^ Yup! It's an interesting theory cos coach Zahabi goes on and says that it's prolly how McGregor's muscles are connected to the bone that makes his punches really fast and how that and the thicker muscle fibers can't retain oxygen as much. I'm gonna look for that vid then post it. It's a good watch.
I think that Firas Zahabi says smart things sometimes but his views on genetics and fast twitch versus slow twitch muscle fibers could be a bit outdated and obsolete. IMO the main causes of athletes having poor cardio are #1 PED abuse #2 drug or substance abuse. The first GGG versus Canelo fight might have shown how athletes who test positive for steroids have a tough time matching the cardio of natural athletes. Both PED's and drugs have the potential to damage a person's body causing them to have inferior cardio. In Conor's case he's a big party guy. He parties hard with his team. One of Conor's teammates, Gunnar Nelson, also developed cardio issues around the same time that Conor did. Looking at Gunnar Nelson's record, he began having issues with his cardio around december 2015. That's around the time Conor had the same problem, which could mean those guys party or celebrate a little too hard for their own good. |
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This is a good Cody vs TJ post fight breakdown by BJJ Scout. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9mothnNP94I didn't realize Justin Buccholz left Team Alpha Male early in 2018. That marks the 3rd head coach Team Alpha Male has lost in a relatively short span of time. Martin Kampmann, Duane Ludwig and now Justin Buccholz. The excuse Martin Kampmann used for quitting was his family didn't like california and he wanted to move elsewhere. Duane Ludwig leaving the team was highly publicized on the ultimate fighter season of Urijah Faber and Conor coaching and so that split was ugly. Justin Buccholz quitting as head coach seems to have swept under a rug and kept mostly quiet. There have been hints dropped that Urijah Faber is the reason TAM head coaches have been quitting. And there have been hints dropped that Cody Garbrandt wasn't training properly (maybe because of Urijah Faber) leading up to this rematch. That's another angle to the fight which could be worth looking at. Especially if Cody Garbrandt's skill level declines noticeably in his future fights. |
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@Hydrogen. What injuries? I reckon Khabib is in the peak of his career and in his conditioning. Around... 2015 Khabib was on the verge of retirement. Khabib's father said that he hoped Khabib would only fight for 1-2 years longer. UFC lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov revealed that he continues to contemplate retirement but will not finalize his decision until he speaks to his father.Nov 8, 2015 Khabib suffered his third consecutive injury last week and was forced to withdraw from his highly anticipated clash against Tony Ferguson at the TUF 22 Finale. While Khabib's injury came in the form of a broken rib - an excruciatingly painful yet far from career-threatening injury - he revealed that he is contemplating retirement. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/11/8/9691450/ufc-khabib-nurmagomedov-retirement-father-abdulmanap-mma-news Here we are 3 years later. Khabib is still fighting. I don't know all of Khabib's injuries or how serious they were. But Khabib was seriously considering retirement back in 2015. I speculate that Conor has already started some kind of cardio training prior of accepting the fight. Yes. Very smart of you to think that.  I think McGregor's cardio problems is more cos of genetics than the lack of training or the inability of his camp to 'fix' it. I mean he's been fighting at a high level for years now, why still have that issue?
That's what Firas Zahabi the head coach at tristar said. Looking at Conor's earlier fights, he always fought @ a high pace & never had cardio issues. This issue Conor has where he has trouble going the distance is a new thing. And it has gotten worse over time. Conor's teammates like Gunnar Nelson also began having cardio issues around the same time Conor did. |
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After the fight Demetrious Johnson said he might have broke his foot and torn a ligament in his leg during his fight with Henry Cejudo. That could be why he wasn't moving as much or as well as he normally does in his fights. Have to wait for confirmation on that.
Dominick Cruz had a medical issue with his feet when he fought Cody Garbrandt. I think he's getting surgery to fix that. Cruz has had that issue for a long time. He had it when he fought TJ Dillashaw which is why those leg kicks of TJ had so much of an effect. It was worse when Cruz fought Cody Garbrandt. If that helps put things into perspective.
MMA update~~
Dana White's Contender Season 2 Week 8 event is tuesday august 7th.
Greg Hardy vs. Tebaris Gordon
Bobby Moffett vs. Jacob Kilburn
Joseph Lowry vs. Devonte Smith
Alex Gilpin vs. JR Coughran
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Dennis Bryant
Then there's bellator 204 on august 17th.
Darrion Caldwell vs. Noad Lahat
Logan Storley vs. A.J. Matthews
James Gallagher vs. Ricky Bandejas
Tywan Claxton vs. Cris Williams
David Michaud vs. Corey Davis
Jason Jackson vs. Jordon Larson
Troy Nawrocki vs. Omar Morales
DeMarques Jackson vs. Bryce Logan
Micah Peatrowsky vs. Keith Phathaem
Then we have UFC Justin Gaethje vs James Vick on august 25th.
Justin Gaethje vs. James Vick
Featherweight Michael Johnson vs. Andre Fili
Cortney Casey vs. Angela Hill
Jake Ellenberger vs. Bryan Barberena
Andrew Sanchez vs. Markus Perez
Eryk Anders vs. Tim Williams
James Krause vs. Warlley Alves
Iuri Alcântara vs. Cory Sandhagen
John Moraga vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Rani Yahya vs. Luke Sanders
Joanne Calderwood vs. Kalindra Faria
Drew Dober vs. Jon Tuck
Mickey Gall vs. George Sullivan
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Gold could rise, especially if its undervalued. I'm not certain how conscious the public is of deficits, inflation and other concerns revolving around fiat based money. We could witness a future correlation between increasing awareness of these issues and higher gold ownership and demand. Whether gold will appeal to younger generations is an open question. Isolationist policies seem common with youth. They're extremely conservative and only stick to financial basics they have used in the past. Gold or crypto may be too extreme or radical for them to bother with, unless circumstances force them to change.
Another issue with gold is, dwindling firearm ownership could prevent mass adoption. Those living in australia, france the UK and similar designated "gun free zones" could have issues securing gold holdings without resorting to more expensive options like utilizing safety deposit boxes. A shift towards gold could also increase violence and crime. Its usually much more profitable to rob someone hoarding gold than it is someone with a few dollars in their wallet or credit cards.
There is another possibility which says bitcoin and crypto could appeal more to younger generations than gold with cryptos convenience and superior user experience. While offering many similar protections against inflation and overprinting.
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A Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency podcast that is focused on trading and investing. Hosts interview guests and discuss the latest news in the markets. With experienced traders including an ex-JP Morgan hedge fund manager to talk Bitcoin and big picture moves. Are the latest moves all manipulation or just demand driven? Is the latest SEC statement on Ethereum positive for the markets? When will Bitcoin see all-time highs again? Up until early 2016, there was only one choice for holding cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin. From there, the marketplace has exploded. In this episode, they discuss constructing your portfolio and how to gather the proper information to make informed investments and trades. Latest episode on SoundCloud - https://soundcloud.com/buy-or-sell-what-the-hell/bitcoin-is-king-constructing-a-balanced-portfolio-27Is there some interest in a solely trading and investing crypto podcast? No bullshit, just talking markets. There are and have been a lot of stock based trading tv segments, which were not unlike what a crypto based version would be. I think the main issue people have with investing shows and columns is sometimes investors would do far better doing the opposite of the advice offered. An so quality of "content" is likely the biggest determining factor as to whether those types of ventures are successful. I still think crypto currency prices could be manipulated. Especially on exchanges where commissions are 0% or exceedingly low. Crypto markets could provide investors trading options which do not exist on fiat based platforms. Lower volume and transactional rates could make it easier to manipulate prices for profit in ways which are not commonly found in stocks, bonds, etc. |
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I'm worried about Conor's cardio. It looked to me as if Conor was tired in round 1 against Floyd Mayweather. It takes a lot more energy to wrestle and grapple in MMA than it does to throw punches in a boxing ring. The big question for me will be whether or not Conor managed to solve his cardio issues. If Conor's cardio is bad he'll need to finish Khabib early, else he's guaranteed to lose a 5 round fight.
Khabib is doing well for someone who seemed on the verge of retiring not long ago. I would be interested to know what type of injuries Khabib had which made it seem as if he would be quitting soon & whether those injuries could factor into his fight with Conor. Odd thing there is people think Khabib was injured training at AKA - American Kickboxing Academy. But no Khabib's injuries came about as he was training out of his native dagestan.
There are many pictures on social media of Conor training with Dillon Danis. Danis showed he has a good heelhook / leg based submissions which are usually executed from the bottom. Its likely that Conor will be drilling those subs if he expects Khabib to out-wrestle him. That could be Conor's plan B if Khabib takes him down.
It seems like everyone got bored of MMA when Conor was gone. Now that he's returning people are talking again. That type of star power is something special Conor has not a lot of athletes do.
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One of the major challenges facing the world today is the issue of climate change. Like you are aware, the major contributing factor to this climate change is the emissions from fossil fuels and other non-renewable sources of energy.
In your opinion, how do you think the world can curb the problem of climate changes or global warming largely associated with carbon emissions? Don't forget to factor in feasibility and economics of the process as well. This is a good source for putting climate change and emissions in context: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/11/the-solution-to-climate-change-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-cars-or-coal/The emissions angle is exaggerated. Deforestation is the real cause of climate change. The way this works in practice is: trees function as "carbon sinks". Forests absorb and store carbon. Roughly 50% of the world's historical forests having been cut down, reduces the planet's capacity to absorb and store (sequester) carbon significantly. Afforestation -- reseeding and replanting the world's forests is likely our best first step towards combating climate change. Beyond that new types of concrete which absorb carbon and other measures might make a difference. It would be good if we could prevent future deforestation which would worsen climate change but the way things are going it doesn't appear likely that will happen. |
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A gold-backed currency guaranteed by blockchain. There's controversy over what constitutes a "gold backed currency". Some say for a currency to truly be "gold backed" requires a lawful guarantee that paper or electronic money can be exchanged for gold. The US dollar had this guarantee printed on it up until the 1970s I believe when that guarantee was removed. Others claim its sufficient for a currency to be backed by gold reserves like the USA holds in fort knox. The definition of "gold backed" needs clarification. This would prevent something like the fractional reserve system from occuring again where banks lend out 90% more than what they physically have. Sounds feasible?
There's nothing preventing those demographics with money and influence from lobbying to have false propaganda as standard curriculum instated. This could cause students to be indoctrinated into the view that fractional reserve banking is the best system for everyone. Few are aware of circumstances and regulation which contributed to the 08' financial crisis. Fewer still could describe what the specific issues were much less how to prevent them in the future. Public consciousness and memory are fickle things. |
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Does anyone remember how hard to hit Cody Garbrandt was when he fought Dominick Cruz? Seems like his defense is so much worse whenever he fights TJ Dillashaw. Almost like Cody doesn't respect TJ's power at all. That could have cost Cody the fight. What do you guys think about Mighty Mouse losing by SD?
I thought Henry Cejudo won rounds 2, 4 and 5. If Cejudo could find a way to improve @ riding people, controlling them on the ground & preventing them from getting back up, I think he could beat Demetrious Johnson decisively. Not certain what Demetrious Johnson's options are. Hopefully there won't be another immediate rematch. I think its better if Johnson has a couple of fights before he fights for the title again. If they fight again in 3 months without either of them improving or changing much, I think the outcome will be the same and it'll be pointless. |
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The pension crisis is pretty simple, there are not enough contributions to pay the pensions.
People live longer, contribute less and less and it's quite easy to see where this is going.
Bitcoin or some "ico" (really?) will not solve this, but an "ico" has the potential to destroy the entire system once for all.
What you need is one of those, a higher workers/retired ratio or higher contributions.
It's simple math, not magic. Bolded: exactly. What would happen if a corporation in the private sector tried to run a retirement plan the way governments do I wonder? Would it be shut down? There could be a substantial difference between how states and corporations run retirement plans to consider. I think there is potential for an ICO or a crypto currency offering a retirement plan based on the concept of compounding interest and a viable long term growth plan. There is a real need for it. Crypto could be better suited for that purpose than fiat. Especially crypto with a limited supply which would be guaranteed to not be overprinted or devalued. |
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I don't really understand why people are so fast on dismissing this huge energy consumption as FUD.
This is real, there are at least 3 million S9 or equivalent out there each running at ~ 1400W.
Simple math, no FUD!!! High crypto miner energy consumption could translate to large investment and funding towards so called "zero emissions" and "renewable" energy sources like hydroelectric power. Bitcoin miners are likely to represent a massive consumer base for industrial hydroelectric power worldwide. This could mean large piles of money are being thrown at hydroelectric power plants which will encourage the construction of more hydroelectric plants. It could be far better than money being thrown at coal, natural gas or oil powered power plants. The irony here is this study was funded by a Qatar based university. Qatar being one of the largest producers of oil and natural gas in the entire world means them funding "studies" complaining about emissions is like apple funding a study complaining about there being too many smartphones(iphones) and tablets(ipads) in the world. I think this is meant to attack the consumer base of hydroelectric power plants as they are a competitor to the oil and natural gas plants which Qatar powers. |
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If you guys haven't made your bets on the main event yet, then I suggest not watching this until you do... Anyway, it's another good breakdown as usual by Dan Hardy. So make that bet, watch the vid and regret making that bet. Lol.  UFC 227: Inside the Octagon - Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15F-nUMGY3oHere's a good breakdown of the main event by BJJ Scout. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LOvGZLAB3oDidn't notice much watching the weigh ins. Its been said Montel Jackson took this fight on two weeks notice. Late notice fights used to mean you'd bet on their opponent expecting them to not be well prepared. But lately the late notice hasn't made much of a difference & so that may no longer be the case. Polyana Viana is gorgeous. Ricky Simon may have officially weighed 134 pounds which could mean he's undersized for his weight class. |
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Back in May, reports surfaced that New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was developing a Bitcoin trading platform. This morning, it officially announced the creation of Bakkt, a new company that will help trade and convert the best known cryptocurrency to fiat money — government-backed legal tender.As one might expect from a new company with close ties to the NYSE, Bakkt has enlisted some big names already, including backing from Microsoft, Starbucks and BCG. Microsoft, for its part, will provide cloud infrastructure for the service. Even more compelling, however, is the involvement of Starbucks. After all, the coffee giant has played an outsized role in helping mainstream mobile payments among the U.S. population, it has worked with Square (which accepts Bitcoin) and it just announced a deal with Alibaba in China for coffee deliveries. The chain isn’t always the first to adopt payment solutions, but its involvement goes a long ways toward legitimizing technologies among the public. If played right, this could be the push Bitcoin as a payment system for mainstream consumers here in the States.
In a statement, Starbucks referred to itself as “the flagship retailer” involved in the project, hinting at the very real potential that the company is setting itself up to accept Bitcoin converted through the Bakkt system.“As the flagship retailer, Starbucks will play a pivotal role in developing practical, trusted and regulated applications for consumers to convert their digital assets into US dollars for use at Starbucks,” said Starbucks Payments VP Maria Smith said in the statement. “As a leader in Mobile Pay to our more than 15 million Starbucks Rewards members, Starbucks is committed to innovation for expanding payment options for our customers.” Bakkt’s implications go well beyond mobile payments, of course. As Fortune notes, the system could help attract investors who have been put off by Bitcoin’s extremely volatile nature. Among other things, it could help make the currency a safer choice for 401(k)s, IRAs and other retirement plans. That, in turn, could help propel Bitcoin toward wider Wall Street trading.https://techcrunch.com/2018/08/03/starbucks-drops-major-hint-at-plans-to-accept-bitcoin/ .... Purchasing a cup of coffee via bitcoin might materialize faster than anyone had thought. I like the idea of starbucks embracing bitcoin. It is known some starbucks function almost exactly like homeless shelters. Adopting bitcoin could put crypto currencies into the hands of where its needed in terms of helping the poor, the unbanked, those who can't afford the minimum balance on a bank account or have trouble obtaining debit cards or credit cards to make electronic transactions. Over the long term this could help people to find jobs to give them more options and opportunities which could help them to escape poverty and elevate their standard of living. Which in turn could help reduce crime and negative trends associated with violence. The point @ the bottom about making bitcoin a safer choice for 401k's, IRAs and retirement plans is interesting. I've wondered if bitcoin and crypto currencies in general could have future potential for retirement funds due to them being designed to appreciate in value over time. An asset which appreciates in value could help to offset increasingly higher costs associated with higher average lifespan. It could imply crypto has potential there. |
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A helicopter from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln hovers over an Iranian patrol ship during a transit through the Strait of Hormuz Tehran is threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for oil shipments from the Middle East, if Iranian exports are hampered. This will result in a huge loss of global crude supply and soaring prices.“The declared nominal throughput capacity of the Strait of Hormuz is about 14 oil tankers per day, or 17 million barrels per day, or about half of the world’s daily crude oil exports. If exports through it stop, the law of supply and demand would double oil prices to $160 per barrel,” Vladimir Rojankovski, investment analyst at Global FX, told RT. The analyst added that if the Strait is blocked for one or two months, oil traders could panic and buy out all available crude futures, sending prices to $250 per barrel. However, Rojankovski expressed doubt that Iran would do that since the area is highly militarized.Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is also the route for nearly all the liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the world’s largest exporter, Qatar. https://www.rt.com/businessIran has to be desperate to even suggest this. It threatens not only the united states but iran's neighbors and allies as well. Iran is about as strong militarily as iraq was when the united states invaded. Unless russia steps in and white knights for iran, they're at the mercy of the US and its allies in the region. The media spin here could be analysts and experts exaggerating iran's power & influence in pretending iran has the power to follow through on its threats. Some say Saddam Hussein talked tough to the USA as he never imagined americans would travel halfway around the world to invade iraq. Something similar could be occurring here where iran is in denial about circumstances and not doing a very good job as far as diplomacy or leadership goes. |
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Bethe Corriea fight is cancelled on Bethe's eye having complications after eye surgery.
I suspect Cody losing the 1st fight was bad karma. Team Alpha Male and Urijah Faber made up stories about TJ that weren't true. They said that TJ Dillashaw ended Chris Holdsworth's UFC career by hitting Holdsworth in the back of his head repeatedly in training. That was probably a lie as Chris Holdsworth said it wasn't true. They said other false things about TJ which could have played a role in Cody losing that fight.
There are probably easier fights to bet @ UFC 227 than Cody vs TJ.
No need to bet on difficult to predict fights when there are easier options.
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New study assesses tax and regulatory options to incentivize the development of “green” blockchain technologies and discourages use of polluting applicationsA study published in Energy Research & Social Science warns that failure to lower the energy use by Bitcoin and similar Blockchain designs may prevent nations from reaching their climate change mitigation obligations under the Paris Agreement. The study, authored by Jon Truby, PhD, Associate Professor, Director of the Centre for Law & Development, College of Law, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar, evaluates the financial and legal options available to lawmakers to moderate blockchain-related energy consumption and foster a sustainable and innovative technology sector. Based on this rigorous review and analysis of the technologies, ownership models, and jurisdictional case law and practices, the article recommends an approach that imposes new taxes, charges, or restrictions to reduce demand by users, miners, and miner manufacturers who employ polluting technologies, and offers incentives that encourage developers to create less energy-intensive/carbon-neutral Blockchain. “Digital currency mining is the first major industry developed from Blockchain, because its transactions alone consume more electricity than entire nations,” said Dr. Truby. “It needs to be directed towards sustainability if it is to realize its potential advantages. “Many developers have taken no account of the environmental impact of their designs, so we must encourage them to adopt consensus protocols that do not result in high emissions. Taking no action means we are subsidizing high energy-consuming technology and causing future Blockchain developers to follow the same harmful path. We need to de-socialize the environmental costs involved while continuing to encourage progress of this important technology to unlock its potential economic, environmental, and social benefits,” explained Dr. Truby.  Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer transaction verification is a polluting process, requiring machine hardware around the world to run at a high rate, 24 hours a day, producing vast amounts of heat and emissions. As a digital ledger that is accessible to, and trusted by all participants, Blockchain technology decentralizes and transforms the exchange of assets through peer-to-peer verification and payments. Blockchain technology has been advocated as being capable of delivering environmental and social benefits under the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. However, Bitcoin’s system has been built in a way that is reminiscent of physical mining of natural resources – costs and efforts rise as the system reaches the ultimate resource limit and the mining of new resources requires increasing hardware resources, which consume huge amounts of electricity. Putting this into perspective, Dr. Truby said, “the processes involved in a single Bitcoin transaction could provide electricity to a British home for a month – with the environmental costs socialized for private benefit. “Bitcoin is here to stay, and so, future models must be designed without reliance on energy consumption so disproportionate on their economic or social benefits.” The study evaluates various Blockchain technologies by their carbon footprints and recommends how to tax or restrict Blockchain types at different phases of production and use to discourage polluting versions and encourage cleaner alternatives. It also analyzes the legal measures that can be introduced to encourage technology innovators to develop low-emissions Blockchain designs. The specific recommendations include imposing levies to prevent path-dependent inertia from constraining innovation: - Registration fees collected by brokers from digital coin buyers.
- “Bitcoin Sin Tax” surcharge on digital currency ownership.
- Green taxes and restrictions on machinery purchases/imports (e.g. Bitcoin mining machines).
- Smart contract transaction charges.
According to Dr. Truby, these findings may lead to new taxes, charges or restrictions, but could also lead to financial rewards for innovators developing carbon-neutral Blockchain. --- Notes for editors The article is "Decarbonizing Bitcoin: Law and policy choices for reducing the energy consumption of Blockchain technologies and digital currencies,” Jon Truby, PhD. ( https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.06.009). It will appear in Energy Research & Social Science, volume 44 (2018) published by Elsevier. The research was supported by the Centre for Law and Development at the College of Law, Qatar University.Full text of the article is available to journalists upon request. To obtain copies, contact the Elsevier Newsroom at newsroom@elsevier.com. Journalists wishing to set up interviews should contact Craig Teall at c.teall@elsevier.com, or the author, Dr. Jon Truby, Associate Professor at the Centre for Law & Development, College of Law, Qatar University at jon.truby@qu.edu.qa. About Energy Research & Social Science Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side; and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. www.journals.elsevier.com/energy-research-and-social-scienceAbout Elsevier Elsevier is a global information analytics business that helps institutions and professionals advance healthcare, open science and improve performance for the benefit of humanity. Elsevier provides digital solutions and tools in the areas of strategic research management, R&D performance, clinical decision support and professional education, including ScienceDirect, Scopus, SciVal, ClinicalKey and Sherpath. Elsevier publishes over 2,500 digitized journals, including The Lancet and Cell, more than 38,000 e-book titles and many iconic reference works, including Gray's Anatomy. Elsevier is part of RELX Group, a global provider of information and analytics for professionals and business customers across industries. www.elsevier.comhttps://www.elsevier.com/about/press-releases/research-and-journals/energy-intensive-bitcoin-transactions-pose-a-growing-environmental-threat .... This is one of those rare cases where a person might deduce something is fake news simply by paying attention to detail. The first indication this "study" could be fake news is its faulty claims of bitcoin mining being an "emission" intensive process. Large scale industrial crypto mining operations utilize hydroelectric energy which is considered a zero emissions, clean and renewable, source of power. There aren't any major bitcoin miners who utilize coal or oil as a power source and so bitcoin mining could be considered an environmentally friendly industry despite its high energy consumption. Near the bottom we see the following notice which complicates things. The research was supported by the Centre for Law and Development at the College of Law, Qatar University.It appears this "study" was funded by a university in Qatar. For those who know the middle easts reputation for oil production, Qatar is one of the oil production capitals of the world. Oil based energy produces emissions and so Qatar claiming about emissions is a bit ironic if not hypocritical. This could represent an indirect way for Qatar and oil producing nations to attack the consumer base of hydroelectric energy. The part about this study being "peer reviewed" also somewhat funny. |
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Liabilities and cost of living are increasing @ a greater pace than wages for the majority of people. This negative trend makes it more difficult for people, on average, to afford real estate annually. Every year real estate, university education, healthcare and assorted expenses become more difficult to afford.
This trend could make real estate a bad investment as it could imply demand will decrease yearly on the dwindling buying power of consumers. Decreases in demand could translate to lower prices being necessary to sustain purchasing volume.
There are potential points which could offset this trend. Demand from foreign investors is typically high. There are many wealthy demographics from foreign countries who wish to buy land or real estate and legally immigrate to america. This is likely one key figure preventing a second US housing bubble from collapse.
Home and real estate development also has not kept pace with population growth. This makes real estate a somewhat scarce commodity which also potentially inflates price. This could imply that real estate is overvalued and there will be a significant price correction if or when real estate development keeps pace with population growth.
This is a tough topic to breakdown and analyze. What makes it even harder is practically no one in the media giving a fair or objective overview on things.
Has everyone seen the volcanic eruption in hawaii? I've been looking at real estate prices there thinking there could be a significant price reduction for land near an active volcano with real lava. But it seems even there, prices are not decreasing. Real estate markets are crazy. I would be very careful if I were a buyer.
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Capital gains taxes can exert a positive influence on markets via providing incentive for investors to HODL long term to avoid paying higher taxes associated with short term day trading. An example of this are cases where capital gains taxes of 20% might be paid if an asset is bought and sold in less than 12 months. With capital gains taxes of 10% being paid if an asset is held longer than 12 months. Variable capital gains taxes can encourage long term holds which decreases volatility and increases price stability.
In that capital gains taxes which are well structured can have positive effects on markets and currencies.
That said what happens to the money collected from capital gains? If all of it was spent towards giving large corporations unfair tax cuts and subsidizing the cost of the biggest players in the private sector, would that be an effective or fair utilization of tax revenues?
In theory good tax policy could help small business rather than providing benefits to the largest and wealthiest businesses. But in the real world the opposite is usually true which can reduce the effectiveness of taxation policy and defeat the purpose of legislating tax laws.
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Financially strapped cities and states can’t afford the retirement payouts they made to public workers years ago and The Wall Street Journal reports that by one estimate they are short $5 trillion, an amount that is roughly equal to the output of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy. Many retirement funds could face insolvency unless governments increase taxes, divert funds or persuade workers to relinquish money they are owed, the Journal warned. “Uncertainty over public pensions is one reason some Americans are reaching retirement age on shaky financial ground. For this group, median incomes, including Social Security and retirement fund receipts, haven’t risen in years. They have high average debt, and are often using savings for their children’s educations and to care for their elderly parents,” WSJ.com explained. “A technology-led stock market boom in the late 1990s produced a brief period of surpluses in pensions, according to figures from Pew, before deficits began to creep higher in the mid 2000s. Deficits accelerated following the 2008 financial crisis, which caused steep losses for many funds just as large numbers of baby boomers began to retire,” the Journal explained. “State and local pensions lost roughly $35 billion in assets between 2008 and 2009, according to Pew. Liabilities, meanwhile, ballooned by more than $100 billion a year, widening the difference between the amount owed to retirees and assets on hand. Not even a nine-year bull market in stocks could close that gap.” Meanwhile, Maine has adopted a risk-sharing plan for municipal employees that participate in the system starting the fiscal year than began July 1. Under the plan, the risks of investment gains and losses aren’t just assumed by taxpayers, but shared between local governments, their employees and retirees. Most U.S. public pensions were fully funded as recently as 2000, but the collapse of the internet bubble and the Great Recession caused by the financial crisis of 2008 -- combined in some cases with years of contribution shortfalls and unfunded benefit increases -- resulted in pension debt exceeding $1 trillion, Bloomberg reported Between 2003 and 2013 the cost of making required pension payments almost doubled, according to a 2017 report from the Pew Charitable Trusts. In response, some pensions have adopted formal cost-sharing mechanisms, adjusting contributions or benefits, instead of making unplanned benefit cuts or contribution increases. Almost 30 defined benefit pension plans in 17 states use cost-sharing mechanisms to manage risk, according to the Pew report. Some states, such as Illinois and New York, have constitutional or statutory prohibitions on changing retiree benefits. Maine capped contribution rates by municipalities at 12.5 percent and 9 percent for employees, giving both parties certainty about how high costs would go to make up for investment losses. If pension losses exceed the capped contribution rates, retiree cost of living adjustments are reduced. Maine’s local governments and employees share in investment gains and losses at a 55 percent to 45 percent split. Had Maine’s plan been in effect after the financial crisis, contribution rates would have increased to 12.5 percent and 9 percent and held there for five years. Retirees would have had a 30 percent annual reduction in cost of living adjustment for seven years, according to Gene Kalwarski, chief executive officer at Cheiron, a McLean, Virginia-based actuarial and financial consultancy. “Under a traditional plan, you have one lever that deals with something like a recession, that’s the employer contribution," Kalwarski said. “Here we’ve got the COLAs as well as the member contributions that reduce what otherwise would have been an employer contribution spike." When the markets rebound and investment gains exceed the assumed investment return, the COLA would increase until reaching a cap of 2.5 percent. Further gains would allow employers and employees to reduce contributions for services performed by current members when the plan is fully-funded, to a minimum of about 14 percent, 7.7 percent for employers and 6.2 percent for employees. https://www.newsmax.com/finance/personal-finance/wsj-pension-japan-economy/2018/07/31/id/874780/.... Definitely a critical issue in the years to come. Here we see a market with future potential for ICO tokens and crypto currencies. Crypto currencies like bitcoin, which are deflationary in nature, and built around producing long term value, could represent an ideal vehicle for retirement or pension funds as they are designed to appreciate in value over time. This inflation in value could help a pension fund to stave off additional liability costs in terms of people living longer lifespans or being in better overall health. "Be greedy when others are fearful," is one investment quotation people love to quote. There is a lot of fear in pension plans and retirement funds which could mean its a good area to be greedy in atm. Practically everything said about why pensions and retirement plans are failing is false. There are valid and easy to explain reasons for why these things fail and the real reasons are never mentioned. |
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