Ryans' log

[oyvinds]

If it's the V of (C):
https://i.imgur.com/CvvdwwG.png

If it's the 5 of III:
https://i.imgur.com/j8zih7Y.png

Thank you for your great analysis. Appreciated. Nice to see something actually useful here at bitcontalk for once.

[CoinBurner]

Yes, it seems that my original wave-E was the correct one. I changed it because of the scale of the waves preceding it. The triangle is indeed complete and we are heading down in the purple count. As for targets and wave numbers, I will have to work up an update but you math skills sound about right for a target if it is the 5th. I did post an alternate count a week or two ago outlining a count where the triangle was 4 of III. If that is the case, then the initial target will be higher since it's for a lower degree wave. I have a few things to do this morning so I will just leave this for now

Wow thanks. So we are probably going to see some real fireworks if it plays out one way or another. Perhaps even a final capitulation bottom, something like July 2013 with huge volume and days of struggling and fighting between bulls and bears. That last wave down took a couple of weeks but right now everything seeems to move at a much slower pace

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is what I am seeing for the next couple of days. A couple of targets in the chart to complete 1 of V.


EWO is still making lower lows so it's unlikely the bottom of 1 is in. Labeled as iii a pull back to $485ish is what I am looking at for the rest of today. Tomorrow or Tuesday should find a minor bottom and allow the market to breath a bit. I will update again as necessary

HODL or don't... It's your choice really, but as always, have fun doing what you're doing!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I annoyed OP in private for quite some time to start a PAMM and nothing so is time to start a public petition for RyNinDaCleM start a damn fucking PAMM

He ain't lying! If I could reach through these wires....
I would love to, but I never know how busy I will be from day to day so I would hate to get investors together only to feel that I let them down because I can't devote the time to trade as much as I'd like to.

If it's the V of (C):
[img]snip

If it's the 5 of III:
[img]snip

Thank you for your great analysis. Appreciated. Nice to see something actually useful here at bitcontalk for once.

Your welcome and I hope you are able to apply the methods herein!

Yes, it seems that my original wave-E was the correct one. I changed it because of the scale of the waves preceding it. The triangle is indeed complete and we are heading down in the purple count. As for targets and wave numbers, I will have to work up an update but you math skills sound about right for a target if it is the 5th. I did post an alternate count a week or two ago outlining a count where the triangle was 4 of III. If that is the case, then the initial target will be higher since it's for a lower degree wave. I have a few things to do this morning so I will just leave this for now

Wow thanks. So we are probably going to see some real fireworks if it plays out one way or another. Perhaps even a final capitulation bottom, something like July 2013 with huge volume and days of struggling and fighting between bulls and bears. That last wave down took a couple of weeks but right now everything seeems to move at a much slower pace

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

[Wexlike]

Ryn, are you actually trading with your possible predictions in the market ?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryn, are you actually trading with your possible predictions in the market ?

Yes I do! I do also use other tools and not just EW in my own system.

The point of this thread was to show the merit of EW and the few indicators I used here to help determine where we are in a count. Or to show that markets are not just a random walk and that they can be reasonably "predicted" with a fair bit of certainty once you determine the probabilities. If I only got 1 or 2 targets correct, I could understand people's skepticism, or belief that it is all luck, but I have called this market for the last 2 months with a success rate better than the flip of a coin (as many here like to say). I just wanted to make others aware that it is possible to have an edge by using TA and EW. In the end, it all comes down to how well you can read the charts, and interpret what they are telling you.  

[EuroTrash]

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me. 
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

[Tzupy]

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me. 
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

No he didn't say that. Although a very bearish scenario is possible in which the last 1 / 27 of wave C is a death spiral, and drops to about 100$,
it is very unlikely IMO. Currently my guesstimate for the despondency stage (real bottom) is about 280$ and the second half of October.

As for the July 2013 bottom, that capitulation was mild because the trading happened in a narrow range: after a harsh wave A, the trapped / fake
fiat on MtGox (still leading) provided support and even made the market look bullish for a while (local bottoms: 50$, 80$, 90$ then drop to 65$).

[vuduchyld]

Great work as always!!!  Thank you, Ryan!

[myself]

I annoyed OP in private for quite some time to start a PAMM and nothing so is time to start a public petition for RyNinDaCleM start a damn fucking PAMM

He ain't lying! If I could reach through these wires....
I would love to, but I never know how busy I will be from day to day so I would hate to get investors together only to feel that I let them down because I can't devote the time to trade as much as I'd like to.

30% cut from all profits made with slave money is a good deal man, make the fucking PAMM

[RyNinDaCleM]

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.  
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

When I say "count on capitulation" it definitely does not mean $32. But it does mean there is a good possibility of going low $300's and more. I realize that a break of $266 seems very bearish to a forum that believes Bitcoin is dead if we go below the previous ATH. This is because it never happened before, but I assure you that it is a typical corrective target (4th wave of a lesser degree) and it isn't as bad as many make it out to be. I DO NOT see double digits as even slightly likely. Possible? Yes, but definitely not likely.  

Edit:
The determining factor in where the bottom of capitulation occurs lies in the support. If support is lost, we drop through to the next support.

[vuduchyld]

I'd love to buy that low!!!  I'll be the guy with long hair backing my truck up to the bitcoin dump site!

[Driv3n]

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.  
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

When I say "count on capitulation" it definitely does not mean $32. But it does mean there is a good possibility of going low $300's and more. I realize that a break of $266 seems very bearish to a forum that believes Bitcoin is dead if we go below the previous ATH. This is because it never happened before, but I assure you that it is a typical corrective target (4th wave of a lesser degree) and it isn't as bad as many make it out to be. I DO NOT see double digits as even slightly likely. Possible? Yes, but definitely not likely.  

Edit:
The determining factor in where the bottom of capitulation occurs lies in the support. If support is lost, we drop through to the next support.

Low 300s!? Damn I better start saving up, even low 400s is something I never thought we'd see again.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.  
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

When I say "count on capitulation" it definitely does not mean $32. But it does mean there is a good possibility of going low $300's and more. I realize that a break of $266 seems very bearish to a forum that believes Bitcoin is dead if we go below the previous ATH. This is because it never happened before, but I assure you that it is a typical corrective target (4th wave of a lesser degree) and it isn't as bad as many make it out to be. I DO NOT see double digits as even slightly likely. Possible? Yes, but definitely not likely.  

Edit:
The determining factor in where the bottom of capitulation occurs lies in the support. If support is lost, we drop through to the next support.

Low 300s!? Damn I better start saving up, even low 400s is something I never thought we'd see again.

I would like to go on the record and say that I do not have a target in the low $300's as of yet. Only that the conversation above is a real possibility due to typical EW results. C waves usually end in the vicinity or beyond the end of the A wave. In this case at or below $339.xx. C waves can fail to make new price extremes so there is also the possibility that we do NOT see lows below $339.xx. I just wanted to clear that up for anyone thinking that I said that is where we are absolutely going.

[oyvinds]

As for the July 2013 bottom, that capitulation was mild because the trading happened in a narrow range: after a harsh wave A, the trapped / fake fiat on MtGox (still leading) provided support and even made the market look bullish for a while (local bottoms: 50$, 80$, 90$ then drop to 65$).

Never forget this when considering where the market may go in the future: A lot of the rally to above $1000 were driven by China, sure, but a whole lot of it was also driven by non-existing fiat used to buy mostly non-existing BTC over at MtGox. There is a reason MtGoxBTC were priced $100 above the rest of the world quite a few times.

A few select people got to withdraw fiat from MtGox for a while and thought they did "arbitrage", in the end they too were severely burned (as they deserved) by their greed.

Why is this relevant? There never was any real demand for BTC at the $1000 price level, it was simply those with MtGoxUSD who would pay any price in order to get something out before the lit-match-game ended. What is most important to remember in this regard is that the emptygox withdraw problems started way back when the price difference between Bitstamp and MtGox was $90 vs $100 and the entire rise from $100 to $1000 should be seen in that light.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire 

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.



This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

[vuduchyld]

I think I'm following, but wave 1 of...what exactly?  What comes after $491?  Is the wave 2 a down wave that drops below the bottom of this one in your opinion?

[windjc]

I think I'm following, but wave 1 of...what exactly?  What comes after $491?  Is the wave 2 a down wave that drops below the bottom of this one in your opinion?

I asked Ry for clarification of this as well. He said that this was 1 of 5 (of 5 of C).

So at the bottom of this 1, we would go up to 2, back down to 3 (I believe he guessed that would take us to maybe 400). Then bounce up to 4 and then a final 5 to potentially test the lows of 340 (bearish scenario).  Then these 5 would complete the 5th wave of C that Ry has been charting from the start of this entire thread.

Once C was complete we would be off to test ATHs on a larger III(3) wave up.  So that is the good news in this scenario.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I think I'm following, but wave 1 of...what exactly?  What comes after $491?  Is the wave 2 a down wave that drops below the bottom of this one in your opinion?

Wave-2 is the  corrective wave to wave-1. Each wave (1, 3 and 5) is made up of 5 smaller sub-waves. This is the fractal nature of EW. To make up this wave-V (roman numeral 5) we need to make 5 sub-waves (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). We have completed 1 and are working on 2. The actual bottom will indeed be below this low.

The legend of my charts is as follows:


In most cases I will use only 3 degrees of labels. Upper case Roman numerals, digits, and lower case Roman numerals. However, in some cases I will use parenthesis or brackets to show a larger degree wave when I need to have 4 or more degrees labeled.

A little psychology of EW:
Wave-1 is usually fairly weak since people believe the previous trend is still in effect. Since we had a few days of sideways movement, people think that the downtrend is over so they are reluctant to follow the new direction, in this case down. We will get this pull-back and these same people will also think "to do moon" until it turns far before liftoff. This is when the realization comes to light. "Oh, shit! We aren't going to da moon,we are going down..." This urgency is what makes 3rd waves the most powerful. The opposite thoughts also inhabit the mind in up trends.

I hope this all helps!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I think I'm following, but wave 1 of...what exactly?  What comes after $491?  Is the wave 2 a down wave that drops below the bottom of this one in your opinion?

I asked Ry for clarification of this as well. He said that this was 1 of 5 (of 5 of C).

So at the bottom of this 1, we would go up to 2, back down to 3 (I believe he guessed that would take us to maybe 400). Then bounce up to 4 and then a final 5 to potentially test the lows of 340 (bearish scenario).  Then these 5 would complete the 5th wave of C that Ry has been charting from the start of this entire thread.

Once C was complete we would be off to test ATHs on a larger III(3) wave up.  So that is the good news in this scenario.

In a nutshell, yes! Still, I do not have a target in the low $300's yet, but an ideal set up  (in EW terms) would have us testing and possibly breaking the $339 low. This is not a bad thing! It means that we had a healthy correction and can rebuild confidence to get back to the higher prices that so many here are looking forward to.