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3201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 22, 2014, 03:37:02 PM
listening to johoe is inspiring.  but it appears to me that even if you're using a BIP32 wallet, you'll still be exposed to a hack from address reuse if you choose to accept multiple payments to a single address.  for instance, if you accept 5 payments of 1BTC each to a single address, you will create 5 UTXO's of 1BTC each.  if you then only spend 1BTC from that address, you will leave the other 4 UTXO's behind on that address which will force you to reuse that address later on when you decide to make another payment.  so in that sense, HD wallets (BIP32) are still exposed if you're not careful and don't always force all tx's to empty an address.  i understand that this is not directly related to the reuse of the r value that johoe talks about in this episode, but it's concerning to me nonetheless unless i have something wrong:

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-bitcoin-game-7-bitcoin-hero-jochen-aka-johoe

Did johoe talk about BIP32 wallets in the stream? I just scanned through, but couldn't find any reference to BIP32 wallets.
However, AFAIK you're right. As soon as the hacker gets the R value of 2 signatures from the same address (e.g. from transactions, but could also be from signed messages (!) or a mixture of both), he can calculate the private key of the address and then spend all the funds still left on that address. So from 0 to 1 outgoing transactions (or publicly accessible signed messages) an address should be safe (from this specific problem). I think so far this is not related to HD/BIP32 wallets other than it's easier to not reuse a single address.

i think they did mention HD wallets somewhere in the interview but no matter.

the solution presented was to not reuse addresses as a way to solve the repeat R value problem with a poor RNG or implementation bug.  at that point i remember HD wallet use being recommended.  that's fine and good but HD wallet marketing has given what i think is a somewhat false impression of preventing address reuse as in the example i gave above.  in fact, i could see a major chain store owner assigning a specific fixed xpub address to each member store which they print out in QR code form for posting at their checkout stations.  hundreds if not thousands of tx's would serve to expand the UTXO set associated with a particular stores address.  if the owner then only spends a fraction of the BTC associated with that address repeatedly over time, that would expose the xpubkey, which would decrease security not necessarily to the same R value problem encountered with blockchain.info but perhaps to some other insecurity yet to be found.

point being that HD wallets will require much greater use scrutiny than initially thought.
3202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 22, 2014, 06:36:05 AM
this looks bullish:

3203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 22, 2014, 12:43:52 AM
it appears to me that even if you're using a BIP32 wallet, you'll still be exposed to a hack from address reuse if you choose to accept multiple payments to a single address.

I thought that it was just a limited screw-up by blockchain.info. So the affair is growing bigger (?)

i didn't imply that it's growing bigger.  i'm just saying that it appears to me (and i could be wrong) that if, as a merchant, if you're accepting multiple payments for a monthly service to a single address even tho it's generated by an HD wallet, you may be setting yourself up for reuse of that address depending on how much you decide to spend from that address later on as in the example i gave above.  you never want to reuse an address given what has happened.
3204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 21, 2014, 11:02:08 PM
listening to johoe is inspiring.  but it appears to me that even if you're using a BIP32 wallet, you'll still be exposed to a hack from address reuse if you choose to accept multiple payments to a single address.  for instance, if you accept 5 payments of 1BTC each to a single address, you will create 5 UTXO's of 1BTC each.  if you then only spend 1BTC from that address, you will leave the other 4 UTXO's behind on that address which will force you to reuse that address later on when you decide to make another payment.  so in that sense, HD wallets (BIP32) are still exposed if you're not careful and don't always force all tx's to empty an address.  i understand that this is not directly related to the reuse of the r value that johoe talks about in this episode, but it's concerning to me nonetheless unless i have something wrong:

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-bitcoin-game-7-bitcoin-hero-jochen-aka-johoe
3205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 21, 2014, 03:48:12 PM
+420 on the Dow.  wow, somebody's happy about something!

i'm staying clear of that thing.

Most people made a bundle from the Fortune 50 this year, including myself. Bitcoin was my worse performer, however I believe now is the absolutely best time to invest in crypto.  Bitcoin tends to dwell in the doldrums for a while, shaking people's beliefs and weeding out the weak, then skyrocket. 

yes, they are called cycles.  and the Dow and Bitcoin stand at opposite ends of their cycles.
Lol money is made last 1% of the cycle. It is lost 99% rest mostly... as i said so many times euphoria hadnt happened with dow and it is a long way up before the "cycle" is done.. better place to park money imo today
Your denial is a symptom of your euphoria.
No its called understanding how herd reacts in market cycles

Now you have my attention.

What type of analysis techniques do you use to measure cycles?
3206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 10:37:57 PM
+420 on the Dow.  wow, somebody's happy about something!

i'm staying clear of that thing.

Most people made a bundle from the Fortune 50 this year, including myself. Bitcoin was my worse performer, however I believe now is the absolutely best time to invest in crypto.  Bitcoin tends to dwell in the doldrums for a while, shaking people's beliefs and weeding out the weak, then skyrocket. 

yes, they are called cycles.  and the Dow and Bitcoin stand at opposite ends of their cycles.
3207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 09:01:56 PM
+420 on the Dow.  wow, somebody's happy about something!

i'm staying clear of that thing.
3208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 06:55:31 PM

convenient place for a double bottom.
3209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 06:43:41 PM
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is imposing an interest rate of –0.25% on sight deposit account balances at the SNB, with the aim of taking the three-month Libor into negative territory. It is thus expanding the target range for the three-month Libor to –0.75% to 0.25% and extending it to its usual width of 1 percentage point. Negative interest will be levied on balances exceeding a given exemption threshold.

http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20141218/source/pre_20141218.en.pdf

This is in response to capital flight from Russia with the collapsing currency.

Now imagine if that capital flight one day starts to direct itself into bitcoin (or gold) instead of to another fiat currency as is the norm today.

i believe it's only for accts over $10M.

but yeah, nowhere good to flee.  except...
3210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 06:10:26 PM
We believe that the weakness in U.S. equity and debt markets stems from a more fundamental problem than concerns about future growth, namely that investors are once again starting to seriously question the disclosure from the largest banks and investment houses regarding their credit exposure to highly leveraged borrowers. This concern is evidenced by weakness in the equity market valuations of lenders with exposure to the oil sector as well as the recent changes in the relative position of spreads in the U.S.bond markets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/outlook-2015-deflation-remains-dominant-theme

Deflation.  yep.

all good for Bitcoin.
3211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 05:37:02 PM
looks good:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2pp4fk/key_points_of_bitlicense_announcement_by_ben/
3212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 03:30:30 AM
i agree with the above and is what i meant.  blockchain.info not affected but certainly Circle and CB affected.
3213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 03:20:05 AM
NY will go right down the middle.

users, merchants, software devs, online wallets, and miners not affected.  exchanges and money transmitters heavily regulated as originally outlined.
3214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 18, 2014, 12:52:52 AM
There is a growing body of evidence that bigger government means slower growth of real GDP. Once the level of total government spending as a percentage of GDP reaches a tipping point, estimated to be from 15 percent to 25 percent of GDP, additional expansion crowds out private productive investment and slows economic growth. When government overreaches, economic freedom is diminished and private exchange opportunities are lost — that is, the range of choices open to individuals is restricted.

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/increasing-economic-growth-means-shrinking-size-scope-government?utm_content=buffereb64d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

this is what i mean by "Black Hole Shit" and it's not lookin good:

3215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 10:29:36 PM
Ripple is basically a patch for the legacy banking system, improving upon payment networks such as ACH and SWIFT.  This may be viable for a while but the entire legacy banking system needs to be completely replaced IMO.
They have a few centuries head start and are pretty well entrenched.  It is a longshot.

But just maybe the force is with us.

Exactly why I say it need not be decentralized to serve its intended and most useful purpose. In fact the collapse of decentralization might be a blessing for them. They can stop the wasted effort of trying to be bitcoin and focus on being an add on to banking.


i hope you're right.  good riddance to them.  and stop pretending that they can decentralize a debt lending system.
3216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 08:35:38 PM
Ripple is basically a patch for the legacy banking system, improving upon payment networks such as ACH and SWIFT.  This may be viable for a while but the entire legacy banking system needs to be completely replaced IMO.
They have a few centuries head start and are pretty well entrenched.  It is a longshot.

But just maybe the force is with us.

i'm actually looking forward to the XboxOne even tho its for my high schooler and his friends.  do they even make Star Wars games for it?
3217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 09:27:44 AM
yeah, Ripple and Stellar.  what the heck is that?  esp after Stellar contracted down to one node?

Don't forget that centralized systems are still thousands of times bigger than bitcoin. So there is a big market potentially even if the whole thing runs entirely on one node.

Yeah but the rally started on or near the time of the stellar fork and retrenchment to one node which should have been a huge indictment against their entire concept of consensus.
3218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 09:18:37 AM
i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.

Suspicious how? Satoshi's rhetoric (right down to the genesis block quote) was clearly directed right at the heart of the crisis. Whether that was really a motivation for the project or opportunistic marketing is unclear though.


suspicious in the sense of "fate".  or, as in, perfect timing. 

suspicious as in "a cash payment is a suspicious transaction"?


The project had been in the works for a long time...the design and plans were complete at least 4 years previous, but not any code then.  So my overwhelming emotion is one of gratitude rather than suspicion.

Yes absolutely. I  only said that figuratively. More as an indictment of what might be starting in the real capital markets.
3219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 05:07:52 AM
“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.

Those bully tactics won't work if the majority of their populace decide that a better alternative exists.  The more and more central banks intervene, the more and more the fiat ledger gets distorted.  Eventually you lose track of who owes who and it becomes nearly impossible to value assets, which seems to near where we are today.  Of course this could be another head fake... or it could be the collapse we have all been looking for.

yeah, this one looks highly suspicious to me.  we never fixed anything in 2008, only made it worse with multiple QE's and more debt.

Greek debt is imploding along with the already imploded Argentinian & Cyprus debt.  the one that really makes this one suspicious is the currency failures we're seeing in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil.  we're getting down to the basic units of finance that are failing. 

on top of that, the failure of gold and silver to hold up over the last few years continues and imo is leading everything down.  i can't think of no better timing for a Black Swan like Bitcoin to have landed on the scene.

It definitely looks primed.  Hash rate 50x higher than a year ago.  Tx rates at all time high.  Huge bull flag generated for over a year.  Third largest company in the world now accepts bitcoin.  Eight thousand locations in argentina now exchange pesos for bitcoin.  The last mini rally (ending nov 11) coincided with the highest total weekly exchange volume ever in bitcoin history (over 6 million coins traded vs just over 3 million at the previous record in nov 2013!).  And world fiat currencies may be on the brink of collapse.  The stage is set.  

The only caveat is ripple has showed surprising strength lately. Shocked

yeah, Ripple and Stellar.  what the heck is that?  esp after Stellar contracted down to one node?
3220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 17, 2014, 04:21:09 AM
obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment.
This is false. The only question is where is the breaking point (and how close to it we are), not whether there is one.

"Trends that can't continue, won't"


... too much of a good thing will never be good for you.

tell that to the 0.1%
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