Ryans' log

[montreal]

thank you for the continuing analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

Man you are pretty good at analysis.  Do you trade anything aside from BTC?

Thanks! I try

Bitcoin popped my cherry, but it quickly grew outwards from here. I trade stocks and a little bit of FOREX, and I buy physical PM's when the time is right. Silver @$15 is my heavy buy price (I'm in the US so no CFD allowed here )

thank you for the continuing analysis

No problem! I enjoy it

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Man you are pretty good at analysis.  Do you trade anything aside from BTC?

Thanks! I try

Bitcoin popped my cherry, but it quickly grew outwards from here. I trade stocks and a little bit of FOREX, and I buy physical PM's when the time is right. Silver @$15 is my heavy buy price (I'm in the US so no CFD allowed here )

thank you for the continuing analysis

No problem! I enjoy it

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

[EuroTrash]

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

Ryan posted links for people to start learning. So go ahead and try putting some effort of your own as opposed to being spoonfed. Otherwise you're as good to anyone else as noise is.

[Schickeria]

To be uninfluenced, I intentionally didn't look up here for any count of the current wave and made my own for some practice.



(edited 2 minutes later )

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Hey man, im a real noob lol. So i dont understand anything you posted haha... But what do you thing the long term btc price is? bull or bear?

Ryan posted links for people to start learning. So go ahead and try putting some effort of your own as opposed to being spoonfed. Otherwise you're as good to anyone else as noise is.

....

[Schickeria]

The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

[figmentofmyass]

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

in my count on huobi, we had a truncated wave v. you can count 5 subwaves on the 15m time frame, we failed to make a new high, then pulled back. so that was my take. it is still valid in EW terms, to my understanding. i believe this completed ABC and the down we saw last night/this morning is part of a new wave. down trend to commence, imo.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

in my count on huobi, we had a truncated wave v. you can count 5 subwaves on the 15m time frame, we failed to make a new high, then pulled back. so that was my take. it is still valid in EW terms, to my understanding. i believe this completed ABC and the down we saw last night/this morning is part of a new wave. down trend to commence, imo.

I was just counting the same! The overlap with the i confirmed it was over.

[vuduchyld]

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

in my count on huobi, we had a truncated wave v. you can count 5 subwaves on the 15m time frame, we failed to make a new high, then pulled back. so that was my take. it is still valid in EW terms, to my understanding. i believe this completed ABC and the down we saw last night/this morning is part of a new wave. down trend to commence, imo.

I was just counting the same! The overlap with the i confirmed it was over.

What kind of targets do you guys have on the next wave down, then the move up from that?  Invalidations?

[Schickeria]

So I see you had a similar count (*cheer*), ignoring if my correction-waves had any validility. But now iv entered range of i and this makes this count invalid, not? Or did we have a failed wave v?

in my count on huobi, we had a truncated wave v. you can count 5 subwaves on the 15m time frame, we failed to make a new high, then pulled back. i believe this completed ABC and the down we saw last night/this morning is part of a new wave. down trend to commence, imo.

So you mean like that?:



That's what I suppose now.

[RyNinDaCleM]

As stated a little bit ago, it seems the wave-v of (c) was truncated since it did not make a new high. This is allowed and since it counts as 5 waves, it is a completed abc and was confirmed by the  overlap of wave-i.
This is the close up to show the count of the (c) and the beginnings of 3 of V OR iii of 5 of III. Truncation is a sign of weakness in the move. It appears that the large spike yesterday was mostly a single entity pumping the price a bit. Possibly trying to stir up the market and create a little panic. This is speculation of course, but the truncation leads me to believe this is the case since the buying was so weak for the 5th.


Invalidation is at the $489.40 high for this very short term count. If it invalidates, the next likely count would be a complex correction which I will count and post it up if it happens.

The big picture


We are still in the purple count though I did post a possible count where the III is actually a lower degree 3 and we are working on 5 of the III now. Determination of which count it is will come after we get the final 3 waves down here. That other count is below


I do want to post another possible count that could have a nice rally for the short to mid term. This count has us finishing up the B wave soon and a C that would reach to the middle 500's. This is the count that I was originally updating during the last sharp fall a few weeks ago. It has us in the (2) of III. This is a very bearish count, so not very high on my probabilities list. I just want to make it known .


Sorry for the chart pr0n! J/K, I know you guys like it
Have fun!

Edited the invalidation, sorry!

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sorry guys! I made a few edits. The invalidation and the last chart was the wrong link

[vuduchyld]

Thank you so very much for the analysis and, as usual, the excellent explanation!

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys excited yet?  
With the slide getting back in full effect, I have some targets worked out for the coming days. The first point to look for is the minute iv in the $467-472 area. This is one of those smaller degree waves I was talking about early in the thread that isn't worth trying to trade it since fees eat up much of the profits. Next we have the v of (iii). Look in the $448-455 range for a minor bottom before bouncing back to the mid to upper 460's again after which, there is a very good chance to see the infamous $440 break. Anything after this is just an estimated target, subject to change depending on how the next couple of waves play out. As of now, the more major 3 of V (OR 3 of (5) of III from my alternate count in the 3rd chart from post 233 above) should fall in the $420's - 430's. This is where it'll bounce around for a couple of days as the Bulls defend the invalidation of their count ($420.27) though I find it rather unlikely that we are in a Bullish count right now anyway, but I still have to keep it alive since the support has not been breached yet.


I will update again later.

[Schickeria]

You guys excited yet?  

Witchcraft!  

But one question for further understanding: You are estimating that wave 3 of C (I'm right?) brings us down to ~420 and with wave 5 of C we will test the April low.

But talking about a possible mayor capitulation (< 300) it would need another mayor wave? Is this correct? Or could the current wave C include this mayor capitulation?

[pinky]

You guys excited yet?  

Witchcraft!  

But one question for further understanding: You are estimating that wave 3 of C (I'm right?) brings us down to ~420 and with wave 5 of C we will test the April low.

But talking about a possible mayor capitulation (< 300) it would need another mayor wave? Is this correct? Or could the current wave C include this mayor capitulation?

Elliot waves can get extensions (1.61, 2.61,...), meaning this wave can go below 300.

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys excited yet?  

Witchcraft!  

But one question for further understanding: You are estimating that wave 3 of C (I'm right?) brings us down to ~420 and with wave 5 of C we will test the April low.

But talking about a possible mayor capitulation (< 300) it would need another mayor wave? Is this correct? Or could the current wave C include this mayor capitulation?

Nah, not witchcraft... Magicized!

That 3 is 3 of V of (C) OR 3 of (5) of III of (C). When I get back to my computer, I will get some better targets for the next few days

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys excited yet?  

Witchcraft!  

But one question for further understanding: You are estimating that wave 3 of C (I'm right?) brings us down to ~420 and with wave 5 of C we will test the April low.

But talking about a possible mayor capitulation (< 300) it would need another mayor wave? Is this correct? Or could the current wave C include this mayor capitulation?

Nah, not witchcraft... Magicized!

That 3 is 3 of V of (C) OR 3 of (5) of III of (C). When I get back to my computer, I will get some better targets for the next few days

As pinky said, wave 3 can extend quite a bit. Bitcoin cycles more like a commodity in that the 5th waves are, at times, much larger than the 3rd. This is especially true with the larger time frame/higher degree waves. The 5th wave of the last bubble was enormous compared to the rest of that cycle. Intraday waves are more akin to stock ratios.

Update coming soon

[RyNinDaCleM]

Target hit and more, but still no invalidation. The rise was a clear 3 wave move (corrective). The correction may not be complete, but since it has 3 waves, the highest high is likely in. If the correction continues for some time, it may turn into a triangle before continuing on it's path down.

I feel that the over-hype in the PP news helped it to pass my target (incited a little panic), but sell pressure was just too strong to overcome and invalidate the count. I'm not sure what to make of this Satoshi news and how it may affect the overall trajectory of the decline, so for now, I won't be taking either consideration into account.

Today's chart is just a close-up of the corrective move off the bottom. It is a clear abc, but it also was so fast, that I'm not sure it's done. I do think the highest high is in and we will just get a consolidation here in this range from ~$465-475. After a spike like that, we need more of a time correction than a price correction so this is what leads me to that conclusion.


The target for the coming completion of (iii) will remain the same for now, at $448-456, but this may change if we do get that triangle.