Care to place a bet on that?
I don't get why you guys always want to bet on price. We have exchanges that let you do just that. |
|
|
|
Just remember the y axis is different for the two series on the bottom, so the crossover is arbitrary. See the longer term chart for more perspective: http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.pngThere is certainly a change happening though. |
|
|
|
i understand all of the terminology. i dont understand what point he is trying to make.
at one point he claims that prices are random and that is their nature, which is a joke of a claim. then he claims that he can find "coded" information in previous prices. confusingly, he also used similar terms when trying to spout the EMH, which is contradictory
get off the bandwagon, and on your bike
I'm not on a bandwagon, just tired of people coming to an analysis thread to complain about analysis Never take any advice in these forums without a few pounds of salt. |
|
|
|
straight to zero, of course  edit: Currently, results look like normal distribution...
...centred roughly at the current price with a bias to slightly lower values in the centre of weight, but with a more developed tail on the up side this is a really good model. the normal distribution is a probabilistic representation. i wonder how one would go about calculating the skew? Skew = (mean - median ) / (standard deviation) |
|
|
|
i have no idea what that block of rambling is suppose to prove, other than to convince yourself that your methods have validity. it was not clear at all what point you were trying to make, and it was irrelevant to the disucssion: my post was in response to the post claiming that TA works because it is a self fulfilling prophecy. while the premise is sound, in practice, most don't do TA, and those who do, don't do TA exactly the same, so it cannot self-fulfill. anyway i hope i have showed you how it is possible to get at information that may be 'coded' into the price, that others do not have access to, that creates a profitable information asymmetry between players. you have not shown that. i have reread your post a few times trying to figure out what your point is in case i'm missing something, but it seems like you are just throwing together random stuff together to try to support your claim. reminds me of this quote which is wayyyyyy ironic "The trend is evident to a man who has an open mind and reasonably clear sight, for it is never wise for a speculator to fit his facts to his theories." -Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Maybe try looking up some of the terminology you don't understand. It's pretty clear to me. |
|
|
|
A B.S. in physics means that you know a little bit about all of physics but nothing very well.
A wise man doesn't stop learning once he stops attending classes. You shouldn't make assumptions about strangers, they give away your ideals. No a wise man doesn't (and since I am working on my graduate degree now that 'ideal' you hint at me having has not yet taken root). However most people do. And trusting in something with a complicated name that YOU don't understand because someone says they got a B.S. in physics is a sure way to get burned (as proven today). Especially when a physics degree does not directly prepare you for that complicated thing. Good points. However, if you admit you don't understand what he is talking about, so you don't really have much to add besides reminding people not to take internet forums as gospel. Well understanding the concept and correctly implementing it are different things. Stop making assumptions about me that I did not say. I said YOU. Because 99% of the people on this forum do not understand it. Oh, so you're making assumptions about me . Get a life dude. We don't need you to babysit us. |
|
|
|
Really old stuff. Well, by now we made a deal. The Federal Reserve will buy and deliver us 300 tons till 2020. In return we will not talk about the missing 1236.  Sounds like a deal those days?! Greetings from Germany.  Sorry dude, but we're broke. Greetings from America. Actually, that's neither a sufficient or a partial answer to the mystery. The German gold is and always was THEIRS. It was a physical product warehoused here. To our knowledge, it could not ever have been sold 100 times to 100 people, as we know has recently happened with some of the supposed 'stored gold'. So we DON'T KNOW WHAT WENT ON. I know I read somewhere the Fed has been loaning out gold to short sellers, but I'm to lazy to look it up because I don't have much interest in gold. However, I believe it's likely gone. |
|
|
|
Really old stuff. Well, by now we made a deal. The Federal Reserve will buy and deliver us 300 tons till 2020. In return we will not talk about the missing 1236. Sounds like a deal those days?! Greetings from Germany. Sorry dude, but we're broke. Greetings from America. |
|
|
|
Ugh, this is the worst part about going to sleep, having to figure out what price I should place my buy orders
every 1% down to what you think might be the minimum price... adjust the size of the orders to invest as much as you want That'd be helpful if I had any clue what the minimum price would be ;p You'll never get that right, which is why you go to the extra effort to get a decent average price no matter where it bottoms. |
|
|
|
I didn't outline any pennants, but it looks good so far with the bounce to $118. |
|
|
|
Ugh, this is the worst part about going to sleep, having to figure out what price I should place my buy orders
every 1% down to what you think might be the minimum price... adjust the size of the orders to invest as much as you want |
|
|
|
A B.S. in physics means that you know a little bit about all of physics but nothing very well.
A wise man doesn't stop learning once he stops attending classes. You shouldn't make assumptions about strangers, they give away your ideals. No a wise man doesn't (and since I am working on my graduate degree now that 'ideal' you hint at me having has not yet taken root). However most people do. And trusting in something with a complicated name that YOU don't understand because someone says they got a B.S. in physics is a sure way to get burned (as proven today). Especially when a physics degree does not directly prepare you for that complicated thing. Good points. However, if you admit you don't understand what he is talking about, so you don't really have much to add besides reminding people not to take internet forums as gospel. |
|
|
|
Those mega red candles on the recent graph are massive and I am cautiously optimistic that if the market can absorb such huge volumes without causing a massive slide then we won't see a repeat of bubble 1.0. The big money came in from 50-100. So maybe lower we must go, as orderbook weight is shifting to the sell side.  It doesn't look so bad if you zoom out a bit:  |
|
|
|
I should also say that I don't think a B.S. in physics gives you anywhere near what is required to develop fractal or Fibonacci or whatever analysis on bitcoins.
To do this well, in my opinion, you would need a PhD in Finance with a background heavy in algorithmic techniques.
In computer science we call that type of analysis data mining. It is the process of modeling data using a variety of methods in order to make accurate predictions. And no, you don' t need a PhD in finance to do analysis like that. Physicists developed the mathematical basis of most data mining techniques, as they needed it to extract models from piles of experimental data. Mendelbrot's fractals and Fibonacci's sequences (and many other contributions) we developed by mathematicians studying nature and are widely applied mathematics techniques that finance has adopted. Data mining and signal processing techniques are well known and understood by many more people than the dollar jockeys. A B.S. in physics means that you know a little bit about all of physics but nothing very well.
A wise man doesn't stop learning once he stops attending classes. You shouldn't make assumptions about strangers, they give away your ideals. |
|
|
|
Incredible volumes. I remember when 10kUSD would move this market. Now we see a 2.5million sell off and we creep lower.
But nothing's changed. We'll be in single digits soon  |
|
|
|
|
Still too much underlying volatility for a decisive move. We may get wild swings though if someone tries to pick a direction.
|
|
|
|
Mother nature doesn't like singularity , that's why you don't see it, ever .
Except, um, black holes? Black holes are nonsense, because infinite gravity is nonsense (literally a meaningless string of words). /OT blackholes dont have infinite gravity. They have infinite density because they have no volume. So even if they only weighed as much as a feather they would still have infinite density. Infinite density for this reason doesn't mean infinite gravity, since the amount of gravity given off by an object is a function of its mass not its density. Infinite is just a way for mathematicians to say I give up.  Exactly. You can't have projective geometry without the points at infinity. Infinity is a useful concept that has been very rigorously studied. However, I do agree physicists do use it to throw their hands up. |
|
|
|
Your y axis isn't proportional at all...
Ehhhhhh??
log scale |
|
|
|
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127? |
|
|
|
I don't think market makers are a solution to the problem you see. Market making might reduce some liquidity spikes, but it wont stop the big price swings. First of all, the function of a market maker is to provide liquidity and reduce the bid/ask spread. Second, a market maker has to be nimble. A market maker that tries to block price swings by putting up big walls is just going to lose a lot of money.
A market maker with a lot of bitcoins can MAKE a lot of money by putting up walls to prevent the price from changing too fast. Consider what I'm doing with my meager stash of bitcoins, then imagine what would happen if someone with 1000 times as many bitcoins did similar. The price around $145 as I write this. I currently have buy orders for 0.5 bitcoins at every $1 increment from $100 to $141. I have sell orders for 0.5 bitcoins at every $1 increment from $145 to $200. Whenever one of my buy orders executes, I immediately place a sell order $3 higher. Whenever a sell order executes, I immediately place a buy order $3 lower. As long as the trading range stays between $100 and $200, I make $1.50 (after commissions) on every buy/sell pair. If it goes outside of this range, I wait for it to return. History says it will return. I haven't been trading this method for long, but it looks like I could average at least $5 per day, or $1825 per year, on an investment currently worth about $7200. That's 25% return on investment per year. Might turn out to be more. Now imagine the effect someone with 10,000 times as many bitcoins, putting 100 BTC buy and sell walls at every $1 increment from $10 to $1000. They would probably not make nearly the same return, because their action would dramatically reduce the volatility. That would ruin things for us day traders, but would make Bitcoin a viable alternative for housewives in Argentina, which is awesome because it makes my "buy and hold" stash MUCH more valuable! No, with 10k as many bitcoins, their actions would add enough liquidity that a whale would eat them and they would be royally fucked. What you are doing is not without risk, as you acknowledge by restricting the range you are willing to trade. "A whale would eat them?" What does that mean? Please explain. I had to limit the trading range because I have a limited number of bitcoins. When the price goes above $200, all my assets dedicated to this system are tied up in fiat. Then I must simply wait for the next crash to buy back in. I know there are risks to my system: 1. The price of Bitcoin could go below my trading range and stay there forever. I'm left fully invested in bitcoins that have little value. This is the same risk as "buy and hold." 2. The price of Bitcoin could go above my trading range and never crash back down. I don't actually lose anything, as I still have the fiat. This is the same risk as not investing, except that my reserve stash of coins goes up in value. 3. The exchange could fold and not return my fiat and/or bitcoins. I choose this method because I believe Bitcoin is most likely to continue to show extreme volatility around an aggressive uptrend. The best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior. I was interrupted while writing this post by a flash crash, from $146 to $137.5 to $142.8 in 9 minutes. I'm still testing my algorithm with manual trading at this point. I closed out 7 open trade pairs and opened 3 new ones. It's good to know that my assumptions are still valid. I also choose it because price stability is good for Bitcoin. If lots of people start taking advantage of the volatility, we can make Bitcoin much more viable. A whale is a large trader. When a large trader wants to take a position, they wait for a large enough portion of what they want to be available on the order book. This helps them to make their trade without creating the types of trading patterns that TA can pick up on. If the TAs catch on to you before you trade a good chunk of what you want to move, they will move it against you. I'm wasn't dishing on your methods. In fact, it's essentially what I do with my bot. I just don't believe the risk/reward ratio would stay low enough at the 10k BTC level for it to be worth it. But, now that we're here, I'll warn you that you're competing with bots who can automatically set up the new bids and asks when an order is taken. Without some type of automation, you'll be missing out on most of the profits to be had. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
