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441  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Will dogecoin become like Bitcoin? on: August 02, 2014, 07:58:49 AM
Doge hype is over and won't come back.

I see what you are saying, but it does continue to have a strong community behind Doge.
Also, from what i've read, they have some parties already figuring out ways to put them in the right communities to make it valuable for people.

ie. Tipping app (FB), live mmo game that lets you mine.

there may be more now.. so.. who knows...

it'll never be as high as bitcoin, but it definitely has the potential to be one of the few crypto-currencies left standing after many randos start washing out...

The coins were supported by GPU miners alone. Now, even the miners are abandoning the ship.

442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000 on: August 02, 2014, 07:56:18 AM
Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

Holding 1 bitcoin just in case it happen.
443  Economy / Economics / Re: Selling call options on your bitcoins on: August 01, 2014, 01:10:08 PM
I am still very much open to writing call options (covered) for shorter terms (at max. 1 month). Just PM me or reply in the other thread and we can work something out.

(will probably only reply tomorrow though)

Covered call is same as naked put.

If you are trying to benefit from the interest portion, you can check out ICBIT on future contract.


As a bitcoin holder Naked short put is not the same as covered call.

Basically I would be levereging my losses when issuing short puts, while covered calls wouldn't influence my downside at all.

Observed from a "Zero asset" position, your argument obviously holds true, as the payoff of both should in theory be the same.

Additional, I think that people pay a way higher than fair premium for calls, but don't do that for puts. You can see that on bitfinex, where shorting is nearly cost free!


Creating a new position to cover your existing asset is synthetically equivalent to selling your entire bitcoin holding and then naked shorting same amount of put. Risk and profit will be identical, only difference is the commission and the spread of the option.

If you already have bitcoin, assuming the spread on call and put are identical, then selling call to make it a "covered call" strategy is of course cheaper than selling all your bitcoin then shorting some puts.


Shorting bitcoin itself is entire different thing. It costs little to short because everyone is expecting the price will go to the moon. That is also the reason why it is hard to make a market for option. No one will pay for put while anyone that is risk caution will not write naked call, the spread on each call and put will make it impossible for risk neutral strategy called "box".



444  Economy / Economics / Re: Selling call options on your bitcoins on: August 01, 2014, 09:55:21 AM
I am still very much open to writing call options (covered) for shorter terms (at max. 1 month). Just PM me or reply in the other thread and we can work something out.

(will probably only reply tomorrow though)

Covered call is same as naked put.

If you are trying to benefit from the interest portion, you can check out ICBIT on future contract.

arbitrage001,

Are you using ICBIT currently with success?
Feedback on this forum about ICBIT haven't been exactly stellar:
 
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=254675.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=164255.0


Yes. Heard the accusation on manipulating settlement price on closing date.

This is true for any exchange, be it bitcoin, commodity and currency future/option on contract settlement date. The only thing differ is the players (could be either exchange, market maker, suppliers or the speculators.)

I am only interested in the interest rate component of the contract, and I don't wait for the settlement date to close out my position. So the scam/cheat, if exists, do not really have any effect on my trading strategy.

One thing I am not happy with ICBIT is the withdrawal. They don't pay network fee so withdrawal confirmation takes anywhere from 4 to 12 hours.



EDIT:
For the bucket shop accusation, it has no effect on me as I don't use leverage and hence zero chance of force liquidation.
445  Economy / Economics / Re: Selling call options on your bitcoins on: August 01, 2014, 09:48:07 AM
I am still very much open to writing call options (covered) for shorter terms (at max. 1 month). Just PM me or reply in the other thread and we can work something out.

(will probably only reply tomorrow though)

Covered call is same as naked put.

If you are trying to benefit from the interest portion, you can check out ICBIT on future contract.


How is a covered call the same as a naked put?

You really need to study, practice and observe various option strategies before trying it using real money.

There are good reasons why option isn't popular on bitcoin and isn't feasible for exchange to allow option trading.
446  Economy / Economics / Re: Selling call options on your bitcoins on: August 01, 2014, 05:51:13 AM
I am still very much open to writing call options (covered) for shorter terms (at max. 1 month). Just PM me or reply in the other thread and we can work something out.

(will probably only reply tomorrow though)

Covered call is same as naked put.

If you are trying to benefit from the interest portion, you can check out ICBIT on future contract.
447  Economy / Speculation / Re: GABI to start trading on 9/1 on: August 01, 2014, 05:46:10 AM
they've had heavy interest and are expecting $200MM under management in a year's time.

Is the $200MM pure speculation by them or do they have confirmed some amount?

That is a lot of money added to the system.

They might be waiting for a correction. The rest of us can buy on every dip and sell on every 10-20% rally.
448  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap Android Phone as cold storage? on: July 31, 2014, 07:12:21 PM
The storage on phone might get corrupted.

A safer way is use Armory and print it out on a piece of paper.
449  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014? on: July 31, 2014, 07:08:27 PM
everything follows a similar pattern

there is a bear trap and argentina defaults...


Do you believe this is a Cyprus moment

They un-pegged their currency and had bank holiday the last time they defaulted. The county population suddenly lose a lot of wealth over night.


It wouldn't surprise me if they confiscate bank account balance this time.
450  Other / Politics & Society / Re: To hate Islam... on: July 30, 2014, 11:42:35 AM
But why pick on or single out Islam? It's when you do that people may start to think you're a racist or islamaphobe or whatever. Christianity has a darker history than probably any other religion. Christian fundamentalists probably kill more people than islam does as well, they just do it with bombs and other such measures.

I'm alive at 2014, not at 1500-something. The deeds of the past are unchangeable, so it makes no sense to keep up with Christianity, other than keep it under quarantine to make sure it doesn't happen again.
And still, two wrongs doesn't make a right!

Evolution is the new religion in 2014 with Charles Darwin taking the Jesus role.
451  Other / Politics & Society / Re: HSBC: the bank that likes to say no to Muslim accounts on: July 30, 2014, 11:36:56 AM
Maybe because muslim accounts always associated with terrorism. It is not your lose, it is HSBC who lose on this one. There are many other banks around that cater muslims. There are many billionaire muslims why not create your own bank.
HSBC actually does cater terrorists.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/07/16/hsbc-helped-terrorists-iran-mexican-drug-cartels-launder-money-senate-report-says/

Terrorists that are motivated by hate and not money.

Drug cartels are a lot easier to handle.
452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin be around in 5 years? If so, what's its price? on: July 30, 2014, 11:33:54 AM
10M USD per coin. And a slice of bread would be around 500k usd.
453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Still great time to sell litecoin and bitcoin. on: July 30, 2014, 11:32:07 AM
A good spreading strategy is short litecoin and long bitcoin.
454  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Best PoS coin to invest in? on: July 28, 2014, 07:20:29 PM
If the risk of holding bitcoin is high, then the risk of holding alt coin is twice as much as all alt are denominated in btc.

I think the community has general agreed that most alt coins (pos, pow or pos/pow) are pump and dump.
455  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Fox News viewers are uninformed. NPR listeners are not. on: July 28, 2014, 07:11:58 PM
There are always 2 sides on every coin/issue.
456  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC interest rates ? on: July 27, 2014, 08:55:58 AM
7% is rather low considering the risk.

457  Economy / Economics / Re: Solution to poverty - Socialism or Capitalism? on: July 27, 2014, 08:49:18 AM
The solution is not capitalism or socialism.

Feudalism managed by a wise king can beat capitalism.
458  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which city will be the center of crypto currency on: July 27, 2014, 08:43:17 AM
Moscow. Putin should support bitcoin to by pass USD.
459  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Americans Getting Poorer on: July 27, 2014, 08:42:38 AM
Problem is, poor people in the US still are way better than middle class elsewhere.
460  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Putin facing multi-million pound legal action over alleged role in MH17 crash on: July 27, 2014, 08:41:00 AM
How can that work out? Suing someone in USA for something that happened outside USA were no party is related to USA?

And no way to enforce the outcome of the ruling.

In case anyone do not realize, Russia has bigger gun than UK and Malaysia. And US army has stretched too thin to be any use.
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