While I believe that the initial floor of $2 a couple of months ago, and the following slow rises to $3 or so are justifiable based upon fundemental metrics related to the bitcoin economy; the most recent spike to $6+ is unfounded and indicative of a rising mania. The growth of the bitcoin economy simply hasn't had the time to keep up with that kind of runnup.
Doesn't that assume that the "floor" of $2 wasn't an overcorrection to the downside? Whatever the "proper" price of BTC is, market prices almost always overshoot, both up and down. Yes, I made such an assumption. I have no evidence that can reasonablely support this position, but nor is there any evidence to support the position that $2 was an overcorrection. There simply isn't enogh data to make such a determination, and there cannot be.
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While I believe that the initial floor of $2 a couple of months ago, and the following slow rises to $3 or so are justifiable based upon fundemental metrics related to the bitcoin economy; the most recent spike to $6+ is unfounded and indicative of a rising mania. The growth of the bitcoin economy simply hasn't had the time to keep up with that kind of runnup.
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Yes, the end is nigh. The movie is true, and the world as you know it will come to an end in December 2012.
Things you can do now to make the transition:
- Encourage your MPs, Senators and Representatives to put money into Research and the Sciences. We need spaceships and arks urgently. - Join a religious organisation (if you're not already, if you are, be sure to attend weekly) to prepare your soul for the challenges ahead. - Be kind to as many people as you can, for in troubling times, the effort you make now to improve the lives of others may save your life then. - Get to know your community and neighbourhood, as they will go through the same challenges as you. - Share your knowledge freely and to the world, so that others too may be better prepared. It will be lonely without fellow survivors. - Remain Calm.
I have to note here, that these recommendations are valid regardless of the accuracy of the predictive power of a single, pre-iron age society.
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(BTW world's most diverse country is India, no western society is even close)
Aww, man! I knew that and didn't even think about it! Good show.
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Why would you give it back? They donated it to his campaign under the false impression that he shared their ideologies. That's their error, why compound it by giving it back to them so that they can use it? Why not use it for the campaign? That's not to mention the sheer complexity of giving back a campaign donation to a federal campaign. That is a rediculous idea from the start. If you were a naive RP supporter, and are no longer naive and not a RP supporter, then I'm 16 and sexy. I'm calling bullshit. I was a RP supporter... Till I found out he was a closet racist. Sorry can't have a closet racist as my President, running the most worlds most diversified country... FDR was a closet racist, and Lincoln was openly so. I find the claim that RP has a single racist bone in his body to be difficult to accept, and even if he is, he doesn't vote that way. You shall know them by the fruits of their actions.
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Why would you give it back? They donated it to his campaign under the false impression that he shared their ideologies. That's their error, why compound it by giving it back to them so that they can use it? Why not use it for the campaign? That's not to mention the sheer complexity of giving back a campaign donation to a federal campaign. That is a rediculous idea from the start. If you were a naive RP supporter, and are no longer naive and not a RP supporter, then I'm 16 and sexy. I'm calling bullshit.
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You guys are overthinking it. When a bitcoin driven version of this... https://www.flinc.org/...becomes a viable model in major urban areas, then bitcoin would drive a rise in ad-hoc, and unmarked taxi services. Upon review of flinc.org, my take away is that any one of those people can easily pay using Bitcoin on their own accord. If that becomes the norm, yes.
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I've got bad news for you guys. None of you get to choose. Even if you are a Republican, odds are high that you don't really even get a vote. Mitt took first place in the popular vote in Iowa with 25% and Ron Paul got third place with 21%, but the popular vote is only a proxy. The actual delegates are chosen by the causas process, not the vote. The voting is simply a non-binding straw poll, and there is nothing that binds those delegates to vote for the winner once they get to the state convention. And no one watches the state convention.
It doesn't matter. What is happening now will continue then. People will balk. I and many others will become more active to expose the continued enslavement as well as continuously be ridiculed and disagreed with (until we are deaded or imprisoned), sparking further controversy, but as long as a peaceful nonviolence is preserved, all is well. A true Gandian, I presume? If you really want to make a difference, register as a republican in your state as soon as you can, and attend your precinct caucas. Try to get elected as a county delegate, and then as a state delegate at the county convention (which can happen an hour later in some cases). When you get to the state convention, try to get elected as a national delegate or help elect someone who can attend. This is how the true power structure works, the primary elections are a preference poll, and are often not binding upon the delegates. Particularly if their assigned candidate has dropped out and/or no candidate can get a majority of votes on the first round. This is the magic that the Ron Paul campaign pulled off yesterday, capturing a majority of delegates to the state convention all but secures a majority of the delegates sent to the national convention will be favorable to Ron Paul as the nominee should they get released from their assigned candidate. The new national rules within the republican party all but garantees that the convention will be "brokered" without any single candidate capturing an absolute majority of delegates. The last thing that the Ron Paul campaign wants is a two man race.
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i think of it as a play on Ft. Nox.
Definately not.
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I've got bad news for you guys. None of you get to choose. Even if you are a Republican, odds are high that you don't really even get a vote. Mitt took first place in the popular vote in Iowa with 25% and Ron Paul got third place with 21%, but the popular vote is only a proxy. The actual delegates are chosen by the causas process, not the vote. The voting is simply a non-binding straw poll, and there is nothing that binds those delegates to vote for the winner once they get to the state convention. And no one watches the state convention.
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Deepbit wants 0.01 BTC to include it in the next 30 minutes, but Joe's Mining Pool and Bait Shop will do it for 0.001 BTC in the next day.
What a charming old-fashioned prediction! Deepbit will merge with an exchange and it will offer negative effective transaction fees to the users of the exchange. Joe will offer "Mining Pool and Guaranteed-payback Three-card Monte": that's the market demand amongst the Bitcoin miners. This is an utterly rediculous statement.
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I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.
If this were remotely true, then bitcoin would rise to the moon again. Considering that the reality is much more muted than it was in the spring, I doubt that there is much blind optimism. 1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were
I've personally bought dozens of items online. The system has a steeper learning curve than using credit cards, but it's easier once you know how. If it were useless, I would have sold out last year. 2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.
Gold isn't consumed either, and your statement that everyone who bought on the way up needs to eventually sell them is just as true with regard to gold. Gold is still a commodity. Consumption isn't a necessary requirement. 3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.
The market is very tiny, and growing at an estimatable rate of at least 50% APR. That's not slow by any metric, even though it would still take decades at that rate to match a moderately sized western economy, and that rate is almost certainly not sustainable. 4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.
More specificly, 7200 bitcoins come into existence every single day. It's is because of that precision of increases in the monetary base and the knowledge that the market continues to absorb those new bitcoins without a drop in value is how the growth rate of the economy can be estimated. 5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.
Which is just as true with just about anything else, only much less so due to bitcoin's very small economy. As the economy grows larger, those bubbles will become less and less dramatic. 6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?
Probably, but are you a sucker? 7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?
Is that your problem? Or theirs'? Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them? Couldn't speculate upon that, but whether they are suckers or not, they keep coming. So by definition, the bitcoin economy grows. 9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.
It always does. The market depth on mtgox doesn't reflect a significant portion of the market, since there is much more in the 'dark pools' and who use bots to trade without showing up on the data charts. Don't put too much faith in that. 10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?
Obviously, someone is that stupid. Or that smart, depending on the outcomes. Time will tell.
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You guys are overthinking it. When a bitcoin driven version of this... https://www.flinc.org/...becomes a viable model in major urban areas, then bitcoin would drive a rise in ad-hoc, and unmarked taxi services.
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What are the odds that this overlay network could be used to permit two mobile devices to transact directly, in the absence of Internet access for one or both parties? For example, a direct ad-hoc wifi connection or an indirect connection via a 'piratebox' type device? Asuuming, of course, that the sending device doesn't need Internet access to produce a transaction from it's own, known address funds.
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The whole 0.0005 hardcoded bit isn't going to make sense most of the time.
Method blockchain.transaction.guess_fee() is addressing exactly this. At this moment there's 0.0005 constant, but I have an algorithm for calculating recommented fee in my head already... Could you provide a rough, layman's explaination of that algo please?
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Hi, I'm just getting started with bitcoins (well, I've read about 20 hours worth of webpages). I still have a few questions.
1. How long, start to finish, does it take to create and fund a dwolla account and purchase bitcoins on mtgox?
2. Isn't bitcoin vulnerable because so much of its liquidity depends on mtgox?
3. Isn't bitcoin vulnerable because the developers are few and could be influenced?
4. How long does it take to be able to post outside of this sub-forum?
Thanks and hello!
1) No idea. I've never bought bitcoins this way. 2) Vulnerable to what, exactly? 3) Again, vulnerable in what way? 4) Not long.
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Magic The Gathering Online Exchange
At least, that's what it was orginaly. The site neither shares the original intent of the founder, nor any of it's codebase anymore, so it's become a kind of branding; like Amazon doesn't really tell you that they started off selling books online, either.
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Sorry for my description being so vague.
I am talking about the structure of the block chain and not the network topology.
The client can be set as root so that it stores the whole tree, or set to a depth of 1 with path 'left' stores the left side of tree, or set to a depth of 1 with path 'right' stores the right side of tree. or set to a depth of 2 with path 'left,left' stores left left quarter of tree
Again, the internal block structure can be pruned to whatever level the client's owner feels is appropriate, all the way to nearly nothing. Most 'thin' clients won't need to even receive more than the block headers to start with, and thus won't need to 'prune' at all, but instead collect the data that is directly relevant to it's own addresses on the fly. Your idea has merit, but offer little advantage to the current system, but huge risk of creating an unintended attack vector.
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If US FRN's are traded in Somalia as well as local currency, the simplist near-term solution is a wad of cash in a UPS International document envelope. However, this still isn't a particularly cost effective solution for individuals. The early advantage of using Bitcoin as the medium is that the exchangers on the Somali side will be incentivised to arrange for the shipment of the physical cash. Considering that Somalia doesn't have any foreign trade to speak of, eventually any imbalance of cash transfers is going to have to result in the physical movement of either cash or goods.
Unless the dollar is inflating at a pretty heavy rate against goods inside of Somalia, there is already an outflow. Likely, and that is a problem. An outflow of foriegn cash implies a trade inbalance, and one not favorable to the use of bitcoin as a value transfer mechanism unless it can help tp remedy that outflow.
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