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2181  Economy / Economics / Re: Warren Buffett & "Rat Poison" on: January 14, 2021, 04:31:47 PM
The gist of the whole story may be contained in this article that tries to explain why Buffett will never invest in BTC ->

Bitcoin Jumps To $34,000, But Here’s Why Warren Buffett Will Never Own It


...


  • Warren Buffett owns stock in the banking industry
  • The banking industry buys and holds bitcoin
  • Warren Buffett owns bitcoin, by owning the stock of banks, who own bitcoin

Its the same as the CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, making comments on bitcoin.

Before JP Morgan adopted crypto investment.
2182  Economy / Economics / Re: The Man Who Called the 2008 Market Bubble Says This One Could Pop in Spring on: January 13, 2021, 10:52:00 PM
You should substantiate your claim that the vaccine won’t work against the new strains of the virus because it seems critical to your assessment that this guy I’ve never heard of is right about a collapse, and more importantly all evidence I’ve seen reported so far are that the current vaccines are effective against the new Uk strain of the virus.


IMO exaggerated promises surrounding vaccines are made to prop up stock markets and public morale.

Vaccines never lived up to their marketing hype. Not with flu shots. Nor with gardisil and HPV vaccines.

There's no reason to believe anything has changed there.



Napoleon said leaders deal in hope. Offering hope to the masses is where vaccines come in. Aside from that I expect little or no real world value from them.
2183  Economy / Economics / Re: Warren Buffett & "Rat Poison" on: January 13, 2021, 10:25:27 PM
All quotations in OP were made when Warren Buffett was the largest holder of Wells Fargo stock

Since then Buffett trimmed his Wells Fargo stake down to roughly 25% of the holdings he left 3 years ago

Quote
Warren Buffett Continues To Cash Out Of Wells Fargo

Berkshire divested of 100.02 million shares of the San Francisco-based bank on Aug. 14, impacting the equity portfolio by -1.25%. It now owns a total of 137.5 million shares, which is a steep decline from the approximately 480 million shares held three years ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2020/09/08/warren-buffett-continues-to-cash-out-of-wells-fargo/?sh=7c4333504b93

....

Buffett was also a big holder of JP Morgan. A position which he appears to have since liquidated.

Quote
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A)(NYSE: BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffett has now been dumping bank stocks for three straight quarters. But I was still surprised to see the Oracle of Omaha virtually eliminate Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) in the third quarter of 2020.

Berkshire cut its holdings of JPMorgan from 22.2 million shares, worth more than $2 billion, to less than 1 million shares, worth less than $100 million. That's down even more since the end of 2019, when Berkshire owned more than 59 million shares of JPMorgan, valued at nearly $8.3 billion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/is-jpmorgan-chase-still-a-warren-buffett-stock/ar-BB1cEbSi

....

If someone asked Warren Buffett to comment on bitcoin today.

They might receive a completely different answer in contrast to his response back when Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was a large holder of bank stocks.

Banks at the time viewed bitcoin as a rival and competitor, which made holders of bank industry stock somewhat polarized.
2184  Economy / Economics / The Man Who Called the 2008 Market Bubble Says This One Could Pop in Spring on: January 08, 2021, 10:56:55 PM
Quote
Jeremy Grantham, the long-term investment strategist of GMO and a renowned stock-market skeptic, says that the “epic” stock bubble of today could deflate as early as the late spring.

“My best guess as to the longest this bubble might survive is the late spring or early summer, coinciding with the broad rollout of the COVID vaccine,” Grantham wrote in a note to investors titled “Waiting for the Last Dance.” “At that moment, the most pressing issue facing the world economy will have been solved. Market participants will breathe a sigh of relief, look around, and immediately realize that the economy is still in poor shape, stimulus will shortly be cut back with the end of the COVID crisis, and valuations are absurd. ‘Buy the rumor, sell the news.’”

Last year, GMO, which Grantham founded, dramatically reduced its exposure to stocks, cutting net equity exposure in its Benchmark-Free Allocation Strategy to 25% from 55%. Today, target equity exposure for the strategy is 29%.

Grantham has been early to call other bear markets: GMO got out of Japan in 1987, two years before it peaked in 1989. For years, he has called the current market overvalued as it marched higher.

That has turned out to be premature. The S&P 500 closed up 16.3% for 2020, gaining just shy of 50% over the past two years, its largest two-year gain since 1999. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2068 points, or 7.3%, in 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite roared 43.6% higher last year. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 18.4%.

Grantham is credited with predicting the 2000 and 2008 downturns and, more recently, has become known for speaking out about the perils of the changing climate and what it means for life on earth.

He argues that today’s bull market, born in 2009, “has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble” that can be considered one of the great bubbles of financial history, akin to the South Sea bubble and those of 1929 and 2000. “These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost—and where investors truly prove their mettle,” he writes.


“The single most dependable feature of the late stages of the great bubbles of history has been really crazy investor behavior, especially on the part of individuals,” writes Grantham. Even though he owns a Tesla Model 3, Grantham’s personal favorite example of reckless behavior is the market value of Tesla (TSLA), which, at “now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25 million per car sold each year versus $9,000 per car for GM. What has 1929 got to equal that?”

Other examples of excess: The volume of small retail stock purchases; 248 special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, listings; and the market’s vertiginous advance from its March lows. Meanwhile, the combination of a price/earnings ratio near the top of its historical range and an economy near the bottom “is completely without precedent, and may even be a better measure of speculative intensity than any SPAC,” Grantham writes.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/jeremy-grantham-says-stock-market-bubble-could-deflate-in-the-spring-51609932601


....


Doom and gloom prediction could pan out IMO. The vaccine won't work against the new mutant strain of corona which recently emerged in the UK and new york. Lockdowns will continue to have devastating effects on global job markets and economies. Inflation in the US may be relatively contained within the banking sector but that could change with new stimulus bills being drafted.

The fed is been responsible for the majority of uptrending US stock movement since 2008. But their control has limitations.

Lockdowns coupled with free money airdrops could represent the classic meme of the snake devouring its own tail. As an analogy for states attempting to tax and spend their way out of debt.
2185  Economy / Economics / Re: Trump bans Alipay and seven other Chinese apps on: January 08, 2021, 09:45:05 PM
Does Congress have to vote it in, has it already or is the US president just allowed to make laws like this?


Its an executive order. Its not required to be voted on by house or senate. In the years leading up to Trump's inauguration US Presidential executive orders were expanded upon. To a point where Trump can order things like this on a broad scale without oversight.

I would guess Trump and his lawyers investigated carefully to try to find a way to make executive orders which the following administration would have difficulty overturning. Without specifics being divulged its difficult to know what type of long term durability these measures have.
2186  Economy / Economics / Trump bans Alipay and seven other Chinese apps on: January 08, 2021, 09:33:28 PM
Quote
US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order banning transactions with eight Chinese apps.

The apps include popular payments platform Alipay, as well as QQ Wallet and WeChat Pay.

The order, which takes effect in 45 days, says that the apps are being banned because they are a threat to US national security.

It flags the possibility that the apps could be used to track and build dossiers on US federal employees.

Tencent QQ, CamScanner, SHAREit, VMate and WPS Office are also included within the order, which only kicks in after Mr Trump has left office.

"The United States must take aggressive action against those who develop or control Chinese connected software applications to protect our national security," the order said.

President Trump's order says "by accessing personal electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, and computers, Chinese connected software applications can access and capture vast swaths of information from users, including sensitive personally identifiable information and private information."

The Trump administration has ratcheted up pressure on Chinese companies in its final months in office, including those it considers a national security risk.

President Trump has signed executive orders against a range of Chinese firms arguing they could share data with the Chinese government.

Chinese social media app TikTok and telecoms giant Huawei have been among the casualties of Washington's crackdown.

Last month, the Commerce Department added dozens of Chinese companies, including the country's top chipmaker SMIC and drone manufacturer DJI Technology, to a trade blacklist.

The administration also restricted a number of Chinese and Russian companies with alleged military ties from buying sensitive US goods and technology.

China has consistently denied claims that these firms share their data with the Chinese government and has responded by imposing its own export laws restricting the export of military technology.

In August, the US ordered ByteDance, the owner of social media app TikTok, to either shut down or sell off its US assets.

Despite missing a deadline to complete the sale, the US is yet to shut down the app and negotiations continue over its future.

Delisting debacle

The latest ban comes as the White House quietly pushed the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to consider a second U-turn on its decision to delist three Chinese telecoms giants.

Last week the NYSE announced it would delist the China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom in line with another executive order.

On Monday, however, the NYSE reversed that decision, announcing it had decided not to delist the three companies after further consultation with US regulators.

The NYSE made the decision based on ambiguity about whether the securities were actually covered by the order.

However, the exchange has come under pressure over its decision.

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the NYSE President Stacey Cunningham to tell her he disagrees with the decision, according to Reuters.

Republican Senator and China hardliner Marco Rubio has also spoken out, saying that the NYSE's refusal to delist the companies was an "outrageous effort" to undermine the President's executive order.

The NYSE is owned by Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which is run by billionaire Jeffrey Sprecher.

His wife Kelly Loeffler is one of two Republican senators facing run-off elections on Tuesday in Georgia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55555269


....


Not certain how long these bans will remain in effect. Biden could overturn these executive orders the second he assumes office?

Perhaps this could influence china into taking a less harsh stance on crypto exchanges and mining in the country. If Trump bans all of china's fiat apps then bitcoin and crypto would be the only things they had left?

China has announced bans on cryptocurrency exchanges and cryptocurrency mining in the past. With mixed enforcement and results.
2187  Economy / Economics / Re: Cboe Plans to Launch Cryptocurrency Indexes! on: January 06, 2021, 07:45:43 PM
Politics associated with coins being listed on exchanges could transfer over to asset listings on indexes.

Being listed on an index is free publicity and advertising, its also an endorsement. It lends credibility to listed assets, over assets that are not.

This opens a door to forms of profiteering, which represent a conflict of interest, in terms of coins being known to spend money in exchange for being listed.

It also presents a form of control and regulation where he who controls the indexes decides which assets are listed (endorsed) and which are not.

I would prefer a world without indexes, rather than a world with them.

I disagree with privacy coins being delisted from exchanges, when they weren't breaking laws, and the form of endorsement/control it represents.
2188  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: ⚡Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index - does Bitcoin boil the oceans? on: January 06, 2021, 07:31:24 PM
The overwhelming majority of bitcoin mining taps surplus electricity, without adding additional strain to existing power grids or power plants.

The most affordable supply of surplus electricity comes from hydroelectric dams and renewable power.

This means market forces align to create an environment where BTC mining naturally taps the most environmentally friendly and under utilized sources of electricity possible.

It addition to this, it is possible to guess how politicized BTC mining content is by measuring the degree to which they cite these basic fundamentals.
2189  Economy / Economics / Re: The Rise of Layer 2s Could Spell End for Altcoins (opinion) on: January 06, 2021, 06:48:47 PM
edan yago has been saying this for 5+ years. IMO, he's overly focused on this idea that all value must converge on one cryptocurrency---bitcoin.

he never expected ethereum to blow up like it did. he expected rootstock to emerge way ahead of it. it flopped instead.

i don't trust his read on the market. he's biased. he puts his anti-altcoin politics first and foremost, which IMO clouds his judgment re where the market is actually headed as a whole. he's telling us what he wants to happen, not what is actually gonna happen. with his track record, there is a big difference.



Dash's recent delisting via bittrex aligns with that. As do other recent events. A unified and coordinated front across multiple spectrums usually indicates an agenda of some type is being pushed. It would appear they're endorsing crypto assets they believe they can use or control. While simultaneously throwing shade at crypto assets under the control of others, not affiliated with them like dash. To centralize and consolidate markets as is so common in this day and age.

I don't agree with Yago's analysis or think what he said was valid. Only wanted to take the time to acknowledge his attempt was much better than Jamie Dimon's. He came at it from a smart angle that was much less obvious than the majority of attempts.

Ethereum's partnerships with microsoft and JP morgan could be its main saving grace atm.
2190  Economy / Economics / The Rise of Layer 2s Could Spell End for Altcoins (opinion) on: January 04, 2021, 02:10:07 PM
Quote
Phase 1 of the Bitcoin journey is complete. Over the past 10 years we have seen the Bitcoin network rebuff questions as to whether it would survive as a concept. Today, we see the bitcoin cryptocurrency gaining monetary premium as prominent institutional investors identify it as the ultimate inflation hedge. As we transition into 2021, observers are turning their attention to what a financial market built around the world’s first cryptocurrency will end up looking like.

The talk of the town over the past year has been focused on the potential of decentralized finance (DeFi) for digital assets and financial smart contracts, protocols and applications built on Ethereum. A development with equally promising potential to shake up crypto markets are layer 2 technologies, the overlaying network of services that expand on a blockchain’s capabilities.

Quote
This post is part of CoinDesk's 2020 Year in Review – a collection of op-eds, essays and interviews about the year in crypto and beyond. Edan Yago is a neuroscientist and entrepreneur who dropped everything nine years ago to focus on Bitcoin. He has most recently contributed to bitcoin-native DeFi platform Sovryn. Previously, Yago founded Cement DAO and Epiphyte to provide global remittance with bitcoin.

This year has seen the rollout of the first layer 2 projects. In fact, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin himself has stated that layer 2 is now the roadmap for Ethereum, and by extension other blockchains, too. This means that other scaling solutions, or ways to improve a blockchain’s functionality such as tokens – application specific bits of code – could become obsolete.

Will the success of layer 2 developments mean the demise of altcoins?

2020: The high watermark for altcoins

In the beginning there was only Bitcoin, and it did something quite remarkable – it created value out of nowhere. The Bitcoin blockchain had been designed to create only one thing – bitcoin. As others jumped onto this alchemist bandwagon, a multitude of alternative coins were created that were meant to function in a specific application like health care, identity or gaming. In reality, almost all of these projects ended up going nowhere.

There was one notable exception. Ethereum, and its provision of smart contracts provided real functionality even if the results of its open system are dubious. Its native currency, ether, is the second-most popular cryptocurrency after bitcoin and it is rapidly growing. Ethereum’s first “killer app” was the initial coin offering, a way to create more tokens.

However, with the rise of DeFi in 2020 Ethereum’s technological flaws have come into relief.

Ethereum is notorious for being incredibly slow, expensive to use and inefficient to the point where it is sometimes difficult to even get a transaction in. Progress has been frustratingly slow on Ethereum 2.0, the blockchain upgrade designed to address these issues. As a result, Ethereum developers in 2020 turned to layer 2.

Arise, layer 2

This year, the technologies around layer 2 have matured dramatically. On Ethereum, this has taken the form of DeFi projects being built on rollups (off-chain aggregations of transactions inside an Ethereum smart contract) consisting of both Optimistic rollups and zero-knowledge proofs or ZK-Rollups. When performing transactions on a rollup, the only confirmations made on Ethereum are in aggregate, meaning that for the vast majority of transactions Ethereum’s native currency doesn’t need to be involved at all. Such a move significantly alters the importance of the underlying chain.

On Bitcoin, DeFi applications are being rolled out on Lightning network and sidechains such as RSK. 2020 was also the year that interchain solutions such as Polkadot, NEAR and Cosmos went live, effectively as layer 2 solutions for Bitcoin and Ethereum connected via “blockchain bridges.” For instance, Sovryn, a decentralized bitcoin trading and lending platform, takes advantage of Bitcoin layer 2 technology while deploying a bridge to the Ethereum ecosystem. Keeping its native currency as bitcoin and giving primacy to stablecoins results in a solution that is faster, cheaper, more secure and easy to use. What this means is that the primacy of the “chain” is diminishing fast.

Fragmentation

Until now the success of a blockchain lay with the number of people willing to believe in its mission. Buying into an initial coin offering or a token was similar to betting on that particular chain succeeding against competitors in a crowded marketplace.

Layer 2 solutions represent a fragmentation of the chain-first approach. Because there are so many layer 2 methods and systems, and no clear way for the ecosystem to coalesce around any one of them, the fragmentation we have seen this year will worsen. While layer 1 systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum have built-in interoperable standards, layer 2 does not. The implication is that the network effect will no longer be in the chain but in the assets. Look at bitcoin and tether in 2020. Both have migrated massive value across chains because the tokens themselves are the focal point, not the chains.

IN FACE LAYER 1 IRRELEVANCY, THESE ALTCOINS WILL BY NATURE LOSE THEIR JUSTIFICATION TO EXIST.

As fragmentation accelerates, exchanging value will increasingly rely on interoperable or “cross-communication” solutions. The various different rollups will eventually need to subscribe to a common set of standards, and those standards will be the tokens or assets, rather than the chains. In this new world, altcoins will be at a severe disadvantage when up against the likes of bitcoin and stablecoins. This is because up until now altcoins have been based on the promise of a chain with unique properties. Their existence has been predicated on the idea that they would be the native currency for a chain that would gain in importance.

In other words, the value of these currencies is derived purely from the fact they are the “native currency” of a chain with unique features. In face layer 1 irrelevancy, these altcoins will by nature lose their justification to exist. Monetary premia will accrue instead to the things to which monetary premia traditionally accrues, which is broad acceptance and deep liquidity.

This trend towards irrelevance will include ETH. People have assumed ETH as an altcoin should be valuable, because Ethereum is popular. But something strange has happened on Ethereum in that there is as much value on the Ethereum chain in the form of bitcoin, stablecoins and other tokens, as in ether.

The dollars and bitcoin on the Ethereum chain effectively provide the ability to transfer value without the need for ETH. Smart contracts can easily be ported to a different chain when transferring tokens over on a bridge (which is what happens whether you’re moving to RSK, Polkadot or a rollup). What we will begin to see is the breakup of the Ethereum ecosystem in a world where two notably bigger currencies, dollars and bitcoin, are accepted and liquid forms of value transfer. The primacy of ETH is unclear, it’s future uncertain.

What's coming

Looking forward, it is expected that fees on Ethereum will very soon become so high that new and current users alike will be pushed out. Some of them will abandon DeFi and self-sovereignty altogether and go to exchanges. Some will migrate to layer 2 in the form of rollups. And some will take advantage of the interoperability provided by “bridges” via RSK, Polkadot or Cosmos.

The fragmentation of the smart contract space is expected imminently. Instead of consolidating around the different base layer blockchains, a consolidation will occur around assets.

Tokens will flourish more than ever, but the nature of these tokens will change. Rather than trying to capture a monetary premia, tokens will represent other types of asset classes such as equity and debt in the form of crypto bonds and derivatives.

What we’re going to realize in 2021 is that the decentralized monetary system is effectively represented only by bitcoin and stablecoins. That’s it – they’ve won that game. Now that the game is over the next challenge is going to be the decentralization of the financial layer, and the creation of financial tokens will play an important part in that. For bitcoin, we are at the end of the beginning.

No longer a proto-money, bitcoin is becoming the reserve currency of the future of finance. For altcoins we are at the beginning of the end. Bitcoin is no longer limited to a single chain, and the theory of chain specific currencies is being debunked.

https://www.coindesk.com/rise-of-layer-2s-altcoins-like-ethereum


....



Interesting read. One of the smarter and more informed opinion pieces I've had the pleasure of reading.

He contends blockchains will lose prominence in a paradigm shift towards off chain layer 2 applications. And that alts whose unique blockchain features are their main claim to fame will fall by the wayside as a result of them being less suited to survive and thrive in an off chain world.

Traders and investors could second this analysis as some alts are not maintaining pace with BTC ascension to $30k.

This seems like a good topic for discussion. How do you see things?

2191  Economy / Economics / Re: Very serious Question the New money system on: January 04, 2021, 01:30:47 PM
If no new money system we will not get out from the Lock down!
Government knows people can not handle this lockdown for too Long so they will make asap new money system.


We can guess what the solution will be by reading old articles published by the economist 50 years ago, leading up to the present. Over time it has adapted and evolved to best suit circumstances. It is difficult to say what its final form will be. A lot can change.

Initially, the solution appeared to oppose crypto and bitcoin. As time passed bitcoin and crypto became more integrated, central banks experimented with their own blockchains.

Fiat currencies are historically defined as lacking intrinsic value. Blockchain offers potential advantages of intrinsic value coupled with lacking disadvantages of gold and precious metals. There is an opportunity to leverage the best of both worlds by hybridizing fiat and crypto. If your goal is to create an optimal currency, a crossbred hybrid may be the best platform for the job. But who knows what the future holds. It all depends on what the end goals are. That falls into a realm of "conspiracy theories" which most find distasteful to discuss.
2192  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: UFC Pick your Champions for 2021 on: January 04, 2021, 01:07:49 PM
Can I post predictions and simply not win anything if I'm not eligible?

Simply for the fun of posting.   Grin

....


- Heavyweights (265 lb, 120 kg)
Francis Ngannou
- Light heavyweights (205 lb, 93 kg)
Jan Blachowicz
- Middleweights (185 lb, 84 kg)
Israel Adesanya
- Welterweights (170 lb, 77 kg)
Kamaru Usman
- Lightweights (155 lb, 70 kg)
Islam Makhachev
- Featherweights (145 lb, 65 kg)
Calvin Kattar
- Bantamweights (135 lb, 61 kg)
Petr Yan
- Flyweights (125 lb, 56 kg)
Deiveson Figueiredo
- Women's Featherweights (145 lb, 65 kg)
Amanda Nunes
- Women's Bantamweights (135 lb, 61 kg)
Amanda Nunes
- Women's Flyweights (125 lb, 56 kg)
Valentina Shevchenko
- Women's Strawweights (115 lb, 52 kg)
Weili Zhang
2193  Economy / Economics / Re: Very serious Question the New money system on: January 04, 2021, 12:39:09 PM
Its common to frame financial topics in with me or against me terms. In an absolutist sense. "The old money system is either with us, or against us. Fiat is pro bitcoin or anti bitcoin."



Its also common to create a crisis around many issues. To manufacture an excuse to push an agenda.

Rather than divide and alienate. Could fiat and crypto work together to create a brighter and better future for all?

Some rely on fiat to run their business, support jobs, pay bills. Some rely on crypto and digital currencies for the same things. We don't need to deprive anyone of the capacity to live their life by shunning fiat, crypto or any system of monetary exchange people rely upon for bread. Am I right?

Mike Tyson is famous for saying "everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face". Certainly many have plans or agendas. The plan appears to adapt and change as time passes. Even the original architects may not know the outcome or final evolution of the monster they created.
2194  Other / Off-topic / Reverse Engineering the source code of the BioNTech/Pfizer SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine on: January 04, 2021, 11:59:05 AM
https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source-code-of-the-biontech-pfizer-vaccine/


....



Fascinating content.

 Smiley
2195  Economy / Economics / Re: New Year | New Resolutions - How you gonna manage your finances - 2021 ? on: January 01, 2021, 01:07:19 AM
In business, life and finance most will pursue a path of least resistance to achieve goals. They'll grasp for low hanging fruit and search for easy outs. On a superficial level this may seem like the easiest and simplest road. It is also the most heavily saturated, played out and travelled path. With the most competition.

Sometimes the path with least competition and highest reward is creating real value and solving real problems.

I can't say how things will go in 2021. Hopefully I can lean more towards the latter.

Happy new year to everyone! Success in all that you do!   Smiley
2196  Economy / Economics / Re: The supply issue on: December 31, 2020, 11:25:27 PM
If bitcoin's price and market cap continue to increase, and if a 2nd layer or off-network protocol allows people to subdivide their satoshis into smaller and smaller units, does the whole 21 million BTC supply cap even matter anymore?


Years ago the minimum BTC wager on sports gambling websites was 0.01. Years later the minimum wager was adjusted to 0.001. Today many websites offer a minimum wager of 0.0001.

Its a natural progression for increasingly smaller denominations of BTC to become normalized as BTC value increases.

The extra decimal places on the right side could be considered a design feature to accommodate future growth and expansion.
2197  Economy / Economics / Re: China to overtake the Us as the largest global economy by 2028? on: December 31, 2020, 11:02:38 PM
The ruling communist party in china insist on owning and controlling everything. They forced Jack Ma to step down as Alibaba head so they could replace him with a member of their communist party. This is their standard practice. Their largest successful enterprise usually have CCP loyalists in key leadership positions running them. Its typical for these CCP heads to be greedy and incompetent and to run the businesses they control, into the ground. Its one of the main reasons behind china's economic growth consistently falling below expectations. Its a significant obstacle they will need to overcome if they're to take america's place as a dominant economic power.

Many americans are demanding higher taxes and greater regulation on their domestic enterprise -- doing everything in their power to kill jobs and business in their own country. They believe killing thousands of jobs in their own country "won't affect them". These negative trends tend to be limited to democrat run regions like california and new york. Leading to an exodus of capitalists to right wing states like texas. Elon Musk and tesla are one example.

Being an american I hope the US wins. China has 14 of the top 30 most polluted cities in the world for a reason. Its better for everyone if they stay in their own borders.
2198  Other / Politics & Society / How long will it take Joe Biden to fulfill a campaign promise to cure cancer on: December 27, 2020, 10:04:12 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A6V6wxc81s

...

Joe Biden:  "If I'm elected President. You're going to see the single most important thing that changes america. We're gonna cure cancer."

How long will it take him to fulfill this campaign promise, I wonder.
2199  Economy / Economics / Re: EU reality and challenges. on: December 26, 2020, 11:51:45 PM
Very well said and noticed regarding the EU! Thank you !
I will only correct about the USA - their obligations, social programs and others are not a "time bomb", because they have the tools to easily disarm such "bombs" - the printing press and the dollar as the blood of the world economy. They can fill the American market with any amount of money, solving any internal problems, and the world financial system based on the dollar will neutralize and make such steps safe.


Imagine a scenario where liabilities of social programs grow 20% annually. While tax revenues grow 5% or less. Inevitably a point is reached where liabilities and debt become unsustainable. The history of programs like social security are defined by this precedent. Which is why every 10 to 20 years social security taxes must be hiked to cover ever growing costs. The program's survival over decades gives it an illusion of sustainability. But inevitably we'll reach a point where taxes can no longer be hiked higher to cover costs and default will occur.

Some say the US can print money or militarily steal from foreign nations to cover costs. My thoughts on the topic:

#1  Money printing leads to hyperinflation
#2  War in the middle east costed trillions of dollars more than it profited, which could make war an unprofitable enterprise

In past years the comptroller of the GAO (government accountability office) did a nation wide public tour where he gave lectures and presentations on the dire situation of US deficit and taxes.

Quote
Walker: Growing Deficit Threatens Our Future

David Walker, former comptroller general of the U.S. and former head of the Government Accountability Office, says drastic decisions have yet to be made about spending cuts and taxes that would realign the federal budget. Walker tells Deborah Amos that the country's financial condition is much worse than advertised, and the growing deficit threatens our future. Walker is the author of Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility.

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122436097

I took what he said on this topic back in 2010 very seriously.

But I think no one else did.
2200  Economy / Economics / Re: Need not just stimulus but usdt stimulus on: December 24, 2020, 08:28:50 PM
To help crypto we need usdt stimulus.

Exchangers should do air drops of usdt to active traders. Yes the government do stimulus and cheap loans but yet this funds are not going in crypto economy so fed should directly start working with USDT and Every time fed printing money there will be USDT airdrops also for crypto traders and active traders rewards Smiley



Sounds like a cutting edge and futuristic plan in the making.   Smiley

American markets are banned from purchasing and owning USDT afaik.

It might be possible for foreign nations to do so.

Quote
Seven Countries Where Cryptocurrency Investments Are Not Taxed

Jun 24, 2019

1. Germany
2. Singapore
3. Portugal
4. Malta
5. Malaysia
6. Belarus
7. Switzerland

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2019/06/24/seven-countries-where-cryptocurrency-investments-are-not-taxed/

The type of policy OP proposed could be best suited to nations granting crypto investments tax exemption.

If the united states wishes to retain its status as the "#1 country in the world" they would be wise to tax exempt crypto investments and remove regulation prohibiting purchasing of stable coins like USDT imo.
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