavirus deaths” reported in India due to distress triggered by the nationwide lockdown, revealed a new set of data compiled by a group of researchers.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/suicide-leading-cause-for-over-300-lockdown-deaths-in-india-says-study/articleshow/75519279.cms
2319  Economy / Economics / Re: Why has the s&p500 already made a full recovery? on: August 26, 2020, 02:22:40 PM
I was just looking at the comparisons of the charts between the dax, uk ftse and s&p500 and it looks like the S&P has has majorly outperformed the others but I'm trying to work out why?



This news story below outlines the standard explanation.

....

Quote
The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008

The bull market just celebrated its seventh anniversary. But the gains in recent years – as well as its recent sputter – may be explained by just one thing: monetary policy.

The factors behind that and previous bubbles can be illuminated using simple visual analysis of a chart.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) doubled in value from November 2008 to October 2014, coinciding with the Federal Reserve Bank’s “quantitative easing” asset purchasing program. After three rounds of “QE,” where the Fed poured billions of dollars into the bond market monthly, the Fed’s balance sheet went from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion.

This isn’t just a spurious correlation, according to economist Brian Barnier, principal at ValueBridge Advisors and founder of FedDashboard.com. What’s more, he says previous bull runs in the market lasting several years can also be explained by single factors each time.

Barnier first compiled data on the total value of publicly-traded U.S. stocks since 1950. He then divided it by another economic factor, graphing the ratio for each one. If the chart showed horizontal lines stretching over long periods of time, that meant both the numerator (stock values) and the denominator (the other factor) were moving at the same rate.

“That's the beauty of the visual analysis,” he said. “All we have to do is find straight, stable lines and we know we've got something good.”

Scouring hundreds of different factors, Barnier ultimately whittled it down to just four factors: GDP data five years into the future, household and nonprofit liabilities, open market paper, and the Fed’s assets. At different stretches of time, just one of those was the single biggest driver of the market and was confirmed with regression analyses.

He isolated each factor in a separate chart, calling them “eras” for the stock market.

From after World War II until the mid-1970s, future GDP outlook explained 90% of the stock market’s move, according to statistical analysis by Barnier.

GDP growth lost its sway on the market in the early 1970s with the rise of credit cards and consumer debt. Household liabilities grew with plastic first, followed by home mortgages, until the real estate crash of the early 1990s. Barnier’s analysis shows debt explained 95% of the entire market’s move during this time.

The period between the mid- to late-1990s until 2000 was, of course, marked by the tech bubble. While stocks took much of the headline, that time also saw heightened activity in the commercial paper market. Startups and young companies sought cash beyond their stratospheric share values to fund their operations. Barnier’s regression analysis shows commercial paper increases could explain as much as 97% of the tech bubble.

Shortly after the tech bubble burst, a housing bubble began, once more in the form of mortgages and other debt. That drove 94% of the market’s move for the first several years of the current century.

As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. During the first half of 2013, the Fed caused the entire market’s growth, he said.
Since the Fed stopped buying bonds in late 2014, the S&P 500 has been batted around in a 16% range and is more or less where it was when the QE came to a close. Investors need to anticipate the next driver, said Barnier.

“Quantitative easing has stopped, but now we're into the interest rate world,” he said. “That means for any investor trying to figure out what to do, step one is starting with a macro strategy.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-caused-93--of-the-entire-stock-market-s-move-since-2008--analysis-194426366.html


Many have remarked upon post corona stock market trends commenting upon how they make no sense. The above article presents a scenario with the potential to explain everything. Market trends over the last few decades fail to make sense if natural market mechanics are the prime moving impetus. If however the majority of trends are attributed to central banks injecting selective liquidity into markets. Suddenly it may all begin to make sense.
2320  Economy / Economics / Re: We need to create a independent mobile device on: August 26, 2020, 11:47:02 AM
Apple just kicked Fortnite off the App Store

Apple says Epic is violating its App Store guidelines by using its own payment system

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/13/21366438/apple-fortnite-ios-app-store-violations-epic-payments


Years and years ago.

Apple originally discontinued support for flash to push their own competing multimedia technology. (What was apple's competing intellectual property at the time btw was it quicktime?)

Microsoft deliberately sabotages OpenGL's performance on windows to better push their own competing technology Direct X.

Apple kicking fortnite off their app store may seem like an isolated incident, an exception. In reality its normalized and more common than most realize.
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