I do not think that is the answer..... inflation is a bullish factor for BTC, and arguably the other factors you list.


Also, you only mention downtrend, volatility is a two way thing, otherwise we would not be having this discussion.


The thing that usually would be the answer is liquidity.... arguably the BTC market needs to grow in size, and liquidity to handle the velocity that runs through it........ and there is an argument that options and futures can be introduced,  that could help.... though, that there is a two way sword.... we want the dog to wag the tail, and not the other way around.

ps, oh and of course the speculation.... and that too is a two way sword  and almost like a difficulty adjustment.. I guess you can argue it both ways, without the volatility you may have less speculators, but then without the such extreme volatility you may have more inflows from conservative money (I am sure these guys know about stop losses ffs) ...but over time, how this would balance out? hard to say. I mentioned in an earlier post, say BTC returns 7%  year, would it still be considered so "hot" ? I mean I guess what else there is to compare it to, in a yield starved world, if it was a stable 7% a year, that could be attractive for some. at 7% a year you double your money in 10. But you see the "dilemma" ?  If at reduced volatility, which would come with increase market size, volume, and market mechanisms (futures, options) then those explosive returns would be gone... fine for old market participants that got in much lower, but less fine , for new market participants...

You see, you cannot really have it both ways.

I guess, ultimately BTC could become more stable, if it is to continue growing... and decouple from the dollar more.. and in which case the people who got in early, are happy, they had their run, and it was a home run, and the newcomers to BTC, will just be happy with hard money...


But its a thought.


What do we suppose the critical number is for BTC, to become "less volatile"  and, how much volatility is acceptable ? desirable ?


OR , does the market continue to have 82.5%  swings top to bottom ?



....and how BIG could the market get, before we get to  point where 82.5% swings top to bottom become world economy crashing , you know, at some point, like I said, if its going to grow, as it grows, it would make sense for it become less volatile.







  

Welcome to the world, baby boy, I'll paint you red and white and blue
The indoctrination starts as soon as you come out the womb
Pretty quick we'll make you stupid with curriculums at school
And if the classroom doesn't do the trick, we'll make you watch the news

Pick your team, right or left, pick the red pill or the blue

You can vote, but even if you win, still everyone will lose
Don't forget to buy designer because Gucci makes you cool

We prioritize material belongings over truth
Get a job that you can't stand so you can buy some cans of food

Go overseas and die for freedom, there's some oil we could use
Our democracy exists so that you think that you could choose
But our algorithms make you do what we want you to do

What's the problem, you're depressed? Society has you confused?
We got medication for you that you'll probably abuse

Go get married to a lady who also don't have a clue
And pump out a few babies that are just the same as you

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all

Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong
Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all
Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

Welcome to the world, baby girl, I'll paint you pink if that's okay
We'll encourage self-destruction through the music that you play

We divided all the men by tryin' politics and race
And honestly, it's workin' awesome, so for you we'll do the same
Never teachin' you to love yourself, inject you full of hate

Objectify your sexuality then blame you for the rape

And weaponize the differences that make our men and women great
And just to screw with you, erase the genders, everyone's the same
We'll empower you with rights to vote and fight for equal pay
Then have the men turn into women and you'll fight for them again
But you thought you had it figured out, but everything has changed

Welcome to the system, please enjoy your stay
Here's a Bible and a bottle of the cheapest booze we make
Find a man who can take care of you to fill the holes we made
Buy a house and settle down, fulfill your duty, procreate
And make a couple babies who will also do the same

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all
Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all
Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

Welcome to the world, everybody, I'ma paint you black and white
I'ma make you hate each other so that everyone will fight
I'ma give you all religion, let the righteous find the light

But I will also give you science to oppose the Word of Christ
And I'ma give you borders, they're imaginary lines
If you cross them, go to war and win when everybody dies

And I'ma give you money that you'll value more than life
And let the one percent have everything while you fight to survive
And then I'll give you politics, I'll call it left and right

And while you divide yourselves, I will conquer both the sides
Can't you see? I'm the system, my whole purpose is divide

What you choose will never matter because everything is mine

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all

Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all

Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

Welcome to the system, everyone's a victim
Doesn't matter if you're black or white, it hates you all

Here inside the system, violence is a symptom
Fighting for what's right, but somehow everyone is wrong

yer ain't bad....  not quite https://youtu.be/ENBX_v1Po1Y good, but not bad either

Ken Griffin (Citadel)  – Bitcoin /regulation and various


https://youtu.be/73IeQW_E10w



....another one bites the dust

....and whatever is on that asteroid they will eventually snag

Also, we are at quarterly expiration

At which point, does BTC reach less volatility?


Would you embrace this or no?


Judging by some of the comments in here over the years, some of you defo seem to not like volatility... least not when it is working against you (price down)


Personally, I see it as a feature.... one that people seem to forget for some reason .... "this time is different"



How would you feel, with less volatility?......  what do I mean by that ? well lets call it , not an average high to low of 82.5% , for example...


But one day, you would think that "it will be different" , even potentially desirable ? (for some anyway)



How about you? Do you long for less volatility (yeah, that includes two way price movement)  or are you "happy" with the current volatility?


I had long assumed, that, eventually the volatility will dampen, as more and more value becomes locked in.....and I still assume this.... though starting to wonder , where that tipping point could be.... and what , pushes it there? is it actually traditional instruments like futures/options etc?  


How do you guys feel about it?


Personally I like the volatility, and also I personally feel that people should be linking cycle lows, rather than cycle highs to "chart" bitcoin

ps, what if that volatility were to become say 7% between cycles, as in each cycle BTC high, or low , moves up by 7%...  or a 10 year doubling time ?

Like this too

Nice post, thanks for the thoughtfulness.


I am open to it.... I am open to other methodology too..... I am not the highlander,  there CAN be more than one.... maybe even there SHOULD be? (but that is another discussion)


One thing though, some of the issues all this will solve, are NOT GARBAGE, I do not consider them garbage problems and I do not consider the eventual solutions to be garbage either. My hope/vision here is a more inclusive system, that reaches each and every person that wishes to connect to it, and makes it easier for them. Along with inclusivity, and the opportunity this could bring, especially to the "unbanked" , but across the board......there are also liquidity benefits too, along with decentralisation and distribution and disintermediation. So I firmly believe that these things are utterly worthy, and indeed are born of the same ethos as BTC.


* I Like this line



Anyway, I honestly do not mind how we get there, I just hope, and am interested in getting there, and I enjoy the experimentation, and the thought process.


Finally, last thought....... and I would like to disconnect it from the conversation above.... but......... if we were to play a thought experiment out, what would "better than Bitcoin" look like?  and I wonder, how many would be able to evaluate and process a token, cryptocurrency, or even a totally new concept.... should one come up?  Same with, pointing out or finding, evaluating weaknesses in Bitcoin.... are they things that should be acknowledged ? or even explored ? and ways to fill the gap, or improve on Bitcoin ? even if it is via simplification rather than adding bells and whistles..  I will be honest with you, personally, I try and force myself into thinking of Bitcoin or any other project or cryptocurrency etc like this. I mean, I love it....but , I am not married to it. What if there were a BETTER way to do things (NO NOT SAYING ITS "SHITCOINS" NOT AT ALL) , but just like people used to love gold, and yeah give it 5000 years lol, and we eventually come up with BTC.... lol. I wonder what the next step looks like ? Very large chances are I will never know, and I will be dead as the dodo by then... but I still think about it.

Not arguing about base layer etc , I just see that "tokens" will replace things like shares. Does this tick the box of what is considered a "cryptocurrency" no and in most cases won't.


Yep. It is not just tokenisation that will need to happen, but also all the infrastructure to facilitate it.

Will there be massive regulatory hurdles along the way, no doubt.

Again, it is not the same as BTC, not even trying to be.

Will there be tokens with utility, maybe....  things change.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-tokenization-of-the-world-starts-now

Everything is going to become tokenised imo...


I am personally here for it.


Would be nice if they could dismantle the stockmarket/shares as we know it today, remove all the middlemen and democratise access ....


It might be just a dream, but it would be a good imo.


....is this the same thing as BTC ? NO ! , I do not believe anyone thinks so, and I do not think anyone should be confused by the two. Only BTC is BTC, and only BTC can be taken seriously for doing what it does out of ALL of the cryptocurrencies... it has won the race, and likely that will never change, least not for a long long long time.


.... will this "tokenisation of everything" look like "shitcoins" today ? I hope not.


..... a man can dream.


.... things do not stay the same...... just think, once upon a time, BTC did not even exist.....now look at it.


.... I personally hope to see , what we now call "shitcoins" to flourish, to innovate, and to fix problems that exists in the world... completely different problems that BTC solves, and has no intention of solving. (like replacing the stock market, this is not something that "BTC solves" it does not want to solve, and it has nothing to do with BTC)



.....Rome was not built in a day.






 

Ahh, even cooler...I know someone that worked on code at the VISTA observatory including on site at the observatory, code for aligning the mirror

I dare not look at the wall of text, but ...  obvs

1)



93.5% approx

2)



75.54%

3)



85.78%

4)



83.94%


5)




71.32%

6)




and now this cycle TBD%

All images zoomable upon click and click

1) Sounds like you have a great wife.... hodl.

2) What was your timeframe? if your retirement timeframe was not a plan to retire 2022,2023,2024..... then bro it is likely NO SWEAT at all.

3) Remember the halvening cycles, check the halvening cycles  vs  the price chart


4) If at all possible, set a price alert , set and forget , see where things are at run up to and post the next halvening


5) Do not dwell on the lost opportunity cost too much..... spilt milk


6) It might well go down more from here, it might not, but it might..... but see point 2 above ^


7) Remember you could have invested at 69K....


ps- oh, and the corn may well surprise you when you least expect it

pps- If you have a pet, a cat or a dog, or a horse... enjoy them, spend more time with them, make sure they are really happy, be their buddy, they are wonderful calming creatures (most of them lol) .....that really is priceless.

ppps- In a couple of years you will likely look back at your purchases and be saying "I am a fuckin genius"

All the best
e

Awesome image! very very cool !

If I had to guess, I would dare say that Ol' Ray, had more than his fair share of the devils dandruff over the decades, and all the rest...if you factor that into it, the drugs, booze, rich food etc.... he probably spent a lot of time sat on his ass too.

For the love of god are you some sort of sadomasachist? or a sadist ?




RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUN!!!!!!!!