Yep bitmain, pls stop with the D3. It doesnt make sense to buy or sell it...

That doesnt make sense. No reason why a 3rd party would write software, develop, produce and prototype miners for halong for free lol.


That doesnt sound right either because their telegram has like 600+ users only back max then and some of those people were skeptical, just like this thread. I was there too and I didnt order. I dont believe any large investor in their right mind will place a big order without even see-ing 1 miner being delivered. It isnt even a tested product. I doubt they have 50million worth of orders or anything like that. That is just marketing talk.


I dont think bitmain believes it either. Bitmain has flooded the market with bitcoin miners like V9 for cheap. Litecoin mining is now alot more profitable than Bitcoin mining, unlike the past. Bitmain is trying to take down its competitor. It is not something they havent done before though. Now I fear they come up with an S11, which will be bad for S9 owners. And maybe they will give some 500 dollar coupon or something for S11 buyers for those who have S9. Just my gut feeling on this. If Halong came to the market 1 year earlier, it would have been better for them. They are kinda late.

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Yep, they did at first. The smart ones are those that sold out early but most sold out only after huge losses or near bankruptcy. Everyone expected to do better than their competitor. In shipowners case, everything from the shipowners to shipyards suffered. Tons of layoffs and some went bankrupt. Survivors lost alot of money.

Another thing shippers did back then when oil price was above 100 bucks was to spend more on more fuel efficient vessels since fuel cost are around 40-60% of operating costs. Unfortunately, everyone had the same idea to outmaneuver their competitors lol. That increased the tonnage overcapacity further as they competed more. I believe this will also be the case if btc price were to suddenly jump. Everyone will wanna buy an ASIC, news sources will trumpet it and mining difficulty will skyrocket to these bad numbers again.

I dont know any bitcoin miner in salvador. Are u sure it is worth it to use mineral oil? Mining profitability is horrible now.

Right now, if bitcoin price rise up suddenly to 20k, a huge flood of mining equipment orders will flood the asic manufacturers. In 3 weeks to 2 months, a ton of asics arrive and mining goes back to this bad profitability or close to it. Only bitcoin holders win. Thats the problem with overcapacity.

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So, is it tradeable now?

Pay me 40 bucks and i send u a 200 dollar coupon lol.

Well, my thoughts. The problem is OVERCAPACITY of mining equipment.


From mid Nov to mid Feb, the difficulty went from 1.4T to 2.8T. Price didnt double from Nov to Feb.

-Price of btc rose 10x from a year ago and mining difficulty increased to keep up. BTC price isnt going to increase 10x this year, so, there is EXCESS mining equipment for sale.
-ASICS production capacity has increased greatly and this is without new manufacturers like Dragonmint miners coming in later.
-This thing has 6 months warranty, so, there will be miners that dont break even, regardless of electricity input cost.
-GPUs make more than asics now and it used to be GPUs make half of wat ASICS make. This is because GPU has a shortage now, but ASICS have excess capacity.  
-Current btc mkt cap is 155 billion, a 10x rise makes it 1.55 trillion and a further 10x rise means 15.5 trillion. That isnt possible as gold price is only 7.8 trillion. Max btc mkt cap is around 7.8 trillion and that make take years to reach if it does occur.
-People are used to btc already. It isnt hyped up in news like last year. So, price increases are slower assuming they continue.


That being said, any bitcoin price increase will be accompanied by alot of new miners coming in and thus, bitcoin mining will never be as profitable as before. There is too much stock of mining equipment. The biggest issue is if new stronger miners come in to make old ones obsolete.

This reminds me of the baltic dry index and bulk carriers

http://static3.uk.businessinsider.com/image/54cb8c4edd0895065b8b45b7-1099-514/baltic%202.png

The baltic dry index (BDI) is around 1200 now. It was above 10k at one point. Huge losses for shipowners.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38653546


Miners will be taking this attitude more going forward lol. And there will be few or no winners. In shipping case, shipowners spent more money on more fuel efficient vessels when they were available, thinking they got an edge. The competitors did the same. Many shipowners went bankrupt though some survive but with losses or tiny profits. It is gonna be the same here if new more efficient miners come out quickly.

Many shipowners and shipyards have gone bankrupt, similar to how some miners and asic manufacturers have gone bankrupt. Shipowners had alot more overcapacity than miners I believe. And unfortunately, mining will now enter the same overcapacity issue stage. Low electricity cost is an edge but not a huge edge when the difference is like 5cents per kwh for big miners over home miners. Overcapacity just means intense competition and far less winners.


In my opinion, there is even less reason to be optimistic if u consider that LTC/BTC is going to halve in 2019/2020 and it halves further 4 years later. ETH risks going to POS in the future and stop mining. To me, this looks like the last leg of the race. Companies like bitmain are already going for AI as well.

Anyways, to each his own. If u are optimistic still, good for u. I dont see it. I have never seen anything good come out of overcapacity in any market.

Just my 2 cents.

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Good point on the March comparisons but it has gotten worse than before by quite alot though. Electricity cost isnt a big factor with these kinda difficulty increases.

I calculated 4 months breakeven for antminers around middle last year. It is at least 10+ months now and this is without difficulty increases. And there is major asic overcapacity going forward, thus, bitcoin mining will never have good profitability like before. Hmmm the biggest winners are still bitcoin holders though. From 1050 to 9168, it made 9x the money just from holding. Miners didnt make that much at all.

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U did not pay your value added tax on the shipment?? Looks like some kinda mix-up. U should have been charged.

No offense phillip but not all of is have a solar array for power like u do. Mining was easily more than 2 times more profitable a few months back. The numbers are bad now and this is without taking into account future upcoming difficulty increaaes. There will be those who never break even. Mining at loss is no fun. Bitcoin holders have made alot more than miners in the last year.

U didnt ask why such a question was asked. Have u paid VAT? Because i believe the VAT is the same for personal or commercial use. This is an odd question

I am surprised this occurs. Has UPS solved it yet? Have you paid your VAT? That might be the issue.

Dude, ROI in less than a year is not guaranteed. U dont understand that difficulty increases as time passes by and new stronger machines may come out later to make yours obsolete. That is the bet. That is why ROI needs to be short. Difficulty does not remain the same throughout. It increases faster than bitcoin price.

Yep, so with 13 bucks profit per month, we are never breaking even lol. And it is a loss making machine now that dash price has fallen. Even at few hundred bucks a piece, there is no profit unless u have free electricity...
And with new units being sold to raise difficulty, it is going to get worse. Are there people who buy it because they steal electricity?

I got a feeling other pools will add the asicboost feature eventually. Maybe antpool wont though, since it is a competitor. But now i worry that they will make an S11 on a 10nm chip with this asicboost.  The problem is bitcoin price isnt moving higher to justify mining much now. The market is oversupplied. I wonder if dragonmint will recoup the 30million (accordin to their website) that they spent. If they make 1000/2000 usd profit per miner, they will need to sell 30,000/15,000 miners to break even.

If dragon goes into a price war with bitmain, they will likely lose and difficulty will increase. Miners will buy as the price goes down like in D3 case. For the D3, it was sold at 5k, 2.6k and 1.4k for last batch and i believe no one broke even. And now, the D3 is on sale for 550 usd...about 350 usd with coupon. Innosilicon has a dash miner that is twice as strong and an Litecoin miner that is 20% stronger than bitmains but the D3 and L3+ dominate due to far better pricing power. Well, lets hope dragon dont go into a price war and they recoup their investment on their other miners. Just my speculation.

Sigh, why sell D3 miners when current D3 owners are not profitable as it is.... That is juz bad.
Innosilicon has a stronger dash miner but are selling it at a ridiculously high price for wat it does. Dash, in general isnt worth mining.

That is why i mine btc and use some btc to buy lcc. U get more that way.

Hmmm it seems there is nothing stopping canaan,bitmain, innosilicon, gmo, etc from also joining this patent alliance and making a miner that is 20% faster. Since its full hash power is for btc only and it hashes at 1/4 speed without asicboost, perhaps there will be a btc miner and a sha256 miner for bch and other sha256 coins going forward.

I dont think it makes sense to buy new equipment unless it is something like the antminer A3, a niche that did ROI. But if u are unlucky, it can end up like the D3, which will never ROI. I believe it is best not to buy too much of one type of equipment. As for btc, it is just too popular and new equipment may possibly not ROI also. It depends of course.

I find this asicboost weird too since they have to modify the pool for it to show the 16th hashrate. I guess normal miners gotta check if they still get the same returns on slushpool once there are alot of dragonmints on it since it works 16th on asicboost pools and lesser on other pools. If the dragon miners do less work but are getting paid for more in those asicboost pools, then, all other miners on that pool should have less returns. Best to double check later on. U never know how it is with new tech.