ALL MINERS (SCRYPT/ASIC/SCRYPTJANE/BLAKE256) HAVE A COMMON INTEREST TO TELL YOU MINING IS NEVER PROFITABLE.
While that may be true, theoretically, in this case Im truly trying to do the community a service because of the number of newcomers who I see about to get burned, who maybe cant afford it, and I dont think thats good for Bitcoin. People need to have realistic expectations. This isnt some Don Lapre late night infomercial. Go look at a BFL ad if you want that, and marvel at the uncanny resemblance between Don and Josh Zerlan.
This is a public service announcement.
My interest personally in the mining game is not primarily financial. The amount I can or will mine in a month now is maybe .1% of my coins.
Point one. I mine now for the love of the game.
I wanted this discussion to move in another direction - directing people towards avenues where there are healthy profits to be made. I understand its the mining forum, so the discussion has stayed focused on mining, and if thats what you all would like to discuss, Im happy to. I see a lot of people talking about Alt-coin mining, so lets talk about that.
The alt-coin mining forecast has moved from dark and stormy (Aug-Sept) to very sunny (Nov-Dec) back to overcast again. The winds change quickly in the mining game. When Litecoin almost hit $50, I knew there was going to be a tidal wave of GPU orders, as well as a correction in the market. Anyone who has followed mining for some time (and Im a newbie compared to many on here) will attest to this. There were periods, 2-3 years ago when BTC mining was no longer profitable and many bigtime GPU-farm miners dropped out entirely because they could not make ROI (many pro miners only hold onto a tiny % of the total coins they mine, preferring to convert most into fiat immediately). Yes, there was a time when BTC difficulty went down, as far away as that seems now, yes it did really happen (and may again in the future). But I digress...
I had actually dropped out of LTC mining for a while in Sept because I just moved to a nice new place and didnt want to spoil it with PCs all over the place (at this time, I had around 18 cards across 6 rigs). I was content to just watch the BTC-e ticker and do a little day trading. I hadnt sold off my rigs, mostly just due to laziness, they were just still all boxed up from the move. Then as autumn progressed LTC went on a bit of a heater, and when it hit its all time high ($5) I couldnt resist and started firing up rigs. The weather was cooling off and if I just set up a few of them, it would be fairly discreet. AMD had released its r9 series, and being an avid gamer, I always like to try the latest cards and I quickly realized that the 280x was a very nice mining card that while a bit finnicky to tweak, could be undervolted for awesome efficiency. I ordered 4 more and picked up an old mobo, CPU, RAM and PS from a friend who was liquidating his rigs. I set up just a few rigs initially, and then, all of them. Thats the
mining bug. Its like a sickness. Oh well. I was - and still am - back in the game.
But my return to GPU-mining is probably going to be short lived. Many of my cards are older 6950s, and they are starting to have the usual issue - dying fan. I think I even finally killed one of my cards which would be the first time ever for me (Im going to try baking it, which can heal the micro-cracks). The tidal wave of GPUs has hit, and boy did it hit hard. I started LTC mining heavily when the difficulty was 17.
Seventeen. The difficulty now is 4000, and the price is stuck in the $23-24 range (oh the humanity! actually, Im thrilled with anything over $10). I have very little to gain in terms of adding to my stash. I recently had the chance to buy a whole bunch of new-in-box 280x and 7970s for $300 each, which judging from Newegg is a now great deal (lol cause used 7970s were ~$200 on ebay in August) but decided to pass. Why? Two reasons:
1) I looked at the numbers and its marginal. 280x will generate around $100/month in LTC, or roughly 5 LTC. This number will diminish rapidly given how many GPUs are coming online every day. When mining hardware has a ROI of 4 months or so, Im basically indifferent to mining or buying the coins, financially speaking, and anyone who has been in the game for a while will tell you that buying is a hell of lot less work and stress than mining - not to mention the heat and noise if you mine at home. 2) That heat right now is probably saving me $500/month on gas to heat my place, so its much easier to justify. But come April, Im going to shut the whole thing down and sell off all my rigs. The writing is on the wall and I simply cant and dont want to compete with these 100mh datacenter rigs. In 2014, its either go pro or go home. While I sincerely respect the people who have chosen to go fulltime pro, thats not something that interests me at this time. I have other commitments and plans for 2014.
Im optimistic that I will eventually receive my Black Arrow and Alpha Tech ASICs, but if I dont I might actually breathe a sigh of relief. If you have ever had to dip out of a night on the town with your friends because one of your rigs went down and the OCD part of you cant enjoy the evening because of it, you will probably understand. Mining is probably not the most psychologically healthy or mentally stimulating enterprise.
Its a grind.
To the guy who is solo mining BTC with 8mh, thats the fucking spirit dude. People can shove their ROI up their ass (sorry, but Ive had a few drinks). I salute you and other independent miners who support the Bitcoin network through thick and through thin and help support decentralization. You just reminded me to setup a full qt node on an extra machine I have. You embody the spirit of Bitcoin, and Im quite sure that somewhere, somehow, Satoshi is thinking of you and smiling.
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