I have a feeling the Fed will be reversing some of their actions next month at the latest. Maybe not rates, but I bet they'll change their mind on the QT. Shit is going to break real soon, the world is too leveraged now for any tightening. There is no way the Fed will sit back and let this happen, to do so would be the end of all government services, followed by the goverment itself.

Imagine  the government trying to pay for everything without being able to issue bonds (because the fed is no longer buying), or tax its citizens because unemployment is above 20% and capital gains are a thing of the past. The Fed is the lender of last resort for a reason and we're going to see them in that role again real soon. In the mean time markets are cactus, including Bitcoin's price.

If you thought you'd seen brrr before, well baby, you ain't seen nothing yet.

I don't know what you mean by new world currency, but apparently it is at 6 month highs vs the dollar. The theory is that the EU nations are indeed paying in rubles.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/hungary-throws-eu-neighbors-under-bus-says-10-nations-technically-buying-gas-rubles-putin

Rubles or USD are meaningless in the long run, Bitcoin is and will be the only one anybody wants to hold in the future.

People are sheep, 80% of people in BTC probably don't understand it. Therefore, with the Fed trying to crash everything, the price will continue to come under pressure until either:

1. the Fed reverses
2. all the dipshits who don't understand btc sell them to people that do.

IMO the Fed will reverse course before 2, especially since the credit markets are begining to show signs of coming under pressure.

Russia can not touch USD, their USD reserves have been frozen/stolen. To accept payment for their gas in USD is to give it all away for free. Why should Russia do that?

You know I didn’t say that. Or, are you saying you don’t know what the Fed controls with all its various tools? You’re daft so I’ll just tell you, US dollars.

And guess what, USD is one half of the USD/BTC pair, wow!! Does that mean that if the Fed manipulates the USD it actually has an effect on the price of BTC (or more appropriately any asset measured in it USD)? Actually don’t answer that you can’t.


I’m not sure what you’re implying here and I guess neither are you. But for my most of history gold was a currency. I guess it’s possible for something to be both “shock!!” gold and a currency.


What? snap out of the reality of the Feds temporary manipulations of the global reserve currency. Seems like a real winner idea right there.



This will be my only reply to your stupidity.

Its digital gold alright, but only those who look further out than the short-term can see that. In decades time everyone will see how digital gold it is.

These thing take time. I'm sure 10 years after the first person who decided gold was a thing. The other 99% of the global population didn't even know about it, yet alone the importantce of its value.

What's more, if the Fed is increasing the value of the dollar, which they are, the value of digital gold and real gold will go down. To expect otherwise makes no sense.

Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.

For another opinion, I'm somewhat convinced by the low carb folk when it comes to diet for avoiding diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Mind you I haven’t really scoured the literature myself as of yet in any great detail (always damn busy). However, when this topic comes up on hackernews I do go through the comments and look at the odd link posted.

Here’s a few I’ve read/watched recently, more cholesterol focused than diabetes but I believe they are related.

https://peterattiamd.com/the-straight-dope-on-cholesterol-part-i/ - A pretty detailed guide on all aspects cholesterol. Referencing could be better, but still not bad.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32653422/- Review and Meta-Analysis on egg consumption and  cardiovascular disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38461-y – an interesting one, specifically figure 2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXKJaQeteE0 – a nice easy to understand video, no real detail though.

To me it all just kind of makes sense. Carbs trigger an insulin response, today’s carbs are supercharged, therefore pancreas gets worn out. In addition, to that the carbs affect the cholesterol, 2 birds with one stone.

Having said all that, just cutting out majority processed foods would probably be enough. But low carb, with lots of vegetables IMO would probably be best.
 

Elon musk is one of these

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20366662

I'm surprised so many worship him.

Well, price is still going down. That sucks.

I see upchannel support is at 39,500 - 40,000. Hopefully, it bounces off that.

I know how you feel, I think there is a bit of support between here and 40k but I certainly wouldn't bet that it will hold.

It makes me wonder. I see the price go down, and the charts showing supply held by LTHs constantly increasing, when will 100% of supply be in LTH hands and at that point how many millions of coins will still be listed as balances on exchanges. My bet is there is some serious fractional reserve ratios happening on a lot of exchanges.

TA is good for trying to work out where people have their buy and sell orders (looking for a bounce, breakout, or fake out stop hunt), and of course a good way for you to work out where you could place your own. But does it have much predictive value? In times where the market consists of mainly traders, probably, because traders use TA extensively (self-fulfilling prophecy and all that). If the market is being moved due to other participants, news, etc. I would think not.

They've lost a 250,000 people? That's some kind of joke right?

To be a billionaire and not own Bitcoin is pure stupidity. Firstly, so what if it's risky, you're a billionaire you can afford large drawdowns. Secondly, you're a Russian billionaire, Russia has been targeted with sanctions for years now (including individuals), you really should of been prepared for this. Surely, he would at least have some gold jewellery floating about that he can off load.

Story sounds like bullshit to me.

Doesn't matter what is excluded from CPI or not, shadowstats inflation numbers may indeed be more accurate, but so long as the measure is consistent enough the amounts don't matter. But, it's very important to know the difference between the 2 types of inflation as they have very different drivers (most of the time) and effects on the economy/assets.

Not naive to think the QE etc. won't find its way into our CPI pleb inflation. We have more than 10 years of CPI (or shadow stats if you prefer) data saying it didn't. Maybe it will in the future, however, the only way that we'll see any CPI inflation from the QE money is if the rich sold their assets and spend that money on consumption. Rich don't do that.

The key thing to understand with all this shit is what actually is money. QE is not money in the sense most people understand it, it is capital reserves, plebs can't use this money. Fiscal is the money that people can see in their bank account and can actually be used.

2 types of brrrrr. 1st is printed by the central banks (reserves). 2nd is printed by the private banks (through new debt creation) and is what is in your bank account. It's a seriously interesting topic, and shows why us plebs need Bitcoin.

The monetary inflation (QE etc.), which we have had a massive amount of since 2008 has increased asset prices only. If you care to look over the inflation numbers since that time you'll notice that not only are assets up a hell of a lot, but also CPI inflation was low up until 2021.

So all that Brrr money did nothing to CPI until recently, why? Because giving money to the rich via monetary inflation over a decade doesn't push up the CPI, only asset prices. The rich invest 99% of their wealth, hence no CPI impact. What pushed up CPI starting from last year? Massive fiscal (money to the poor) stimulus, the poor spend 99% of their wealth hence increase in CPI, combined with massive supply constraints.

Up until the Ukraine invasion these supply constraints had peaked, but with the invasion and the sanctions that went with it, along with Covid close downs now in China, those supply issues will probably be around for at least another year.

So yes CPI inflation will now remain high until all that changes. At the moment there aren’t any fiscal responses, but if that does happen, expect more CPI inflation.

Honestly, it’s really not too hard to understand, there are 2 types of inflation, CPI and monetary, both move around for mostly very different reasons, but on a rare occasion it can be the same reason.

Edit: I do believe some of the brrr money had an effect, the fiscal stimulus side only, but the monetary inflation since 2008 did not. Fiscal ended a while ago now, if it doesn't start again and CPI reamins high it will be that way because of the supply issues.

So the Barts are back. These manipulators can only come out when buy and sell volumes are low. So I figure that the only buyers now are us LTH DCA types, and we aren't selling ever, so we need some other buyer demand to come in before we see the Barts disappear I reckon.

The good news regarding the Barts is that they only happen near the lows, so downside risk is minimal for the medium term I reckon.

Anyway, these prices are fine by me as I am happy to DCA for another year at least.

Julian calender was off (drifted over the years) by many days, which they fixed some time mid last millennium. I think they went to bed on something like March 4th and woke up on March 25th to fix the drift. You'll need to do a search online for specifics. So basically some of those Russian ruler March dates may not line up correctly with the March of today.

A couple thoughts:

1. I hear the US is going to annouce some kind of policy/regulations or something regarding bitcoin soonish. There are people saying this will be bad as in a move to start pushing back against bitcoin's growth and others are saying that this is the US positioning itself to be a key player in the upcoming bitcoin world. I personally have no idea what's going to happen, but seeing the following tweet makes me wonder. Has the US been in discussion with the EU regarding its soon to be bitcoin policy? maybe they have, and this decision by the EU to drop the bans migtht mean that the US is going to make a positive announcement.




2. I've mentioned this before. It is my understanding that there is a massive discount on the Grayscale trust to the bitcoin spot price. Grayscale is going for an ETF approval, if they get it not only will there probably be a short term pump, but, the discount will completely disappear, meaning those who bought before the announcement have made a shit ton of profit if they sell just after approval. Approving this ETF as opposed to the others also means that the conis the trust holds will no longer be locked down, the SEC might see this as a good thing, I don't know. But I think that taking a bet on that trade has a huge potential pay off. And I'm sure that's why funds like ARK and Morgan Stanley are investing in the trust.

I suspect this is because all the weak hands had mostly been cleared out from the 50% correction we had last year. And the weak hands that somehow held through that have now been removed from this recent correction. Retail is dead, which means no weak hands.