You seem to want to assert that the S2F model is not really telling us anything, which surely is not the case.
I didn’t say that, and you’re not listening, and you seem to put words in my mouth. Read what I’ve posted. Would you say then that S2F can predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with close to 100% accuracy for the next 50 years? That's quite the refrain from you Wind_FURY to so frequently be suggesting that I need to read your posts and your meaning better, and if you believe that there is some kind of more clear meaning, perhaps the burden remains upon you to clarify what you mean a wee bit moar better. I said no model can forever be relevant because the world is unpredictable and chaotic. I did not say it was never relevant. Answer the question. Can S2F predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with an accuracy close to 100% for the next 50 years? Yes, or no? Even “Moore’s Law” is losing some relevance. , and of course, it should be data driven, so the data may well inform it in terms of how much of a slope or a curve to project into the future based on data of actual performance. If you completely poo poo the currently valid and relevant models, then you are likely detached from reality, and of course there is no problem to critique them or to proclaim which ways your assessments deviates from the models. On the other hand, some folks completely ignore what seem to be currently valid and relevant models because they want to proclaim their own detached from reality announcement that bitcoin is going to do x, y or z.. and I say: "what the fuck are you basing that on, besides pure wishful thinking?" I never said it wasn’t. I was merely asking you if the S2F Model could continue to “predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with an accuracy close to 100% for the next 50 years”? I don't know how we would give any shits about if the model might be anywhere close to 100% valid for 50 years in the future, when I surely have never said either of those things. For example, I said that it was currently amongst the strongest of models when accompanied by concepts of the 4-year fractal and the consideration of exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.. so in that sense I am not even asserting such stock to flow model to be even close to 100% accurate even in the near future and so inferentially we likely would need to see how a variety of matters play out if we are using various models in the coming 50 years.. yet with any model, surely we can have a frame of reference that might take us out 50 years or more, but need to adapt along the way too... based on how new facts play out along the way. OK, let’s simplify the question. As smart as you are, would you say that the S2F Model would never be invalidated in the next 50 years, and that we should still take it seriously? Yes, or no? It doesn’t require a long post from you. I see no reason to completely ignore stock to flow, four-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, but I could see why someone might want to supplement such models with ideas of elongation of the cycles, shifting of the curves or some other reasonable analysis that bounces ideas and data of the already existing credible model theories.. but complete rejections and assertion that those models are broken seem to be nearly complete pie in the sky bullshit that sometimes revolve around ego aspirations rather than attempts to really grapple with on-the-ground bitcoin price dynamics.
But at what point until we say that the model has been invalidated? Human psychology, and behavior has always influenced all markets. I believe no predictive model could project that. It seems that I already addressed this, but maybe I can try to frame my answer in a different way? I think that the model is currently valid and amongst the best of explainers, so I am not sure how much need there is going down potentially BIG ass assertions, and maybe you should come to your own assertions regarding what points might either make the model invalid or needing to be tweaked. I see a whole hell of a lot of people in the last month or two wanting to completely throw out the model as if it does not mean anything so those kinds of determinations seem way too premature.. but whatever, do what you like. PlanB had already asserted that he expects that the model is setting forth an expectation of a $100k average price for this whole halvening period, and we are just short of half way through the period. So if there were to be underperformance within the halvening period, or maybe when we get further down the road, we might see that $100k is not going to be met... but at this point, we are ONLY less than half way through the period, so why is there any kind of need to get too excited about invalidating the model.. and maybe some might use the model to project a lower expected average, and would reaching a $40k average? or a $60k or a $80k average invalidate the model or just cause it to need to be tweaked in some way? There may be some variance in thought on that, but still seems a bit premature when we are less than half way through this period and there is no real reason to conclude that we are not on track, even if there seems to currently be some underperformance in terms of expectations where the price should currently be or even underexpectations in the average price for the halvening period so far to be underperforming. Are you debating that it would OK for PlanB to move the goal posts everytime the model is in danger to be invalidated? |
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Plus Chain Anals’ tracking of Lightning transactions actually helps increase the liquidity in the network and helps it scale, and makes it function better.  Just like scammers and governments support the Tor network by running their own compromised nodes  As long as enough scammers and competing governments join, and as long as users are aware of the risks, none of this stops the network. But there’s a big difference between routing traffic in TOR, and routing transactions in the Lightning Network. Eventually, a node operator will need to take opportunity costs into account, and must be incentivized to maintain “staking” his/her capital. Chain Anals’ increasing need to montior Lightning = demand for Bitcoin. Plus with their business model, they should be telling everyone to use Bitcoin. No users = no transactions to monitor = no Chain Anals. |
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I can't disagree with most of what Andreas said, which I perceive to be advocating Bip32 HD wallets over single private keys stored on paper. He does specifically endorse the use of a purpose-built hardware wallet over other methods of generating seed phrases.
I do partially take issue with his statements about air-gapped PCs with open source OSs, however. Again, he seemed to be specifically opposed to their use to generate single private keys for printing, he never specifically opposed their use for generating seed phrases. Although I think using a properly air-gapped laptop/pc with an open-source OS is still quite safe, I tend to agree with Andreas that it takes a bit of technical know-how that could lead to mistakes by newbies.
Tin-foil hats on. Andreas Antonopoulos is secretly being sponsored by a hardware wallet manufacturer to go around the world, do his talks about Bitcoin, and to tell newbies that “paper wallets bad, buy hardware wallets good”. |
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Hello,
is there any difference between a trade with 5.000$ with 1x leverage and on the other hand 100$ with 50x leverage?
The only difference I see is the liquidation price of course. But is there any other differnce?
Thank you all, Frank
No difference unless you want to throw your $100 away, and which could have been better if saved in Bitcoin. Nothing great was built overnight. If we look at when you posted your question, and the current mini-crash, I believe your $100 with 50x leverage gamble didn’t last you more than a day. |
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In my country, people use our local fiat for everyday life, of course, because it's usually the only currency accepted in shops and other places, but I don't know anyone who actually keeps savings in local fiat. Our inflation rate is at around 8%, and add to that the fact that every 7 years or so something very bad happens and the currency loses value by 2x or so.
It’s not on what the current level of inflation is, it’s simply HODL Bitcoin because you can’t trust the cabal that runs the whole economic-financial-industrial complex. We plebs are plebs because they are rigging the system against you, making you poor, your descendants poor. HODLing Bitcoin is the cure.
Cryptos are quite popular in my country because inflation isn't greatly managed, and those who are more traditional simply store savings in EUR or the USD. Given that lira is currently experiencing a 36% inflation rate, I think it's perfectly reasonable that people try to move to other currencies, and Erdogan saying otherwise won't stop them.
Merely converting from a cabal, to another cabal. |
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OP, I respect Michael Saylor, “for now”, as a HODLer, but don’t send a newbie his videos. Plus someone should first teach Michael Saylor when to buy the DIP. Hahaha.
Send a newbie videos/information that would make him truly understand how the protocol works, and how the network is holding itself together. If he/she truly understood, let him/her decide if the network has real value for himself/herself.
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Countries will end up in a worse position though if they don't use their own currency (and switch to another country's fiat).
Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies lack the throughput to allow mass adoption as a currency so far imo.
In addition no country that will like to adopt a strange currency fully, because the development of a country started with it's value of currency, from my perspective bitcoin adoption of countries doesn't deprived them not to value their own currency, no country can purposely Abandoned it's Fiat currency and adopt a currency that is not really or fully in line with it's currency, except the country want to adventure into hardship and also experience lack of infrastructure that will enable them to undergoes a tangible project for better development of their country. But the point is, no one in the government is truly taking care of your self-interest, or should be taking care of your self-interest except yourself. They’re making you poor because of currency debasement, what should you do? Buy the DIP and? Who cares if your country accepts Bitcoin as legal tender or not. From our standpoint, it doesn’t need to be legal tender to be used by people as a currency. |
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I know how to trade about the demand and supply thing based on what you have experienced I think it was a good page since as per your experience it looks like they are good and I supposed you learned from them I really think some people too especially newbie would be able to enjoy it, thanks for sharing. However not all people are the same, some people might not understand it or will find hard to understand it and some people prefer by reading.
Everyone knows how to trade. Open an account, deposit your coins, then buy and sell your coins away to the counter-party. What 90% of “traders” don’t know is how to trade profitably. We plebs are always outsmarted by the whale-cummulators. |
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Quote the whole post for context. We are using an air-gapped computer in that example. I personally have both physical, and digital back ups of my keys for my cold storage. I feel more secure with my digital back ups because I have them encrypted.
I don't understand. Could you explain why the existence of encrypted digital keys should make you feel more secure and comfortable especially considering the fact that they are practically useless without the secret key that is required to decrypt them? The problem with the decryption key is that you can't make it encrypted because it is pointless from a security perspective, you also don't want it on digital media because that only increases an attack surface. In short, having created more digital copies of your keys, you also must keep more physical copies of your keys to access your digital ones. The more backups you create, the more likely you will lose access to one of them, which may result in losses. We’re talking about a paper wallet generated in an air-gapped computer. Everything is done OFFLINE, so it would be impossible for an attacker to gain access to your private keys generated. To back up your private keys, print them, write them down, or copy them in a text file stored in USB, then encrypt them in case someone finds/steals the USB. |
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most exchanges witnessed large inflows of bitcoin deposits which have left a large deposited amount of Bitcoin to push the price of Bitcoin to the next all-time high in the early days of this year 2022.
Although there isn't necessarily a relationship here but these two are contradictory ideas. People deposit bitcoin on exchanges to sell which means you can't use the deposits as an indication of price rise. I say there is no solid relationship because you don't actually know if it is deposits or if it is the exchange topping up their own wallets from their cold storage addresses that aren't known to whatever service you are using that is coming up with those numbers. Also making a deposit doesn't have to mean selling, it may be to buy some shitcoins specially since some of the exchanges are mainly altcoin exchanges. OR it might also be used as collateral to trade Bitcoin, and/or shitcoins on leverage. OP, I know it’s frustrating, but we plebs should be doing is, when in doubt, zoom out. Save some of your salary for buying the DIP, and HODL. If Bitcoin can’t surge to six digits during this halving cycle, then it will be during the next cycle. ZOOM OUT. |
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I would also recommend copying the keys in a text file, encrypt that text file, make multiple back ups to the encrypted text file then keep them in different locations. I would not recommend this. By doing this, you have negated the primary benefit of a paper wallet, in that it is completely non digital. This is no longer a paper wallet - rather it is an encrypted software wallet with a paper back up. Quote the whole post for context. We are using an air-gapped computer in that example. I personally have both physical, and digital back ups of my keys for my cold storage. I feel more secure with my digital back ups because I have them encrypted. Plus for real safety and security, especially if someone HODLs millions in Bitcoin, use general computer hardware. Owning a hardware wallet makes you a target. |
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His basic course for newbies and the Bitcoin course is the same as the courses you can find everywhere.
Do you still think his video courses make sense? I mean, is it worthwhile to keep up with the Butterfly Effect and his new uploads? So far, I've finished watching his origin courses, including The Futures of Trading, and his channel has the most comprehensive and step-by-step walkthrough in terms of learning the art of T.A. out of all T.A courses on YouTube. Basic trading/technical analysis courses for newbies are all the same, or almost the same. Anyone can research and download manuals, and watch YouTube videos. They migght even be idea copied from more popular traders like Twitter’s @EmperorBTC and @Bloodgood, who are best friends and have made millions together.
I'm familiar with @EmperorBTC, and I even downloaded his trading manual to see which T.A has the same concept and which one makes a lot more sense. I never expected T.A to be so broad, and it appears that it will take me years before I can apply it in the real market? It might be years for some people, mere months for smarter people. I am included in the “years before I apply it effectively” people. That’s why I stopped “trading”. The solution for me is, Buy the DIP and HODL. |
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What do you guys think of BTC in 2022?
I believe Bitcoin in 2022 would be the newbies of 2020’s halving cycle sell their shitcoins, and to start actually HODLing their capital/savings in Bitcoin. Would that make Bitcoin surge to six digits? No, but it’s a preperation for the next halving cycle’s surge.  |
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Ask yourself this.
If you were a millionaire, making millions of profits every year. Would you waste your time teaching absolute noobs for pennies? It takes time to write ebook, make videos, answer questions, send trading signals. Why bother when you can make a few million doing just trading yourself?
This is why most of these courses are scams and waste of time.
His basic course for newbies and the Bitcoin course is the same as the courses you can find everywhere. They migght even be idea copied from more popular traders like Twitter’s @EmperorBTC and @Bloodgood, who are best friends and have made millions together. |
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Was just having the convo of safest storage methods with some buddies and an hour later this popped up on my YouTube - https://youtu.be/iNHVbDtUL0EI’m having a hard time understanding if he means for the general public/ non experts (me) or even for someone like himself or Gmaxwell , for example ? I had always been taught that paper wallets are the purest form of cold storage. He’s advocating for hardware wallets (even over a correctly established air-gapped pc) , but there are sone risks they pose that paper does not, right? He’s stating paper wallet tech is simply outdated, but I don’t see how? As always appreciate any insight you Mr Robots can provide! A paper wallet generated from an air-gapped computer, and the private keys secured properly is I believe just as safe and secure as a hardware wallet. I would also recommend copying the keys in a text file, encrypt that text file, make multiple back ups to the encrypted text file then keep them in different locations. |
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I’m not trying to nit-pick or anything like that, but I believe Bitcoin’s birthday is actually on January 8. Nevertheless, Happy Birthday Bitcoin! May the world be kinder to you in your teenage years, and may those hormones not disturb the normal cycles during the next halving. |
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What I have just known is that the world is not perfect. Like someone saying bitcoin has no value and many other wrong opinions about certain things. If I am the president of a country, I will support the fiat we are using even if their is inflation. Just that people have to know the right way, that fiat will always devalue and never appreciate over long term but depreciate.
There’s nothing wrong in asking your people to help save the current financial system by not removing all trust in the State’s legal tender. BUT can we truly trust those people not scamming their own people? If you have a feasible fall back/back up available, HODL that. |
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President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that Turks should keep all their savings in lira and that recent exchange rate volatility was largely under control after the lira weakened sharply in the last two months. "I want all my citizens to keep their savings in our own money, to run all their business with our own money, and I recommend this," Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul. " Let's not forget this: as long as we don't take our own money as a benchmark, we are doomed to sink. The Turkish Lira, our money, that is what we will go forward with. Not with this foreign currency, that foreign currency." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-calls-turks-keep-all-savings-lira-2021-12-31/Who should be blamed for “that”, President Erdogan? You want everyone to hold the Turkish Lira, while your cabal inflate and deflate the currency according to your “mood”. Bitcoin is the back up/fall back that we need. |
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The government doesn't need to ask permission to enter the network, and it also doesn't need permission to take away your bitcoin.
How can it take away MY Bitcoin “without permission”? 1. they can take away your access to your bitcoin. a. arrest you, put you in a cell with no computer for life b. kill you, call it an accident by saying they thought you had a gun in your hand c. destroy your computer equipment/devices holding the private keys They still have not taken away my Bitcoin, and put it in their custody.
2. they can take your bitcoin without your permission.
a. raid your home when you are not there and seize your devices and move the coin
b. have a warrant when you are there, they dont need your permission then
c. arrest you, and force you to comply. 'agree under protest/duress' is not the same as giving permission
d. destroy your equipment
But first they would have to be sure that I really HODL Bitcoin, and how much. What if I have just $50.00 in Bitcoin? Will they raid my home? They should raid Roger Ver’s home. OR I can have a wallet with some Bitcoins, I give them that, and never tell them my cold storage. The point is the user has custody over his/her own money through Bitcoin. |
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I believe many posters in the topic also have not truly understood that increasing Inflation + Price Controls = longer, deeper and more volatile Economic Depressions. We should research what happened to the Soviet Union.
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