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2241  Economy / Economics / Re: Would you like to become a co-owner of a world bank? on: November 11, 2020, 11:59:18 PM
Theoretically there are competing currencies, as there are different countries with different currencies.



Economies and currencies fall under the control of central banking networks. The united states has the federal reserve. Venezuela has their own central bank. There are networks of them in every country. They communicate and cooperate to determine economic and financial policy on a global scale. Central banks in europe and asia normally follow policies identical to central banks in north and south america. Moving from one country to another isn't an escape. Its more of the same.

Independent currencies which fall outside central bank jurisdiction could be what is needed to raise standards.

I'm no fan of facebook or Mark Zuckenberg. But have to admit his libra coin had the potential to introduce needed competition into global currency markets.
2242  Economy / Economics / Re: The Destruction Of The Euro on: November 10, 2020, 11:58:05 PM
Unforuntaely there is no real way of fixing it. The EU is flawed from the start, the systems don't work and most importantly the system can't correct itself, because you need a 100% of the votes to change any EU treaties. And that is never going to happen, the countries are too divided to actually work together in harmony. The target 2 balances will likely never be solved, it's just part of the European transfer union.

....


More effort could be made to reform debt in nations like greece which threaten to pull other EU members into bankruptcy with it. Greece could temporarily be removed from the EU until it is able to fix its own negative economic conditions. If the UK can unite enough for #brexit to succeed. Perhaps there is hope for real reform.

One of the biggest issues appears to be the media blackout accompanying problems with the EU. All europeans hear is negative news on america. They seem to not realize they face many of the same issues america struggles with. If not for the federal reserve bailing out european banks, the EU could have ended years ago.

It might be fair to say problems the EU and america face are identical to problems in venezuela. There are clear cut solutions for fixing everything. But somehow those options are never put on the table for consideration.
2243  Economy / Economics / Re: Would you like to become a co-owner of a world bank? on: November 10, 2020, 11:44:57 PM
It might be fair to say governments of the world hold monopolies over fiat currency. Which could be improved by introducing free market competition to the equation. The venezuelan bolivar and zimbabwe dollar could be better managed, and appreciate in value. If there were competing currencies incentivizing regulators to do a better job.

Many mistakenly classify bitcoin and crypto as attacks or attempts to subvert government authority. The motives of Satoshi and crypto developers are not negative. They merely offer alternative options with the potential to grant people more opportunities in life and more freedom.

If big tech monopolies like facebook and google are negative trends. Perhaps government run monopolies of fiat may be categorized similarly. In which case bitcoin and crypto could represent progress and an improvement over traditional modes of banking and finance.
2244  Other / Off-topic / Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity on: November 09, 2020, 11:06:50 PM
Its been said the cost to transport one kilogram of cargo into orbit, is so overwhelmingly expensive. If the moon were composed of pure gold. It would cost more to mine and transport gold from the moon, than the gold would be worth. That rule of thumb is pre Elon Musk, pre Space X. But still holds true. Claims of asteroids with "quadrillion" size net worths of rare minerals and metals trend towards marketing hype, with cost to extract and transport not factored in.

NASA says here it costs $10,000 to launch 1 pound (0.45 kilograms) of payload into orbit:  https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html

It could be more cost effective to salvage and repurpose space debris. Than it is to build new structures on the ground and blast them into space.
2245  Economy / Economics / Re: Biden and Cryoto on: November 09, 2020, 10:34:42 PM
Trump or Biden may not be very relevent as far as crypto goes. US Presidents traditionally appoint those with backgrounds in banking to key posts determining financial and economic policy. Some called Trump a sellout in 2016, after he appointed bankers to treasury secretary posts, the same as Obama did. Trump has often proclaimed his intent to drain the swamp. While following some protocols which are endemic to the swamp. In 2008 there were questions raised about then treasury secretary Henry Paulson having received a $40+ million dollar bonus as former acting CEO of goldman sachs. Some questioned whether there could be a conflict of interest present with past bank CEOs who received large bonuses, serving in key government positions of US economic and financial policy. All of this has seemingly become culturally normalized. No one seems to question it any longer.

Suffice it to say that there were no large deviations or discrepansies which contrasted financial and economic policy in comparing Trump's administration to Obama's. Not much contrast aside from Trump era tax cuts and a few other policies. Obama made an attempt to legislate significant financial reform on banks early in his 1st term. Which resulted in democrat candidates running for office having their campaign funding cut. This dearth in funding allowed republicans to retake the senate or house. Or both. I don't remember 100%. That historical precedent could prevent any elected US President from making a real effort to pass financial reform, the way Obama tried.
2246  Economy / Economics / Re: The source of bitcoin's current skyward trend was foreshadowed on: November 09, 2020, 04:57:43 AM
I understand the claim that USDT is a leading indicator for bitcoin price, but I'm having trouble understanding why this is supposed to be. Without a rationale explanation for this, it's just a correlation like all the other correlations that are just a coincidence.  Can anyone explain it like I'm 5 why USDT is supposed to foretell btc price movements?





One concern in buying and selling bitcoin is volatility. Stablecoins like tether overcome this to a degree by pegging their value to the US dollar. Those who use tether to buy bitcoin can be confident their buying power will not diminish over time.

The red line in the chart above represents tether supply(other line is BTC price movement). It represents how much tether people are buying. As the only thing tether can be used for is buying bitcoin. High demand of tether, translates directly to high demand for buying bitcoin. The big increase over september 2020: all of the tether bought would be exchanged for btc at some point. This elevated demand, would likely cause bitcoin's value to appreciate.

The only real question was when the exchange would be made.

AFAIK anyway. Feel free to disagree and correct if needed.  Smiley  I'm here to learn just like everyone else.
2247  Economy / Economics / Re: The Destruction Of The Euro on: November 06, 2020, 11:20:16 PM
I hope people realize. My motive for posting these doom and gloom OP articles.

Is to prevent unnecessary human suffering.

If the eurozone is broken, I would like people to acknowledge and fix it.

To prevent tragedies like the great depression and 2008 economic crisis from occurring again.

I hope that makes sense.
2248  Economy / Economics / The source of bitcoin's current skyward trend was foreshadowed on: November 06, 2020, 10:59:12 PM
Quote
A 50% INCREASE IN TETHER SUPPLY POINTS TO ANOTHER BITCOIN RALLY: ANALYST

OCT 13, 2020

Bitcoin should brace for another upside move as a large Tether supply waits to enter its market, according to TradingShot.

The independent market analysis firm said that the USDT supply increased by more than 50 percent since August 2020. While it may have fueled the 18 percent price rebound in the Bitcoin market a month later, its actual impact on the cryptocurrency’s spot rate remains undiscovered.

Quote
“There has been a significant increase in crypto buying power, and such power has not been reflected yet on the price actions,” noted TradingShot.



Historically, Tether’s USDT serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin’s price. In November 2018, for instance, the BTC/USD exchange rate fell 46 percent. The move appeared almost six weeks after USDT experienced a 44 percent plunge in its supply. Also, in May 2019, the number of USDT tokens in circulation shot up by 30 percent.

It followed BTC/USD surging from $5,700 to $11,350.

In the said instances, Bitcoin laggingly tailed the USDT market cap. TradingShot noted the same in the cryptocurrency’s current upside move that came almost a month after the USDT supply grew
.

BITCOIN ACCUMULATION CONTINUES

Other on-chain indicators behaved as tailwinds for the ongoing Bitcoin price rally. TradingShot highlighted strong accumulation sentiments in the last few weeks despite BTC/USD’s correction from $12K to $10K.

Quote
“Price generally goes into a bullish trend on rising on-chain smart money accumulation,” the firm wrote. “In Nov 2018, the $6k level experienced smart money accumulation, and the price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, the price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x.”



Bitcoin market outlook, as presented by TradingShot. Source: TradingView.com

MINERS

A similar accumulation sentiment also grew higher among the miners – a section responsible for running the Bitcoin’s decentralized network, for which they receive newly minted bitcoin tokens. Typically, miners sell a good portion of their rewards to pay for their operational costs.

When their higher Ask price matches the Bid, it means that the market is willing to pay more to accumulate Bitcoin. – and vice versa. TradingShot noted that investors are buying Bitcoin en masse, which is why it has faced massive sell-offs without hurting its bullish bias.

“If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down,” the firm added. “For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTCmay recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point.”

With the USDT market cap higher and an inflationary outlook in the future, Bitcoin demand expects to grow among mainstream investors.

https://bitcoinist.com/a-50-increase-in-tether-supply-points-to-another-bitcoin-rally-analyst/


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This was published around 3 weeks ago and predicts a big bitcoin up trend sustained by a 50% increase in tether supply. Tether may be emerging as one of the best leading indicators for predicting future bitcoin price moves. The relationship between bitcoin and tether has been acknowledged many times in the past. With some conspiracy theorists going so far as to claim tether is a conspiracy to manipulate the value of btc.
2249  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there a market for crypto based client side data mining on: November 04, 2020, 12:13:36 AM
It could also lead to exit scams and bloodbaths... I think current law tries to prevent people giving much in the way of what they should invest in for this exact reason...

There's potential for some low interest ideas to be picked up this way but the more people you get over to a high interest scheme you find, the less you also gain in interest too afaik.



Maybe I didn't do a good job explaining OP.

Imagine if someone found a way to eat delicious and healthy food for 1 month that costs $150. Imagine if you could view all their shopping transactions in a public ledger verified via blockchain to see what type of food they bought, where they bought it and other details to replicate their success.

Imagine if an investor had an account balance of $500 in october 2020. And found a way to triple their money so their account balance is $1,500 in november 2020. Imagine if you could view all their buy and sell orders to see what their investment and trading strategy was to learn from it.

Imagine if you could see all the financial transactions of someone who owns a multi million dollar business or drives lambo. Maybe there would be interesting information present some could apply to their own lives.

The client and consumer side doesn't share information. It is possible that there are valuable life lessons and information there some might be willing to share. That would help people to adopt better financial and investment habits. It is also possible that crypto with open ledgers and blockchains could be uniquely qualified to be a platform suited for this role.
2250  Economy / Economics / Is there a market for crypto based client side data mining on: November 03, 2020, 11:56:02 PM
Exposition: we've all heard of google, facebook and other tech giants collecting and selling end user data. There have been many eras in human history. Bronze, iron and industrial ages. Some refer to the current era as an information age. An era where information and data can be as valuable and coveted as bronze, industrialization or gold in previous eras. Retailers and big business utilize collected data to build better businesses and gain advantages over business rivals and consumers.

Question: could there be a market for crypto currencies which focus on client side data mining, which work to the benefit and advantage of consumers. A market which might be undervalued and neglected atm.

Implementation: a working model of this could be defined by a blockchain and social media platform built around sharing and validating financial data in the form of purchases, investments and transactions inside of a public ledger. Sharing of client side information could help consumers to find the best investments, sales and deals. With the best information sharers being rewarded with crypto.

Marketing pitch:  imagine if you could see every financial transaction and investment move made by Warren Buffett. Imagine if all of that data were shared and verified by a blockchain on a volunteer basis. In theory it could help consumers to learn better spending and saving habits. Perhaps manage their finances more like the pros. Could it help consumers to coordinate and cooperate to find better business deals and spending habits. Which could nullify advantages big tech and big business have with data mining schemes.

Perhaps this wouldn't be a bad idea and might be something people would be interested in?    Smiley

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2251  Economy / Economics / Re: Better Days ahead for the economy of developing countries in Africa on: November 03, 2020, 11:39:08 PM
Many are still holding their breath, waiting for politicians to fix all their problems, deliver them from their sins and save them. The harsh reality is, many politicians don't care about those they represent or serving the public good. They only care about money.
Real and lasting positive change seldom comes from the top. It has to come from the bottom, at a grassroots level. From the average and the poor. They can learn to communicate, educate themselves and work together. This gives them real collective bargaining and leverage. Which they can utilize to improve circumstances and elevate their standard of living.

Such a system as democracy was created by previous generations to choose politicians whose professional duty is to solve all problems and save sins and protect the population Wink You can engage in beautiful chatter as much as you want but if you are engaged in the creation of structures parallel to the state, then this will not lead to anything good in the end. Amateur is a great thing but professionals should do it better because it is their job.




....

Could it be fair to say professionals and politicians work for those who pay them? Who pays them is neither you nor I.

Some may feel professionals or politicians owe them something. But at the end of the day, we're not the ones who pay their salaries or put food on their table. And so they do not owe their allegiance or loyalty to us. No matter what theories of how the world should work say.

Many politicians have a net worth greater than $100 million dollars. That is a remarkable sum of money for this day and age. There is a question of how it happens consistently without many seeming to acknowledge it.
2252  Economy / Economics / The Destruction Of The Euro on: October 30, 2020, 10:02:52 PM
Quote
The Eurozone is bust. The deterioration of TARGET2 imbalances have been hardly noticed, but in recent months it has been alarming. Despite official denials over the years that it is a matter of concern, it is increasingly obvious that the national banks of Italy, Spain and other nations with increasing bad debts are hiding them within the TARGET2 system. The first wave of Covid-19, which is leading to bankruptcies throughout the Eurozone, is now being followed by a second wave, which will almost certainly take out a number of important banks, in which case the cross-border euro system will implode.


Introduction

If ever there was a political construct the unstated objective of which is to enslave its population, it is the European Union. Its opportunity stems from national governments which, with the exception of Germany and a few other northern states, had driven or were on the way to driving their failed states into the ground. The EU’s objectives were to support the policies of failure by corralling the accumulated wealth of the more successful nations to fund the failures in a socialistic doubling-down, and to accelerate the policies of failure to ensure that all power resides in the hands of statist looters in Brussels.

It is Ayn Rand’s vision of the socialising state as looter in action. All of surviving big business is aligned with it: those who refused to play the game have disappeared. Senior executives with extensive lobbying budgets are no longer at the beck and call of contentious consumers and have hollowed out their smaller competitors. They have opted for the easier non-contentious life of seeking favours of the looters in Brussels, enjoying the champagne and foie gras, the partying with the movers and shakers, and the protection they bribe for their businesses

It is a corrupt super-state that evolved out of American post-war policy — the child of the American Committee of United Europe. Funded and staffed by the CIA in 1948, the committee’s objectives were to ensure the European countries bought into a US-controlled NATO, in the name of stopping Stalin’s westwards expansion from the post-war boundaries. This was the official story, but it is notable how it formed a template for subsequent American control of other foreign states. It is the action of the jewel wasp that turns a cockroach into a zombie, so that its larva can subsequently feed off it.

This European cockroach is now in the final stages of its zombified existence. In Brussels they don’t realise it, but they are partying into the dawn of the next world, and they will have nowhere left to go. Outside of the Brussels hothouse and EU capitals it is hard to discern any support for a failing political system, beyond simply keeping the show on the road. The German population grumbles about lending their money to economic failures, but like any creditor deep in the hole they will remain blind to the deeper systemic problem for fear of its collapse. At the other extreme are the Greek socialists who claim Germany still owes them for their brutality and destruction seventy-five years ago. It is a Faustian pact between creditors and debtors to ignore the reality of their respective positions. It is the method of imperialism; but instead of being applied to other nations, Brussels applies imperial suppression to its own member states. And now that they been hollowed out, there is nothing left to sustain Brussels.

This is the destination they have arrived at today. Brussels and its European Parliament are nearing the end of their ridiculously expensive and pointless pig-on-pork socialising destruction. Not only have the panjandrums no one left to rob, nowhere left to go, but they have bankrupted a whole continent. Surely, the robbing of the rich and giving to the poor is close to its end. The creditors and debtors have nothing material left — money in everyone’s balance sheet will be written off through a monetary and economic collapse. It is the process of it and the destination we must analyse.

The Eurozone’s banking system is a heartbeat from collapse, as will become evident in this article. There are two basic elements involved. At the bottom there are the commercial banks with rapidly escalating non-performing loans, a phrase which hides the truth, that they are irretrievable bad debts. At the top is the Eurozone-wide settlement system, TARGET2, which is increasingly used to hide the bad debts accumulating at national levels.

Before we look at the position of the commercial banks, in order to understand how toxic the Eurozone has become we will start by exposing the dangers hidden in the settlement system.

TARGET2 — chickens are coming home to roost
The imbalances between the ECB and the national central banks in the TARGET2 Eurozone settlement system are indicative of the current situation.



Germany (light blue) is now “owed” €1.15 trillion, an amount that has escalated by 27% between January and September. At the same time, the greatest debtors, Italy, Spain and the ECB itself have increased their combined debts by €275bn to €1.3 trillion (before September’s additional deterioration for Spain and the ECB are reported — only figures up to August for them are currently available). But the most rapid deterioration for its size is in Greece’s negative balance, increasing by €45.6bn between January and August.

Is the Bundesbank worried by the increasing quantities of euros owed to it in a system that was always intended to roughly balance? Certainly. Will it publicly complain, or privately demand they be corrected? Almost certainly not. For statist systems such as the EU depend entirely on total obedience towards a common objective. All dissenters are punished, in this case by the waves of destruction that would be unleashed by any state refusing to continue to support the PIGS. TARGET2 is a devil’s pact which is in no one’s interest to break.

The imbalances are all guaranteed by the ECB. In theory, they shouldn’t exist. They partially reflect accumulating trade imbalances between member states without the balancing payment flows the other way. Additionally, imbalances arise when the ECB instructs a regional central bank to purchase bonds issued by its government and other local corporate entities. As the imbalances between national banks grew, the ECB has stopped paying for some of its bond purchases, leading to a TARGET2 deficit of €297bn at the ECB. The corresponding credits conceal the true scale of the deficits on the books of the PIGS national central banks. For example, to the extent of the ECB’s unpaid purchases of Italian debt, the Bank of Italy owes more to the other regional banks than the €546bn headline amount suggests.

Inside the workings of TARGET2
The way TARGET2 works, in theory anyway, is as follows. A German manufacturer sells goods to an Italian business. The Italian business pays by bank transfer drawn on its Italian bank via the Italian central bank through the Target2 system, crediting the German manufacturer’s German bank through Germany’s central bank.

The balance was restored by trade deficits, in Italy, for example, being offset by capital inflows as residents elsewhere in the eurozone bought Italian bonds, other investments in Italy and the tourist trade collected net cash revenues.  As can be seen from the chart, before 2008 this was generally true. Part of the problem is down to the failure of private sector investment flows to recycle trade-related payments.

Then there is the question of “capital flight”, which is not capital flight as such. The problem is not that residents in Italy and Spain are opening bank accounts in Germany and transferring their deposits from domestic banks. It is that the national central banks which are heavily exposed to potentially bad loans in their domestic economy know that their losses, if materialised in a general banking crisis, will end up being shared throughout the central bank system, according to their capital keys if they are transferred into the TARGET2 settlement system.

If one national central bank runs a Target2 deficit with the other central banks, it is almost certainly because it has loaned money on a net basis to its commercial banks to cover payment transfers, instead of progressing them through the settlement system. Those loans appear as an asset on the national central bank’s balance sheet, which is offset by a liability to the ECB’s Eurosystem through Target2. But under the rules, if something goes wrong with the TARGET2 system, the costs are shared out by the ECB on the pre-set capital key formula.

It is therefore in the interest of a national central bank to run a greater deficit in relation to its capital key by supporting the insolvent banks in its jurisdiction. The capital key relates to the national central banks’ equity ownership in the ECB, which for Germany, for example, is 26.38% of the euro-area national banks’ capital keys.[ii] If TARGET2 collapsed, the Bundesbank, to the extent the bad debts in the Eurosystem are shared, would lose the trillion plus euros owed to it by the other national central banks, and instead have to pay up to €400bn of the net losses, based on current imbalances.

To understand how and why the problem arises, we must go back to the earlier European banking crisis following Lehman, which has informed national regulatory practices. If the national banking regulator deems loans to be non-performing, the losses would become a national problem. Alternatively, if the regulator deems them to be performing, they are eligible for the national central bank’s refinancing operations. A commercial bank can then use the questionable loans as collateral, borrowing from the national central bank, which spreads the loan risk with all the other national central banks in accordance with their capital keys. Insolvent loans are thereby removed from the PIGS’ national banking systems and dumped on the Eurosystem.

In Italy’s case, the very high level of non-performing loans peaked at 17.1% in September 2015 but by mid-2019 had been reduced to 6.9%. Given the incentives for the regulator to deflect the non-performing loan problem from the domestic economy into the Eurosystem, it would be a miracle if any of the reduction in NPLs is genuine. And with all the covid-19 lockdowns, Italian NPLs will be soaring again.

In the member states with negative TARGET2 balances such as Italy there have been trends to liquidity problems for legacy industries, rendering them insolvent. With the banking regulator incentivised to remove the problem from the domestic economy, loans to these insolvent companies have been continually rolled over and increased. The consequence is that new businesses have been starved of bank credit, because bank credit in the member nation’s banks is increasingly tied up supporting the government and businesses that should have gone to the wall long ago. The added pressure on failing Italian businesses from covid-19 is now being reflected in the Bank of Italy’s soaring TARGET2 deficit. The system could not be more calculated to cripple the Italian economy over the longer term.

Officially, there is no problem, because the ECB and all the national central bank TARGET2 positions net out to zero, and the mutual accounting between the national central banks keeps it that way. To its architects, a systemic failure of TARGET2 is inconceivable. But, because some national central banks end up using TARGET2 as a source of funding for their own balance sheets, which in turn fund their dodgy commercial banks using their non-performing loans as collateral, some national central banks have mounting potential liabilities, the making of national bank regulators.

The Eurosystem member with the greatest problem is Germany’s Bundesbank, now owed well over a trillion euros through TARGET2. The risk of losses is now accelerating rapidly as a consequence of the first round of Covid lockdowns, as can be seen in the chart of TARGET2 imbalances above. The second round of surging infections is leading to yet more economic destruction, yet to be reflected in TARGET2 balances, which will increase again. The Bundesbank should be very concerned.[iii]

Current imbalances in the system total over €1.5 trillion. According to the capital keys, in a systemic failure the Bundesbank’s assets of €1.115 trillion would be replaced by liabilities up to €400bn, the rest of the losses being spread around the other national banks. No one knows how it would work out because failure of the settlement system was never contemplated; but many if not all of the national central banks will have to be bailed out on a TARGET2 failure, presumably by the ECB as guarantor of the system. But with only €7.66bn of subscribed capital the ECB’s balance sheet is miniscule compared with the losses involved, and its shareholders will themselves be seeking a bailout to bailout the ECB. A TARGET2 failure would appear to require the ECB to effectively expand its QE programmes to recapitalise itself and the whole eurozone central banking system.

Now that really would be a crisis, the likes of which has never been seen before, where a central bank prints money purely to save itself and its regional agents.

The commercial banks are also in deep trouble

The deterioration in TARGET2 imbalances cannot be ignored by those with links to or outside of the Eurozone. While the UK is not in the euro or the TARGET2 settlement system, the Bank of England is a 14% shareholder in the ECB and could be on the hook for significant sums in the case of a Eurozone systemic crisis. Furthermore, with the City of London being the international financial centre for Europe, the UK banking system has considerable counterparty risks with Eurozone banks and other European banks.

Over 50% of the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks ETF is invested in Eurozone banks: 28% is invested in UK banks, 13% in Swedish banks, and the balance in Danish and Swiss banks. Its weighting in favour of the Eurozone and UK makes it a reasonable proxy for the market rating of the major banks based in the European time zone. Figure 2 shows the performance of this ETF compared with the S&P500 Index, taken as a proxy for the world’s stockmarkets.



Since the aftermath of the Lehman crisis in 2008, the S&P500 index was in a continual bull market until February this year. At the same time, the share prices of European banks as represented in the ETF were in a bear market. Ahead of the Fed’s reflationary move on 23 March, from mid-February both the S&P500 and the European banks ETF crashed, but the S&P then soared to new hights. After the briefest of recoveries, the ETF sank to new lows.

Given the strong performance of equity markets following the March lows, the abysmal performance of the banks’ shares is ominous. In fact, the contradiction is so great the message from the stock markets appears to be that the Fed and other central banks will ensure, so far as they can, that stimulus will reach businesses sufficiently for them to recover from the covid-19 hiatus irrespective of the banks survival. It is a contradictory message suggesting businesses may survive and prosper but banks might not.

Besides the enormous implied faith among investors being placed in the ability of central banks to keep the wealth creating stock market bubble on the boil, either banks are being overlooked or are in serious trouble. The latter appears to be the case. Being more undercapitalised than the major commercial banks in any other region, many Eurozone banks present serious systemic risks and should not be trading. Figure 1 shows the market leverages of European globally-important banks — the G-SIBs, including those of EU, UK and Switzerland.



Only two of them, the Swiss banks, have price to book ratios in excess of 50%. As well as these G-SIBs there are many other commercial banks in Europe with similarly horrifying price to book ratios and balance sheet to market capital leverage ratios. Blind to the implications of market capitalisations, regulators look no further than the relationship between total assets and balance sheet equity. But when markets place a price to book valuation of considerably less than 100% on any enterprise, they tell us the enterprise is not just insolvent, but in a winding-up, shareholders are unlikely to recover their funds. So, when we observe that Société Generale, the major French bank, has a price to book ratio of only 16.4%, without a major capital injection it is almost certainly bankrupt because its share price is little more than option money on its future survival.

The price to book values of all these G-SIBs have improved marginally in recent weeks, carried along by a dead-cat bounce. Even then, bank stocks remain close to their long-term lows when stock indices such as the S&P500 index have been forging new highs. This contradiction also suggests that investors have not been making rational decisions, and that with the exception of banks, stock markets are being driven by a combination of monetary expansion and the madness of crowds.

European businesses are now being bankrupted by a second covid-19 wave. The bankruptcies from the first have not yet fully worked into the financial system and will now be compounded by a second wave. Nothing can stop non-performing loans increasing and undermining overstretched commercial banks. The game of passing the parcel up into TARGET2 imbalances will continue until it crashes. Since few understand TARGET2 and those that do are frightened into silence, presumably it will be market assessments of individual banks  and their collapse into bankruptcy that will be the trigger for a widespread systemic crisis in the Eurozone. The whole Eurozone monetary system is deep into borrowed time.

The euro’s valuation

For the moment, the euro is riding high against the dollar, encouraging the ECB to explore deeper negative interest rates. But it is worth reminding ourselves of the currency dynamics behind the euro-dollar cross rate.

Until September 2019, large hedge funds were playing the fx swaps market. In effect, through their banks they were borrowing euros, selling them for dollars, and gaining the interest differential. This was one of the reasons for last September’s repo crisis in New York, when the leading banks ran out of balance sheet to finance both fx swaps and other derivative and credit activities. The repo crisis ended with the Fed cutting its funds rate from 2%, first to 1.5% then 1%, which took much of the steam out of the euro-dollar fx cross. With those positions now closed down the euro is more influenced by trade flows. And here, the EU runs a trade surplus of about €150bn with the US, which given that the US budget deficit has increased substantially, seems set to increase further unless Americans suddenly adopt a savings habit.

The capital position is favourable to the euro as well, when in June 2019, the last recorded total of US financial securities held by EU residents, totalled $9.631 trillion.[iv] And US residents’ ownership of Euro area securities totalled $2.952 trillion at end-2019[v] — a gap of $6.679 trillion. Therefore, in a banking crisis when foreign investments get sold down, there is likely to be substantial net buying of the euro against the dollar.

The euro has the potential to rise further against the dollar before and possibly during a systemic banking crisis. After such a crisis, all bets will be off. All we know is that the rottenness of the euro area monetary system will almost certainly lead to its destruction and most likely the end of the euro itself. The immediacy of the problem allows us to dismiss talk of resets and central bank digital currencies, which are being pushed by the monetary looters at the ECB who might sense there is a crisis to avoid. The talk of monetary stimulation with yet deeper negative interest rates is part of it, the hope being a new central bank digital currency will bypass a broken banking system.

But now the commercial banks are bust, we are about to see a monetary implosion that can only result in the euro’s destruction.


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https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/popular/2473-the-destruction-of-the-euro


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Interesting read in our latest installment of global economic doom and gloom. This analyst is predicting the euro's destruction and the end of the EU.

Years ago, there were major concerns about how greece's debt situation would impact the EU. Many worried the euro's value would plummet and exchanged their euro fiat for big screen TVs, electronics, anything of value that might retain value better than a defunct euro. Thankfully those fears turned out to be baseless and the euro stabilized. Greece's debt situation however, and many negative aspects of EU finance, trade and commerce remain unresolved.

The media is following a bizarre pattern. They only acknowledge negative effects pandemic lockdowns have on the USA. There is no discussion revolving around how lockdowns will impact europe or asia. We know that some EU nations carry higher debt to GDP ratios than the USA. And that many EU banks have less liquidity and capital on hand. It could mean that as badly as lockdowns have impacted america. They could be poised to hit the EU far worse.

Does anyone have thoughts or info on this?
2253  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Help me by giving some ideas of blackjack tournaments on: October 30, 2020, 09:21:14 PM
Now give me some ideas actually How it is possible to create a blackjack tournaments? Is it possible?


Ideas

  • Stream a blackjack tournament on twitch.tv or another broadcast service
  • Donate some proceeds to charities or humanitarian causes
  • Social media is a great platform for advertising and gaining a following
  • Prizes funded in bitcoin or crypto would make for an interesting twist

As someone who gambles, my biggest question would be what type of RNG (random number generator) a gambling platform uses. A solid and well designed RNG makes it difficult for players to cheat. A poorly designed RNG does the opposite.
2254  Economy / Economics / Re: Iran accepting cryptocurrencies to avoid US Dollar on: October 30, 2020, 08:53:04 PM
Economic sanctions against "rogue states" like iran are imo more damaging to the united states in contrast to any purported benefit or advantage. The psychology of the US punishing foreign trade partners for de dollarization practices being flawed on a fundamental level due to it not acknowledging the backlash which eventually ensues. But america's financial and economic policies are not usually created by politicians or analysts. They're normally made by bankers and banking cartels who are appointed to those posts.

I suspect iran adopting bitcoin has little to do with sanctions, though. Bitcoin is better than iran's native fiat currency and can conduct transactions at lower cost than iran's banks. As we've seen in argentina and elsewhere around the world. Adopting bitcoin is a natural progression for many due to it simply being a better technology in comparison to aging bank legacy systems.
2255  Economy / Economics / Re: Better Days ahead for the economy of developing countries in Africa on: October 30, 2020, 07:46:52 PM
Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala gets the nod, she is the first Nigerian and first African and woman to lead the WTO (World Trade Organization).



Many are still holding their breath, waiting for politicians to fix all their problems, deliver them from their sins and save them. The harsh reality is, many politicians don't care about those they represent or serving the public good. They only care about money.

Real and lasting positive change seldom comes from the top. It has to come from the bottom, at a grassroots level. From the average and the poor. They can learn to communicate, educate themselves and work together. This gives them real collective bargaining and leverage. Which they can utilize to improve circumstances and elevate their standard of living.
2256  Economy / Economics / Re: Down Jones intrinsic values?? on: October 29, 2020, 11:59:39 PM
Some americans are obsessed with punishing US big tech and retailers like amazon with unions, taxes and regulation. They believe billionaires like Jeff Bezos are evil and must be punished.

That's one take. Another take is that people are annoyed that companies like Amazon pay no federal income tax, while income taxes take a sizeable bite out of their own paychecks. Unions are not "punishment" either. They are the embodiment of basic 1st amendment rights of association, speech, etc. Giant corporations are not perpetual victims, and workers have a right to bargain collectively to secure fair wages and working conditions.




....

US companies pay the highest corporate taxes in the world. Some are unhappy with this arrangement and support significantly increasing taxes. This places US business in global markets at a disadvantage, when contrasted with foreign corporate tax rates.

Unions in the USA are neither objective nor bipartisan. They're extremely polarized an biased in favor of a single political demographic. Which leads to them being a method of control and perhaps, pushing agendas. One example of this is new york where amazon planned to create 25,000 high paying jobs prior to Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and others scaring amazon out of the state with plans to regulate amazon's worker base through unions.

Both precedents carry a potential to handicap US business in comparison to advantages foreign business enjoys. Microsoft could be a huge corporation with a monpoly over the OS sector. But if they pay 40% corporate taxes while chinese corporations pay 0% taxes. That disparity could end any advantages US corporations hold over the long term.
2257  Economy / Economics / Re: Down Jones intrinsic values?? on: October 29, 2020, 11:10:38 PM
I'm not sure you really understand how the stock market works.  The Dow Jones is filled with 30 of the largest United States stocks.  Names such as Nike, Microsoft, 3M, Honeywell, Intel, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, The Home Depot, Walmart, Disney etc are what makes up the Dow.  These companies have been around for decades and will continue to be.  If you think they'll be gone in 10 years, I'd love to hear how/why?  



Some americans are obsessed with punishing US big tech and retailers like amazon with unions, taxes and regulation. They believe billionaires like Jeff Bezos are evil and must be punished. This in theory will lead to a better and brighter future. Europe and asia on the opposite end of the spectrum, are often obsessed with giving their corporations and private sector as many advantages as possible. They want to grow their corporations into monopolies, rather than punish them for achieving this. The disparity in economic policy could outline a future where united states markets decline, with european and asian markets rising to fill their place.

The united states is (I think) the only nation in the world that severely punishes and breaks up corporations for having monopolies under anti trust laws.

There is a real possibility americans could soon succeed in destroying their own corporate giants.  
2258  Economy / Economics / Re: Down Jones intrinsic values?? on: October 28, 2020, 11:56:38 PM
What’s down joke intrinsic value?



I guess its intrinsic value is it being propped up by the net dollar worth of silicon valley. Which translates to it reprsenting giants like apple, google and microsoft which began as small businesses operated out of a garage. To eventually becoming described as monopolies over massive multi billion dollar industries. That type of growth and sector entrenchment is something nations around the world have tried to replicate for decades without success. Non IT giants like tesla, walmart and amazon also exhibit extraordinary amount of growth, value and domination, from a business pov.

Reading DOW listings is like compiling a dream team for global business domination. I guess that's the closest thing it has to intrinsic value.

BUT there is also the united states excellent record for humanitarianism and trust. Protecting rights, copyrighted and patented intellectual property and freedoms to consider. Which make the USA an attractive place to start and grow a business over many other global options. That could also be considered an intrinsic value, other nations of the world could have trouble replicating.
2259  Economy / Economics / Re: new central banks currenicies vs fiat currency? on: October 28, 2020, 11:47:53 PM
first whats wrong with fiat currency? the cash is works good nothing wrong with this.



Those who watch the news may have noticed the media's tendency to be negative towards monopolies. They say US big tech is a monopoly, which must be fined, penalized or broken up under US anti trust laws. And that consumers and industry could greatly benefit under free markets if there were more business competition. As opposed to monolithic, centralized, monopolies. Which have a tendency to result in industry wide stagnation and poor terms, prices and conditions for consumer markets.

These observations apply to fiat currency, which could be considered monopolies. Governments who issue fiat could benefit from having competition as could businesses and everyone else.

Many are extremely negative in their stance on bitcoin. They claim bitcoin undermines government authority and is an attack on the state. Its not. Bitcoin only gives governments the competition they need to build a better, more stable and reliable fiat currency. The same way that competition between AMD and Intel gives consumers better and more affordable CPUs every year.
2260  Economy / Economics / Re: Will the Digital Yuan makes China even more powerful? on: October 28, 2020, 11:36:32 PM
China has been testing the Digital Yuan and soon the Digital Yuan (DCEP) will be implemented soon. Will this move make China even more independent and more powerful? And what are the consequences for the world trade?


This question revolves around whether emerging crypto markets might be compared to a young silicon valley in its infancy. Whether china is well positioned to capitalize on growth potential, in order to someday become renowned worldwide as a hub of global crypto based trade and commerce.

China hasn't done much to nurture its cryptocurrency or crypto mining industries. Which could be said to depend heavily upon innovation, new ideas and small start ups. Their approach has been more top down big business. They own bitmain, and a majority of bitcoin's mining hashrate. But have not done much to empower smaller less established crypto players who could be considered the largest sector of future growth.

This could mean that in the future, other countries who do more to support small business in crypto will overtake china and pull ahead.
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