Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.
In order to assign a probability you need to have some data points/variables to plug in an equation. That doesn't sound like speculation to me  Here comes the test....  |
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Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.
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Cliched I know but I’d say it’s just the end of the beginning. Buckle up!
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The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.
Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level. The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower. At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.
These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great. They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time. That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.
This bro lifts |
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For those following along at home, I was wrong about the 3k one, its actually gone much higher! note that if we do get the strong correction here then this run up will have been the first "mini" run up before the actual "real" one - which at the time I said would be driven by wall street - that takes us to 6 figures. Maybe. |
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Also for the various "but on exchange X it was a gajillion dollars" I tend to look at stamp because I'm in europe and and for me it represents the most stable price, offering as it does only to exchange money for BTC/LTC and now BCH. I find it to be the most honest reflection of the market price, one of the oldest exchanges been around since gox. I know other exchanges traded at a premium, but thats exactly what it was a *premium* to what you might call the actual price. I watched the GDAX run up live and observed how no other exchanges went with it, and then 15 mins later poof it was gone. So yeah, by those exchanges I was miles out. If thats what you want to think |
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In the end there will be no meaningful dollar value, because it will have been replaced so $1m was the only option! |
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<snip>
And guess what, this is EXACTLY what you would expect from a new technology heading towards mass adoption. This is exactly what an S-curve looks like. Normally an S-curve doesn't have boom-bust cycles because normally things that are mass adopted are just products you buy and aren't an asset that you buy a "share" of and so there is no market and therefore no speculation which is what causes booms and busts.
<snip>
Thankyou for schooling me so hard on Bitcoin price being an s-curve overlaid with hype cycle. I don't think I ever saw that, except for that time 3 years ago when i posted a very long thread explaining it. Or that other time when I explained that the fractal hype cycle just repeats but each time is bigger because the weight of the market means there is more inertia. What you might also notice in that thread, is that I'm counting the run-up to 266 as a pre-cursor to the subsequent "real" run-up to $1260. That's because I was also around when the run up to ~$9 was followed by a mini-crash to ~$5 So where others are comparing this run up to the $1260 one, I'm saying its actually the $260 one. If it goes back to 6-7k or even 3-4k I'm still calling it a "mini-crash". Can you see the implications of that? Can you see how even though someone think bitcoin is going to at least 6/7 figures they can still think clearly enough to understand how it is possible that it might retrace 80% following a run-up like we just saw. So where you mistake me for a bear, I am in fact probably one of the most bullish on Bitcoin that there is. Nothing's changed except the name of the client that follows the bitcoin white paper imho. This thread isn't about that though, but you did bring it up I reject entirely your characterisation of the minor-corrections during the run up as "crashes". It make me think you have never been through an actual bitcoin *crash* let alone watched thousands of dollars evaporate, all the whilst HODLing. |
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You hit it, sgbett.
The bears are out of the cave.
Everybody, get your rifles.
I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66  It will hit support levels now, in a flash crash. Something around 7-9k. But it will be a short window. Then it will rise again, as always. If it continues downward then I think there's a bit of friction at $10.5k but if that doesn't hold then probably $7.6ish I've still not-convinced it wont do a massive u-turn though  |
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You hit it, sgbett.
The bears are out of the cave.
Everybody, get your rifles.
I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66 |
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We hadn't even gone vertical yet, no signs of a blow-off top.
are you sure?  |
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Bingo.
This guy knows. He is TERA. I 'member.
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7-8k next week. We'll get a bounce from BTFDers, it will retrace. Then we go lower to 3-4k. Then we have to endure another long cold winter. Maybe I am Jon Snow. Maybe I know nothing  |
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Lol @ proudhon being a bear. YHBT
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My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows. Yeah, but being 17.500 now on coinmarketcap and somewhat over 16500 on most exchanges and you calling a low of 3400 could make you loose credibility. The Coreans are very weary BTW, being over 21000 for they and impatiently waiting for said correction. Controversy for the sake of it is not always good, in fact more times the opposite. (BTW, said correction did happen a few hours ago, but recovered in one hour. So you were kinda right, just not up with the speed.) Hah, my credibility went out the window a long time ago  WRT price - I'm pretty much bitstamp or GTFO They seem the least prone to shenanigans, since gox they have always been (for me) the "honest" market price. |
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Funny thing is, all of us including me are expecting a massive correction but what if it doesn't happen? What if we have a minor correction and continue up throughout next year or even longer?
Then you'll be just fine, cos you HODL right |
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I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!
That is exactly the issue. It could be tonight, it could be at 40k. That's why I say be careful, and not that the top is in. I have seen enough Bitcoin rallies to know better than the euphoric statements in here. Yes LOTS of new people are coming in, but that is part of it. LOTS of potential top buyers. More pain that leads to more selling when the red candles elongate. Imagine getting caught up in the mania, taking a loan, or using savings, or inheritance and buying Bitcoins at 16k a pop. Price hits 20k, you think this is gonna be great and you are so smart. Then the price starts to fall. It bounces to 15.5k and you think "good, it's coming back" then it turns down again. You've just become a bag holder. I know it'll come back eventually, but most will just panic sell at a loss. There is very little regulation in Bitcoin, and none at the exchange engine level. There are no circuit breakers. No halting trade, just price changes that can be YUUGE. It usually takes only one 10 or 20% dump to mindfuck the sentiment right out of someone. Bitcoin has those all the time, so here, we see 30 or 40 or 50% dumps at times. The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes. They are there to gauge the market strength. "How fast can this recover?", "oh, pretty quickly, not yet". Eventually, it will drop and not return for a long time. The real crash is only the initial dumps of a bear market. People who are new since the $200 area don't even know what to expect. Their responses to this subject can't be taken at face value because they don't know what this is capable of. They'll be easy to find later. They'll be the ones asking why Bitcoin price is going down or what the bad news was. Hold or don't... I don't even care. Just be careful. Agreed - wish we could tip round here - in particular: The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes.Every time people say that, it just increments my "chance top is in" counter. |
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I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!
My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows. |
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The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.
Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. ( despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension) could just keep going up! See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash. Try harder next time  Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin. Good catch.. another altcoin bagholder attempting to get in at a cheaper price. Im sorry for your loss OP. We are not going to retest $3500 ever again, there are way too many people waiting to get in at higher prices, we have seen predicted dip prices to never be hit because people always get in before the predicted number is tested (because the market thinks other people will do the same, and this drives resistance points higher than expected). No, it wasn't a good catch at all because neither he, nor you can apparently parse simple english. Or seem to understand the uncertain future. I'm speculating - its the speculation subforum, i'm pretty familiar with it. I didn't (and rarely) claim to be right. |
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