Nice try.

Agree and interestingly I am also seeing the reddit r/bitcoin subscribers count go down a few times in a matter of minutes before resuming much slower uptrend. Than means people cancelling their subscription.
I think the final capitulation purge is near - and it will bring us back to the 200$. Then it might takes us many months to go from there to ATH.

BTW: This paper relates BDD with speculation and says it has a 1% (negative) correlation with price.

Thanks for making me want to Google around and read something interesting

Right now we might see a short squeeze up albeit I expect to see the very last bearish push to bring us around 280-350 in the next weeks. The uptrend will likely take months to gain momentum afterwards.

Agree on prolonged downtrend but were I to be in a short position right now, I'd patiently move up my bids guessing a bottom around 280.

"Fair price" = just a name for Estimated on-chain USD transaction volume / 200000.



So we are witnessing the equivalent of the drop from 7.5 USD to 4.5 USD.
Therefore, as it stands, I believe the real bottom is below 300 and above 200. As it stands now there is no chance it can stay below 250 for more than a day. Unless the USD transaction volume also drops in the next few weeks.

On a more facetious tone... maybe we are here:

I don't discount that possibility. I give it 15%. And still you can't have my coins.  
I have my own indicators. Were I getting ready to catch this or next falling knife, I'd place my bids at a much safer 250 'though. And then forget about it and enjoy my weekend.
OTOH, patience is a game for tough people. Are you one of them?

1st attempt at breaking the bearish pennant to the downside.

Yeah there might be no Manipulator anymore but still, as soon as the volume runs dry, someone shows up and dumps a thousand coins.

Ryan posted links for people to start learning. So go ahead and try putting some effort of your own as opposed to being spoonfed. Otherwise you're as good to anyone else as noise is.

The Fappening Effect.

No you are not the first. Some serious analysts have called that possibility already. You can go now.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me. 
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

Thanks! I think the fact that reward halving is so far away in the future will slow recovery down. But not much.
IMO no way we are tanking to $100, because of this:



400s or even 300s are possible 'tho.

Meh. It is still slowly dropping.
This is what I think. End of January 2012. With the difference that blockchain reward halving is 2 years ahead not one year ahead.



So what? I have been wrong in the past.

And still ain't selling any.

lol 

Honestly it does not look to me like btc is doing a good job at value preservation. Not in the timeframes we are observing (daily candles below).



In comparison, the dollar is doing a better job. Because the prices at the grocer are the same as 3 months ago.
Of course it would be a different story if we compared btc to e.g. the Venezuelan bolivar.
Yet I do not see Venezuelans jumping on board in numbers.

Just saying... I am still a long term bull, and also looking forward to holding a Xapo card (or equivalent) so that I can really use coins everyday.

Estimated daily USD transaction volume (in USD) divided by 200000, which is the scaling factor that empirically fits best.

This is somehow like saying that a coin is worth about 0.0005% the total amount of coins exchanged every day.

Why that magic number? I don't know. Something about a balance between hoarding and spending habits of people: habits that are probably going to change over time, thus invalidating this graph. But to me it still holds at present. Which means we are slowly and painfully going to see 400s, maybe even 300s before reversal.

On a personal note I can't be bothered with trading right now. The swings won't be fast and I am not a patient man. Leaving most of my net worth in fiat for months on a bitcoin exchange, waiting for the bitcoin winter to end time to buy back lower, is more uncomfortable than having my coins sitting on my own cold storage.

Let me throw my chart in too:



I am not sure of course, but my nose says we are in the first quarter of 2012.

What you're gonna do when they'll come for you?