Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aysg76]

$46k

Bitcoin is dead!

Today We Don't
Have Any
Motivational Quotes, If You Want
To Sale, Sale!
HFSP.

This phrase is pretty common to hear whenever there are similar situations of price dips or say crash and then who hates it come out loud speaking "Bitcoin is dead" and each year there are variations for it :

It has been declared dead approximately 423 times but the intersting part is it comes out even loud to fuck them up who says it is dead and grow insanely and you would find it's tremendous rise over all these years and these dips will not have much affect in the long run if you see.

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

Hey man you are early holder of 2013 as you said and even if you sell at this time you have made a fortune out of them and it's absolutely fine because at some point we will also cash out our profits and it all depends on how much we make and get satisfied with it in the end.You have done a great job holding over all these years and you are still holding 75% if your stash man c'mon it's also big considering your investment and your next plans to hold them whatever happens.

The best part is you are now chilled out and can relax because you have taken out funds at good profits so further you will gain more with time and btc pumps.The dumbass are those who have bought at top and now selling during these dips and god knows what's in their mind.

[1715611212]

1715611212

[1715611212]

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[tertius993]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

In contrast to the above, in many (most?) countries in the world, you will be put to prison if you shoot a burglar when he is inside your house, even if you legally carry a weapon. Even more surprising is the fact that, in the UK, police officers are not normally allowed to carry firearms (IIRC -- UK WOers, please confirm if that's the case).

That is correct, UK police are not routinely armed.  Only dedicated firearms officers, a tiny subset of the total force (about 5% according to a quick search), carry arms.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

In contrast to the above, in many (most?) countries in the world, you will be put to prison if you shoot a burglar when he is inside your house, even if you legally carry a weapon. Even more surprising is the fact that, in the UK, police officers are not normally allowed to carry firearms (IIRC -- UK WOers, please confirm if that's the case).

That is correct, UK police are not routinely armed.  Only dedicated firearms officers, a tiny subset of the total force (about 5% according to a quick search), carry arms.

This is correct . Only highly trained specialist officers do this work




https://www.statista.com/statistics/319246/police-fatal-shootings-england-wales/

 In 2018/19 the police in England and Wales fatally shot three people, compared with four in the previous reporting year, and six in 2016/17. Between April 2018 and March 2019, there were 13 incidents where the police discharged firearms, five more than in 2017/18 and the highest in a single reporting year since 2008/09.

[tertius993]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The time between the halvings is (obviously) related to the hashrate, and it has been consistently under 4 years so far:

Genesis block to first halving: 1425 days (roughly 3 years and 11 months)
First halving to second halving: 1319 days (~ 3 years and 7 months)
Second halving to third: 1402 days (~3 years and 10 months)

This makes sense as if you look at the historic difficulty chart it has been growing fairly steadily since the beginning, with a steep upward line since about mid-2017 (even allowing for the drop due to the China mining ban):



Also each time the difficulty adjusts it aims to bring the current rate back to the 10 minute block interval, it does not try to fix any previous over/under run.

So although it is possible that halvings will get to be more than 4 years apart it would take an extended period of falling hashrate.  We are already slightly ahead of schedule for the 2024 halving - predicted to be 17 March 2024, or 3 years and 10 months after the 2020 halving.

Accordingly I would expect that halvings will be consistently somewhat less than four years apart, at least for the next few halvings, but each one may be slightly longer or shorter then the previous one.

[tertius993]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start believing that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

I did a similar bit of analysis in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0

Though I took the price at the date of each halving and worked from that, and although it gives some similar results to you I think it implies the current cycle is still playing out:

The TL;DR is:

Each halving has a smaller effect than the one before and takes longer for that effect to be fully apparent:

First halving to following high: 103x increase after 366 days
Second halving to following high: 30x increase after 526 days

Predicted 3rd halving to following high: 9x increase after 755 days = $77k in May 2022

[BobLawblaw]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

For our ranch, the pipe posts every 100 ft were entirely painted purple from top to bottom.

Big, tall, girthy, permanent, tornado-resistant, heavy metal pipes, dipped in purple paint.

Really stands out nicely against the natural greens and browns in that area.

Can't miss it!

Much more efficient than "No Trespassing" signs that tend to be shot at by passing-by drivers, or end up in need of repair/replacement at some point.

Purple, thick metal posts will outlive us both, for when the nieces and nephews inherit the place.

The saying out here, I've discovered, is roughly "Once the fences go up, all the problems tend to just go away"

People get a bit strange when multi-generational structures get torn down and renewed.

Fuck me for building them a new fence, right?

*shurg*

EDIT: Example drone shots from the ranch border showing how the purple pipes are laid out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

If you are a whole coiner or aspiring to be one soon just think of this:

The last Bitcoin will take 40 years to mine!

 

[tertius993]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

For our ranch, the pipe posts every 100 ft were entirely painted purple from top to bottom.

Big, tall, girthy, permanent, tornado-resistant, heavy metal pipes, dipped in purple paint; top-to-bottom.

Is that not a problem?  According to an earlier post (no pun intended!) the purple paint must be “placed so that the bottom of the mark is not less than 3 feet from the ground or more than 5 feet from the ground.“ so if it goes right down to the ground it's not compliant.

Probably not serious, but you wouldn't want an issue on a technicality.

[serveria.com]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

For our ranch, the pipe posts every 100 ft were entirely painted purple from top to bottom.

Big, tall, girthy, permanent, tornado-resistant, heavy metal pipes, dipped in purple paint; top-to-bottom.

Really stands out nicely against the natural greens and browns in that area.

Can't miss it!

Much more efficient than "No Trespassing" signs that tend to be shot at by passing-by drivers, or end up in need of repair/replacement at some point.

Purple, thick metal posts will outlive us both, for when the nieces and nephews inherit the place.

The saying out here, I've discovered, is roughly "Once the fences go up, all the problems tend to just go away"

People get a bit strange when multi-generational structures get torn down and renewed.

Fuck me for building them a new fence, right?

*shurg*

EDIT: Example drone shots from the ranch border showing how the purple pipes are laid out.

You should have used rusty pipes instead man! Looks much more scary! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

Look,

Could anyone ask dat madafaka What about Bitcoin?  ^kidding

[eXPHorizon]

[cAPSLOCK]

Fuck me for building them a new fence, right?

*shurg*

EDIT: Example drone shots from the ranch border showing how the purple pipes are laid out.

In Texas fence building can be a SUPER LUCRATIVE business as far as I can tell.

I recorded albums for a Texas Country artist years back who does a LOT of house parties (post covid this was one of the only remaining income streams for musicians for a while).  This is great money for your top notch singer/songwriter type.  On rare occasion he has had me sub in for his regular drummer and once we played at a house in the "Highland Park" area of Dallas.  The owner was a man who continued his fathers business of fence building.  They did not do a lot of work in the Dallas city area, where fences are a different kind of business.  Most of their clients were ranch owners like you.  Most of the fences he built were measured in hundreds of yards (if not miles) rather than feet.

So the dude owned a construction business basically... a rather simple one really.  He did all the kinds... post and tensile wire like you show (looks like), or even metal crossbar fences or masonry.  Even the simplest construction possible will add up to an expensive project quickly because the the scale of these projects. He was LOADED.  Fence building is great business evidently!  Definitely more money to be made than playing drums...

[AlcoHoDL]

If you are a whole coiner or aspiring to be one soon just think of this:

The last Bitcoin will take 40 years to mine!

 

OK. This is interesting.

I did a quick calculation:

Going backwards from the last block, 1,808,390 blocks are needed to make 1 BTC (1.0000022 BTC to be exact).

1,808,390 / 6 (blocks per hour) / 24 (hours per day) / 365.25 (days per year) = 34.4 years (approx.) to mine the last BTC.

I could be wrong in my calculation above, but 34.4 years is still a very long time!

tl;dr: HoDL your corn, it will soon be the rarest monetary unit in the universe!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

End of year/beginning of new year prediction:

Some well-known entity or person is going to announce a sizeable bitcoin acquisition. It could be Elon Musk (again), Jack, M. Saylor, Ark Invest, or some other notable person or company we haven't heard about yet.

It'll either happen right before 2021 ends, or shortly after 2022 begins.

Just leaving this here for the funzies.

[Torque]

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

For our ranch, the pipe posts every 100 ft were entirely painted purple from top to bottom.

Big, tall, girthy, permanent, tornado-resistant, heavy metal pipes, dipped in purple paint; top-to-bottom.

Is that not a problem?  According to an earlier post (no pun intended!) the purple paint must be “placed so that the bottom of the mark is not less than 3 feet from the ground or more than 5 feet from the ground.“ so if it goes right down to the ground it's not compliant.

Probably not serious, but you wouldn't want an issue on a technicality.

I think he's fine. The regs are mostly about making sure that the paint is able to be seen, i.e., at roughly chest height to eye level, no high bushes or other obstructions, etc. That's because most trespassers will try to claim that they didn't or couldn't see the paint. I think his painted posts are fairly obvious, would definitely hold up in court.

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDboaDrHGbA

The Greyhounds are getting ready