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Yeah I'm using Bitstamp as my defacto pricing. This will only change in an extreme circumstance eg exchange failure/downtime or large difference from all other exchanges.
The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.
With that being said my indicator has only had about 25 buy/sell signals since 2011 and right now is a BUY, downgraded from a strong buy. Would not sell unless we hit $412
Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.
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I won't discuss the specifics of my chart analytics, but I will be messing with some bitcoin charting magic for a little while even though I don't truly believe in technical trading. The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.
Initial Fake investment capital: $1000
Current value: $1088.57
Total BTC: 2.331
My current outlook analysis as of 4/26/16: Strong Buy (upgraded from buy recommendation on 4/19/16)
This strong buy recommendation holds true unless we break below $405 at which point I would sell.
Summary: (updated 4/26/16)
My strong buy recommendation stands. Today is another very mild consolidation at $466, this is very bullish. Needless to say that we are way above the short term trading channel which would have an upper limit of $436. We have an increasing rate of rise from the mean that started on 4/18/16, another very bullish sign.
The higher we go in a shorter time frame would require a lower low in order to spark a sell signal. If we dip below $405 I would sell to 100% cash position.
The rise to $467 took a bit longer than I expected, I would have expected a price of $470 today and $472+ tomorrow. It is still a very dangerous time to be in a large cash position. I see continued upward momentum from here and eventually we will have a very rapid unpredictable price raise....
TLDR: Stay 100% bitcoin. I would sell to 100% cash below $405.
Historical Trades
4/16/16: Bought 2.331 BTC at $429 each
Note: This is my own fake trading game, do not take this as any type of trading/financial advice.
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stuff
You're advertising your shop in my thread? Not cool bro. |
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Store is online! Get your Openbazaar stickers!  Description: 4'' x 2.25'' Open Bazaar Sticker made from duralbe vinyl with UV laminate to protect the sticker from scratching, rain and sunlight. Show your support for the OpenBazaar Project! These stickers will work well on computers, laptops, cars, outside of windows and countless other places! |
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I sent a friend 2BTC last night from my core wallet, and used 0.001 fee ( so around 50 cents), stupid transaction took 8 hours ( not to be confirmed, just to appear at all). Funny thing is, he sent me money via internet banking at the same time, and it arrived inside 2 hours!
Something is not working the way it is supposed to!
An unlikely claim. Please post the transaction ID. Honestly curious how that will give you any info? I was getting pretty worried, so i kept checking the transaction ID on blockchain.info, and it kept saying not a transaction. Once the coins appeared unconfirmed only then did blockchain.info recognise my the transaction ID? The only other thing i could think it might be was my core wallet was not completely up to date ( ie I had not downloaded all the blocks because i was on a metered connection, and didnt want to waste bandwidth, so i just opened core, waited till i had a connection to network, then sent). The coins showed as sent, there was a transaction Id, but not record of it anywhere for hours) So do you have a transaction ID or just an excuse? No transaction ID = no further discussion of your unlikely claim (aka lie) on my part. |
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I sent a friend 2BTC last night from my core wallet, and used 0.001 fee ( so around 50 cents), stupid transaction took 8 hours ( not to be confirmed, just to appear at all). Funny thing is, he sent me money via internet banking at the same time, and it arrived inside 2 hours!
Something is not working the way it is supposed to!
An unlikely claim. Please post the transaction ID. |
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We could always just talk in units of bits for now (1 million bits in a bitcion). 1000 bits is currently $0.41. A $5 hamburger would be 12,000 bits, pretty easy for people to use. Eventually we could think in terms of 1 bit = dollar and satoshis = change. eg. if 1 bit = $1 then an item that used to cost $2.50 for milk would now just be 2.50 bits.
People hate to see the small amount of physical gold that $420 buys. However 1,000,000 bits, Woah!
Patience with it all will reward us.
Yes, that's even better idea. So 1 bit = 100 satoshis, right? Yep! |
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We could always just talk in units of bits for now (1 million bits in a bitcion). 1000 bits is currently $0.41. A $5 hamburger would be 12,000 bits, pretty easy for people to use. Eventually we could think in terms of 1 bit = dollar and satoshis = change. eg. if 1 bit = $1 then an item that used to cost $2.50 for milk would now just be 2.50 bits.
People hate to see the small amount of physical gold that $420 buys. However 1,000,000 bits, Woah!
Patience with it all will reward us.
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random rant
Welcome to my ignore list. |
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It could be that we arrived at step #3, let's see how this plays out: If I were a market maker and want to accumulate more btc before the inevitable halving and 'consensus' price rise, I would definitely:
0. Accumulate on the almost forgotten alt coin market
1. Spread FUD so people sell their btc, btc price drops
2. Pump altcoins. People sell their btc in the chase, btc price drops further (<--- we are here)
3. Dump expensive altcoins for cheap bitcoins.
4. Let the bitcoin bubble occur because of 'consensus' and halving
5. People sell cheap altcoins for chasing expensive bitcoins
5. Sell expensive bitcoins for cheap altcoins
6. Spread FUD
7. Rinse, repeat.
Interesting hypothesis, I will be following. |
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Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.
Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money. I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012. I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever. I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos. I like using price fluctuations to try to increase my trading bitcoin stash (which is small, but still fun to play with). But you're welcome to do as you see fit. |
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At what marker or price would you temporarily sell
Why even sell at all? Unless you absolutely NEED the money, there's no point in selling. This is why the price hasn't gone up much since Bitcoin became semi-mainstream in 2014. Tons of cucks and retards are only too happy to sell for a meager profit. They're also dumb enough to panic sell when some faggot like Mike Hearn spreads FUD. Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them. Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes. They're all dishonest FUD spreaders. I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists" You took my quote out of context. Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again. |
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Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts? At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley |
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R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after? This is a speculation sub-forum and I'd like to hear your opinion. I won't pass any judgement if your actual $ amount predictions are wrong. But I will give you cred for them if they are correct  I agree that the price will go up as well and the full price cannot be "factored in" before the actual supply/demand changes have affect. Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables. For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while. But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher. The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go. There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there. Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard. Never try to short a breakout trend. God, shorters are idiots. So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers. For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800. It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame. The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at? The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything. If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so: http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump. At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom  |
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Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.
Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head. You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand. Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth. Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth. Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal. I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.
It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying
You're the type of fucking retard
Many of us here are educated and your ad hominem attacks aren't impressing anyone. There is no incentive for me to "show my wealth", only badness can come from that. I have an above average income and have been accumulating for 4 years. I have enough to keep me comfortable for now. |
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Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.
Can you explain? The total supply has increased since then and if a new ATH in price/coin is reached then both parts of the equation to determine marketcap will have increased thereby creating a new ATH in market cap as well. Marketcap = total bitcoins (has gone up) * Price/coin (if goes above old ATH) = new ATH marketcap. |
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OPs theory is based on the assumption that miners are mostly capable and skilled people with large piles of personal wealth. I personally don't agree with that and think that most of bitcoin mining (except those who manufactured mining machines) is done by inexperienced kids in debt. Kids who think that buying equipment, turning it on and operating it with less then 10 commands made them industrialists.
Most of the hashrate does indeed come from large companies with good capital funding. I would consider them to be rational financial actors. |
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Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.
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Check out my store on OpenBazaar.....selling Open Bazaar stickers!
ob://212eca1b6b5281f5b64ab58b43030a4b19bca01f/store
Feedback welcome.
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Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ? Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you? You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face. What is your deal, man? Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs
' Cool it bro. He's posting price speculation graphs in a speculation sub-forum. It's rather appropriate. |
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