Reserved 2

Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin)

First things first, no?

Before any of us invest into anything, we should strive to figure out our own situation and individual circumstances to the best of our abilities.  Of course, we do not necessarily want the perfect to become the enemy of the good, but at the same time, if we cannot figure out various aspects of our own personal circumstances, then any investment that we make, whether it is into bitcoin or into some other investment, we may well devolve into gambling rather than investing.

These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include:

1)   your cashflow (which also includes ideas of income versus expenses and surely discretionary income is the difference between income and expenses),

2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated,

3)   your other investments (including considering your emergency fund, your float and your reserves - which are usually kinds of liquid ways to hold value in cash, dollars and/or your native currency in away that many of your expenses tend to be denominated),

4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investment possibilities,

5)   your timeline,

6)   your risk tolerance,

7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),
 
8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,
 
9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.)

These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances.

I will say straight up that it can take a pretty long time to figure out all of these factors, and even if you do not know the exact answers for each or any of the categories, that lack of perfect knowledge should not stop you from getting started into investing in bitcoin including that you can continue to learn and to improve upon each of the areas (and all of the areas) to better get to know yourself and your particulars with practice and continued attempts at application and tweaking along the way.

In the near future, I will be fleshing out the above 9 categories a bit more and adding them here.. but just my providing the above 9 categories should already be helpful for anyone investing into bitcoin and the main aspect still remains that bitcoin investors should be spending some time figuring out some of the application of each of these ideas for themselves.


ONLY after we go through some preliminary steps of understanding our own situation in respect to the above categories, then we should be able to set our BTC investment target allocation, and of course, our target could change over time, so if we are an already established investor with several investments and a decently long history of investing that has allowed us to accumulate investment assets.. perhaps over 10 years or more, then we might well decide to get off of zero and have a BTC investment target anywhere between 1% and 10% of our total investment portfolio.  The 1% to 10% range is a starting out area, and of course the more that we learn about bitcoin might cause us to gravitate to some level outside of the range.  I would suspect that the more that anyone studies bitcoin should cause him/her to go higher in terms of allocation and perhaps above the 10% level.  Furthermore, the more bullish we are about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the more bearish (or timid) that we might be about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate more towards the lower end of the range.

If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin.

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The power of compounding.

There surely is a certain power to compounding.  Let's imagine a hypothetical purchase of 20 BTC starting out with $5k invested in 2015... **(so that is about an average of $250 per BTC). It would just take a few of the compounding events to really start to feel the power of the compounding..   Even if you were to start to cash out 20% of your BTC stash after 10 or 11 compounding events, you would not deplete your BTC by cashing out in such a manner.

**this example was inspired by my earlier post on the topic.

1) $250 to $500     = $10k

2) $500 to $1,000     = $20k

3) $1,000 to $2,000     = $40k

4) $2,000 to $4,000     = $80k

5) $4,000 to $8,000     = $160k

6) $8,000 to $16,000     = $320k

7) $16,000 to $32,000     = $640k

8 ) $32,000 to $64,000     = $1.28 million

9) $64,000 to $128,000     = $2.56 million

10) $128,000 to $256,000     = $5.12 million

11) $256,000 to $512,000     = $10.24 million   (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $8.192 million with a remaining stash of 16 BTC)

12) $512,000 to $1.24 million     = $20.48 million (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $15.872 million with a remaining stash of 12.8 BTC)

13) $1.24 million to $2.48 million     = $40.96 million  (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $25.3952 million with a remaining stash of 10.24 BTC)

So think about it, if the BTC price gets to $500k, then this hypothetical holder starts cashing out 20% of his stash each time the BTC price doubles, he still is allowing the stash to grown more than the amount that he is cashing out.    You can work out the raking numbers with a spreadsheet that I developed and discussed in another thread which fillippone has also linked a google spreadsheet to it so that you can plug in your own numbers to see how the compounding and raking works out with various numbers plugged therein.

Here is an excerpt / example of a similar but later posted description of compounding (For clarity, I edited the below post)

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Here are 15 hypothetical examples^** to show how length of time investing in BTC, how much of an investment portfolio the person has and investing strategies can make significant differences in regards to choices that the investor will have available and whether he is going to want to consider either continue to accumulate BTC or maybe to convert into some other strategy (such as maintenance or liquidation).  

The wealthiest starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13.  The medium wealthy only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14.  The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

**The first 6 hypos are clarified slightly from the original post.


For these next Hypos 7-9, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 2.5 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 7 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $3 million into bitcoin for the last 2.5 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $34.9k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 86 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA , and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be maintaining somewhat building his stash.   86 BTC - Around $3 million invested, average cost per BTC $34.9k, valued at around $2.666 million based on 200-WMA and $4.472 million spot price.

Hypo 8.  (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 264k into bitcoin and accumulated about 9.1 BTC, and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....9.1 BTC - Around $264k invested, average cost per BTC $29k valued at around $282k based on 200-WMA and $473k spot price.

Hypo 9 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $13k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.5 BTC.  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he has built up his emergency fund, his reserves and his float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.5 BTC - Around $13k invested, average cost per BTC $26k valued at around $15,500 based on 200-WMA and $26k spot price.

For these next Hypos 10-12, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 1.25 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 10 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $2 million into bitcoin for the last 1.25 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $25.6k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 78 BTC, and so maybe he just continues to DCA for a while and perhaps considers starting to play the waves and feels like he continues to need to build his BTC stash size through DCA and maybe even some lump summing and buying on dips.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he may well just be maintaining and building his stash.   78 BTC - Around $2 million invested, average cost per BTC $25.6k, valued at around $2.418 million based on 200-WMA and $4.056 million spot price.

Hypo 11.  (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,500 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 165k into bitcoin and accumulated about 6.2 BTC, and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....6.2 BTC - Around $165k invested, average cost per BTC $26.6k valued at around $192.2k based on 200-WMA and $322.4k spot price.

Hypo 12 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $6.6k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.25 BTC.  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he is making progress towards building up a solid emergency fund, reserves and float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.25 BTC - Around $6.6k invested, average cost per BTC $26.4k valued at around $7,750 based on 200-WMA and $13k spot price.

For these next Hypos 13-15, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks who are pretty much newbies in their investing into BTC.. so they are trying to figure out their attack plan in order to accumulate BTC in the coming 4 years or so.

Hypo 13 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
We would assume this person already has various investments and a somewhat diversified portfolio and of course an emergency fund, reserves and float.  He could be aiming anywhere between 5% and 25% allocation into bitcoin, but he might want to take anywhere between 6 months and 24 months to reach his allocation and to think about these kinds of matters as he is going.  He might have a lump sum that he has already authorized of around $1.6 million and an anticipated income of around $800k for the next 6 months, so therefore his total budget is $2.4 million for the next 6 months.  He may well decide to dedicate 1/3 to lump sum, 1/3 to buying on dips and 1/3 to DCA.

Hypo 14.  (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person does not have any lump sum that he is able to invest, but his finances are in pretty good order in terms of his emergency fund, reserves and his float, and he considers that he can invest right around $4k per month or $1k per week into BTC, and if he has time he can try to time his DCA investing so that he can take advantage of the dips... which is around 15% of his discretionary income yet he is thinking that it could take him 10-15 years or more to reach his investment targets.. yet he will keep investing into bitcoin at about $1k per week and maybe from time to time if he gets extra cashflow or he is able to decrease his expenses, he might invest more into BTC, but he is going to play it by ear with a decently aggressive DCA approach and reassess from time to time with the passage of time.

Hypo 15 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), Maybe this person has to assess his budget and to build his cash reserves, his emergency fund and his float.  He may also need to pay off some of his debts so that his cashflow is stronger.  He is considering to start out by investing around $10 per week and working his way up to $100 per week in the next 3-6 months while he gets his finances in order, including assessing various aspects of his finances and psychology... He figures that after about 1 year he should have his more egregious debts paid off, and he might be able to build his emergency fund at the same time as he is investing into BTC.. with an expectation of potentially increasing his weekly investment into BTC beyond $100 per week, but that might take a year or two. and he will reassess at various points along the way.  

Last Edited: September 19, 2023 (updated 6 individual investment factors to become 9 factors)

January 10, 2024:  Added Compounding section

January 19, 2024 & February 17, 2024: specified some language in category 3 to differentiate between emergency fund and reserve fund.

February 18, 2024:  Added more compounding examples and added Hypos 1 - 12.

In recent times, I had been feeling some redundancy and repetition regarding my attempts to share some of my ideas about BTC and BTC portfolio management and various factors that people need to attempt to account for in their considerations about bitcoin.  

I created this as a self-moderated thread in order for me to exercise some discretion in terms of removing possible shitcoin, trolling or shilling posts above and beyond what forum moderators might consider, and likely I am not going to be too inclined to delete posts even if they are critical of my ideas.. but we will see where the post substance goes or if there is any participation beyond just me.

I thought that the creation of this thread could be helpful for me to have some of the ideas in one place and potentially allow me to lessen some of my needs to repeat ideas… whether in the form of various PMs or in various threads that I am presented with seemingly repetitive ideas..

Maybe in the end, the creation and intended maintenance of this thread will not lessen repetition of my posts regarding ideas outlined herein..? time will tell.  

Of course, for at least an initial period, I will need to flesh out some of the first few posts in a kind of work-in-progress way.    

I am considering categories of:

1)   This post:  Introduction (Opening Post 1):  
2)   Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin)
3)   Opening Post 3: Accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC  
                    3) a) -  Outside related thread Ideas of sustainable withdrawal
4)   Opening Post 4:  Attempts at BTC price predictions
5)   Opening Post 5:  Other considerations / resources, bitcoin podcasts, threads of other forum members or my other threads

I am also hoping that some of my ideas and outlining of intended investment bitcoin ideas will be helpful to other persons besides just me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.  

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

I am also open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks, but at my discretion I may well end up deleting posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.  

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes (especially since we are on the interwebs and cannot always know beforehand whether discussions will get too much derailed)?

Last Edited: November 24, 2023

How high can those damned things fly?

Your negative nancy is coming out d_eddie....

You see OOM.  Your memory is not that bad.  I had not recalled the meaning of the "clairvoyant granny" referent until you mentioned 600watt, and now my memory has been refreshed in that direction too.

It's like each of us remember different things, and then there can be some power within some of the crowd sourcing matters, even though I am still waiting for the power of the crowd to give me some kind of a solution to my question regarding why I cannot set BTC sell orders above $100k on BinanceUS... and really, my problem with that particular issue is not really seeming as urgent in recent times anyhow.


I do believe that you make a decently good point here Torque in terms of the goals of many larger investors is to strive to be ahead of the curve, and surely even in bitcoin some of them can play the game right to be able to get their little side deals and special treatment.

It likely has also been the case that a lot of the BIG entities have been way the hell too greedy and even underestimated bitcoin in several ways and they have become frustrated with several aspects in which they are not really able to easily shake a lot of the longer term HODLers from their coins - and especially NOT to the degree that they wished that they were able to accomplish such shakening.. so there are several times in which some of the BIGGER players had been forced to buy whatever BTC they do have at higher prices than they would have wanted to and surely some of them do get locked out of BTC's price appreciation because they are too smart for their own good (too smart by a half as Greg Foss likes to say)...

Even in recent times we have examples of such dynamics in which the BIG players got fucked... Hey Torque think about it.. this might be one of the areas that you and I might be able to come closer in resolving because it seems to me that you frequently want to presume that some of these BIGGER players are able to get their way, and I am sure that you agree that sometimes they get fucked in terms of the level of their greed, and you and I can agree to both be somewhat gleeful about their getting fucked by bitcoin way more frequently than they are either used to or that they would prefer.  

So anyhow back on track and back to my story, my assertion remains that a lot of these privileged fucktwat manipulators were thinking that they were going to get BTC prices below $28,600 in May/June/July and perhaps even below $20k and even into the $15k arena.. similar to their thinking that they were going to be able to get sub $2k coins and maybe as low as lower $1ks in late 2018 and into 2019.. but both times they got fucked royally up the ass by UPpity BTC price performance.. and so this time around they are still hoping to get into BTC with sub $28,600 coins, and really I have my doubts about whether their quench will be satisfied.. maybe some of them are like Raja_MBZ and waiting for the spot price to meet the 200 week moving average, which is currently in the $18,500 arena and will soon be moving above $20k.. and sure anything is possible.. but I would still bet that the odds are not so highly in their favor as they would like and there are pretty decent odds that they are going to get fucked again, especially if they continue with those kinds of greedy expectations.. yeah they have futures and they have some new additional financial shorting tools that allow them to push the BTC price down without putting any BTC on the table, but are they really going to be successful or willing to loose that much money (even if they might have seemingly unlimited amounts of money) when the BTC price moves against their manipulation attempts?

Of course, retail is doing way better with BTC than they have been able to do with various traditional investments, and that contributes to causing even more resentment from some of the BIG players who really want to screw retail.. and they have been continuing to be as successful as they would like to be.. and don't get me wrong, I am not conceding that the haves do not have the ability to profit way more than the have nots, but there are plenty of them that remain too greedy by a half (Foss) and normies are also still able to get into bitcoin and to figure out ways to profit way more than they have historically been able to profit by any kind of prior investments that were difficult for them to get into.. and yeah of course we have the greatest wealth transfer going on too.. and so surely in the short term, some normies can get reckt by that too if they do not learn how to approach their BTC investment in terms of prioritizing buying, accumulating and HODLing for several years and riding out some of the shorter term attempts at DOWNity manipulation that may or may not end up being successful for those who are used to getting their ways in regards to finances/investments and getting/staying richie.

To me it seems a bit difficult to make real solid conclusions in regards to that kind of data and to really assert that retail seems to be buying BTC. 

For sure, many of us would like to see some increases in the buying and getting started in BTC activities of retail, especially since we have seen quite a few examples in the past year and a half of guys like Michael Saylor educating institutional investors about the value of hoarding.. and even really seeming to lead by example, too.

Based on Saylor's conduct retail would not be locked out of buying BTC, but his conduct does seem to cause greater levels of urgency in terms of getting in early and potentially accelerating BTC's rise UPpity.

Yeah, we can also appreciate that our UPpity in the past year has not really been as spectacular as some of us had expected so far, so there continue to be questions in regard to whether this run is over, and surely some of the BTC price action of recent times, including a pretty decently sized dip of 39% that still does not seem inclined to stop can become a wee bit disheartening for some people. .though I would still argue that newbies to bitcoin should be happy about this little pause in UPpity, even if we were to end up getting more corrections that go further than our already 39%.. and geez getting another 56% dip from the $69k top (which would be right around $30k) (like we had in May/June/July could cause quite a bit of shakening of weak hands and worry about whether this run is actually over...

Regarding the willywoo link above there were a couple more tweets from woo to attempt to further explain the data of the graph and surely just a few interesting replies to the tweets too.. such as the ongoing buying does seem to allow greater odds for our run to be continuing yet in any event, even if the data ends up being correct in terms of retail continuing to buy, we can never have a whole hell of a lot of confidence regarding some momentum continuing until maybe we start to see the price go back up into the $50ks and maybe we have to even get into the upper $50ks to really start to get some confidence coming back.

Well, it is your choice if you want to believe that bitcoin is so correlated to various macro-economic matters such as Covid or various recent or ongoing economic responses to covid.

There are many of us who have been involved in bitcoin a decently long time who either reject such correlations to various contemporary macro happenings or try not to get too wrapped up into various correlations that likely do not exist even close to as much as mainstream media and other disinformational sources of information seem to want to lead us to believe.  

Yes, you can zoom out and you can see  that there may well be times of short-term bitcoin price correlations with various macro-dynamics in the world, but if you cannot see, appreciate that there is more going on in bitcoin than some of those seemingly short-term price correlations, then it seems that you might be a wee bit out of touch with what is bitcoin.  

And, if you recognize the validity and credibility of some of the other bitcoin price appreciation models you might learn to not put so much weight into either claims of correlation to such macro factors, even if you might be able to see them on the charts for various short periods of time.  There is a need to zoom out in order to NOT get distracted by some of these shorter-term claims of correlation.

You have been in bitcoin long enough that you should have figured out some of these matters by now, and even the fact that you are into bitcoin mining (and surely knowledgeable about the mining topic in a variety of ways) would cause some of us to presume that you would not have been so easily mislead into those kinds of correlation presumptions.

Of course, your history also shows that you had failed/refused to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past, and several times you have both acknowledged your failure/refusal to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past and you have even proclaimed that you have fixed some of your erroneous presumptions of the past and have become more aggressive in respects to your current bitcoin accumulation and investing, but surely on a regular basis you tend to show that you remain somewhat luke warm in regards to your own confidence levels in terms of bitcoin's upside potentials and even what seems to be its asymmetrical bet that is not exactly correlated to a variety of mainstream current happenings.



Of course you can think that and you can continue to fail/refuse to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.  One way of failing/refusing to prepare for UP is to not buy/accumulate enough, and another way is to sell too much too early.  Historically, we have seen those kinds of failure/refusal to adequately prepare for UP conduct on a repeated basis.



Hopefully you are not failing/refusing to adequately and sufficiently prepare again.. Yes, I have seen that you have been buying on a daily basis for the past month or so and plan to continue to do it.. so there is no way to really know your situation as well as you know it...

And, surely, we should realize that even if BTC's price action does not go up as much as expected in the next quarter or even few quarters, I doubt that it would be prudent to expect that the cycles are broken, but hey, you can believe whatever you like.


I am not going to prematurely negate the best models that we have, and surely we should be taking any model with a decently large grain of salt and both financially and psychologically, we have our own personal responsibilities to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for either BTC price direction..


It seems that I should not be accusing you as being underallocated in bitcoin then....

This is the part that can be so difficult when trying to figure out both the level of allocation and also the extent to which some reallocation needs to take place.

I would not count house as cash.. and I would not count other investments, such as equities to be cash either, even though they are very connected to some of the ideas about no place to store value and that the dollar is losing value... so yeah, people are putting their dollars into real estate and into equities... Of course for any newbie, I would be recommending to get off of zero and get to 1-10% into bitcoin, and so if any of us is in bitcoin for a while, even if we might have started out on the higher end of the 1-10% initial investment range, I had not ever really recommended reallocating out of bitcoin in any meaningful way as long as the increase in the value from the bitcoin was due to price appreciation.. however, if bitcoin were to be your only investment asset besides dollars, equities, property or some other asset classes, then there may well be some justifications to diversify somewhat out of bitcoin so that all of your eggs are not in one basket... but yeah, anyone that is already 80% in bitcoin or maybe even presumably 40% in bitcoin if they are balancing out with their spouse's investments then surely it is harder to figure out ways that they might not be allocated properly or not allocated sufficiently in BTC...

Maybe there is some kind of a need to mention my own allocations, again?  

For me, an allocation of around 13.5% in BTC in late 2014 had gone into the mid-80%'s in BTC in late 2017, and maybe into about around 45% in BTC during the lower parts of the 2018 crash and even the March 2020 liquidation event may have well caused my allocation in BTC to dip below 50%, so if I do a kind of quickie attempt at an assessment currently, then I might be able to say that in April 2021, my allocation in BTC likely was around 91%, and the drop in May through July brought my allocation down to about 87%, and recently it was back up to around 91% and even currently the percentage might be around 89% in BTC... so yeah, it is hard to say what others should do because I had frequently proclaimed that since 2013 my BTC investment had gone up several times, like maybe more than 40x to 70x depending on the measuring point, but all of my traditional investment may have gone up around 60% during that same time.  So the BTC has outperformed all of the other investments, and even if I were to assert that I could have comfortably lived off all of the other non-BTC investments, the fact that the BTC amounts to around 9x more than all of those other investments in the event that we are considering an allocation in the ballpark of 90/10 currently to constitute 9/1.

Yeah.. but... we have been on a pretty BIG back and forth roll recently, no? 

And would you not conclude that we are kind of antagonistic to one another in a few substantive kinds of ways in respect to the value of trading and the extent to which it is important to talk about trading strategies, no?

You cannot believe that we just invent our level of antagonism, merely for attention or whatever other benefits that we might get out engaging in the back and forths, no?

Another thing is that of course if one of us is typing, the other cannot respond until the other is done, no?


For sure there is a lot of strangeness in your above chosen words, and need I get into any details about your own strangeness - beyond just pointing it out?


You already likely realize that you have a tendency to throw out a bunch of somewhat arbitrary frameworks, and why do we need to wait and see to identify how detached from reality they seem to be.  Why would it matter if some kind of bullshit that you throw out there ends up playing out exactly like you described that it would?  From what I can see about your approach, the mere playing out of your proposed scenario would not cause the current rationale for the framework or the factual foundations to become more solid, even though of course, you could attempt to credit ur lil selfie as some kind of a sorcerer that has graduated beyond wannabe status.



I doubt that I am limited in what I "can" predict.  I just choose not to make bold ass predictions that seem to be too damned specific and seem to aspire towards sorcery status.  On the other hand, I do have some tendencies to attempt to outline probability frameworks from time to time and also to challenge some folks, such as uie pooie.. when you seem to be throwing out various kinds of nonsense that even you likely do not believe to be true, but you just want to put some kind of seemingly leadership framework out there... it would be funny if it weren't sometimes a bit too misleading and sometimes failing and refusing to account for more convincing frameworks or even sometimes you end up misquoting facts in order to try to spin your framework as being more likely than it deserves.



It's great that you have deemed yourself as some kind of expert in terms of recognizing various weaknesses that I have.


My approach is too boring for you?  That's strange.  You seem to agree with aspects of what I do which is mostly HODL.. but surely you seem to be opposed to some aspects of what I do because you seem to NOT understand or accept certain angles based on your own lack of sufficient aggressiveness in your investing strategies in the past - and so in that regard, you seem to be having some difficulties relating to certain angles.. even though on several occasions I have attempted to 'splain such dynamics to you... and then instead of attempting to actually grapple with some of the angles you assert that I am misstating personal facts or some other nonsense baloney that likely helps you to NOT grapple with how seemingly boring can actually become exciting especially when it allows you to not have to worry about managing richie status or having a sufficient richie status cushion in order to NOT have to be regretful in regards to failing/refusing to be sufficiently aggressive in the past.

Can't say that I am not disappointed a wee bit..

But for sure you know you better than we do.. and each of us should do what we believe to be the best for our particular circumstances and so that we can sleep well at night too...


There is something wrong with your little rendition, dude...

For sure you can proclaim that PlanB was wrong about November and even likely December in his bottom models.. but those models were a bit stupid in the first place.

As far as the stock to flow and the following of 4 year cycles, I doubt that you can proclaim those to be wrong until maybe 3rd quarter of 2022.. or some outrageous deviation from the mean price predicted therein that would last for a long time.

One thing about models is that they are not off.

They can be one or two standard deviations off of the mean and still end up being correct.. so surely I doubt that we are really very far off of the mean.. perhaps 1 sgtandard deviation at most... maybe we are getting a bit further off, but seems way too premature to assess that model as even being close to dead.


Furthermore, it seems to me that the model could still be correct even if the curve or the mean has to be shifted down..


So regarding PlanB's assertion that the average price for BTC should be $100k for the whole period after the halvening (which was in May 2020).. but the average price ends up being somewhere between $60k and $80k, so I doubt that the model needs to be thrown out, but instead the average needs to be shifted down to reflect the actual facts and perhaps some other adjustments need to be made to the model..

In other words, I am just saying that even if the model is not perfect, it is likely either not completely broken or even salvageable in some kind of meaningful and significant way.  

And, personally, I hardly give any shits about whether the model is correct or not, but I do believe it remains some kind of best model still available rather than some of the various random "out of my ass" spinnenings that we see popping out of various places that seem to not even be in touch with hardly any kind of meaningful reality, such as facts and logic.


I hope that you are not referring to yours truly.. because that does kind of resemble my noman's land numbers... which surely were probably moving the 50/50 to 60/40 which is a high level of certainty.. but still nothing close to any kind of certainty.

(or did i give higher numbers .. I can hardly imagine giving higher numbers than 60/40 unless it was just a very narrow question like about the bottom being in.. but not to $80k, no?.... when I talk about tops I might sometimes suggest that resistance is lessened..but beyond 60/40.. that would be pretty damned rare for me. I can dig out some of my earlier in the year numbers which likely started around July/August when we got out of the $30ks and we passed above $46k) which I would assert NOT to have been in any kind of really high levels.. sometimes I recall making higher proclamations that the bottom was in.. but not necessarily about the top.. except to say that noman's land existed, ands the underlying rationale of noman's land is that there is a lot of UPpity momentum. and less likely to have BIG corrections during that time, but still does not mean that corrections have disappeared completely from the radar.. so moving from 50/50 to something like 60/40 would be a pretty BIG-ASS move.. even though it is way far from guaranteed.. 40% is not a nothing)...

.hahahahahahaha .... makes me want to say something like this...... wait for it::::


"sorry for all the losses that I might have caused... .


















NOT

..........


I did not cause nuttin."

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.


Gosh..

Not selling should have been a given.. .. kind of like an unspoken


Who would-a-thunk?


You had to go there? 

I see a pussy pic and you see..


oh well...


I hope not... .. I also hope that this is the last chance, ever, for anyone to be buying BTC below $50k.. but seems like a pretty BIG ask at this point in time.


You speak a lot of nonsense.

Are you trying to compete with naim027 to see who can say the dumbest (or at least the most incomprehensible) things?

At least, while you are rolling your own seemingly out of your ass cycles (price prediction models) and your own formulas for determining random tops/bottoms, you concede that the top might not be in.. That's one positive.

If I might indulge a wee bit:  "We" care because several times you said:  "look at me.  Look at me.  Look at me." while you were posting your largely irrelevant internally contradictory phony baloney.


 


Sometimes I wonder if there might some need to purge some of the froth in the various shitcoin space.. even though largely I don't give too many shits, even while acknowledging ongoing froth in those various shitcoin parts..


I know it is tempting.. but you should try to stop yourself from those kinds of wishenings.

For me, it is pretty rare to get to the last buy order, so the closer that we get to my last 5-10 buy orders I start to get a little bit nervous... Of course, if we had gone up for 4x or 6.5x, then maybe it is not such a BIG deal to have several corrections along the way and to attempt to balance out some of the buy orders that had been stacking up (seemingly too much)... maybe I just have an ongoing preference for UP.. even though currently I have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't even really want anymore buy orders in the $40ks to get filled.. Of course, I am willing to tolerate such ongoing buying of BTC.. but still would prefer NOT to buy any more BTC in the $40ks.. make it stop, make it stop.. ..

Is it just me?

By now, you likely realize that I have many times asserted that I hardly take any extra or different measures in regards to managing my BTC portfolio in regards to my various assignments of probabilities to BTC price directions.. so largely I feel that my approach in regards to my BTC portfolio management is a kind of 50/50 in regards to the BTC price could go up or it could go down, and I hardly give any shits in terms that my orders are largely going to get filled either way.. and if the price stays flat, no orders are getting filled.

Sure, sometimes on the margins I might sell slightly fewer BTC in the midst of what I consider to be noman's land or to spread out my orders further within such zone.. yet I consider even those small measures that I take to be hardly even comprehensible or describable on a conscious level..

and maybe I can give an example to attempt to illustrate my point... If you remember on about October 20, BinanceUS had a quickie flashcrash from about $67k down to $8,200, and by the time that I discovered that quickie mistake flashcrash, the BTC price had stabilized back at about $62,500. I had buy orders on that exchange (but ONLY down to $42k), so all my buy orders were filled in that ONE exchange flash crash, and since after that point, I did not have any more fiat on that exchange, I decided that I would ONLY reset my BTC buy orders on that particular exchange after selling what I had originally bought through that accidental buying - and in essence I ended up my reseting of my sell orders in $1k increments between $64k and $79k.. which is largely my idea of where noman's land had been located at the time that I set those particular sell orders.....so I was influenced by my assessment of where noman's land was located, but not in very large ways.. just in marginal ways that would have caused me the way in which I would allow that situation to ride in a way that I could attempt to maintain some semblance of emotional (and financial) neutrality in terms of not caring which way the BTC price ended up going...  and as we know, the subsequent BTC price action did not end up passing all the way through noman's land without any significant resistance as expected and instead we ONLY got a rise up to $69k and we ended up getting a correction down to $42k (so far) which was the same place that so many of my accidental buy orders had already filled, so largely ONLY my extra sell orders between $64k and $69k (and not the ones between $70k and $79k) had been filled in order to give me some of the money back to work with in order to reset my buy orders on that exchange down to $42k .. and so largely I had been left with working with less money on that exchange (maybe about half).. and also since the BTC price already had gone down to $42k on its own (subsequent to the mistake), the amount of my gain from the accidental October 21 crashening on that one exchange ended up playing out to have been less profitable (maybe partially of my own compromising making) since all my buy orders down to $42k would have still ended up getting filled, but just at a later date... so currently my extra sell orders on that exchange still exist up to $79k - even though my reassessment of noman's land has caused the noman's top to have become a top of $92k rather than $80k.. so in some sense I could reconsider my placement of those BTC sell orders in terms of my reassessment of where noman's land is at, but so far, I have not really felt that my reassessment of a higher noman's level is materially significant enough for me to make any additional changes in where my BTC sell orders are already set on that exchange.



There is quite a bit of discretion involved in terms of where the comfort zones are going to lie in terms of how much value to be allocating in each of the assets and whether you feel more comfortable sleeping in dollars or BTC.  From my perspective, higher levels of comfort are likely to come from having deeper levels of assessment of your particulars and then attempting to set buy/sell orders in accordance with those assessments, so sometimes guys devolve into gambling behaviors because they have failed/refused to make adequate assessments of their various particulars so then they may well end up overplaying in various regards and then realizing after the price moves against them that they should have taken a different (perhaps more balanced?) direction with their allocations.


Who put you as an expert in regards to my determinations when to comment or not?


If you are prepared for either direction, then why should you give any shits regarding the extent to which things became clearer, unless you are either having regrets about how you had previously balanced your orders or if you might feel that you need to learn from the situation...

For sure, a bigger price move like that might end up causing needs for BIGGER adjustments.. and for sure, it may well challenge a lot of folks in terms of how well that they had prepared themselves financially and psychologically for such extremes.


For me, it did not look like the end of the bullmarket, and sure if it had persisted and not sprung back after a month or two, then we may have well ended up in a bear market... I have already acknowledged my way of assessing as a kind of lagging indicator, and so I have already struck balances with my finances and psychology in terms of accepting that I might end up buying all the way down and then find out that there is more down.. that is one of the risks of having lagging indicator aspects to my perspective of BTC market matters.


Ok... then why we arguing?

Let's say for example, it's 2018 again, and I keep saying that we are in a bull market through the whole year, and sure my statements become weaker and weaker through the year when it appears that we are not going to be bouncing back, so by the time November 2018 comes, and the BTC price halvens from $6k-ish to $3,500-ish, then at that point, I finally concede that the bull market appears to be over and it appears that the facts now show that we had been in a bear market all along, but I had just not realized that we were in a bear market that whole time until the nail in the coffin comes around mid-November 2018.

Of course, some others had been proclaiming a bear market all along and maybe as early as February 2018 when the BTC price had done a quickie crash down to $6k.. and personally, I still think that the whole matter is a big so what even though it does have decently high potential to have had materially changed the financial and/or psychological situations of individuals in terms of whether they had adequately prepared themselves for either price direction in terms of their own individual particulars... including how much bitcoin they may have already stacked prior to entering that timeframe.

Another example is if you are going to tell me that you were right and I was wrong because I had a delayed acceptance of when the bear market had begun, I am going to tell you to fuck off in part based on no one really knowing with any certainty that the bull market was actually over, until at some later point we could more clearly make that determination..and people are going to determine that at different times and make their preparations based on their determination (are we in a bear or a bull market) at different times (thresholds).,,, and so sometimes the financial and psychological balancing is going to come out differently based on such determinations and personally, I am not going to attempt to second-guess myself and say this was more clear at x point or at x plus 1 month or whatever, unless there might be something there that I feel that would have been more helpful for me to manage my finances/psychology better in the event that I personally conclude that improvements might have been in order... and the kinds of improvements that would have been good for either price direction rather than just seeing that the BTC price went down for the whole of 2018 and then acting as if that were actually knowable when I surely will continue to argue that it was not knowable until either after the fact or based on some particular superior knowledge that non-normies might have had...,.



Well, we might appreciate that it is not ONLY about being open minded, but appreciating that guys may well have differing balances in regards to both their attempt to play upside while balancing risk.  There are a certain number of guys who are not willing to take certain risks in order to gamble getting additional profits when those additional profits may or may not play out.. and they are willing to live with a lesser upside and to perhaps be better able to sleep at night.

One kind of strange thing when I look at myself in retrospect, I do realize that in late 2014, I had already determined that I had personally established enough of a stake in BTC to be financially and psychologically comfortable - yet for at least 2 years, I persisted with a kind of ongoing accumulation of BTC and even kinds of concerns that I did not have enough BTC (even though I had already assessed in late 2014 that I did have enough).. so there is some strangeness in a lot of that..especially looking back retrospectively in terms of attempting to assess myself.. and I am not an objective standard, even though there are ways to attempt to assess my situation as an everyman situation, but the better way of attempting to assess my situation is from my own internal perspective.. including whether i have regrets and surely by the time we get into early 2017 I start to go even further down the acceptance layers in terms of feeling that I have enough BTC and surely some of the profits levels and cushions start to be helpful in that when BTC prices are largely moving from $1k to $2k and then $3k later in the year... so then there becomes less and less psychological feelings that I need to get more BTC, when I had already established in late 2014 that I did not need more and then I had the whole time of 2015 and 2016 to really confirm that I did not need anymore and that was a process of largely continuing to accumulate BTC during that time and not really wanting to give any up.. but I think by the time 2017 came, I became more accepting that it was not really going to hurt my situation to give up some BTC here and there... and it seems to me that on a personal level I have been largely been able to maintain that stance since 2017 even though for sure we know that the BTC price has gone up and down since then, it went up 10x to 20x in late 2017 and then it came back down to only being 2x to 4x up and then surely 3-4 years later we are in a seemingly much more solid territory of potential superfluidity for those of us (am I referring to royal?) who might have already assessed their situations to be largely good and acceptable at earlier points in time.

Maybe this is where the assessment that making it through a whole BTC cycle is helpful and making it through a couple of cycles should be superfluously helpful, even though for sure we can understand that it could take some guys/gals a few cycles before they really sort matters out in terms of both their finances and their psychology in regards to how they end up balancing their BTC holdings within that.



That sounds like flip-flopping to me.. and sure of course I am not saying that you should not be trying to attempt to learn from your mistakes or even to learn what you believe might be all of the relevant and meaningful variables that might be at play for this particular asset class.


Yes.. a difference between you and me... I hardly give too many shits about those shorter moving averages.. and so recently I have largely been focusing on the 208-week moving average and the 104 week moving averages.. and sure we can get some additional information from some of the shorter timeline ones, but I hardly even want to use those as factors that might influence much if anything that I am going to do or how I am going to attempt to manage my BTC portfolio.


Still does not matter to me.  I doubt that any of those squigglies would be able to anticipate the confluence of events that contributed to a kind of extreme nature of the March 2020 liquidity event... I personally just see it as a need to be prepared for unexpected extremes that are not likely to happen rather than considering it as an event that was foreseeable, even if retrospectively you are able to identify some possible ways that it was foretold or that it had higher chances to occur than you had previously assigned...

Let's say for example, you had assigned less than 4% chance to such occurrence, but you should have assigned 10% to such an occurrence, doesn't it still become a BIG ASS so what, even if the actual phenomena ended uo playing out as 100%?..   Your mistake was between 4% and 10% and the mere fact that it became 100% should not have really changed much of anything in any meaningful way since you should not have had too much of a different approach anyhow between something that was 10% rather than 4% odds.. In other words, I would argue that it is mostly a waste of time to be kicking yourself over something like that and also it does not make a real big difference in your preparations to have a 10% rather than 4% assessment (except on the margins)... and the fact that it actually happened.. should not change matters very much either, except to perhaps show that in the future a lot of those less than 4% events have now become 10% events.. because the actual happening of such march 2020 event has shown some changes in the factors/variables that we need to consider in the future.



That's bullshit.  The March 2020 event was an outlier.. and whether it was less than 1%, less than 4%, around 10%, or maybe some other higher number still does not cause it to be some high probability event merely because it ended up happening.

But whatever, you believe whatever you want in regards to how you are going to assess these kinds of potential set-ups in the future.


There was more going on in the world than what was shown in those charts.. including macro connections that ended up putting a lot of cascading desires for getting into dollars.. and also the 100x leveraging on BitMex at that particular time had brought a bit further (more extreme) quick and far moves than might have been realizable in advance.. and I am not even going to attempt to characterize some other macro factors because I hardly even consider any of that to be very relevant to any kind of longer term investor in bitcoin including that I don't fuck around with selling and buying in ways that you do.,. so no fucking way am I playing around with my holdings in that way, so you are talking about matters that are of little to no priority to me.

My practice had just sold all the way to the $11k-ish top and then started buying back at about $10k-ish and then bought all the way down to $3,850-ish and then I personally started to wonder if I had enough money to keep buying if the bottom was not in yet.. so sure I can recall being a bit nervous about whether the bottom was in at $3,850.. yet, I cannot recall taking any kinds of large actions to prepare myself for more down.. maybe I adjusted my sales amounts a wee bit higher between $5k and $7k.. just to make sure that I had some extra cash, but really I cannot recall doing anything material and substantial like I ended up having to do in November/December 2018 because I had some cashflow issues at that time, and I believe that I ended up having to sell a few percentages more than anticipated between $4k and $6k just to make sure that I did not run out of cash if the BTC prices ended up going lower than $3k.. adn furthermore I had a lot of expenses coming in at that time based on some decisions that I had made in late 2017/early 2018.



Ok... fair enough that sometimes the signals might be ambiguous in terms of how to read them and how to possibly react or maybe how much to react.


A lot of that seems irrelevant to me because I am not going to play around with any of that anyhow..



Does not seem obvious to me, even in hindsight.


Yes.. I call it nonsense because I am neither going to attempt to play those or really to materially or meaningfully change any of my strategies based on those kinds of potential moves.. so even if it is not exactly nonsense, it is almost completely unactionable as far as I am concerned.. and you can play those kinds of indicators all that you want and proclaim them to be wonderful until you are blue in the face, but your actions and/or assessments regarding those kinds of indicators are not going to change the way that I manage my BTC or the ways that I suggest others reasonably and prudently attempt to manage their own BTC.


Still seems like a pretty big SO WHAT to me.


Yes.. account for those matters however you like. Does not seem to make much if any difference to either what I did or what I anticipate doing in the future or what I anticipate suggesting for others (if they were to ask?).


Seems that if you do not fuck around with leverage then you do not get rekt.. so maybe there is a lesson in there that goes more towards not fucking around with trying to figure out how to use leverage when bitcoin has had such a very strong profitable potential for so many normies, even normies who do not hardly know what the fuck that they are doing, so long as they do not get involved in attempting to use leverage.  So, from my perspective, there is no "equal opportunity" reckening.. because the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin has brought so many opportunities to so many normies including normies who do not know what the fuck they are doing and normies who hardly have any capital, and one of the most important actions that they can take is to just get the fuck started, and surely some of the normies get lured into modes that they might be able to magnify or quicken their results by playing around with attempting to time this that or another thing, and I have continued to say fuck that including some of your assessments of what to do or what might have been done and blah blah blah.. because sure some of these ideas can be helpful to some folks who are trying to balance some kind of reasonable and prudent trading.. yet from my perspective the vast and overwhelming majority of normies have had opportunities right in front of them to screw up in a lot of ways and still get richie.. so long as they do not use leverage in any kind of substantial and meaningful way.


Good if you feel that you have found a balance with seemingly complicated assessments..


Even if you seem to be describing similar kinds of facts that are relevant to me, from time to time, we still end up coming to different conclusions about where we are at. which has implications regarding where we might be going.


Sure, you can call it a double bottom if you like or maybe you want to call it elliot waves?  We still seem to be coming to differing assessments regarding to categorize where we had been at various points... which leads us to different conclusions regarding where we might be going.. and seems to me that sometimes the various attempts to treat bitcoin as some kind of normal market with normal definitions will get you and some others into trouble.. and sure your level of getting into trouble is going to vary and your personal ways of accounting for various perceived risks is going to vary too..  


Not everyone is going to sleep better to be in dollars, so don't be proclaiming that there is some objectively preferable way to be when it is not true, even if one selected action might have ended up with greater results on that one way of framing the whole matter and failure/refusal to account for a lot of individual particulars that would not have caused any kind of "better" sleeping to have had potentially been overallocated in dollars during that time.


Yes.. we know that you have a big ass hardon for Tone.. so what?  Can we move away from such topic at some point?


Again.. good for you... It seems that I have made a lot of emphasis in terms of BTC portfolio management to not give too many shits about the relevance and applicability of trading to the vast majority of normies including your truly.. but you want to go on and on and on about it as if it were the best thing since sliced bread.  


And so what?

I can watch any program on TV and find out all kinds of very interesting things that I had not known previously, but still does not make it a good use of my time if I am just learning random events that are neither of interest to me nor actionable by me.  Yeah, of course, there can be some entertainment value, but still does not mean that I even want to spend my time in certain kinds of ways that I have already concluded to NOT be very good uses of my time or areas of interest.. even if once in a while I might learn something that is interesting to me, but why spend 10 hours on something and learn one thing potentially interesting when I might spend 1 hour in some other area of interest and end up learning 10 things in that same hour.. which means that I could have had around 100x better bang for the buck, no?


Are you considering that you are in a trading thread here?  As if normies in this thread want to get into trading details?  or are you considering yourself to be providing more basic overviews that are good for the presumptive normies in this thread?  I will concede that members who participate in this thread are higher on the spectrum of knowledgeable about BTC, yet you are likely going to to have some difficulties convincing me that pushing for better understanding of the various nuances (getting into the weeds) of trading is really helpful in this thread.


Of course, there does seem to be a bit of a tendency for even relatively prudent folks to start to gamble when they are presented with options or tools that might not have traditionally been available to them with so much ease as can be found once starting to get involved in bitcoin.  So, if there are some normies who might consider various ways to get involved in bitcoin and storing it, and one or more of their ways of "getting involved" in bitcoin may well offer them options to trade or even to look into other supposedly "related matters," and yeah those kinds of offerings could well end up leading to unnecessary experimentations.


There have likely been quite a few of us who historically ended up keeping way more coins in certain locations that were not really good risk management locations.  So, sometimes it can take a while to learn about various ways to securely store coins, even for some of us who might be striving to spend more time studying the space.  Many of us probably have stories of not really realizing that some of our previous storage locations for what we thought to be kinds of "dust," ended up being way more value than  we would have considered prudent to maintain in some of those locations..

You can imagine that someone might think that it is acceptable to keep less than $10k in various less secure locations, but if the value starts getting above $10k they might start to worry that they are keeping too much value in x, y or z location.. so even someone who bought something like $5k coins in 2015 might have lost track of the value of those 20 BTC. and we can see at various points in time that $5k (20BTC) ended up being $400k in December 2017 and then nearly $1.4 million at various points this year.. and variations of that kind of value could have ended up getting away from some normies who had not been giving too much thought to how much their BTC holdings might have appreciated at various points in time.. and so maybe their perceptions of value get really messed up too when it finally sinks in regarding the various place that they might have been holding their BTC and perhaps even if they have to consider some other kinds of solutions (that might involve some need to learn some complicated things about self-custody and some folks do not feel competent enough to learn some of the seemingly more complicated things as compared with keeping their value with a "bank" and someone to help them if they might have some issues in the future...including death.. so some people reasonably can be hesitant in terms of NOT knowing what to do or how to balance these kinds of value matters.

Personally, I would suggest that any formula that you end up calculating to want to "put your bitcoins to work" you put no more than 5% of your stash at risk with any one entity (3rd party), and for sure look at their various terms to make sure that you are sufficiently collateralized or whatever other trick clauses might exist within the arrangement for you to earn likely unnecessary yield on your lillie fiends (especially when they are already designed to pumpening forever) laura.

Fuck that.

I am not saying that either.

We have known about bitcoin cycles for as long as I have been into bitcoin, so it's not like I am saying anything new.  We can attempt to recognize the cycles and attempt to analyze in accordance with various bitcoin dynamics or we can be loosey goosey about it and say that bitcoin is in a bull run forever or we can attempt some variations.. so there should be hardly any need for me to reassert some of the underlying price frameworks that I continue to attempt to assess bitcoin's price dynamics within... but I will repeat just for the sake of clarity - and currently we have 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.. and yes there are some vaguenesses in interpretation even within those frameworks.. yet I have also repeatedly argued that models that strive to denigrate those ones or fail to account for them or spin their own models are likely going to be lacking.. and for sure, none of us are going to necessarily agree upon where such balancing of proper attribution or weighting should be.


Yes.. I quibble with a lot of folks about this kind of terminology in terms of do we call corrections or short term to medium term momentum as bear markets.. and I am not going to do it.. .

Sure from time to time, we may well be in correction mode that can be described in a variety of ways, but I doubt that it is very helpful at all to be describing the overall dynamics of bitcoin as bouncing between bull and bear and bull and all of that, unless it is attempted to be captured within already existing data that has so far followed four year cycles.. and surely of course, we may well not continue to follow such 4-year cycles, but personally, I am not going to prematurely assume them to be dead, pronounce them as dead or even use terminology that bounces back and forth between bear and bull markets that ends up downplaying actual BTC price dynamics that I believe to continue to exist.


You can call it totally subjective all that you want.  That's your opinion.


I don't see much value in your supposed perspective of being above and beyond it all and being able to supposedly see both sides.


Yes... that's how it works sometimes... In this particular case, we did have a rise from $4,200 to $13,880 from April to June 2019 that started out the being in a bull market assessment, and then a drop down to $3,850 (about 72% down from the top and about 50% down in a day or two) in the liquidation crash of March 2020.... and yep.. we should be able to still assess that we were in a bull market the whole time, whether you want to call it something else or assess it as something else or not.. I believe that your attempt to call it something else is going to lead you to worse results in terms of knowing where we are at, how we got here or where we might be going.. .. but hey do whatever you like.l and yhou are not going to get me to stop from calling your assertions as nonsense if you want to assess that we moved from a bull 2017 to a bear in 2018 to a bull in early 2019 to a bear in late 2019 to a bull at some other arbitrary nonsense place and then to a bear again during the March 2020 liquidation event and some other various other back and forth nonsense since then.. ..


You are the one that used the word "technically" because you seemed to have been wanting to place bitcoin into some kind of traditional market definition of what is a bull market or what is a bear market.. and I already asserted what my assessment was.. whether that fits into some alternative technicality or not, I have already sufficiently explained it.. so no need to attempt to play gotcha.. because I already sufficiently explained what I meant. .whether you agree or not..  


I don't see how your explanation helps... but I do see people involved in bitcoin price analysis flip flopping around a lot in terms of where they assert that we are at.. which seems confusing to me, and I point out such confusion when I see such confusion taking place... and just to repeat myself, I have been asserting that we have been in a bull market since about May 2019 (that had started in about April 2019).. and I don't see any subsequent BTC price movements that would have knocked us out of having had been in a bull market since then.. so yeah at any time we could attempt to reassess the situation and to change the assessment, but until then, we are still in a bull market and have been in a bull market even though there were various decently sized corrections along the way.. as you have noticed and noted.


You can assess the situation however you like and call it whatever you like in order to come to your assessment of what had happen, where we were at or where we might have been going.. and I can disagree as I have already done.  


Yes, I heard about some of that hyperwave theory analysis, even while it was being argued.


Yes.. credible folks say all kinds of things and we can each assign our various probabilities to these various assessments.


Yes.. differences of opinions and approaches to portfolio management.


It seems like a big so what to me, and yeah surely some people want to play big in their various trades and other people do not... some people want to hold and just ride it down even if they see that a pretty BIG correction might be coming.

I doubt that the lesson would be that "we should try to better time the market," even though for sure people are going to get their own various lessons in regards to how they might consider managing their BTC portfolio in regards to future UPs and DOWNs in the price, which is seeming close to inevitable that there are going to be UPs and DOWNs but I doubt that anyone really has much of a clue about where the top or the bottom might be.. except just to assert it as some kind of probability that might not even be something reliable enough to trade upon.


For sure, ended up being a way to reck a lot of folks who were trying to time the top in that little run that did not really seem to want to stop, until it did.


You seem to be agreeing with me more than I deserve, but still I would describe that saving face situation as luck, if that was how it ended up playing out.

In other words, you seem to have been watching his particulars way more than me.


Of course, there is going to be some combination of luck and skills with any BTC trading or even trying to play a more conservative approach that trades the BIGGER BTC price swings or even some kinds of BTC accumulation focused strategies.  Sometimes, earlier executions or set ups are going to put a guy/gal into a situation in which s/he ends up in a position to take advantage of the earlier set up.. so yeah, any kind of BIGGER trade could allow for such set up in order to be able to take advantage of some kind of BTC price action at a later date (which may have been something like Vays's ability to buy back at about $4.5k-ish what he had sold at $17.5k-ish).


Who knows?  Sure objectively and retrospectively there is no way to really dispute that selling around 4x higher and buying lower is a good thing if you are able to know with some level of certainty.. but none of us knows with any level of certainty, even if the odds might seem to be high at certain times.. just like in the case of the 3.5x BTC price run-up in April 2019... .. hardly any normie would have been able to know that the BTC price was going to go up 3.5x in 3 months.. so there were quite a few reckt traders and even shorters...

So in the end, there are trade offs, and some people do not want to fuck around in those kinds of ways of managing their portfolio in terms of trying to time price moves up and down.. even if there might be some kinds of relatively prudent ways to attempt to lessen some of the volatility in your BTC holdings through such actions.. but even then there could be some balancing in which guys may well be more than willing to take some losses (or failures to gain more) and to just formulate models in order to mostly hold and accumulate BTC ..

So sure, if you want to model or aspire to a trading approach that depends on trying to predict bottoms and/or tops (or close to bottoms and tops) to manage your BTC stash, then that is your choice... I doubt that very many normies either have such aspirations or even should want to engage in such attempts if they do not want to enter into trading as a kind of profession or serious hobby and for sure in that regard DCA tends to be a better strategy (and maybe supplemented by lump sum investing, buying on dips and just HODLing through the various ups and downs rather than trying to sell BTC in order to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price).

You dummy.


Couldn't resist that easy layup.


Well, just think about it.. given naim027's forum registration date of October 4, 2017, even a modestly aggressive BTC investment strategy of $50 per week (given that Bangladesh does not likely have high incomes) would still have put naim027 at the accumulation of 1.2 BTC.. and so ONLY he can really know the extent to which he could have been more aggressive or if less aggressiveness (such as $10 per week) may have been required based on personal circumstances.. but even $10 per week would have put naim027 at more than newbie BTC accumulation target levels, at nearly 0.24 BTC.

It would not necessarily be fair to judge too much because we all know that mistakes can be made and we also all know that if we had failed to do anything, then there is no time better than the present to get the fuck started.... but even getting started can take time and none of us should be too impatient in terms of wanting to get impressive results right away.. or comparing ourselves (and wanting to be equals) to members who have been working on their own financial (and psychological) situation (through bitcoin) for longer periods of time... many of us have our own levels of mistakes that were made in terms of the extent to which we have met or exceeded some of the comparison (reference) points of some kind of straight-forward DCA approach...

And, even let's say that someone might have been in BTC for 8 years, but spends a lot of time fucking up the first 4 years, so maybe it would be unfair to measure the guy from 8 years of DCA'ing because he had only really started DCA'ing around 4 years time.. and sometimes there is not really any prudent and reasonable way to make up for the earlier mistakes of the first 4 years except maybe to be a bit more aggressive to maybe invest $200 per week rather than $100 per week.. but at the same time, there has to be cautions as well in terms of NOT overextending oneself and then ending up into some kind of quasi-mindrust situation based on either getting greedy and then not really prudently/reasonably managing the overall budget and state of psychological preparations.

I agree with quite a bit of what you said in your post, but the technical definition of a bear market in terms of bitcoin can go fuck itself, as far as I am concerned.

I had stated this a number of times that it seems that bitcoin has been in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019.. we have not bounced out of such bull market  even if there were several pretty decently large corrections along the way, including in late 2019 and then again March 2020.. - and I could give less than two shits if you want to proclaim "technically" blah blah blah  - bull market than bear market and then bull market again, and it largely seems to me that those kinds of assessments are way too likely to cause people to misunderstand what the fuck is going on, including but not limited to a kind of exponential s-curve adoption that has not really stopped in it's Uppity since April 2019...   also within a four year fractal that is described by PlanB's stock to flow model, which also has not been negated inspite of some of the corrections that have happened since April 2019.


I recall that at some point Vays did flip to bullish at some point... but he was calling for a need to revisit lower $1ks (which would have been the high from 2013), and so yeah, he always proclaimed himself to be long term bullish in regards to bitcoin and truly not any kind of shitcoin fan (so gotta applaud him for NOT mincing words in regards to the non-value of the numerous shitcoin scams), but his whole dominance in technicalities did also seem to fail/refuse to acknowledge and account for various bitcoin fundamentals.. that would not really allow the BTC price to drop as far as he was expecting it to drop.. so yeah, it was a bit annoying to hear some of the extent of his negativity sometimes during that 2018, 2019 and even sometimes even as late as early 2020... although for some reason I do not recall seeing as much of his technical analysis after the April to June 2019 3.5x Uptrend.. and so I do recall him admitting that he did not see that coming.... so he was kind of proven wrong there, but still persisted with some of his failure/refusal to appreciation BTC fundamentals -and  attempts to save face technical analysis...

Seems that you used the term "we," no?


Poor lil fella.

It seems that Raja_MBZ is waiting for the BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average, and we know that currently, the 200-week moving average is ONLY a little bit above $18k... Furthermore, it seems that the BTC spot price is very unlikely to hit the 200-week moving average before we are actually in a decently extended bear market...

Sure it is true that the BTC spot price did go below the 200-week moving average in March 2020 (at that time, the 200-week moving average was at about $5k).. but that seems to have been a kind of uniquely rare liquidity event that none of us should be counting on very high odds of actually occurring at any time soon in the near future.


Speak for ur lil selfie.

Now you are into the advices giving category with your seemingly keen abilities to assess whether a member (or a bot) is getting emotional?    Part of the humor remains your ongoing inability to even understand what you are reading.


Last time I checked, you posted a topic publicly... accordingly, any member has the ability to chime in with his/her perspective, whether the subject was directed at him or not.... I suppose another possibility could be for you to create a self-moderated thread naim027.. and then find out how many members are going to respond to you... might be a little test of both your popularity and the extent to which any members are inclined to interact with you in your own lil thread if you were to actually desire finding out.


It's a discretionary word, and sure you would be correct to point out that some words might lose some of their effectiveness if they are overused.


yes.. you and arriemoller have quite an original perspective to discover my unable to hide botness..   It's like you invented the idea... 

Amazing




amazing




amazing




What other unique perspectives would you like to share,  naim027? 





   


I suspect that a non-reaction does not even mean that no one cares.  More importantly, it seems quite lame that members are going to start to expect that they have to get a reaction to every post that they make.. Gosh, if I had to delete all of my posts that did not get reactions, I would be left with only a few posts (relatively speaking)...


What is a "Eth token?" 

Rhetorical question.. I really don't want to know.

 


I had not known about that linked thread that you pointed out, and I did a quickie glance through that thread and I merited a few of the responses therein, even if I did not feel that I understood very deeply into the background of some of the aspects of the story.  On a personal level, I do tend to stay away from several of the Meta threads, yet I can see how sometimes any of us could get drug into some of those threads (or some of those seemingly interpersonal topics or even if there might be some members who appear abusive of their forum status).. which getting drug into such topics/threads has also been the case for me from time to time.

There are some forum members who I have trusted for their participation in some of those threads/topics, and surely it can be confusing regarding if some claims about other members or their supposed connections (between members or corruption) are being made based on accurate information and/or reasonable/fair inferences.. .so for example, sometimes I will merit posts in which I might not really trust the member or his/her judgement but I believe that such member (or post) has raised some valid point(s) or helped to clarify or to bring some insight (or even humor).