Highly suspicious indeed...  The only non-BFL videos of BFL devices we see are made by people who take videos of the BFL devices they've received...  It must be a conspiracy!

We demand to see videos of BFL devices from people who are really pissed off with BFL and cancelled their orders.. oh no, wait...

I know.... we demand to see videos of BFL devices from people who are really pissed off with BFL but who didn't cancel their orders who won't post a video because they don't want to promote BFL.  Yes, that's the one...  er... 

OK, Does anybody want to take a walk down the volume stairs of the last few days ?



To give this a context, today's has more than half a day to go but even if it stayed where it is it is still an equivalent dollar volume to an average day in January (the top step, the 24th April having been the fourth highest day trading ever).

I just went to check it out for myself - I don't mean actually going outside  myself but drawing the curtains and looking.  It looks really impressive.  I could see people standing outside the church doing something I think they call conversing; likewise people sitting at tables outside the pub with what I think I remember from the old days is called 'a pint of beer'.  Across the road outside Tescos were three members of staff wrestling with someone, trying to take from her a rather full looking wheeled shopping bag (she eventually let the bag go and ran).  In the meantime on the pavement of the junction a child was having a tantrum not wanting to hold his mother's hand to cross the side road.  And all the time lots of people and cars and buses going by.  Two minutes filled with loads of colour and life.

So why is watching some numbers go by and a squiggly line gradually move up or down or sideways - interspersed with reading what people are writing about some numbers and a squiggly line more compelling than going outside and being part of so-called 'real life'?

Hope you don't mind Adam (and regular Wallites) that I'm jumping in here to flagrantly plug my new blog posting saying why I'm happy that the price of Bitcoin is currently fluctuating as it has been since the 12th.

It's called An healthy uncertainty in the bitcoin marketplace

Edit:  I have just cross posted the link over at Reddit if anyone would like to take a potential discussion on it off this thread...

I guess they still do otherwise they might actually have given some useful information in the article such as whether it works, at what hash rate, at what power, whether it overheats, how noisy or quiet it is and whether it is still working as they go to print.  But they couldn't be bothered to give it to a proper tech reviewer because they don't care.  And maybe BFL don't care either as long as a picture of their pretty machine was published in on a prestigious website.  They're all playing the same game!

I was about to go look for it myself

Loving this little dip.  I like the fact the price don't simply dive down and straight back up again as it tended to on the retractions before the big drop from $266.  As many people as there are and as much money as there is to come on board I believe it is much healthier that we don't get the false sense of security of being 'out of the woods'.  My guess is it means people buying are accepting it may drop some after purchase and are more likely to be thinking long term and accepting risks than diving in blindly believing it's a free and easy ride up forever*.

Edit: * then panicking and selling at a loss on a massive drop!

Is he not a bull in bear's clothing?

This is probably reported somewhere more appropriate but there's a half hour programme 'The Report' on Bitcoin on BBC Radio 4 right now.

I am well aware - and overall as you know although I'm not one to shout it from the rooftops I veer towards super-bullish.  It's just that phrases like 'out of the woods' make me a little nervous - not for the long-term future of bitcoin but for the sake of those who get caught in the crossfire of extreme market fluctuations.

I kinda like the idea of us learning to live with high bid and ask pressure as 'the norm'.  Opening up the steam locomotive up too quickly will release a lot of the steam pressure and the wheels will turn impressively fast but they are just spinning and are hardly pulling the train at all.  Opening up a little less quickly maintains a head of steam whilst effectively transferring the energy to the wheels so that the whole train slowly gains momentum until you've got something pretty heavy hurtling along the tracks at some rate!

My preference (as if I what I fancy has any influence at all ) is that the total ask remained high so that people don't get the 'out of the woods' feeling resulting in another bonkers spending spree and its inevitable consequence!

I like loads of bitcoins on the order book as a constant reminder that people will sell if the price is right and could easily sell loads - so don't get carried away with the buying!

Doh, I didn't even spot that when I posted it till you pointed it out.  Awesome!  That's one long wall!

In the meantime bitcoinity looks cool even if not very helpful, kindly pointing to an ancient bid price

As do I sire, as do I

But I don't either believe one should be obliged to know the ins and outs of every tax jurisdiction prior to being free to post 'grand political or economic theories'.

I understand that both business and residential rates in the UK are paid by occupiers not landowners.  What I would question is your classifying the uk system as 'land tax'.   I know Scotland and Wales have variations on the system but as far as I understand it neither domestic nor business rates are based on land values but on rateable values for business premises and on 'Council Tax Banding' for residential.  The latter, based on 1991 values fails dismally to reflect the increased polarity between land value in prosperous and impoverished regions.  Business tax at least is more current but still includes the value of the building itself.  Neither tax is payable on vacant building land.  In my eyes it would take some stretch to classify either as 'land tax'.

Although not impossible (which I suppose my wording incorrectly implied) I can not see any organisation putting a land tax system in place without at least having enough of an understanding (and, as you suggest, doing enough research) to know it can only work if it is the land owner that pays.  What's more, because rental values are determined by demand and are independent of the cost of supply then these charges can not be passed on to the tenant so not even indirectly does the tenant pay.*

As it happens I wrote a blog about Land Tax this morning.

No hard feelings.  I wrote as I did for clarification rather than as criticism/correction.

* The tenant would likely eventually end up paying more but only because another consequence of Land Value Tax is that other forms of taxation are reduced/abolished meaning more money is available meaning the competition for the same rental units is increased resulting in landlords being able to raise rent.

This ^

Except that land taxation always taxes owners not renters.

There is a carrot to land taxes I'm on a mission to point out to people (see my blog link) but I also think Bitcoin and anything that makes it easier for more income, purchases and wealth more difficult for governments to keep up with also acts as a stick towards a means of public revenue that's been staring them in the face for a century and more!

My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC  turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been:  The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher.  It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

You've been confusing me - when you say 'out' you mean 'out of your temporary fiat position' is that what you're saying?

Also bear in mind a $10 fluctuation when the price was around $200 was 5% whereas at $100 is 10%.  All other things being equal (which they're not as has been suggested) one should expect fluctuations to be of half the dollar value.

A few more considerations to add to this:

Very many people who trade don't really know how much they've made nor lost primarily because their record keeping is rubbish.

Many more people who trade believe they've done OK than actually have (which I think is a reason bad record-keeping is so common because not knowing allows one to keep the success delusion going).

I have noticed the trend in success report posting when usd/btc was on the way up tended to express their success in $ whereas since the ratio was going down success tends to be reported in increased btc holding.  Making USD when the price was on its way up was 'easy'.  But if the end-goal was increased btc holding how many of those who believe they 'did well' actually held more btc at its peak than had they just bought and held?  Making BTC when the price was on its way down was also 'easy'.  But if the end-goal was to make more usd how many of those who believe they did well actually made more by trading than they would have had they just sold first opportunity on the way down and stopped trading?

And just another couple of considerations that may be worth contemplating:

most people have an idea when to get in to a trade but many many don't at the point of entry have a clear strategy as to when to exit - for if it goes well and for if it goes against them.

Many people who trade do not have a clearly defined policy regarding how much money (whether btc or fiat) one's trading capital is and how one decides for each trade what proportion of the 'bank' to trade.  I would even venture to hazard a guess that most people trading fiat and btc haven't really decided which of the two to treat as one's bank and therefore don't even have a clear picture as to what an 'open' position is (if you think of your bank in fiat an 'open' position is when you own bitcoin with the intent to sell for fiat profit whereas if you think of your bank in bitcoin your 'bank' is when you've bought some fiat with the purpose of selling it back for bitcoin).

Oh and one more... Heads up to the OP for reporting a lost trade and redressing the balance somewhat.  It is easy to get the impression from reading the forums that a large proportion of those who trade do well most of the time and do very well fairly frequently.  The most likely reason for that in my opinion is that people don't tend to report their losses.  I say this because it might be tempting for those not trading to join in the fun because it's 'so easy' to make loads.  I'm not saying it's not - just that you may not be getting a representative impression just from reading the forums!

I should make it clear for anyone keen to take any of my 'wisdom' on board that I am not a trader and have never had much success trading.  However I have spent a lot of time learning enough about it to be comfortable not trading!* To the extent that I have a 'bank' is in bitcoin and I am delighted to have not lost - neither on the way up nor the way down simply by holding!

* Just as the book that has 'made' me most money is John Mullins' The New Business Road Test: What Entrepeneurs and Executives Should Do Before Writing a Business Plan - not because I have had many successful business ventures (or even one) since reading it but because I've not kept trying loads of apparently brilliant business ideas of mine on whim meaning I've stopped wasting time and money on ones that were almost certainly to have failed!