Decent interview with Peter Todd who I always appreciate hearing from. He's always had a balanced and realistic view of things IMHO. https://medium.com/zapchain-magazine/why-one-bitcoin-developer-thinks-cryptocurrencies-have-a-dreadful-future-93007cff1613His comments on government intervention I think there’s a really high chance that we see a lot more government action against bitcoin, including the core protocol.
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I keep talking to regulators at conferences who believe bitcoin simply must change to bring it in line with other payment systems; unfortunately this means adding identity information to bitcoin transactions and making it possible to blacklist funds.
I'll continue to maintain that the best defense to this is to make bitcoin as widely used worldwide directly by people as end-users with their own wallets. If everyone just holds coins or uses bitpay and coinbase, it will be much easier to push regulation into the system. If usage grows globally to be a complicated mess of direct person-to-person usages and numerous small services spread around the world, it will be very hard for a single gov to push regulation in (even for the USSA). we're already seeing widespread usage outside the US. plus, i think their will be plenty of foreign sovereigns who will be more than happy to see the US try to clamp down on Bitcoin as it presents an opportunity for them to unseat the top dog. this is why China hasn't outright clamped down on it and why the UK is moving forward. |
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There's much to be learned from what's happened to Ripple. I, and others, were always warning of their centralized nature. Yet there were/are legions of supporters who wish to believe otherwise. I always got the sense that they just wanted to be a part of the next big thing. The other thing that always got to me was their incessant pandering to the Bitcoin community, here on the forums, and especially at conferences. Alas, their tech is nothing but an upgrade to the existing systems.
I would submit that the best way to support Bitcoin at this stage is to buy the coin itself. What Bitcoin needs is greater liquidity and with it will come greater stability and growth. It needs a much larger market cap to support all the companies that want to build on top of it. The merchant build out has been premature.
Once Bitcoin has established itself as a sound, reliable form of money, only then will it excel to the levels we all want it to achieve.
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Please get online 0.93.1 working on Ubuntu 12.04, 32bit  |
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if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such. The only thing to worry about is the spread of exchanges that do not allow users to withdraw real bitcoins on the blockchain. I haven't yet seen any of those. This is exactly right. As long as withdrawing is possible, then any manipulation is extremely limited since a manipulator first needs to acquire bitcoins before selling. Free exchange and the ability to withdraw force exchanges to not fractionally leverage their holdings (in essence naked short) and force exchanges to be relatively honest. If free exchange and the right to withdraw into your own wallet is ever stopped, only then can an exchange or a government manipulate prices. Again, FDR's 1933 default was exactly this. In 1932 anyone could walk into a bank and exchange $ for gold. In 1933 this free exchange was stopped and you were no longer able to "withdraw" your gold, which dollars represented. Once the ability to withdraw was blocked, the government was free to leverage to infinity. The corollary to this is "never leave any coin on exchanges!" |
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Listen carefully, from smericanpegasus:  |
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Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives. but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up. we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered. if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such. NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol. except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply. this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down. but of course, getting them to do anything is another story. and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US. Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo. it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area. I've been through at least 3 bitcoin bear markets (maybe 4?) so I don't think it is doom colouring my perception. Coinbase and Circle are nothing more than revamped PayPals built on top of bitcoin, not sure that BitPay is that much better. End user solutions that maximise the decentralisation benefits of bitcoin's digital cash are not even on the drawing board in USA because of absolute obsequiousness towards the Almighty State dictat there. Inviting regulation when there was an opportunity for gaining the moral high-ground through legitimate civilian disobedience against the prevalent government push towards ubiquitous financial surveillance is a major error and missed opportunity. The bankster attack dogs will gladly regulate (and fraudulently trade for profit) bitcoin to its obscurity, just like they have done with gold. Bitcoin is different from gold in that it's fixed supply base is easily verifiable in real time. message signing can be used to verify every holders BTC position as proof. Merkle tree audits can be used to verify an exchanges holdings. gold, not at all, being locked up in forts and vaults of exchanges in a few locations. as a result, the paper gold mkt can be much more easily manipulated. but who says it is being manipulated? i think it is in fact slowly losing its exchange value to Bitcoin. |
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Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives. but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up. we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered. if their algos keep a continually falling lid on prices and price perceptions such that the market never "turns up" materially, funded by unlimited supplies of fiat only, then it is an effective social/economic attack that will inevitably sideline bitcoin as a useful currency. The exchanges that facilitate manipulative pricing algorithms on their platforms are accomplices in this attack on bitcoin and imho should be treated as such. NB: this has nothing to do with my support for implementing 2-way pegs in the protocol. except that shorting requires borrowing existing BTC on the exchange of which there is only a theoretically limited supply. this is where naked shorting potentially enters the picture and any exchange who allows this should be black balled and reported to the authorities for illegal practices hopefully to be shut down. but of course, getting them to do anything is another story. and yes, i think you're allowing the bear mkt to influence your perception that Bitcoin isn't working in the US. Bitcoin cannot not work in an isolated geographical region imo. it will route around that area until it forces capitulation of affected area. |
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Look at what happened to bitcoin in USA since Fed/wall st. took an interest, it died.
i agree with most of what you say except for the above. yes, i think they are interfering in the Bitcoin price mkt thru derivatives. but i don't think it is sustainable and they most likely will get whiplashed to the tune of millions of losses when the mkt turns up. we all should be keeping a close eye out for the first derivatives exchange (here's looking at you BFX) that does a force majeure that forces settlement in USD as opposed to BTC from the lack of available BTC needed to be covered. i can see why you're so willing to allow change to the source code, you think we've lost the game here in the US and only things like SC's can save us. have a little more faith. |
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No one believes any real government will default This is bizarre, since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually. Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments. The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day. Greece?! Compared to England, France, Japan, USA, (Your Country HERE) their default won't cause much of a (ehem) ripple. None of these people have absolutely ANY intention of paying back. They can't even afford the negative interest rate lol This just cannot transition smoothly. IMF et al might be able to bail out smooth over whatever for Greece. And Portugal. And Spain. And Ireland... What will they be able to do when the measurable economies start to default? And They Will. Government spending only slows when the host has expired. the host, unfortunately, being WE THE PEOPLE. speculators willingly hoover up gvt bonds knowing full well that ultimately the gvt can tax the ppl to death or mandate pension plans buy gvt bonds to keep their value propped up. they even willingly pay for the privilege in terms of negative interest rates. eventually, the stock mkt will be sacrificed to keep the gvt bond buying mirage intact for as long as possible. we are all going Japanese. |
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tell me somebody isn't watching the chart of the Transports and stepping in to reverse almost all intraday attempts to violate this support level as evidenced by the spinning top intraday reversals; especially today after the previous singular violation on 4/6. sure, one can just implicate speculators buying at support but otoh, it could be the Magic Hand of the PPT:  |
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$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt. that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place. look the hell out:
Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish. None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything. The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple. The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK. Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think. unfortunately, you may be right. the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008. and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece. except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening. the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality. and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened. the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top. i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat. is there a breaking pt? i think there is. but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when. this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead. but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days. quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me. i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time. only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation. |
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keep focusing on the positives:  |
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Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.
this is the right attitude, altho highly conservative. the beautiful thing is that Bitcoin has been powerful enough to get an IBM and the world's most powerful CB up in a tizzy. not to mention headed off in the wrong direction. |
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Why should a govcoin bother with mining which is a waste of electricity if you're not using the distributed security mechanism. They will simply design it so only the FED or some other agency can create and sign blocks. Since there is a single centralized block generator they could also issue blocks faster (say every 5 seconds) without the risk of orphans, then claim how much better their implementation is because it has faster block confirmation times (plus is wrapped in the protective love of our betters).
My thoughts exactly, why not just use POS protocol? exactly. IBM doesn't want to get into the biz of hashing with all the attendant ordering of multiple parts and accessories. it's too risky. they'll just do POS. |
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who need copper when we just need tubes?  |
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$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt. that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place. look the hell out:  |
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