Yeah.. you were holding us back..

So, I am glad that you decided to resume before the price got any worse.

Quoted for view of your image.  Sure.  A new poll would be nice.

For example:

Which one will happen first: 

$82k?

or

sub $55k?

Maybe that is not an adventurous enough question?

But notice my self-serving nature of picking what I had previously proclaimed to be  No man's land, which I will point out so far has not been breached since we entered into it - right around midnight - the start of February 27, 2023 - a bit less than a month ago... but who is counting? besides me?

That is correct, and if you lump sum (or front load) right away, then you run a risk that the BTC price might go down, so you can either supplement your having had front-loaded (at a higher than the subsequent dipped price) by continuing to DCA while the prices ended up being lower or to have some extra that had been set aside to be able to buy on dips (that you had not known were going to happen but that you kept the extra money, just in case the dips happened, and they did end up happening so you use some or all of it to buy more BTC).


Yes.. that is an accurate description.  The extra $1,500 that is used to buy BTC right away would be considered lump sum investing and/or perhaps even front loading your investment at the current price that may or may not be going up, but the front loading/lump sum investment is a kind of preparation for up and a kind of insurance for up, just in case the BTC price does not come down, you are prepared for up by employing the lump sum.  And, so yeah, from your $3k, you can choose any amount of that and call it lump summing, especially if it is higher than your regular DCA amount.. and perhaps if it is higher than the whole amount that you are going to put in for the month.. It is not exactly clear how much it would need to be in order to consider it a lump sum, but under that facts that you describe it seems to be a lump sum.. and maybe even if it was as low as $500 it could still be a lump sum, even though in that hypothetical, you are already planning to DCA $300 per month (at $75 per week).

A guy who has no bitcoin is not prepared for up.  A guy who is a low coiner might feel himself without enough bitcoin, but he might already be investing as much as his finances and psychology permit him to invest, so in that case he is not a low coiner who is fighting the idea of bitcoin, and so there could be low coiners who really are not very passionate about bitcoin that they might be like a no coiner who is against bitcoin, so those guys would not invest, but it is difficult to call a low coiner as being against bitcoin, since the fact that he has some coins means that he is not likely completely against bitcoin, even if he might be skeptical of it and lacking passion in terms of the level of his investment into it.


That is an interesting way of framing the matter BITCOIN4X.    So yeah investors would most likely be having a longer timeline, and in regards to profits, sure everyone prefers to be in profits, yet long term investors are not focusing narrowly on profits and they may not really know if they are going to be in profits 10 years or more down the road... They would like to be in profits and they hope to be in profits, but they are still investing whether or not they are going to be in profits and willing to live with the consequences in either direction, and yeah sure the better case scenario is  to be in profits down the road, and they had chosen their investment (in this case bitcoin) with a presumption that it has good odds of being in profits and also that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet which means there are some reasonable odds that it could be multitudes and/or magnitudes in profits, and so if they weigh the possibility of going to zero and weigh the possibilities of various upside scenarios, the calculation shows that it is better to invest into their investment (in this case bitcoin) rather than not investing.

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:

1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover)  - less than 1%

2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) -  less than 5%

3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) -  less than 8%

4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) -  less than 9%

5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) -  less than 10%

6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) -  around 10%

7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

11) Go to a price that is higher $10m -  around 7%

These ways of framing probabilities and price ranges for a 10-year timeline might not be exactly correct (because I am just kind of making up the numbers and the framing and trying to give a kind of possibility that I am considering off the top of my head), but we can still consider something like this as possibilities and to determine how much we might want to invest into bitcoin base on our own assignment of such numbers.  And, yeah of course the BTC price is not likely to get stuck in any of the price ranges that I list (especially in 10 years), but we might just be trying to get some kind of an idea where the BTC price might be 10 years from now.

You may notice that if we add up all of the scenarios we have 100% because it is meant to cover all of the possibilities of where the BTC price might end up 10 years from now.

And if we measure the downside scenarios from the current price, we have 33% and then there is just a matter of various degrees of upside scenarios that from the list, we might consider to be 67%.. depending upon which scenario but the upside scenarios add up to 67% with varying ideas of where the BTC price might land in the next 10 years-ish,  so we can develop further some of our BTC investment ideas and we can tailor our BTC investment in accordance with our current projections about possibilities of BTC prices into the future (in this case the next 10 years from today - or whatever alternative timeline that we might want to assign prices).  

By the way, I personally am more comfortable with assigning the 200-WMA to future valuations (rather than BTC spot price), but still we can measure the BTC price however we like.

And, of course, how the future plays out could help us to hone and to tweak our projections about BTC price, but we still have an outlook that is within ideas (framed in terms of probabilities that we have assigned) about how we might be thinking about bitcoin right now (at this particular moment regarding what might happen in the next 10 years), perhaps our ideas are guesses or maybe they are based on from where we came that helps us to assign probabilities to where we might be going in the next 10 years... and 5 years from now, we can make a new listing of probabilities for the next 10 years from that point.. or whatever, we can make a new listing of probabilities, whenever we feel like it and based on any kind of changes in our presumptions about what the numbers might be and if something in the real world might have changed some of our presumptions (that therefore affect our assignments of probabilities to a 10-year timeline or whatever timeline that we might choose to entertain).

Don't overdo it you old fart.

You cannot go from not doing anything and then all-of-a sudden try to make up for those days that you already lost.

This happens to be a marathon and not a sprint (especially if you are wanting to make it to 93 or whatever might be your target), so if you peter out because you over did it - even on the way to $100k, then you will have no one to blame, except u r lil selfie.

I am saying this in an attempt to help you (if that is even possible?)... not to hurt you.. because I care.. #nohomo

Wow.. nice example of a comparison of someone in his late 30s and getting close to 40 as compared with someone in his mid-50s, and I think that it is already clear that it becomes more difficult to keep on muscle mass once we get into our 30s, and so every decade later than that the challenges become more and more, in which the older guys are going to have harder time keeping on the muscle, they are going to have longer recovery times, and surely if they are fairly regularly exercising then they are likely going to have more success maintaining their physique.

When we look at a guy who is 17 years older than ourselves, then maybe we could be seeing some version of ourself in the future as someone who exercises compared to someone who does not, and we probably know guys who are in their 50s and 60s and they do not look very fit or very capable of doing any strenuous activities and we also see some guys in their 50s or 60s who appear to be very fit, and likely with variations of in-between kinds of guys, and surely attempting to stay fit is going to take some efforts, and maybe it is not always going to feel very good along the way either.. so each guy has to choose his level.

Surely there are some folks that are genetically gifted, but there are also likely some needs for each of us to compare ourselves to other versions of ourselves.  So we have versions of ourself who do not take care of themselves in terms of diet, sleep and exercise and there are versions of ourselves that attempt to maintain some kind of a healthy and active routine.. in which these pushups are meant to be some kind of activity that should be helping us out more than hurting us as long as we do not end up injuring ourselves in the process.

Yeah, but you are delusional if you are failing/refusing to recognize and appreciate that bitcoin bull and bear markets tend to take place over several years at a time, while at the same time they are delayed indicators in terms of when they can be called, so they are easier to describe historically rather than while we are in them (or if they have changed)..  

In other words:

1) we had a bear market from December 2013 to October/November 2015, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until about mid-to-late 2014.

2) we had a bull market from November 2015 to December 2017, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until about May 2016.

3) we had a bear market from December 2017 to December 2018, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until about mid-to-late 2018.

4) we had a bull market from December 2018 to December 2021, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until about May 2019.

5) we had a bear market from December 2021 to November 2022, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until about May 2022.

6) we have been in a bull market since November 2022, but many of us did not realize/recognize it until mid-to-late 2023.

7) don't be expecting BTC markets to be flip-flopping around and using dumb-ass terms to describe bear and bull markets, when you are merely just addressing short term trends within linger periods of time.

8 ) this current bull market has good chances of lasting anywhere between 9 months to 18 months longer, with several potentially large corrections within it but also several exponential Uptrends within it too. and so the reason it is considered a bull market is based on the odds for up being greater than the odds for down.. and yeah again by the time we are out of the bull market, we are not going to know, realize and/or recognize being out of it until several months (perhaps 6 months or more) after we are already out of it and after the top ends up being in for the cycle.


You seem to be mixing up the concepts of investor and trader.  Investors do not need to play on selling some of their BTC holdings until they have reached a status of having too much, and you don't get to a point of having too much by selling.. you get there by buying.

And sure, there is an option to trade bitcoin, but that is trading.. not investing.  And it is questionable whether it is a good idea to trade an asset like bitcoin which is either close to the best or the best asset ever known to mankind.... .... but don't get me wrong.. I have no problem with the idea of selling some BTC once you have enough or more than enough, but I don't consider it a good idea to be fucking around with selling BTC if you have already concluded that you don't have enough and your goal is to acquire more BTC. That seems a bit lacking in focus, and the kind of thing that loser do.. especially since we already know that an overwhelming majority of traders lose more than they gain.. especially if you try to compare them to a long term strategy of just buying and holding BTC.
 

Why? Waiting does not seem to be a good strategy for anyone who either does not have any BTC or does not have enough BTC.  The only way to be prepared for upwards price moves in bitcoin is to own some bitcoin.. and it takes a while to get to a point of having enough BTC.. especially if someone is coming to bitcoin and has no other investments, so all that they have is their regular salary to invest into bitcoin. it could take 10-15 years or longer to accumulate a significant and/or meaningful bitcoin position for someone in that kind of a situation... but waiting does not seem to be strategy that anyone should be advocating, especially if someone is trying to acquire a longer term BTC position.

Ok.  I will changed it to 44%.

33% seems to low.. but I don't know.  I am just kind of ballparking the guess in terms of considering that there is a certain amount of explosive momentum that still exists because we are still in noman's land and also because there may be decently good chances that Grayscale selling might dry up more than demand through the other 9 Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

You might be right though.. and I am really only talking about on the way back up rather than trying to hypothesize about whether $70k might be completely out of the picture... for example if we were to go straight up to $80k, then maybe at that point we might be able have higher confidence that $70k will never be filled.. .. so we seem to have the risk of going up through it this second time and then staying through it, which likely would mean that there would need to be further momentum on the upside once we were to get through it.. with a sufficient cushion.. and at this time I would put odds of $70k never getting filled to be less than 40%-ish.. .. maybe that one could be less than 33%.. but that also seems too low in my ballparking state of mind. and surely the difference is not really that great, yet I still have to go with my own current sense of things - which I am open to change as the facts on the ground change.

I doubt that there is any kind of need to earn 10% on your bitcoin in order to be incentivized to lock them in a risk-free (and self-sovereign) way, so the BIG questions would be whether the BTC is locked in a risk free (and self-sovereign) way, and if that were to be the case, I would imagine anything above 3% would be incentivized to earn yield on the most pristine asset known to man.

Part of the reason that many of the various shitcoin Defi products offer such high returns is also based on a decent amount of risk including third party risk bu als that they are using shitty assets as their medium as well.

Well I guess that I am not sure because the Overcast App is on Apple IOS but it might not be on android.   

I am sure that there are other places that you can get podcasts on your mobile device and then just look up Stephan Livera's podcast from whichever podcast provider you are using on your mobile device.

I was mostly attempting to give the example of a guy buying on the dip and then calling that lump sum, and that is the part that mixes the categories because why is there a need to call it lump sum if it is buying the dip?  Lump sum seems to be figuring out what to do with an amount that you have right now, and if you decide to buy the dip with part of it, then so be it, but if you decide to buy right now then why would that not be lump sum.


I doubt that the amount is really very important, but there is a bit of an assumption that Lump sum would be outside of your regular abilities to buy, so if you have a income of $3k per month and expenses of $2k per month, then you have $1k per month of discretionary income, and perhaps you DCA with part or all of that.

I would think that lump sum would need to be at least higher than discretionary income.. but there could be an amount of money that comes in extra from time to time, and there could be employees who sometimes will receive a once or twice a year bonus, and if they know about it, then they might already spend it before they get it.. or if they sometimes are not sure if they are going to get it, then once they get it, then all of that money might end up considered to be a lump sum, since it is kind of extra.. and maybe the bonus is $2k or $3k.. and then at that point there could be considerations about how much to invest into bitcoin and then if so how much to lump sum (buy right away), DCA and allocate towards buying on dips.


You can call it whatever you like, but I am not going to call buying on dip lump sum since in my mind those are different categories, even though I can see how people might convolute them merely because they are choosing to buy extra on the dips that are higher than their regular DCA.. but I still think that fails to recognize and appreciate the concept of the lump sum that buys right now.

I already gave the example in my earlier post of a guy who had suddenly received $6k, and I think that I explained that sufficiently well, but let me mix it up a little bit.

Let's say that the person is absolutely brand new to bitcoin, and he knows that he can invest $100 per week for the next 6 months from his salary (his discretionary income / his cashflow), and so that would be $2,600 that he is already planning to invest into bitcoin.  And so then he has $6k also that he can move from some other investment or maybe it is an extra amount that was in his cash reserves.., so with that $6k and the $2,600, that means that he has a total of $8,600 that he could invest over the next 6 months. He can divide it however he likes, except $2,600 is currently not available because that is going to be flowing to him in the next 6 months at a rate of $100 per week.  So he could lump sum invest anywhere between $0 and $6k, but then if he puts the whole $6k into the investment, then he has no money for buying on dips - except for the $100 per week that he expects to come in for the next 6 months, and that is a choice that he could change if he thinks that it would be good to set a bit aside for possibly buying on dips.. beyond the mere $100 per week that he has.

He could invest $4k right away and then just save $2k for buying on dips.. and instead of having 1 or 2 buys at some various price points, he could instead have 20 buy orders of $100 each all the way down to $40k.. and maybe they are $1,200 apart with the first one being at $63k and the next one at $61.8k and the next one at $60.6k and then next one at $59.4k etc etc etc... or he could have 4 buy orders of $500 each at various points on the way down.. so then he runs the risk that the buy on dip orders will not fill... so there is no guarantee that any of them will fill and that is the trade off that he has to make when he chooses the difference between how much he is going to buy right now with his lump sum amount or how much he is going to allocate for buying on the dips versus DCA.. and maybe he just wants to add to his DCAs and so that is another way of dealing with the extra money that he has available and either of those cases in which he holds back lump sum buying right now, are preparing him for down but they do not prepare him as much for up, and those are trade offs that guys have to consider and decide, since more down might not happen from here... but then if down does happen, does the guy want to have more funds than his DCA amount or is he o.k. with taking his chances and just lump summing all or most of the amount that he has available right at or around current prices. and there is no exact correct answer except that the guy should consider each of the three categories when it comes to funds that he has available to him..

Even with the regular cash coming in, the guy does not have to DCA right away with it, he can hold back some or all of it for buying on dips, or maybe having options to later lump sum the saved up amount if dips may or may not end up coming.


You make my point then.. because maybe you feel good because largely over the last year (and even over the last 16 months) the BTC price has been going up, so maybe you would not have had appreciated the DCA approach if the BTC price had gone down during the period that you have been buying BTC.

I think that you are way too new to DCA in order to consider it a resounding success, even though maybe it is the best that you have available, and so if you plan to continue to buy BTC for a whole cycle that would be interesting to hear.. or if you are not even able to make it through a whole cycle because you are mostly just planning to sell... so yeah. .it is hard to really consider that you really understand and appreciate the power of DCA until maybe you get through a whole BTC cycle.. and yeah, that's my perspective.. and surely you have to consider for yourself if you want to continue with it or if there might be some other kind of an approach that you plan to take over the coming 3-ish years, if you are even able to last that long in terms of your bitcoin journey.

It's going to be interesting, assuming up in the next week or so.. or maybe it will take longer, I am not sure... but are we going to skip $70k on the way up or not?

I am kind of torn about the odds, since it seems almost too much luck to completely skip it, yet I have no problem if that might end up being how it were to play out.. . .Maybe give it less than 43% odds of skipping $70k on the way up - assuming up at some point in the near future?

I am not sure if I get it.

It is almost like a walking billboard, and surely I do not agree with that message.  I consider Ledger to be a really inferior product.


That bull does not have balls... so technically there are some wee widdo itty bitty problems with that purported bull.

Doesn't fix  the lack of balls "issue."


Exactamente!!!!


I am glad to see that you guys are "on the case."

OP asked about investors, and you responded by talking about traders.

Of course, everyone may well define investor and trader differently, yet I have personally come to an assessment that anyone coming into bitcoin with less than a 4 year timeline is coming into bitcoin with a trading mindset, so in order to be a bitcoin investor then there should be a plan to stay in for at least 4 years, and better yet to have a 4-10 year or more plan to stay in.

Another thing is that any of us can come into an investment like bitcoin with any mindset that they like and including a person could come into bitcoin with an investment timeline to plan on staying at least 4 years from any injection of capital that s/he makes, and at the same time, such person could end up changing their mind and choose to abandon the investment prior to 4 years.. .. .

So yeah, investors and traders do not seem to be the same thing, and surely there are some people who come into bitcoin and they are not really sure about their timeline.. and maybe they are not considering themselves as traders, but if they are not at least trying to plan out 4 years or longer, then I think by default I would still end up classifying them as a trader than an investment based on their failure to mentally commit to at least 4 years.


Let's say in the coming month or two or perhaps 3 months, a person has no bitcoin and the BTC price has gotten to be between $75k and $100k, then what is such person supposed to do? Wait for the BTC price to come down prior to buying?  What if the BTC price does not come down?

The same questions for $100k to $160k - perhaps those prices within 1 month to 6 months.  person has no coins?  wait?

The same questions for $160k to $240k - perhaps those prices within 3 months to 12 months.  person has no coins?  wait?

The same questions for $240k to $540k - perhaps those prices within 6 months to 18 months.  person has no coins?  wait?

I understand the higher the price, the more justification to wait, but if a person  has no coins, then is the answer still to wait? or not?

Maybe two more scenarios

The same questions for $540k to $1.25 million - perhaps those prices within 12 months to 24 months.  person has no coins?  wait?

The same questions for greater than $1.25 million - perhaps those prices within 12 months to 36 months.  person has no coins?  wait?

Your argument (opinion or proclamation) about quality being better than quality is not based on actual facts and/or science and is also not even appearing to be true.. especially since there is not even any good way of differentiating what is meant by quantity versus what is meant by quality..

If we might say that both kinds of pushups are pretty much exactly the same, but the quantity pushup goes up and down within about a second.. perhaps slightly more or slightly less than 1 second per pushup, and the quality pushup goes down for 2 seconds and back up for 2 seconds.. Then perhaps those could be comparison points, yet none of us needs to comply with any kind of way that one guy is going his push-ups versus another guy, even though surely any of us could learn that the different styles of pushups are going to have differing kinds of advantages - but still in the end it remains discretionary in terms of what a guy would like to achieve and guys could find advantages and disadvantages in either style.. but he still has to choose.

Also a guy who decides to modify his pushups by doing them from his knees rather than doing full pushups, and personally, I would suggest that if a guy is not able to do 3 sets of 10 full body pushups, then it is probably better for the guy to modify the pushups and do them from his knees rather than doing 3 sets of 5-8 pushups.. and surely we may well have differing opinions on this, yet I had already provided some links that describe the differences between high weights and low reps versus low weights and high reps...

so in some sense a guy who is doing quantity over quality is choosing to do more reps and less weight, and the guy who is doing slow pushups, he is choosing to do higher weight and fewer reps.

Either way there is resistance training and strength training going on and an older guy (or an out of shape guy or a guy who is maybe not recently doing high strength exercises) is going to likely be better off to employ higher reps and lower weights yet he is still going to gain strength from that and he might be able to switch over to high weight and lower reps at some later date.. .. that is if he wants to do that.

Good results can be measured both in terms of how many pushups that can be done, and also in other ways that may well be individually measured - but also, the measurements of improvement is not necessarily scientific in regards to doing pushups one way versus another way, including finding a way that works for some of us that causes us to continue to do the pushups every single day and several times a day.. and surely there can be some value in terms of doing the pushups every day versus deciding to take breaks in order to allow the body to recover when the body may well not be injured but there could be some wearing out going on..  which none of us can really judge for others since adding exercises to our routines can cause us to be more physically exhausted.. including that we might have too many things going on in our lives so maybe we have to reduce the number of pushups that we are doing or to reduce some other exercises that we are doing in order to accommodate everything.

Our body needs time to recover, so we have to figure out our pace..

Yet, I will still say that similar arguments can be made in regards to bitcoin purchases over a long period of time, and some guys might proclaim that they are trying to perfect their bitcoin game, their entry price points, and they do this and that and the other thing to attempt to maximize their BTC buying price performance, so then they might become so proud that they bought $10k worth of bitcoin at the $700 price dip in late 2016 (so they bought 13 BTC)  and they bought another $24k worth at the $6k dip in 2020 (so they got 4 BTC more), and maybe they even bought another 1 BTC at $30k in 2023, so they have 18 BTC for a total of $64k (which is an average cost of $3,555 per BTC), and they might even end up happy for themselves due to their emphasis on the perfect ways to buy bitcoin including waiting for dips and blah  blah blah..   

yet, when push comes to shove, the guy who had been consistently, persistently, continuously buying BTC for the last 8 years may well be way better off even if he ended up spending way more, but he ends up with way more BTC.. so if he had been buying $250 per week for the last 8 years, he would have had invested $104.5k  and he would have purchased 30.65 BTC, and his average cost per BTC is right around the same $3,410 per BTC, but he has 12.65 more BTC, so in the end he has way more BTC because he was ongoingly consistent and persistent in buying those coins.

With pushups what are we attempting to measure?  maybe there is some importance of tailoring some kind of measuring system or even some kind of consistency that allows a guy to stay in the game?  Does that fit into a category of quantity, quality or maybe it should be whatever the guy wants to do, and he may or may not be able to compare what it would be like to do another way, but it is up to him to both put his preference into practice and also to figure out the extent to which he might want to deviate from his preference.

There may or may not be value in doing pushups every single day, but I think that part of this challenge is to try to put a system in place in which you can do push-ups every day.. and yeah, you don't have to do 100 push ups, you can do however many you like and you can even skip days if you like, yet for me, I personally consider it better to do the pushups every day rather than to skip, and you can even choose your quantity and/or quality of pushups and preferably each of us finds a way that each of us can do them every day, even if other guys might speculate that they are not doing their push ups in a good enough way and some guys might choose not to do pushups every day.

I finished my pushups for today (my 48th day of pushups), and besides my own testimonial about feeling improvement in the quantity and the quality of my pushups and even in the amount of rest that I may or may not need between push-up sets, you should still be able to see from the mere quantity and times of my push-ups in the below-attached spreadsheet that there appears to be improvements in the pushups.. just by looking at daily quantity and the times that they were done.. and I am the one who measures if I am doing my pushups the same and the extent to which I am exerting myself or getting tired within each of the sets, but I will tell you that I can do way more pushups now than I could at the beginning of this challenge, so my body is stronger, even though I also have pains and tiredness.. I am experiencing improvements with the passage of time.

It is important to highlight again that once an emergency fund is established, it is likely just going to sit there and it is not going to be a burden, but initially establishing the emergency fund might take some time and it might feel like a burden.  Of course, the reserves might bounce up and down a lot more, but whatever the reserves are used for that is going to be within the guys discretion regarding how much cash to keep available in reserves, whether the reserves are designated for buying on dips or for other purposes, and surely  if some of the reserves are used for buying on dips then they might need to be reestablished.. and again there can be quite a bit of variance in regards to how the reserves are treated.. .. but still it seems to me that there could be choices to maintain an emergency fund at a bare minimum of 3 months.. and maybe an extra month in there.. so 3-4 months, but then if there become situations in which someone believes that his income is not secure or his health is not secure or that there might be some reasons to increase the emergency fund because some things in his family and/or business are complicated, then he is going to be way better off to identify those needs earlier rather than later.. which could result in greater emergency funds, greater reserves and even keeping a greater float too... and if the BTC investment grows and grows, there could be some temptations to dip into it and so no one can really say how to manage those funds, and guys sometimes end up making the wrong choices... and not realizing until much later that he would have had been way better off to not take as many chances and to maintain various cash cushions, even if it is seeming like a lot of that cash cushion value is not working and is losing value by sitting around... but it still might be the better thing to do in terms of making sure that the various kinds of cash cushions are sufficient and some of them are not being touched.. especially the BTC investment and the emergency fund..


I think that people get the term lump sum mixed up, since lump summing does not need to happen on the dip, and surely if you are buying on the dip whether you choose to do a large amount or a small amount, I still would not consider that to be lump sum investing.

I think that the more pure way to think about lump sum investing is that you have some money and you have to choose right now if you are going to buy BTC with it or are you going to set it up as a DCA or buying on dips.

Of course, you can do all three, but lump sum investing is more likely going to be a phenomena that applies when someone might have some extra money that comes to him or that maybe he is transferring over from some other investment(s) that he has.

So we could think about it in terms of a person being brand new to bitcoin and then he has an amount of dollars that is he wanting to get started investing into bitcoin, or we could think about a person who has been in bitcoin for a year or two, and then all of a sudden he has a lump sum amount that comes available to him.... Let's say that a guy had been DCA buying bitcoin at $50 per week for the last 2 years, so he has invested right around $5,200 into bitcoin so far and so he has accumulated right around 0.2 BTC, and yeah the last couple years has been pretty good so his BTC is worth right around 2.5x the amount of his investment, and his budget allows him to either continue with $50 per week or maybe he can even work towards increasing his DCA amount, and then all of a sudden, he realizes that surprisingly, he has inherited $6k, and so all of a sudden he has more money that he can invest into bitcoin, and he is faced with a dilemma regarding if he should just buy $6k worth of bitcoin right away (which would be a lump sum investment), or he could divide the amount into 3 parts.. and put 1/3 into each of the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips. . and he does not need to divide them up equally, and he might choose to put $4k into buying right away, and have the other $2k for buying on dips and to just continue to DCA with his regular salary at $50 per week or maybe he is coming to a pint to be able to increase  his DCA amount based on improvements in his overall financial situation.   

The way he divides the buying on dips is not necessarily lump sum investing, so guys here like to mix categories and say that lump sum investing is going on because a large amount might be invested on the dip, and I consider that to be sloppy thinking that fails to recognize and appreciate the difference in the categories.. even though some times the categories can seem like they overlap, but they likely can still be considered in their separate conceptual frameworks in order to make decisions based on the different kinds of trade-offs that might exist based on how a guy might choose to invest any sum of money that he has coming in.


More importantly, DCA helps a guy to manage his budget and to manage his entrance into BTC.  Of course, there might be some concerns about average costs per BTC, yet most likely if a guy is 10 years or more into his investment, his is mostly going to be concerned about how many BTC he has and how much they are worth rather than what his average cost per BTC might happen to be.  Sure of course, he wants to be in profits and he even wants to have some of his BTC with multiples of compounding value, yet if he had been buying $100 per week of bitcoin over the next 10 years, he is most likely going to be concerned about whether he had managed his budget well through all of those years and was still able to live his life while he was building up his BTC investment, and maybe at some point he is going to see that he has enough BTC or that he can change some of the ways that he accumulates BTC. 

Yeah.. DCA works for rich people, poor people and average people, yet rich and average might be able to establish their position faster than the poor man, and so the poor many might not have a choice but to follow DCA method for 15-20 years or more before he starts to feel that his investment is building up to a point in which he might be able to employ other kinds of strategies.

Even a rich man may choose DCA to make his first entrance into an investment like BTC, and so let's say that the guy has a $2 million investment portfolio, and so he is considering coming into bitcoin fairly aggressively and perhaps getting a 10% to 25% position in bitcoin (which would be a $200k to $500k allocation to bitcoin), yet he remains a bit nervous about trying to sell other assets in order to establish his BTC position up to his target levels, so he is trying to figure out ways to get into BTC without creating tax consequences for himself, and so even if he might have various lump sum payments in the process of getting started, he also might consider that it might take him 1-2 years to actually establish his 10% to 25% position.. which may well be best established by DCAing rather than overly lump summing, but if he is worried that the BTC price might go up fast in the short term, then he may well try to front load his investment to get it into play in a shorter period of time, but he still might have trouble doing it in a way that is anything other than a kind of DCA approach that involves large amounts.. such as $10k per week... or some other amount that he might consider to be manageable - depending upon from where he is drawing his revenues... If he already has some cash available that is around $100k, then that might only last for 10 weeks with a $10k per week plan, so even the rich guy might have some dilemmas, and DCA might fit into the picture.

Some folks like to suggest that Michael Saylor (MSTR) is buying on dips and/or lump summing, but that is ridiculous since they are just getting distracted by the amounts that Saylor is investing into BTC.  Largely Saylor has been buying BTC almost every quarter since August 2020, and so Saylor has been employing a form of DCA especially since he seems to buy BTC when he has the money and not so much in regards to the price, so he is not really lump sum investing and/or buying on dips, and surely some quarters, he is able to secure various kinds of financing so he gets more money to buy BTC, but he still tends to buy BTC as soon as he gets the newly authorized money rather than diddly daddlying around and waiting.. so Saylor on behalf of MSTR has largely been DCAing his investment into BTC over the past 3.5 years.


Nothing wrong with buying BTC at any price, especially if you do not have any BTC or you don't have enough, and also it helps if you have a 4-10 year or more investment time horizon and you are continuing to buy.

if you are merely trying to make a quick turn around, then you might get into trouble.. so part of the more important issue might be concerning how long the buyer is planning to stay into bitcoin rather than if his entrance point might have been higher than he could have had gotten.. especially since if someone is brand new to bitcoin, then the only way that they can prepare for up is by having some bitcoin, and if they do not have any then they are not prepared for up.

If you are suggesting to ONLY prepare for down by waiting, then it could be that the down possibilities are no longer available.. Do you know from here?  Is this enough of a dip to buy or should the newbie to bitcoin or the low coiner wait for more dip?


Yeah but when did you start?  You have ONLY been registered on the forum for less than a year.

In the below linked podcast, there is a 45 minute discussion about the ongoing expansion of the Mi Primer program into several other countries, besides its start in El Salvador Stephan Livera Podcast: Mi Primer Bitcoin Goes International with John Dennehy SLP558

You seem to have a pretty narrow view, and you also seem to assume that because the BTC price has gone up then it is bound to correct, which may or may not be true.

If you do not have any bitcoin, then the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy bitcoin.

Furthermore it can take a real long time for a newbie to build a bitcoin portfolio, perhaps 10-15 years or longer, so there could be  a lot of value in getting started, rather than waiting.. and no one really understands all aspects of the bitcoin market, so there likely is no problem to get started and to learn as you go and learn as you are initially establishing your position, whether you are starting with $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount that might be appropriate to get started.


This is a very good example. .The need to get the fuck started and to figure out some of the other details later.


Timing may well be a more advanced technique and also apply to someone who had already established a decent bitcoin position.. and yeah, almost no one needs to be fucking around with time, especially if they are starting out without any bitcoin.

Now, if they have $12k that they can invest into bitcoin and maybe they have another $6k that they are going to earn over the next 6 months, then they have $18k over the next 6 months, and if they don't want to invest it all (even the $12k that they currently have available), then maybe they could start by investing $4k to $8k right away and then dividing the other portion into buying on dips and/or DCA... yet one of the important things is to get started with some kind of plan and then if the person is really whimpy then maybe they don't invest right away and maybe they set up some buy on dip points, but that is likely a loser strategy if they are starting out without any bitcoin, so even if the BTC price might start to correct, it is probably better to get the fuck started with some kind of investment right away and then perhaps supplement with the other strategies of buying on dips and DCA.

But hey whatever, people can do whatever they want, and if they are no coiners and lowcoiners who are waiting for dips rather than acting, they may well end up being on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer known to man because they were too timid in their ability to figure out some kind of a working position size, even if it might be starting out whimpily. .whimpily is likely to be better than nothing...Of course, no guarantees, yet each of us are responsible for our own actions, and even failing/refusing to act is an action and each of us is responsible if we choose to go down the course of failing/refusing to act.


I think that you are trying to pigeon-hole too much if you are trying to describe a pensioner in too much of a narrow way, because there can be pensioners who have differing levels of pensions, and also pensioners who are newly starting to draw from their pension or pensioners who might have had been drawing on their pension for a lot of years.

Surely any pensioner would have to consider his investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer and also might need to focus on whether he is able to at least invest a minimum of 4 years, and the concept of fuck you status might not really apply so much for a pensioner, especially if the pensioner is already NOT working, since the idea of fuck you status is being able to discontinue working.. perhaps even before such a time that regular folks go into retirement status.. so a pensioner is largely already in retirement status, even though there still are going to be some pensioners who might still work and some of that extra work might be due to necessity and other might be as a form of optionality and not directly motivated by finances. even though presumably anyone who is working would be receiving money for the work.


Pensioners might already have a lot of experience investing.  It seems problematic to be considering pensioners as if they were just starting out, and another thing is that any part that they invest may well start to be drawn upon down the road, so maybe if a pensioner invests $50 per week into bitcoin for 4 years (which would be $20,800 invested), then maybe after 4 years or so, then maybe the pensioner will start to withdraw some amount from the pension . maybe if the amount had appreciated to $40k, then maybe the pensioner could start to withdraw at somewhere around $100 per week or some other amount that the pensioner believes to be a good supplement of his income... so then if he does not have any idea of when he might die, then maybe he could keep withdrawing at $100 per week for 10 years or longer.. which in part might depend on how well the BTC keeps its value and whether he is withdrawing at a sustainable rate... as i describe these ideas in my sustainable withdrawal thread.


There is a difference between starting from scratch versus if someone is already receiving or about to receive a pension.. so of course, at any point in time, a person can supplement their other kinds of income by investing into bitcoin. They do not need to exclude their other sources of income merely by choosing to supplement their income with their bitcoin investment that later down the road may well come in handy in terms of providing more options, whether someone is brand new to bitcoin and investment or even if the person may have already been investing int bitcoin and other things for many years, there could be decisions about whether to increase a bitcoin investment, which might even sometimes have options of rolling other investments into bitcoin which can come at various stages in life in terms if someone is already retired or perhaps nearing retirement.


You likely should want to try to be as aggressive as you are able to be without ever touching your BTC investment for 10 years or longer... so if you are more easily able to resist touching your BTC if you invest a smaller amount, then that is your choice.

There are so many people who are unable to resist touching their investment, and you seem to be that kind of a person, so you have to figure out a way to teach yourself how  to invest in a long time period without touching the investment and letting it build and grow.  Likely part of the solution is that when you invest, you also create an emergency fund that you never touch and then also establish reserves that you can touch and also a float which also is going to vary throughout the month.. so in the end you have to figure out way to maintain layers of protection so that your bitcoin is not serving as your emergency fund, and you are exercising responsible financial management that you likely are mostly using your reserves for any fluctuations and emergencies and you hardly ever would be touching your emergency fund absent a big emergency.. but if you prepare, you may well not even have to touch your emergency fund in an emergency because you would likely spend from your reserves first.. but of course, however you set up these funds and put them into practice is completely within your discretion and hopefully any amount you put into bitcoin can be stocked away, perhaps 10-15 years or longer. especially for guys like you who seem to be tempted to dip into your bitcoin investment way before it is even time to be dipping into it..

yeah, if you don't know what the fuck you are buying then you are likely not going to do very well by investing in a bunch of random coins.

Only bitcoin is good for long term investing.  If you are generally referring to shitcoins, then you need to be more careful in terms of actually holding onto them.. but yeah, if you have 90% bitcoin and then the other 10% are a variety of shitcoins that you have personally chosen, then yeah, maybe that is o..k. .. but the main one to focus your energies upon (especially in terms of long term investing) is bitcoin not some shitcoins that you are not even able to name..

In other words, learn what is bitcoin first before you start to recommend that it is a good idea to buy some unnamed shitcoins whose performance is likely already just correlated to what bitcoin is going to do.. and not even strictly correlated since the overwhelming majority of shitcoins are going to go to zero, relative to bitcoin.. so why hold them?  especially in the long term? careful about allocating more than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings to shitcoins.. especially shitcoins that don't even have a name.

That still does not make a whole hell of a lot of sense, even though surely there are comparisons that can be made in terms of figuring out some way to benefit from doing pushups without over doing it.. and the same is true in bitcoin.. to invest into it aggressively  but not so aggressively that you overdo it and you end up contributing to recking yourself... ..

so I suppose in those kinds of senses, a guy can take a good thing and go too far with it, whether it comes to pushups or it comes to investing into bitcoin.


There are many of us who are either not used to push-ups or we are getting back into doing push-ups after many years of not doing them, or maybe we are getting older or maybe there might be a girl or two in here.  So in any of those cases, it is likely way better to work up towards doing pushups and don't get too worked up about whether your push-ups are quality enough or if they are of the most stringent kinds of push-ups and all that bullshit that is more likely to be more applicable to guys who are either way younger, in better shape and/or already used to doing pushups.

Another thing is that focusing on quantity does not necessarily mean that a guy is being sloppy or not achieving a variety of kinds of potential improvements in his health.  For one thing, I am now able to do more pushups and so I have had several sets of 45, 50 and even 55 pushups in one go.. and yeah it is hard for me, and surely if I was to do a 2 seconds down and 2 seconds up pushup, then maybe I could ONLY do 10-20 pushups, and I am not even going to try it because I am not at that level of fitness yet.. and maybe down the road.. after a few more months of pumping out quantity of pushups, I might get bored enough or feel some kind of need to focus on quality pushups and to change my strategy.. .. another thing is that if some of us guys have not been exercising rigorously, we have body fat and sure there is muscle underneath, but it takes a fucking long time to build that and to even get rid of the fat, and it might  not even be possible to start to look like some kind of an Adonis-like creature.

Another thing, even if I am doing 40-55 pushups fast, I can feel it in my core, and it hurts.. and I am spending around a minute doing those pushups and even my back hurts from keeping my body like a board during that process.. and if I am doing 409-55 pushups, then I am spending around 2x the amount of time in that pushup status and like a boar than I was spending when I was doing 20-25 pushups... and so I don't feel that I am cheating myself or even cheating others since I might be doing 2x more pushups than the younger guys who are doing "proper pushups," but I give few shits. 

The younger guys have their own challenges that they need to figure out what is good for their own situation.. including there are a whole fucking lot of things that I used to be able to do that I am not able to do and likely I will never be able to do again.. which is kind of sad but it is a truth.. there are some things that we have to realize and appreciate about the aging process. and yeah, maybe I will surprise myself and come to be able to do some things that I though that I would never be able to do, but whatever it is, it is it is ONLY going to go so far because there are physical limits.. including I remember 10 years ago when I used to go hiking with this young girl and she would just say, think positive and you can do it.. and fuck that shit.. there is ONLY so much positive thinking that you can do when your body is only able to go so far at a specific time in its development... and even 10 years ago, I was experiencing some limitations, and now 10 years later, I am not able to do some of the things that I could do 10 years ago.. so there is a progress (or a degeneration) and some things just are not easy to maintain and getting back to your youth status  is a kind of fantasy land kind of thinking... and some guys might not even know some of these things.. because I know that there wee somethings that historically, I could just power through them. .and I did several physically taxiing kinds of activities, but when you get older sometimes you know that you cannot power through certain kinds of limitations or you might either end up injured (permanently disabled) or dead.


It can be hard to fit them all in and maybe even sometimes, some of us might get overly tired and wonder if maybe we have to do fewer or fewer sets... so there is a need to find a balance, and I doubt that skipping days is a good place to go, either physically necessarily or psychologically necessary, .. especially since these are body weight kinds of exercises.. unless maybe we might have injured ourselves then that might be another story.. and so it is very good if we can make sure that we do not end up injuring ourselves, and sometimes we might not really know...

My dad has some joint problems, and I think that maybe I might be vulnerable (in a kind of genetic way) to some of the same issues as him, and so when my shoulders hurt so much before during and after pushups, sometimes I think that maybe I need to lighten up a bit in my number of sets or my quantity of pushups, and so it can sometimes be difficult to know if maybe we might be pushing ourselves too much in terms of quantity and or quality or the type of pushups that we are doing based on certain kinds of pains that we might be experiencing and whether some of the pains might start to go away too..


Sometimes we might not realize that when we are skipping the pushups we are not helping ourselves to be able to do more pushups or better quality pushups, so there likely is a bit of value in persistence. but we still have to figure out those kinds of balances too... and probably if we keep doing them and if we are keeping track, we can look at our improvements through time or maybe we might see areas of a lot of stagnation and to consider if there might be something that we might need  to change.  So far, I am not really seeing stagnation with my pushups. especially since my average number of pushups per day continues to go up.. which one of my current ways of measuring my own personal progress. .and maybe at some point I might have to change the metric.


I bet in the whole group of participating members in this thread, we might already be getting close to 50k pushups.. and we might even already be over that.... even though some guys are not reporting their totals and even though no one is keeping track on a more global level.


That is bullshit.

Men and women are different physically, and sure some women might want to prove themselves but it is not necessary.. but whatever, they can do what they like and yeah there are going to be some women who are stronger than men too.. but on the average, men are built different than women and generally physically stronger, especially upper body strength. and several other physical strengths.. .. and  yeah it could be possible that in some kinds of endurance exercises, some women might be able to beat the shit out of men, and some of that is due to their training rather than their natural abilities or even their inclinations.

I doubt that we need to argue these kinds of points..   and I am not even trying to either not welcome women to doing pushups or even proclaiming that I am stronger than women who are either physically bigger than me or who might be 20 years younger than me... and yeah, I know a lot of women who could kick my ass physically, but that still does not mean that as a general rule women are equally as physically powerful as men.


If you are proclaiming that you are not a woman, then why is there a need to say that they will come and participate, when at this point we have no evidence of any members claiming to be a woman and participating in this thread or this challenge.

Anyhow, there is no reason for anyone to dox themselves as a woman and maybe in the end it really does not matter too much.. I am still going to stand behind my claim that pushups tend to be more of a guy's kind of exercise.. and yeah women can do them.. no problem... but they may or may not really be as interested in pushups, even though a lot of women like to do core exercises, which is also good.. and push ups can be a decent kind of a core exercise, but there are other core exercises too that are done in Yoga.. and I am not much of a yoga person, even though I know some of the poses are difficult as fuck to do and to maintain, and I am pretty sure that there are way more women who do yoga than men.. just like this article says around 80% of Yoga participants in the USA are women..

Sure of course they could afford to do that, and it would still be less than 5% of their budget, since their daily budget is close to $1million per day if they were to use a 5% rate.

It is a bit problematic to measure what you are doing (especially when it comes to dollar cost averaging kinds of purchases) in terms of BTC rather than in terms of dollars, because pricing the asset in terms of dollars would naturally cause buying more BTC when the prices are lower and fewer BTC when the prices are higher.. but then we should all realize that the world values are still measured in terms of dollars, and not in terms of bitcoin - since bitcoin is very volatile in regards to the dollar, not only because their is a war going on right now, but also because bitcoin is still in its earliest stages of exponential s-curve adoption..

 so there is going to be more value to figure out ways to be more rather than less aggressive in terms of BTC accumulation.. but to also limit such aggressiveness in terms of real world considerations and real world considerations are still priced in terms of dollars, not bitcoin.  So yeah, your suggestion is more aggressive than what they are currently doing, but I think it is still too whimpy and it is also denominated wrongly (and in fantasy terms rather than more realistic terms).


Oh gawd..    You sound looney and like you don't even understand what the fuck is bitcoin.  Who cares about the whales and the big holders.  There are still coins on the market and anyone can buy them.;. .and yeah people who got into bitcoin are going to be more and more advantaged by the extent to which others are coming into bitcoin later and buying later, which is one of the main justifications to get into bitcoin as soon as you can whether you are an individual, institution or a state...

and if you don't get into bitcoin sooner rather than later, then you are going to either have to enter bitcoin later and pay more or you are going to have to have fun staying poor including suffering from being on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind.. and the criteria for the wealth transfer is that you have bitcoin.. so those who have bitcoin are going to be the recipients of the wealth transfer, and those who don't have bitcoin will be the ones who are losing their value to the coiners.. so better jump onboard sooner rather than later rather than getting worked up about whether you are unjustly pumping the bags of the guys who got in earlier...that is a losing mentality to think about bitcoin in those kinds of jealously (whining) laden ways.