what are the predictions of AM for the next week? low/high div, big sell off, rally, what?
I see the value on btct slowly declining until Oct 7, but the value on BF will gradually increase, but not much.
A low downward trend - the lack of liquidity by btct closure is the near-term concern. Bitfunder and Haverlock may very well follow. Mid-Term, it is all about when AM gets the new gen 2 hashing and what the performance is compared to competition. The lack of liquidity/down fall of BTCT is a short term concern; if the security/stability of BTC security exchanges remains in question i think its not going to be good for any btc denominated stock. With only increasing regulatory scruitiny, it is more likely than not that bitfunder and haverlock will go the same way as btct. |
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Suppose 99 investors invest 1 BTC each with 0.99% risk and one brave investor invests 1 BTC at 1% risk.
The 1% (highest risk) investor gets only 1% of all bets, except for the most dangerous max profit bets, of which he gets 100%.
So by being the only investor willing to risk the fully Kelly, he gets to experience very high variance because the lower risk investors take an unfair share of all the sub-max profit bets.
That's the problem with your proposal for me, Chris.
but this higher risk investor also gets the profit when a whale comes in and loses. I just don't see the point of implementing the simple fractional kelly system when you can get the same thing from just investing less. Will I agree, it will make things worse and more complicated, not better. Just stay at 0.5%, we are getting more than enough variance with that judging by today;s swings between +6000 profits and -5000 loss ending at -3100 |
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Auction for next week starts now. Ends at Sunday midnight UTC. Minimum starting bid is 0.1BTC with 0.05BTC increments.
Timer removed. End time: 2013-10-07+00:00:00UTC
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2.7
bit265 wins with a bid of 2.7BTC! Please provide 468x60 banner and URL to speed uploading of your successful bid. You can either PM Dooglus or you can email him your banner at doog.justdice@gmail.comPayment goes to 132kay5h1A8z7iWRp3oov9CUJVwc1S2LeB |
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Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+00:00:00UTC
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2.7
Top bid is 2.7 BTConly 40 minutes left |
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Is it true FF Ownz went from 4 BTC all the way to 2000 BTC??
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This is amazing - you guys have to watch this betting at just-dice.com. Over 250 million USD of coins bet by one player in 12 hrs
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So, I have this awesome idea.
Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.
A stock would be based off revenue from commissions and ads - that is a much better deal than being an investor. No it would be a third party who invested in just-dice. Doog doesn't need capital, so he doesn't need to sell stocks. You're proposing a pass through. Go ahead and set one up, offer an IPO, invest it all in JD, and distribute dividends above some bankroll if it is available a given week. Seems kind of silly to me since you could just directly invest in JD - but you're right, you want to setup a JD derivative and that needs some underlying security. With almost 3.5M wagered and the site at a loss, I think he looking for a way to short J-D |
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It's all rigged. These btc gambling sites are just used for money laundering.
Explain? |
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So, I have this awesome idea.
Someone should turn just-dice into a stock. So people can trade it on bitfunder or something. Now you ask why wouldn't you just do a regular stock? That's because now people can buy options on the stock. That would be cool.
A stock would be based off revenue from commissions and ads - that is a much better deal than being an investor. |
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Since I started watching a few minutes ago it seems he has won more than 3000 btc
He always wins in the end it seems |
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Now over 1.5M in past 12 hrs
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Seeing 1 million btc being bet today and no profit (nor loss) I was wondering how likely this was. I don't have the answer so if anyone knows? The above post however showed that the bankroll can go down to -80% so even if that were to happen that would be not an indication of cheating. I think this was with 1% max bet, but still. Okay, let's see what that would be like. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242962.msg2778468#msg2778468Assumptions: p = 0.495 b = 200 //I'll be assuming 5 000 bets of 200 BTC at 49.5% chance of winning c = 5 000 Total BTC bet = 1 000 000 BTCExpected BTC return for gamblers = 990 000 BTCExpected Profit = 10 000 BTCExpected Standard Deviation of amount returned to gamblers = 7000 BTCExpected profit is (10000±7000) BTCIf actual profit was 0, than that would be 1.43 times the standard deviation away from the expected value. If the profit followed a normal distribution, the probability of this distribution occurring through sheer chance is approximately 15.3% That is just for this one session - you have to look at all his cumulative sessions and the odds really start looking amazing |
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Oh dear fucking God. How can people be this rich...I don't understand this world any more. Nakowa alone as wagered over 1 million Bitcoin today. The site has over 1.3M wagered today. Oh and the expected profit would be 13k, but last I checked it is +500 BTC:) |
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what are the predictions of AM for the next week? low/high div, big sell off, rally, what?
I see the value on btct slowly declining until Oct 7, but the value on BF will gradually increase, but not much.
A low downward trend - the lack of liquidity by btct closure is the near-term concern. Bitfunder and Haverlock may very well follow. Mid-Term, it is all about when AM gets the new gen 2 hashing and what the performance is compared to competition. |
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I did some back of the envelope calculations that suggest parallella can't compete against just going out and buying a new i5/i7 and sticking it in a milk crate. Dream away at finding a niche primecoin mining platform that no one else has up and running yet  It's good to dream! Even if true, the parallella does not require a MB, ram, an enclosure, cooling (other than maybe a single fan blowing across the entire assembly) - and it is infinitely parallizable without any additional cost. You cannot say the same for an i5/i7 which each require at the minimum a MB, ethernet, ram modules and cooling with some sort of enclosure and also it takes up 20X more space per unit. I don't think the parallella is infinitely parallizable. On the board is "a dual-core ARM A9 CPU, a field programmable gate array (FPGA), and Adapteva's unique 16-core Epiphany coprocessor". Sure you can connect them into a cluster, or wait (for how long?) for the 64-core coprocessor, but modern GPUs have hundreds if not thousands of "cores", depending how you define them. So the parallella may be capable of running some version of primecoin, but it will be much slower than running the current client on a up-to-date i7. well rbdbourbon thinks differently. We will see... |
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im losing my mind here. such swings
He had a 14 win streak just now on 49.5% all max bets. |
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You got to watch this - have 3 whales playing betting about 200 BTC each many times per minute. Amount wagered on site has gone from 2M to 3M bitcoins. That is about 130 million USD wagered in 8 hours. Do you think any real life casinos even see that much action??
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Before all this with Nakowa winning big and taking the house down. What was the max profit the house ever had since the site started?
1% kelly and had a max profit over 550 BTC The highest its ever been was 6000 btc. Though I think it was 7500 btc for a short time. They are talking about the max profit a gambler is allowed to win in one bet. You are talking about the maximum the site profit ever reached. The max profit per bet ever as 550BTC at 1% kelly The highest profit the site ever had was very briefly over 7500. It was at 5000 for a while before all the volatility started |
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