Fundamentals always trump all the technical analysis and predictive analysis like the halving+1year model that you are describing.

Lightning network is coming this year, it's already on the mainnet and it's going to be huge, this is enough to get bitcoin viable for day to day payments, as we hit the mainstream news we will get another all time high this year, which will make your model obsolete as we will not need to wait until 2021 for another all time high.

I don't know a single one. Im not convinced yet about cashing out a single satoshi. What if the accountants make a mess and you end up in trouble? because as far as I know, if the accountants make a mistake, you will be the responsible, not to them, I just don't trust accountants, don't even trust the taxmen to be frank, this is too new, there is nothing clear, I don't want to get my bitcoins counterfeited or stolen away from me in the process, it's not fair.

Where did you get the bitcoins from?

If you bought them in exchanges, you will need the receipts of each buy, all the trading history etc.

If you got paid in BTC for products or services, you will need to prove these are legal.

At least in some countries that's how it works.

Yep it only gets even more ridiculous when you factor in the forks.

We have money that we don't even know that we own, because there are forks all the time, so if you have 10 BTC, you have also 10 BTC worth of whatever other new fork of the hour that someone did and you are supposed to report these too, and reporting your actual BTC is already a problem if like I said before you have some mixed inputs in a bitcoin mixer from years ago when you did some testing, and you have some missing trading history due dead exchanges... it becomes a nightmare that keeps growing as your transaction history is the same on another different forked blockchain which would need you to move all of your BTC into other BTC addresses before accessing the forked coins.. it gievs me an hadache to even begin to think about ordering all of my transactions, forks, altcoin tradings... it's hell really. Fuck, I just wanted to buy a god damn house in a couple of years, looks like im going to have problems with it. We'll see what I can do about it. Im ok with paying taxes, but im not ok with the government stealing half of my earnings because they decide there isn't enough proof that I obtained them posting in here, trading altcoins in Mintpal or selling drugs, it's not fair, I worked hard for all of my coins and I did it all legal, I want my house.

Im not saying I don't trust myself, I hold my private keys, but not everyone trusts themselves, therefore there is a need for "crypto banks", like it or not, otherwise why isn't Xapo filling for bankruptcy? get real, there is a market there, a huge one actually.

And here we go again. I don't know what the hell is going on but we just can't either break out or go below the $10,000 range. We saw a big dump from $11,641 to $10,261, this was an huge red candle, but it has jumped back to $11,000+ territory... I don't believe manipulation of this precision is possible, I think the market is just uncertain to go either way.

We should be see a capitulation of the ongoing triangular formation before January 29th, so Monday we should have a result, either a breakout or a dip to $7,500.

The fact that other people care is proof of how technical analysis is relevant. If other people think that that analysis is a plausible outcome, the analysis is a potential self-fulfilling prophecy, and this is the basis for all technical analysis as far im concerned, in fact I cannot fathom any other reason as to why TA would predict anything.

Every time Bitcoin gets close to the sub $10,000 range I have a small heart attack, as it means we could be about to break major resistances all the way to the $7,000 area. It looks like a typical no-trade zone for me. As long as we don't go either way I wouldn't take any decisions.

Keep your cash and wait for a dip or for a breakout would be the classic move in this situation. Double bottoms in bitcoin are rare but they can happen, but still I would apply a no trade range for the $10,000-$14,000 area approximately.

Xapo is a crypto bank in a sense. They are custodians of thousands if not hundred of thousands of private keys which are held by them, and it's their responsibility to keep them safe. Apparently they have an underground cold storage bunker somewhere in switzerland, we have at least picture evidence and im sure there are videos so we can assume that it's all real, im not sure if they've been audited. I would know all of these details if I was choosing them to hold my money obviously, but the idea is that they are indeed a bank. You should also look with massive detail about how much of what you are holding will they cover in case of bankruptcy. Since they are a private company, it could be that you would lose everything in case they file for bankruptcy, so have that in mind.

They are needed, like it or not. As you said, we need loans, we need creditors, and we need to be able to hire someone to hold custodian of our keys because we don't trust themselves (some people find it easier to pay someone to hold your bitcoins rather than having to trust yourself to remember passwords, for example I have lost access to some hard drives which I encrypted and now I can't access them because I forgot the password) so yes banks are needed. The question is, are they going to adapt, or are they going to try to endlessly try to crush bitcoin (which is impossible and a waste of time and resources).

Everyday we stay above $11,000 is another won battle, if we keep standing around that area is going to be great news as it would be shown that it cannot be shaken down to -$10,000.

So keep monitoring and look for these key prices, but if you can hold through it, because you never know if there will be an huge bull run out of nowhere, but we do know bitcoin always recovers.

He mentioned the law, so he means that if a big government like the US government would be to go on a press release and claim that Bitcoin is completely banned on all of the US, the price would collapse, and this would most likely happen, but not even in this scenario it would go as low as $100, precisely because there is a ton of people wanting to get at $1000.

And no, $10000 is not exaggerated, BTC is so cheap, $20000 is cheap, $100000 is cheap.

I have learned that I still haven't seen anyone cash out a relevant amount of signature earnings (let's say above $10000) at least in a place that's relevant to me, so I will remain skeptic and just hold it and see how I go about it in the future.

Im still worried about the mixed coins that I did mix to test a mixer out years ago (years ago 1 BTC was worth like $200) and so Im worried about cashing these out then not being able to explain where they came from and getting it counterfeited. Same goes for BTW that I withdrew from dead exchanges or lacking information of the trades in any way. Im not sure if I will ever be able to cash out any of these... so I may have to stick with signature earnings and other coins in which I can clearly trace the origin, otherwise it's extremely risky to cash them out because you don't know what the hell to expect.

BCash has less security because the nodes are centralized, the miners are even more centralized than in Bitcoin, and the developers are really weak compared to the developers involved in Bitcoin.

If you are paranoid about segwit, do not use segwit address, but you will see how nothing wrong will ever happen with segwit. I find it funny how you are concerned about "segwit attack vectors" and don't see how BCash has worse attack vectors, such as spamming the network and cluttering the blockchain with trash to the point that it cannot be downloaded anymore (just like they did with Ethereum, try downloading it from scratch).

It's not that easy. Bitcoin is a global market that never closes, opened 24/7, different forces with different agendas collide. A big government or banker group may want to crash it one side of the world, on the other side they may want to pump it... so there is no easy way to manipulate one way or another and it will be harder as we reach a several trillion market.

Has anyone seen the recent surge to $11500? I just look at Bistamp and we've gone up again, with a bottom of $9222 for this year which happened in January 17th. The last bottom was $9941.
 If we keep making higher bottoms, we could consolidate an uptrend at least in the short term, and this could be the beginning of the recovery for a new all time high, but we must get past the former $13,089 peak (by Bitstamp prices).

Please learn to read, I said anyone putting any amount of money in a bank without a clear way to prove this money was obtained legally is a criminal, and by default, a government will think you are a criminal unless you can prove the former. Notice how I have pointed at several cases of accounts being frozen when they see they came from exchanges, it's because you have to prove that this money is legit.

And yes, cash transactions (of any relevance) are illegal, increasingly in more and more places. And no, you cannot put $200,000 worth of cash in a bank and don't expect problems unless you can prove the origin is legit clearly, same goes for a bitcoin deposit and so on, pretending the opposite is true is actual delusion.


This may be the case in your country (which is pretty weird, because makes money laundering trivial), but at least here you can't pretend to get any amounts of money in bitcoin you want into your bank account claiming that they are from a dead exchange's gains. Otherwise someone could sell a couple millions worth of drugs on the darknet, mix them, cash them out into your bank account and claim they are from a dead exchange's gains.

The burden of proof is on you (which is why I said "government treats you as a criminal by default"), and I doubt "it's from a dead exchange's gains" will cut it, even if it's the truth, which is why im worried about cashing out these coins, or coins which I mixed back in the day to text a mixer. Now there aren't clear traces about these coins.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kodk

It's holding pretty decently so far... first peak on January 10th, correction, and now with a new monthly high to $11.34.

I wonder for how long can they keep hyping this to keep the price up. It will need to get past $17 in order for it to have an higher term bullish perspective, until then it's just a short pump and dump operation.

The bond market is going to crash hard and all the boomers are going to hate themselves at not buying this cheap bitcoin.

Wall Street is irrelevant when it comes to bitcoin, futures markets don't matter, it's a waste of time, they don't move the underlying asset.

I used to use cryptofolio.info but deleted my portfolio because I was getting tired of it, the layout is pretty simple and straightforward but I got bored and now im trying alternatives.

I really hate having to wait for people to vote a coin for it to get listed, I would like to get any coin I want tracked without having to wait for the votes. I need to track all bitcoin forks instantly and not wait for them to get listed for example.

Yeah, but it's pretty obvious that the state is not going to care about what you think about it. You are right that since we can't even pay taxes, it shouldn't be counted as income, shouldn't be any different from virtual tokens in Second Life or poker tokens, but apparently they don't care and you must pay taxes as income, so signature campaigns for instance a repeated activity in time which would qualify as income tax, since we have not declared anything for years, my fear is that once you do you will get a big fine.

If someone has cashed out years of signature earnings (which are now worth a lot due BTC going $10k+) then talk about your experience and say exactly what info they requested and where are you from, also WHEN did you cash out and how much, it's important because I believe back then they would have cared less about details.