GLBSE hasn't locked trading yet  And it looks like your assets (not including defaulted loans) are (478+475+85+30) = 1068BTC, while hard debt is 1806, which gives a FV of 0.059. But the ask is 0.0495. Hmmmm.... |
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GLBSE hasn't locked trading yet |
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My list : 1) S.MPOE - Equity stake in a the bitcoin options exchange and MPEX, paid 1.3% this month (record high, aberration?) 2) S.DICE - Satoshi Dice, a bitcoin gambling site yielding 0.5-2% a month dividend payout. http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/assets/S.DICE_Prospectus_Full.pdf3) BitVPS - A virtual private server service that gets revenues in bitcoin, currently paying dividends at 1-2% / month 4) Gigamining - The #1 bitcoin mining rig operator, who is currently paying out around 6% a month in revenues, but this is falling fast, shares will be upgraded to a new venture, Teramining when a disruptive new technology ASIC mining chips come out. Higher risk, higher rewards. 5) MPCD.A, MPCD.B - The top two tranches of a bitcoin CDO composed of assorted higher yielding, and risky assets. Pays 2% / mo for the A tranche, 3% / mo for the B tranche. 6) Bonds backing the MPOE, a bitcoin options exchange. These bonds provide the working capital for the market-maker of the options exchange. They yield 5% / month, but face serious risk of capital loss if the options market-maker loses money from the sold positions. Requires high capital. Bitcoinbear, if you are interested in MPEX investing but can't afford the startup fee, I am willing to offer you a stake in my portfolio. It's distributed exclusively across the top 5 assets listed above. This would be a private offering, off-exchange, with gpg signed contracts and a google doc with asset listing. I am doing this for a few of my friends in real life, thinking about whether its worth the hassle to let online peeps tag along too. Of course, if you have >400 BTC you are probably better off just buying a seat at the exchange and investing there yourself. |
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Make that 11628 BTC to go  |
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But only 3521107*.0034 = 11971 bitcoins away from the first 9% price jump. 9% return will be pretty sweet as it is. Also, the daily betting results updates certainly put a damper on buying after the 2800BTC loss on September 8th. When you know the yield is going to be <1% this month, other securities (S.MPOE, B.MPCD.A, B.MPCD.B, ) look more attractive from a yield perspective (1.36, 2, 3%/mo respectively). Now we have a blank profit slate, and hopefully we will catch up with a great month in October. If the yield is looking more rich >1.5%, I expect the .0034 block will sell out before Nov. .6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.
Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares. That is still something like 23000 btc away. |
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Yeah, but it was an unlucky month, relative to expectation. Expected return is 1.9% total bets minus about 0.1% in fees. Looking at the bet volume this month... (.019-.001)*(881473.16-649203.71) = 4180.85 BTC, Actual came in around 2200BTC. 4180.85 BTC / 100,000,000 / .0034 = 1.23% expected yield this month. Extrapolating 1.0123^12 (assuming reinvestment at .0034), = 15.8% APR. See this thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.220More like around (11851 - 9851 / 10) = 200BTC estimated for this month. 0.6% yield at 0.0034 price. Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.
Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!
.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will. |
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The only relevant price is the underlying security, not some crappy passthru in an illiquid market (5 day volume of 1.2 bitcoins) that has a spread of 80% of the ask. Compare it to S.MPOE, (5 day volume of ~3600 bitcoins), current spread of 0.6% of the ask. 3000x the liquidity, 130x smaller spread. Perhaps this example simply illustrates the power of GLBSE to turn a dividend producing and valuation rising security into a loser.
And pay we did. We paid over 1,000 bitcoins to one guy, 250 to another, we paid over 2,500 bitcoins to cover YARR, and so forth. We paid out significant sums on options contracts, on hardware and power outages to mining companies, and so on and so forth. Yes, we made some money too. It wasn't all loss. Don't forget, we made money on the premiums too. But that's not the point.
As it turned out, it was the general community that failed CPA. People on the board didn't even want their name associated as members.
The problem would be that you've taken in what looks like 20k BTC capital, have paid out ~1k in dividends, ~2k in claims to outsiders and have maybe 10k worth of assets left (could as well be 5k, who knows in a 10 BTC depth "market" such as the Global Scam Exchange). So now, you've spent 10% of your take in buying credibility as you yourself admit, and that leaves a hole of about 5 to 10k BTC to be shouldered by the community. The community is predictably not happy about this, which you call "it failing CPA". Yes, the community "has failed" some braindamaged scheme which only makes sense if the community were to agree with your own regard of yourself. As the community pretty much thinks you're dirt, it's obviously not very happy to have poured 60 to 120,000 USD into dirt. Is this really a surprise? Make people money, they'll like you. Lose their capital, they'll dislike you. Socialite or no socialite, them's the breaks. You have terminal brain cancer. EVERYTHING lost money. Everything. Unfortunate for you.
In this 4 month interval S.MPOE went from ~10k satoshi a share to ~40k satoshi a share (+300%) and paid out in dividends 76.60729808 + 792.34834548 + 534.33526152 + 619.51519201 + 2,142.90254425 + 293.32991135 = 4,459.03855269 BTC. That's about on the level of the capital you lost. In the same 4 month interval S.BVPS went from ~220k satoshi a share to ~360k satoshi a share (+50%) and paid 32.165 + 20.165 + 55.55333216 + 35 = 142.88333216 BTC in dividends. The list goes on and on. Smarten up, you're not yet ready to play the investor with OPM. If you bought the MPOE passthrough on glbse last month you would have gone from 1.5 to .3  By your reasoning this is also a scam. |
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The probability is betting volume dependent. If volume goes up the chance of a neg div goes down. I believe the volume is still quite a bit higher than June and July. Would be interesting to do a likelyhood analysis given the number of bets per month and their size distribution, but not enough time right now for me to crunch it. I'd probably just do a Monte Carlo approach in matlab. The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s). There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.
If we look at the historical data, June would have been a zero payout month, and July only just managed to recover June's losses too. I don't know if these were freak occurrences, but so far 1 (and almost 2) out of 4 months would have been zero payout months:  |
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See this thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.220More like around (11851 - 9851 / 10) = 200BTC estimated for this month. 0.6% yield at 0.0034 price. Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.
Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!
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The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s). There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely. What if the profits are:
10k at the end of September
9k at the end of November
10k at the end of December
There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December? Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month? Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
Per the prospectusIt is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends
OK thanks. It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense. As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv ) |
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Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
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I read that the next payment from SatoshiDICE will be on Oct 1. It will be exiting to see how much it is!
I thought it was on the 5th? Which is it? It will be around 200BTC, unless something changes dramatically in the next few days, according to dooglass's analysis |
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My mistake. I had in the back of my mind the fact that I believe Bank of America account holders can transfer money to other Bank of America account holders, I believe free of charge, online. But I think this may be something equivalent to ACH which you don't accept. Otherwise I will endeavor to use your service ASAP!
BofA does have a feature where you can instantly transfer funds to another BofA account. This would be a great deposit option but they block it from working on business accounts. If you try you will get an error. No technical reason it couldn't work but they don't want to give business accounts free "anything".  That feature is really just for tiny transfers. $1k limit / day $2.5k / wk. |
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my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time. The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents. Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall... If I just knew how to make a script for it.... Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0. If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script.... As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead.... I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially. I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low. Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal. That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns. =p Dude, don't confuse a lucky streak with a what would on average happen streak. I played the under 8000 strat. Won .37BTC first time, lost it all the second time (.65BTC). Maybe my bankroll wasn't big enough. |
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Oh please anything but Blake. I have a lot of coins riding on this at betsofbitcoin. Go Skein!
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The last price is not 0.64.... Still not much support.
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I also check multiple times a day. It's my favorite thread on bitcointalk.
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I really appreciate your kind help & patience with a Linux newb like my self , if I am able to get my password back I will send you 0.1BTC out of some 2.0Btc in that wallet  OMG. I wonder how much electricity you will burn to get those two BTC back. Sentimental value I guess? |
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