The united states is known for having 25% of all the lawyers in the entire world at certain points in the modern era.  Nationalists have sought to encourage youth to pursue careers in science and engineering rather than law school for decades, knowing the countries "technology advantage" is at stake. Competing nations like japan have a mainstream culture built around science fiction anime. Values and ideals from these genres of storytelling lead to japan's youth embracing careers in tech/science in vaster numbers. Translating to japan enjoying a technological advantage over many of its rivals. (It can also result in a higher percentage of the population devising methods to have sex with robots but we don't have to go there.) There's a school of thought which claims a nation's overall success and standard of living depends upon how effectively it is able to develop & harness the collective intelligence, creativity and resourcefulness of its population. Perhaps that may be a goal worth striving for? |
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As for a solution, the GPU manufacturers should either increase production or raise their prices so that the scalpers can't make money. Scalpers rely on situations when demand is high but supply is low. Centralized markets or not, this doesn't matter to them, they make bots that instabuy GPUs the moment they are available. Just solve the problems with supply, and scalpers won't be a problem. Over the last 5 years, there have been many occasions where thousands of tons of surplus food wound up in landfills. Tons of excess food supply destroyed rather than be distributed to the poor. Or allocated to local food markets where it might decrease food costs. Shipments of aluminum are often delayed to produce artificial scarcity and inflate prices. In this way, shortages of aluminum are created despite there being a large abundance of supply. Increasing GPU production wouldn't cut costs for reasons mentioned above. And many others. As long as the GPU market remained centralized enough for scalpers to retain control. They would be able to consolidate and inflate prices. |
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1/3 New Yorkers want to leave the cityMay 30, 2018 One-third of New Yorkers want to ditch the Big Apple. A study by brokerage and real estate listings hub Redfin found that 34 percent of its New York City users searched for properties outside of the city, Bloomberg reported. It gets worse. Of that 34 percent, most looked at homes in our city’s archrival: Boston. The data, released earlier this month, also shows New Yorkers browsing homes in Miami and Atlanta. It’s a nationwide phenomenon. Given rising prices and limited inventory, wannabe home buyers currently living in expensive cities are looking at secondary markets. Of the 21 percent of San Franciscans searching outside the Bay Area, most are eyeing cheaper Sacramento. Seattle residents are ogling less costly counties in sunny Los Angeles, while Washington, DC, dwellers examine nearby Philadelphia. And while searches don’t reflect actual home purchases or relocations, Redfin says they’re a leading indicator of eventual moves. Redfin senior economist Taylor Marr reported that, in 2015, Bay Area residents were searching outside the city for homes, and by 2016, census data revealed that San Francisco had lost residents. The Big Apple had better brace for a mass exodus. https://nypost.com/2018/05/30/tons-of-new-yorkers-want-to-leave-the-city/ Remember when new york lawmakers took years to finally legalize mixed martial arts in the state? Heavily regulated states like new york move glacially slow on new trends like introducing gambling to the region. I would guess the reason this is being fast tracked involves NY searching for ways to prevent their mass exodus of residents to other states. A trend which began years before the pandemic. There's a famous story about Donald Trump trying to open a casino in florida years ago and being denied As competition between states for residents and tax revenues intensifies. Perhaps we'll see casinos open in other states as well. Wouldn't that be great? |
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These are the rules for the Martingale system I applied:
• If the bet losses, I multiple the stake by 1.5x for the next match.
As you will see in the team results in the 2nd post, you may experience over 10 losses in a row. Martingale assumes the odds of each bet being a 50/50 probability split. Where a lost bet significantly increases chances of the following bet being a winning one. That defines the strategy and motive behind raising the bet stake 1.5x after a loss. You defined one major shortcoming of martingale above in your observation of 10 losses in a row being possible. An alternate strategy could be to reduce bet stake by 1.5x after a loss, while increasing it 1.5x after a win. Based on the concept of wins and losses coming in trends. Rather than 50/50 as martingale assumes. Of course, it could be fair to say stake size isn't as important as overall accuracy. Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process. |
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Are people actually squirreling away that many GPUs? I've been watching Youtube videos about the GPU shortage and none of them have mentioned anything like that. I had assumed the scalpers were just individuals with enough cash to snap up a handful or two of the most popular models and then selling them at jacked up prices on eBay. If there are large-scale operators hoarding GPUs like that, I'd love to read about it.
This is all the result of having a free market, by the way and I'm not sure anything should be done about it except for manufacturers upping the supply and maybe do a pre-order system or something. I know gamers are pissed off because of this, but I'm happy I was able to get my gaming computer that I don't use for gaming that has an RTX 3080 in it! That thing crunches Folding@Home problems like a beast.
... Scalpers sold over 53,000 new Nvidia/AMD cards worth $65 millionMichael Driscoll's update on the state of eBay/StockX scalping continues with a look at the latest graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD. Just over 53,000 Ampere/RDNA 2 products were sold on the platforms, bringing in $65.45 million in sales and just over $16 million in profit. Following on from his examination of Zen 3 scalping earlier this week, Driscoll looked at the turbulent graphics cards market. Nvidia’s RTX 3000 series and AMD’s RX 6000 line have been notoriously difficult to find unless you pay over the odds on reseller sites. https://www.techspot.com/news/88446-scalpers-sold-over-53000-new-nvidiaamd-cards-worth.html These scalpers seem to have deep pockets. Its not a new practice. I seem to remember gaming desktops, laptops and assorted high demand / limited supply markets being bought out and resold on ebay as far back as 10-15 years ago. Mostly during the black friday and christmas holiday season. Not certain how much of an improvement these new GPUs represent over previous generations. If it were possible for consumers to organize a hard boycott of GPU purchases for even a few months. The outcome may not go favorably for GPU scalpers. GPU scalping could be disruptive to the crypto BTC mining industry. The main motive for posting this. |
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So what can consumers do about GPU scalpers killing free market efficiency? One drawback for scalpers centralizing GPU markets are associated storage costs. Storing 51,000+ GPUs in warehouses carries monthly fees. If consumers could organize and boycott GPU purchases. Those units would sit idle racking up significant costs. Suffice it to say, scalpers rely on steady and consistent sales to keep their enterprise profitable. Their ideal scenario is one of quick turnaround where they aren't forced to hold & store GPUs long term, where depreciation might come into play. Another option to deter GPU scalping is for owners of GPUs to sell their units at lower prices than normal. Collectively, it could force the average cost of market prices below a threshold where GPU scalping can be profitable. This is similar if not identical to an old aggressive tactic called dumping. Which some say japan utilized to destroy US market share in the television manufacturing industry around the 1980s. Scalpers rely on market centralization. The creation of additional decentralized markets for buying and selling GPUs, which they do not influence or control is yet another option. I wouldn't necessarily recommend buying GPUs on craigslist. But having more available markets, could provide us with more options and opportunities. Which could make consumers less reliant upon centralized markets dominated by scalping practices. Ok I think I covered the most obvious options with a potential for curbing GPU scalping and market inefficiency. Are there others I missed? Please, share.  Part 1 in case anyone missed it is here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5323513.0.... |
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Nearly all of my logins over the years have been from my laptop at home. This past weekend I logged in to blockchain.info on my phone (updated google pixel phone) via the chrome browser. Many chrome browser extensions are compromised. Many python libraries (upon which chrome extensions are built) contain malicious code. One of your browser extensions could have stolen your blockchain session cookie and forwarded it to an attacker, who utilized it to hijack your session login credentials and swipe your coins. That seems like the easiest method for an attacker to pull that off. Many phones are rumored to contain built in backdoors but that would be harder and more tedious and so perhaps less likely. Python libraries could be one of the most heavily exploited attack vectors utilized at the moment. Which is strange as many are pushing python to be used for everything, almost as if they're unaware of how unstable and riddled with exploits it has become. Almost $5k lost.  That's a good chunk of change. Sorry. Hope you can recover it somehow. |
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Bitcoin's value may have been sustainable near its ATH in 2017. Until market fears related to bitfinex/tether caused it to plummet. Fast forward to 2021. Many expect history to repeat itself like it did in 2017 with a negative price correction. But is that scenario likely in the absence of bitfinex/tether fears to fuel a sell off? Circumstances have shifted significantly over the last 4 years. The entire world has been turned upside down thanks to the pandemic and volatile political situation.
In 2017 most would have laughed if someone said hyperinflation or deficits were real concerns. Today in 2021 people are taking it more seriously. They're trying harder to protect their wealth from devaluation/hyperinflation. Traders are also learning lessons about trading crypto and may not fall for another bitfinex/tether scandal without better evidence.
It is possible bitcoin's price will be sustained. But I can't claim to be a fortune teller and would look for an easier & more predictable call to make if I was thinking about investing.
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Contrary to what you are claiming, Martin Shkreli exposed an inefficiency in the market by being able to sell the drug at 4000x. He did not create the inefficiency. Scalping is a direct result of a market's inefficiency. Martin Shkreli has a lawsuit filed against him for what some are calling a drug monopoly. What he and scalpers do could be labeled consolidation and centralization of markets. Centralization versus decentralization. Consolidation and centralization of markets is very common today. It is where much of our systemic inefficiency and abuse stems from. I really though the GPU for mining issue would be solved by the recent halving making it unprofitable for GPU mining yet the issue still stands maybe because the new 3000 series makes it possible for them to go higher than breaking even. The greater the price of bitcoin, the more profitable mining becomes. A jump from 10k to 50k makes mining 5x more profitable. That's without factoring in GPU/ASIC gains from moore's law which could consistently make mining more profitable over time. |
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a lot of tasks go for six or seven cents Nice find. Should mention this microlancer format was originally pioneered by amazon's mechanical turk platform. https://www.mturk.com/Mturk remains the largest existing platform with the most opportunities, support and jobs posted. |
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Economists have a tendency to overgeneralize free markets as providing customers with ideal efficiency in producing and dispensing goods and services. The past 20 years have seemed hellbent on putting notions of free market efficiency through rigorous stress tests. In 2015 Martin Shkreli's investment group bought out existing stockpiles of the HIV drug daraprin. Having cornered the market they resold the drug at 4,000 times its previous value. One example of inefficiency present in free markets. In 2021 GPU scalpers (wallstreet investment groups?) following in Martin Shkreli's footsteps bought out more than 53,000 new GPU units, to corner the market & resell at higher prices on ebay/stockx.  Image source: https://www.techspot.com/news/88446-scalpers-sold-over-53000-new-nvidiaamd-cards-worth.html Market inefficiencies created by scalpers (resellers) negatively impact the bottom line of gamers and GPU miners. While practices such as scalping concert tickets is illegal in some US states. There isn't a federal mandate which regulates broadscale scalping practices that destroy market efficiency. Dare I say we might need one in this day and age. In the absence of regulation, what options are available. |
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The famous Mona Lisa by Leonardo Da Vinci was insured for $100 million in 1962. It set a guinness world record for the most expensive insurance policy ever put on a painting. Highest insurance valuation for a paintingThe highest known insurance valuation for a painting is $100million (£53.55 million) assessed for the move of The Mona Lisa (La Gioconda) by Leonardo da Vinci (1452–1519, Italy) from the Louvre in Paris, France, to Washington, DC, USA and then New York City, New York, USA for a special exhibition 14 December 1962 to 12 Mar 1963. https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/highest-insurance-valuation-for-a-painting ... Last year a self portrait painting by Rembrandt sold for $18.7 million. Imagine NFTs selling at significantly higher prices than famous paintings and art. |
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I'm skeptical as to whether this news is real. If anyone remembers the "buy, buy, buy!" and "sell, sell, sell!" host of Cramer's Mad Money. Admission of market manipulationIn a December 2006 interview, Cramer described activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices—some of debatable legality and others illegal. He described how he could push stocks higher or lower with as little as $5 million in capital when he was running his hedge fund. Cramer said, "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund ... When I was positioned short—meaning I needed it down—I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures." He also encouraged hedge funds to engage in this type of activity because it is "a very quick way to make money."[33] Cramer stated that everything he did was legal, but that illegal activity is common in the hedge fund industry as well. He also stated that some hedge fund managers spread false rumors to drive a stock down: "What's important when you are in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."[34] Cramer described a variety of tactics that hedge fund managers use to affect a stock's price. Cramer said that one strategy to keep a stock price down is to spread false rumors to reporters he described as "the Pisanis of the world," in reference to CNBC correspondent Bob Pisani, who Cramer insinuated was able to be manipulated, saying "You have to use these guys." He also discussed giving information to "the bozo reporter from The Wall Street Journal" to get an article published.[35][36] Cramer said this practice, although illegal, is easy to do "because the SEC doesn't understand it."[37] During the interview Cramer referred to himself as a "banking-class hero."[38] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer#Admission_of_market_manipulation Markets have always been influenced by traders and hedge fund managers spreading false rumors to reporters(bolded above). I wouldn't be surprised to learn million dollar purchases of NFTs were rumors accidentally reported as legitimate news. In an effort to manipulate markets and create a bubble (with profiteering opportunities) in crypto related assets. Does anyone remember bitfinex/tether (USDT) accusations from 2017 where it was claimed stablecoins were utilized to fraudulently manipulate crypto markets, pushing bitcoin to ATHs? False rumors are published as real news sometimes, mistakes are made. It could be more common than we realize. |
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Thieves in Turkey switched painted paving stones for copper Commodities trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. struck a deal last summer to buy $36 million of copper from a Turkish supplier. But when the cargoes started arriving in China, all it found were containers full of painted rocks. The saga unfolds like a gangland thriller, with the Swiss trading house saying it’s been the victim of cargo fraud. Before its journey from a port near Istanbul to China even began, about 6,000 tons of blister copper in more than 300 containers were switched with jagged paving stones, spray-painted to resemble the semi-refined metal. The bizarre case highlights commodity traders’ vulnerability to fraud, even when security and inspection controls are in place. In 2014 and 2015, Mercuria took provisions to cover potential losses after metal contained in a warehouse in the Chinese port of Qingdao was seized by authorities as part of fraud investigation. Turkish police took 13 people into custody in relation to the faux-copper scheme. Mercuria, one of the five-biggest independent oil traders in the world, is seeking redress in both Turkish courts and a U.K. arbitration case against the copper supplier, Bietsan. It’s also filed a formal criminal complaint with Turkish police and prosecutors alleging cargo substitution and insurance fraud, leaving the authorities to determine who’s responsible. Several calls to Bietsan’s offices in Tekirdag went unanswered. “Suspects have been taken under custody who are thought to be involved in the various parts of this organized crime against Mercuria,” the Geneva-based Mercuria said in a written statement in which it thanked the Istanbul Financial Crimes Department. The story was pieced together from legal documents, interviews and local media reports. Copper Switched Last June, Mercuria agreed to buy copper from Bietsan, a Turkish supplier it had done business with before, according to Sinan Borovali, the trading house’s lawyer in Turkey. It appears that copper was initially loaded into the first shipment of containers, before being surveyed by an inspection company. Seals used to prevent fraud were then affixed to the containers. But under the cover of darkness, it is alleged the containers were opened and the copper replaced with paving stones, Borovali of Istanbul law firm KYB said in an interview. The fraudsters switched between fake and real container seals in an effort to avoid detection. As ships left Marport terminal in the port of Ambarli every few days, the same thing happened: the copper was secretly unloaded at night and replaced with painted rocks. “This was how they did it,” Borovali said. With the vessels at sea, Mercuria paid $36 million in five installments with the last payment made on Aug. 20, 2020, according to documents provided by the commodity trader to Turkish investigators. The fraud wasn’t discovered until the ships began arriving in the Chinese port of Lianyungang later that month. By then, all eight vessels were en route to China. Organized Crime “There has been a criminal investigation petition by the buyer against the seller and two intermediaries,” Turkish police said in a statement. “It’s been determined that the incident is the outcome of fraud perpetrated in an organized manner.” Normally, in such cases of non-delivery a trading house could make a claim against a cargo’s insurance policy. But Mercuria found that just one out of seven contracts used by the Turkish company to insure the cargo was real. The rest had been forged. The 13 suspected fraudsters were taken into custody this month in a series of police raids. Some have since been allowed to leave custody and placed under house arrest, according to local newswire reports. More hearings on the case are expected from this week. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Trader-Buys-36-Million-of-Copper-and-Gets-16011989.php.... The long history of precious metals markets equate commodities like gold with stability and safety. "Just buy gold, you'll be safe," is consensus accepted advice. But has the time finally come to question those long held views? In an era where $36 million in copper commodities are hijacked and lost. Reliability of commodity trading/shipping appears on a steep decline. Could an outlier precedent could be emerging where commodities like gold no longer represent the safe havens they once did? Experts and analysts claim gold and silver are undervalued. But did they remember to price in the cost of counterfeit gold and silver bars flooding markets. Cases like these where even insurance that is supposed to protect commodity shipments from loss turn out to be forged and fraudulent. If negative trends like these continue, could a case be emerging for bitcoin being a better inflation protected asset than gold. On the basis of commodity trading, shipping and insurance not the reliable and wholesome industries they used to be. |
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Bitcoin and monetary policy are too political/polarized for independent & unbiased science to prevail. Majority views published on cryptocurrencies are false narratives revolving around it being a safe haven for criminals and money launderers. False content about cryptocurrencies having large carbon footprints and being bad for the environment. These claims have been disproven numerous times over the years. Its easy to find news on investigations proving banks are the biggest launderers of capital. Bitcoin mining does not necessarily have a large carbon footprint due to it being majority powered by surplus and renewable forms of green energy. The closest thing to legitimate research published on crypto I remember reading, is the following excerpt from apple co founder Steve Wozniak. MONEY20/20: WOZNIAK THINKS BITCOIN IS BETTER THAN GOLDWozniak feels a currency is more “stable” when it cannot be diluted and, while Bitcoin has a fixed future supply (only 21 million bitcoins will ever be mined), the same cannot be said about government-backed fiat currencies. “There is a certain finite amount of bitcoin that can ever exist,” Wozniak said in explaining that the U.S. government could wind up printing more dollars for political reasons. He described the U.S. dollar as “kind of phony” in that sense, while describing Bitcoin as more “genuine and real.” Similarly, he said, gold does not necessarily have a fixed supply either, because humans will continue to find more efficient ways to dig it out of the earth. “Gold gets mined and mined and mined,” Wozniak said. “Maybe there’s a finite amount of gold in the world, but Bitcoin is even more mathematical and regulated and nobody can change mathematics.” https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/money2020-wozniak-thinks-bitcoin-better-gold .... Write ups detailing the long history of fiat/paper money inevitably returning to its "intrinsic value" of zero are also some of the best published work on crypto imo: https://kinesis.money/case-studies/paper-money-eventually-returns-to-its-intrinsic-value-zero/ |
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 Greece, venezuela, turkey and other nations which might be described as being on the brink of ruin. Follow similar policy as standard procedure. Venezuela announced their own cryptocurrency: the petro, with perhaps identical intent. They may never have intended to follow through on their bold proposal to create their own cryptocurrency. It may simply have been an announcement made to give people hope. Greece announced many industrial solar power projects over the past decade. Perhaps to give people hope that the economy and job situation will improve. That things would change. I can't say I know much about nicaragua or its President. Could it be said that a predictable trend where leaders make bold proposals to give people false hope is forming? Might it be fair to say leaders of the world appear to follow the same "how to be a leader in 21 easy steps, for dummies" book. |
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Interesting topic. I think macau offers significantly larger maximum betting limits in contrast to vegas. There was a story in the news years back where Vegas Dave bet $1 million dollars on Miesha Tate to defeat Amanda Nunes at UFC 200 back in 2016. Some said the story was fake -- vegas doesn't accept million dollars bets on MMA/UFC. It was later claimed the million dollar bet was made in macau, which appears to offer million dollar bet limits in some cases. Many sportsbooks in vegas might only accept a $2k to $10k maximum bet on MMA/UFC events. Macau offering $1 million dollar betting limits could imply their profits scale upwards proportionately. As some said, macau is less regulated and taxed in contrast to vegas, which would make it easier for them to offer extended betting $ limits. To sustain catering to a more wealthy and upscale clientale with larger bankrolls of money to burn. |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hZU7qska34China Uncensored
1.56M subscribers
China declares war on Bitcoin. Inner Mongolia, where a huge amount of bitcoin mining occurs, will be banning it. But the Bitcoin news is part of a broader attempt by the Chinese Communist Party to create a national digital currency that the Party controls. .... China claims it must "crackdown" on bitcoin to save the environment and the planet. Given that a high percentage of cryptocurrency (pow) mining is powered through hydroelectric and green energy. The cost of which helps fund the expansion and development of cleaner non fossil fuel based plants around the world. Perhaps we can propose an alternative if china is serious about fighting climate change and being Greta Thunberg's proud poster boy. Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside ChinaCiting data gleaned from the world’s biggest developers of coal-fired power plants, Urgewald found that of all the new coal generation expected to go online over the next decade, Chinese companies will build nearly half of it. Specifically, that means 700 new coal plants, with most to be built in China, and about a fifth outside the country, according to figures provided by Urgewald and reported by the New York Times: SIGN UP FOR THE ENERGY DIGEST Overall, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, said Urgewald, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 per cent. The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord. Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth’s temperatures to rise. https://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/ China is known for having 14 out of the top 30 most polluted cities on the planet due to its heavy reliance on coal. In some places the air pollution is so bad, it is claimed simply living and breathing the air is like smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. I am curious to know what peoples thoughts on these topics are. Could the environment better be protected by china replacing its 700 planned coal power plants with cleaner options. China is emerging as a hub for solar panel and windmill manufacturing. It is well suited to leverage EV vehicles due to the abundance of rare earth minerals within china's own borders. Its policy of pursuing coal energy in the face of cleaner and more affordable power options remains an enigma to me. Fossil fuel based power is heavily criticized and attacked by the media in the west. While in the east it is embraced with bold plans in motion to extend the scale of coal based operations. How can this discrepansy be explained. What are the motives and reasons behind it.
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During World War II the majority of the civilized world was bombed back to the stone age. With the exception of two nations: russia and the united states. This set the stage for the remaining economically viable states, USSR and USA, profiting handsomely from european and asian reconstruction efforts. Which would later culminate in the space race and cold war.
It is worth mentioning european and asian nations being recipients of reconstruction loans gave both soviets and americans considerable leverage. A neglected observation which applies to the current day world. Deficits have creditors and debtors. Who they are and why it matters.
There are many observations and illustrations which could be drawn concerning the relationship between the US and china. Facets of capitalism were adopted to avoid the economic stagnation and eventual self destruction which characterized the soviet union. But it could be accurate to say china still suffers from circumstances identical to that which plagued the soviet union due to the CCP's insistence on owning and controlling everything within china's borders. Negative sentiments towards bitcoin from china's leaders could be one prime example of it. China embracing bitcoin could create jobs and boost the countries economy. Yet chinese leaders prioritize control over success, which could be one reason they might never surpass the united states.
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If a random in a restaurant coughed or sneezed on patrons and their meals, people would be offended. But if they coughed/sneezed into their hands or a napkin it would be deemed less offensive, if not socially acceptable. This seems to imply masks could be effective. This pandemic is a golden opportunity to learn and apply science. Is the lack of scientific commentary and disclosure forthcoming on topics like masks and vaccines strange?
I agree with rolling back lockdowns on business. The virus is said to transmit from people to local animals and back again. Which could allow it to persist for many years. It could become entire normalized like the flu with sufficient longevity that business lockdowns would never eliminate it. It may be pointless to try.
Following in the footsteps of sweden's "corona virus herd immunity" plan by abolishing mask mandates seems premature. But opening businesses could be an essential service in and of itself.
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