Well.  One thing is forgetting your password, and another thing might to be going and telling everyone your password and you various "secrets" because you had gone into a hallucinogenic state.

I don't advocate such.

Regarding the substance of the matter.

I will agree that we can never really know when a pump might end up happening - and surely there can be some benefits that come from elements of surprise.. .. and I think that we are still getting used to this world of ongoing buying pressures through those newly formulate onramps, aka bitcoin spot ETFs.

I have a hard time figuring out from where exactly they are getting their coins.

Yeah, we see a lot of coins flowing out of GBTC, so surely there seems to be attempts to paint that as if it were some kind of a negative, when the inflows into other ETFs have been way outpacing the GBTC outflows - especially when you zoom out over several weeks - and even a couple of months of inflows and clearly new demand. .. so who is selling?  I don't know, but someone's gotta be selling.. unless they are fractionally reserving.. which surely I am not going to presume any of those twats to have actual integrity, if there might be areas for them to get away with shenanigans.

So yeah a pump could come at any time.. we've been floating largely $74k to $60k if you could call that a correction. .. but it was enough to wake dragonvslinux for a short period of time. .and almost animate him into losing a bet.. but then now we are back int he upper $60ks and lower $70ks for nearly a week.. and yeah, not quite a week.. since maybe it is important that a bit of an up-leg from lower $60ks to upper $60ks took place at the end of last weekend and the beginning of the week.. to the extent that even matters.. business days and all of that.

But then on the other end, it had been a bit more than two weeks since we last seen an ATH, and that was at the end of that particular week..

I don't know or claim if ATHs might not be sufficiently reasonable to happen on the weekends too..

Why not?


Edit: For some reason when I wrote the above, I was thinking that we were already in the weekend.. .. so getting my days mixed up.. and maybe just go ahead and forget about every thing that I said above that relates to anything that related to anything.




Any of us likely hate to sell too much too soon, but surely this does not seem to be a bad place to shave some off, especially compared with $27k in October... and also it could have been that we would have been dickering around with mid-$40ks and lower $50ks until the halvening .. which seemed like a pretty likely scenario until the ETFs actually went through and launched us clearly in the middle of noman's land that also being considered as our new don't wake me up zone, which surely seems strange to consider this price range with those two names at the same time, but if the glove fits, put it on.


When in the don't wake me up zone, it is optional to sleep.


There can be dilemmas regarding if there is enough money in the various accounts that are already in dollars to pay the bill, so then just move a little money around so that there is enough in the account that is paying the bill... so then it comes in handy to have some of that money just hanging around.. .. yet at the same time, don't we also sometimes worry if we have too much cash that is just hanging around and it is not working?.. I hate to get sucked into those luring ideas of yield and interest and dividends, even though surely there is some attractiveness in having your money working versus not working, and another thing is that I will admit that I did have to sell some cornz to cover the float.. or to be able to maintain my sufficient cashfloat.. which meant that I ended up selling around 0.3% of my BTC stash, and hey that should just be a rounding error correct?.. I mean I probably am already to a status that I am permitted to sell way more than that - even 30x of that and to even claim that it is sustainable to be able to sell up to 10% per year..... so still dancing around ideas of being able to sell 4% to 6% to 10% per year. .. and look at me getting all worked up over a mere 0.3%.. .. even if I sold that every single month. .that would not even add up to the 4%.. it would be 3.6% for the whole year.. .. gotta pick up the spending game.. I keep saying to myself, but not really complying.. .

Maybe I should bid against Bob's 55 acres to the south of him?... and we could become neighbors?  good ole buddies?

Could you actually imagine bob as your neighbor in real life?

Bitcoin is probably around 1,000x better than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years before he market reflect that - unless bitcoin ends up breaking before then.. .. or something better comes to supersede bitcoin in order to take away its current place as a superior/strongest monetary asset.


I wasn't trying to specifically point out anything related to your actual finances, but instead giving an example of a wage and an ongoing aggressive BTC accumulation that could have had happened in the last 18 months at a rate of about 15% of someone's income... and yeah, some guys might not been able to accumulate BTC that aggressively because they may well have to put other aspects of their finances in place and also figuring outways to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to potentially achieve that level of aggressiveness... and that was part of the reason that I suggested that I anticipated that your situation was likely not even as good as the one that I was describing in terms of being able to get to a point of having 6 months worth of your income in BTC after ONLY being in bitcoin for less than 18 months.


I was not even really suggesting any kind of withdrawal even under those kinds of circumstances that were described in which the BTC price could double from here and then double again, and then those kinds of dynamics should be considered.. even though for sure a guy with even 2-3 years of value in BTC does not really seem to be in a position of withdrawing, but he may well be in a position in which he might been some needs to reallocate an to diversify out, whether it is bolstering his emergency fund and/or his float or diversifying into some other assets - and I surely am not referring to shitcoins or even locking up large amounts of value.. and yeah, there are guys who are in places in which it is nearly impossible to invest into anything besides bitcoin and shitcoins, so those are choices that guys would be faced with . and anyone getting into gambling shitcoins better be limiting his exposure to less than 10% of his BTC holdings.. .. .. but anyhow, since we have guys from all over the world, there could be guys who have access to investing into index funds or something, and even if they have 2-3 years of income in BTC, they still might be in a good place to merely bolster their emergency funds and reserves a bit.. and that could be enough..

and, yeah, if you are not quite even close to that and even if your BTC holdings might ONLY be 3 months of your annual income, then it well could take a 10x increase in BTC prices, and then 3 months turns into 30 months, so those are the kinds of scenarios, even guys with modest BTC holdings should be taking into account in terms of what is possible in the next 6 to 18 months - even though maybe the odds are not exactly that high to end up getting a 10x from here so quickly.. but you never know with BTC.. In March 2020, we dipped down to $3,850 and then maybe we could say that we bounced back to $10k-ish by late in the year (2020), yet within the next 12 months we were 6x and 7x higher than those $10k prices... ..

And, surely some folks might not consider the kind of runs from 2017 to be possible or likely, but those 2 years resulted in more than a 78x price appreciation from the 2015 bottom to the 2017 top.. .. but then maybe we might say that they measuring point might NOT start until around January 2017 when we reached $1k, and so by the end of 2017, we had accomplished a 20x.. so the BIG numbers are possible and they should be considered in terms of where your BTC holdings might be and if you might need to consider some adjustments based on those kinds of possible levels of exuberance and outrageousness.. and sure it may be the case that you just keep accumulating and hold through it. and make tiny adjustments along the way and just let the BTC price do whatever it is going to do while you just continue to regularly stack sats.. whether the BTC price is high or low..

and I am not even opposed to that.. especially for both a guy that is still going through his first whole cycle and a guy who also might not have a high discretionary/disposable income, it may well be the best of strategies just to continue to pace yourself through the whole matter however it ends up playing out.. which surely guys who were new to bitcoin and went through either the 2017 price run or the 2021 price run, they would have still ended up fine by just continuing to buy the whole time.. . which was kind of the case for me, except I started at the top of the 2013 run, so I started while the price was going down rather than while it was going up.. so the dynamics are a bit different in terms of what might be reasonable and how to play it.. even though in the long run DCA does still end up working for both, especially for any persons with relatively low levels of disposable/discretionary income.


Trading does seem to be worse.. and yeah, if you are able to figure out some consistent system to focus on BTC accumulation, then you likely will be good.. .. .. even though like jossiel mentioned there can be quite a few psychological challenges to go through real BIG price swings, yet we cannot even really know how much of a price correction is going to happen or how long it is going to last until after it has happened, so there are a lot of guys who end up selling too much too soon and they are never really able to figure out when to buy back. when they likely would have been better to just keep buying regularly because at least that way they can see the number of their sats increasing, even though the value per sat might be fluctuating a lot along the way, too.


The meaning of aggressiveness does not have to do with the amount that you are putting in.. because even if you are ONLY putting in $10 per week, you might be being as aggressive as you are able to be.. so I am not really talking about amounts when I refer to aggressiveness.. but there are ways that you can be aggressive by just making sure that you have all your financial and mental matters in order, so then you are able to afford to be more aggressive than someone who is disorganized and is not paying attention to his cashflow, his emergency fund, his reserves and his float.. and so yeah, you might also make some mistakes because you might sometimes get too aggressive, but if you are planning through various aspects, then your mistakes are not likely going to be enough to put you out of the game.. the mistakes end up not being able to buy for a few weeks or having to use some of your emergency fund because you fucked up with your management of your reserves and/or your float. and things like that.. so part of this whole matter is staying in the game, since there are hostile governments and hostile financial institutions that would like to remove you from your coins and even discourage and/or dissuaded you from accumulating bitcoin... I get the sense that some of the matters related to fees in the last 6 months were attacks on the psychology and the finances of poor people, and so poor people have to figure out ways to be more organized and to put systems in place so that you can still accumulate bitcoin, even when there are forces working against you, and surely as I said before holding your own keys, but maybe you have to build up your wallet size on some exchange to get it up to $500 or $1k before you move it to a private wallet.. which also can cause additional risks that you have to figure out for yourself you level of wanting to deal with that or you might screw yourself if you end up having 400 transactions that are valued between $10 and $100 and when you should have taken measures to limit the number of UTXOs that you have that are so small like that.
 

It is not guaranteed but surely we have quite a bit of evidence in place that bitcoin is going to continue to have a lot more UPside movements, so this is a good place to be, yet you still have to figure out your position size and your balancing of you position size with real world concerns.. so that you will have enough fiat during times in which you need it.
 

 Yep.. we get arguments about whether 1% adoption has already happened or not, and there can be some distortions since there are a lot of rich people gobbling up the supply.. which also will deter poor people from doing their own gobbling up of coins... so there are so many normies who don't realize that they are going to need bitcoin, ... .while at the same time none of us knows the future exactly.. which again gets us back to figuring out our position size.


Many people will probably need to take more than a whole cycle and even 2-3 cycles or more.. to be able to really get to a point of accumulating enough BTC.. so you might end up being ahead of the game, even if you perceive that you were a bit of a slow starter.. but there are a lot of folks who consider that they are too late, but they end up not doing anything or they get distracted into shitcoins because they are searching for the next bitcoin or the quick 10x or quick 100x.. .. hahahahahaha .. I remember some of the trolls were even worse in 2017 when they were arguing that BTC was not going up fast enough and pumping their shitcoin bullshit. ..and yeah, there might have been some of them who were able to get in and out of their shitcoin, but just holding BTC worked pretty damned good for guys who bought and held through that whole period, even though guys will sometimes start to get depressed when the BTC price is down 50% and it keeps correcting... and so the end of the correction remains unclear.. but the  guys who kept buying through 2018, 2019 and 2020.. ended up looking like geniuses later down the road.. .. and so we cannot know how it will end up playing out this time.


No problem.. one of the best teachers is your own practices and your application and your coming back to help other guys. .. we are going to continue to get newbies, and even though you might be feeling like a newbie, at some point you are going to be having to teach the newbies who are coming here.. .. including figuring out ways to deal with the traders and the shitcoiners... who might not always be completely wrong.. but on this forum,  there are other threads for that, too... yet they are still going to be coming into threads like this and also into some of the other bitcoin threads and either pumping shitcoins or trying to get you to sell your coins earlier than is probably for your own good... and likely many of us will also question our own practices.. because even if we are continuing to build our sats, we sometimes will consider if we might need to make some adjustments to get some more sats.. or more bang for the buck, which is part of the dilemma presented in this thread, even though many guys have considered DCA to be the best, buying the dip (or even lump summing) sometimes will get us more sats.. it is just quite difficult figure out when the dip is going to be, how far it will go or how long it is going to last.


I made this prediction a bit spontaneously from numbers that came into my head (and wanting them to add up to 100%), and so I was also trying to ball park the numbers but also to frame the various possible price ranges in terms of both where we might be in 10 years (or what price range we might be in in 10 years).. based on where we are at right now.. and so if something were to change, I might have to change my ranges or my odds... so for example, if we were to shoot down to $20k or we shot up to $200k within the next 6 months, then I likely would have to reconsider matters.. and any of that kind of shooting around is quite likely, and it would probably be unlikely that the price would perform in such a gradual kind of way that my numbers would not end up changing along the way..

I frequently like to go by the 200-WMA, and so if that 200-WMA is kind of staying on track, then it gives decently good guidelines for where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going.. which I figure is represented in my entry-level fuck you status chart... which shows the historical and projected 200-WMA every 6 months.. and even this 6 month period, it is appearing that the upward trajectory is going to have to get upgraded from 16% to around 23%. which is going to end up changing the subsequent bottom (200WMA) prediction numbers and even my own ongoing consideration that my last updating of that chart in November 2023 was too conservative (so yeah, I am planning to update it every 6 months.. .even though maybe I should update it more often or even create another thread just for updating it more frequently.. especially since I refer to it so often.


I would imagine that its odds for going to zero in a longer timeline would be greater than it is for within the next 10 years, but who knows?  It could well be that bitcoin is with us forever, as amazing as even the idea of that seems to be and a lot of no coiners and precoiners cannot get their minds around the concept that bitcoin has a kind of existence that makes it stronger than gold.. . .(and in the ballpark of 1,000x more valuable than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years to get to that valuation).


My phrasing regarding the "stuck there" is mostly an attempt to say where we might be 10 years from now.. so "stuck there" might not have been a great descriptive choice... .. but maybe if I had just said, where is the BTC price going to be in 10 years and then assigned ranges, that might have been better, even though we know that the BTC price could go up down or whatever, and then where-ever we might end up in 10 years could be crazy, because there could be scenarios that bitcoin does something outrageous and moves through some pretty broad swaths of prices, even though there is a certain kind of Lindy effect that is going on too.. and also including that the more capital that comes in, then the more capital it takes to move the price.


Probably a bad way of phrasing where we might be in 10 years, and surely I agree that BTC is both designed to pump forever, but also there are likely to be a lot of battles between here and $5 million or so then maybe between $5 million and $100 million per coin might be price arenas in which it becomes a lot more difficult to move the price as much.. so yeah, bitcoin is almost inevitably going to be volatile at least until we get to $5million, which could happen in a cycle or two or three or maybe it takes longer to get there.. and there are going to be both battles and also ongoing and continuous gravitation of monetary value into BTC. .. which is why its addressable market is close to $2.1 quadrillion in future value and around $1 quadrillion in current value.. but there is likely going to be more monetary value in the future as well that is brought by things like bitcoin that we don't necessarily know, yet.. and so $2.1. quadrillion is $1 per satoshi.. but yeah it could take 50 to 200 years to get there..


You are nutso, and you are bound to be wrong.  Evenif you want to stick to those categories, you need to at least present all of the possibilities..

So maybe something like this would be more encapsulating of all possibilities from your perspective.. which again is nutso, as presented, even if one of those two possibilities might end up playing out..

Stablexcoin's prediction reframed into comprehensiveness

Below $500k - 1% or less

Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 69%

High end: $1M - $2M - 29%

Greater than $2 million - 1% or less

You can tweak these numbers  if you like.. but at least the categories are not logically fallacious if you at least account for all of the possibilities, which your earlier example did not and your earlier example likely assigned too high of values to your  two price range possibilities, even though surely you are free to believe whatever you like, even if you are living in a fantasy with your failure/refusal to acknowledge all possibilities.  


Whenever I make future predictions, I try to frame them in terms of either today's dollars or a reasable ongoing dollar debasement, even though we know that the dollar is not going to debase in a reasonable way..  .. sure we could make our predictions in terms of some other asset like gold or oil or big macs or something like that or even measuring from Hookers, lambos, blow and yachts, but at this time, we are still measuring these kinds of matters in terms of dollars, which the dollars ongoing debasement is perverting values a lot since it is likely going to enter into hyperinflation at some point, so we will end up having to measure in other ways when that ends up happening.. which may or may not end up happening soon within 1-30 years.. I have no clue about how long the dollar/fiat/debt-laden ponzi scheme can keep from totally crashing..


Yep.. Negotiation seems to be ongoingly blind and ongoingly fighting the idea of investing for the long term.. so he is going to have to have fun staying poor... because he is likely never going to get ahead by saving in fiat and failing/refusing to build a BTC stash (even if it is a small one), and surely there are going to be a lot of people coming to bitcoin quite late and wishing that they could have stacked some sats for less than $100k per BTC... and there are going to be satoshi millionaires and they are going to be quite proud of themselves, when right now we can get become a satoshi millionaire for right around $700.. what a deal!!!  that some of us do not recognize and/or appreciate.

I remember less than a year ago, I helped my sister to become a satoshi multimillionaire and it was on several occasions that added up; to a few hundred dollars for sharing various costs and I paid her in BTC. and since then, she has been stacking her own sats... so I am not sure how many she has, but they surely have become more expensive over the last year to year and a half.

That is a potentially interesting column - of course, we already likely know that Bitstamp does not have a lot of trade volume, but I think that part of the reason that it is used as a reference point so much on the forum has to do with some confidence that the BTC/USD trade volume is not being manipulated as much as some of the other potential  BTC/USD  trade volume sources.

I am not concerned if you do anything additional with that number, even though it does seem to make more sense than the earlier number of BTC alone as I already mentioned.

And at least now we have dates in 2024 in that trade volume column.. and notice that we do not have too many dates in late 2021 in there. Many of the high trade volumes dates were in early 2021 rather than in late 2021.. That's interesting.

What are you up to?

All of my sets today have been 40 or 45.., and I suspect that I might be able to do 50 or 55, but only if I were to speed up.. .. but I am not really feeling like I can do anymore... so getting better seems to be a slow process..... but my number of sets per day continues to be 5 so I am still getting pretty good quantity of pushups for the whole day... ... but if that is my ONLY major exercise for the whole day.. then maybe there might be some need to add some other stuff here and there.. besides some of the stretching and just normal other activities that have some exercise but nothing major...


That might teach us to find some kind of a groove.. even though you had said that you were doing the slower pushups.. so yeah they are likely more difficult than the ones that I am doing... . which still are right around 1 second per pushup.. and I am frequently tempted to go faster so that I can do more.. and no matter what they hurt since I end up pretty much pushing myself to failure.. and if I slow down then I end up doing fewer.. so I am thinking that a couple of weeks of my measuring my pushup speed will help to inform me whether I might want to make adjustments to either the speed or the quantity or just keep going more or less with what I am doing.

This is a good point.

A person might want to be as aggressive as he can be within his own means to acquire as many bitcoin as he is able to do, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as he does not cause something like the wealth (or the earlier BTC adoption) of someone else to cloud his own visions regarding some of his own limits.

There is no problem with some healthy levels of competition, since it is quite likely that many of us engage in a certain level of competition, yet there are also some needs for measuring our own levels of aggressiveness in reasonable kinds of ways in order that we do not end up overdoing it or even contributing to our own levels of becoming too emotional in the ways that we are investing and/or protecting ourselves..  

Let's say for example, there are two guys of very similar economic status and maybe in their early 30s, and maybe they earn around $40k per year and they are able to save and/or invest around $4k (10%) to $10k (25%) per year - depending on how aggressive they are or how much they had been building up their investment portfolios.. so if each of them had been investing and/saving for 10 years, there could be quite a bit of variance in both the size of their investment portfolio and also what is contained in their investment portfolio, and after 10 years investing,

Guy1-  Earlier bitcoin investor with 10% investment -  might have around $40k invested - but he discovered bitcoin 7 years ago.. so he has around $22k invested into traditional investments  like stocks ($8k in his first 2 years and then $14k in his last 7 years).. and around $18k invested into bitcoin at $50 per week that resulted in about 2 BTC.  If we assume around a 50% increase in the value of his traditional investment, his total investment portfolio is worth about $161k ($21k stocks + $140k BTC)

Guy2- Later Bitcoin investor with 25% invested -  might have $100k invested but only invested into traditional investments of stocks, and just discovered BTC... so the total value of his investment portfolio might be around $150k.. so this guy surely could catch up to the earlier guy by starting to invest aggressively into bitcoin at around $200 per week (or even lump sump moving some of his earlier investment into BTC), yet it does not seem as practical to lump sum invest with all of it, so he has to find some  kind of a balance and then start to pursue bitcoin with $200 per week and he will likely end up passing up the guy who is ONLY investing 10% of his income.. and perhaps only 5% into bitcoin.

On the other hand, if there were a third guy (guy3) with the same demographics as the other two and a 15% per year investment of his salary which would be $6k per year and a total of $60k invested over 10 years -  but who had taken both a more aggressive bitcoin stance and a more aggressive overall investment stance than the 10% guy but not as aggressive as the 25% guy, yet who had also discovered bitcoin around 7 years ago and who had been investing into bitcoin for the last 7 years at $100 per week, and who continues to invest at $100 per week.. so his total portfolio has $23,500 invested into stocks and then $36,500 invested into bitcoin with 4 BTC accumulated  So his total portfolio would be $315k ($35k stocks and $280k BTC)

The second guy who is investing 25% per year for the past 10 years is the most aggressive of the three investors, yet his total portfolio has performed the worst over the past 10 years, and since in this scenario, he had just discovered bitcoin, he surely could catch up and pass the first guy in a fairly short period of time, yet if those two guys were to maintain their same pace, it could take him 15-20 years to catch up to the third guy since the third guys in not overly aggressive, but he is maintaining a pretty good pace of $100 per week, and he might never catch up to the third guy unless he increases his income and/or cuts his expensive, but he might not have as much room to work with since he is already aggressively investing 25% of his income at $200 per week-ish, so it is not always easy to either increase your income or decrease your expenses in order to be able to invest more, so in some sense, the second guy just has to continue to invest at his own pace and there may be some points in which he ends up catching up to the third guy. but surely no guarantees and probably no reason to really overly stress out about.


I think that many of us are pushing the idea that every time that a long term investor adds new capital to his investment, then that new capital should be considered in terms of having a 4-10 year or longer timeline before it is going to be needed (or wanted), so surely if a guy is investing for 4-10 years or longer, by the time he gets into his 6th year of investing, he is going to have some of his earlier investments that have been brewing (or sitting for 6 years or so) and then his later investment amounts would have not had as much time to brew  (or to compound or to grow in value).. ... of course, the longer that he is investing the more options that begin to develop regarding how he might change the way that he builds and/or maintains his investment, so it would not really start to make sense to both buy and sell at the same time, but if he has enough time building, he might get to a point in which he thinks that he is able to somewhat attempt to play the trends.. but not necessarily structuring any sales in a way that he expects to be able to buy back.. so if he does not quite have enough (or he mis-measures how much he has versus how much he thinks he has), then he could end up running into a situation in which he sold too much too soon and/or he failed to continue to maintain enough focus on ongoing BTC accumulation.


Surely there is no certainty.. yet we might need to consider what we believe to be possibilities.

No one responded to my post from a few days ago in this very same thread when I attempted to assign some probabilities to where I speculated that the BTC prices might be 10 years from now... It was how I was thinking about the topic at the time of the posting, and sure the probabilities might change with the passage of time (and the happening of events), too.

 

We do not have to imagine, even though we could describe a certain kind of hypothetical of a guy who might have invested $100 per week for the past 5 years, and consider that their older bitcoin are likely more in profits than the more recent bitcoin, even though right now when BTC is bouncing around within 5% of the ATH territory, it is pretty much every single person is going to be in profits, and the longer they have been accumulating, the more profits that they would have put themselves in.. so long as they had not screwed around with trading and/or leverage (which may or may not have helped themselves in comparison to a more strict ongoing, consistent and persistent DCA strategy.

$100 per week of BTC accumulation over the past 5 years would have had resulted in $26,100 invested and 1.5578 BTC accumulated (currently worth about $109k - about 4.2x returns), and maybe not enough to feel comfortable to be at entry level fuck you status, but surely enough to cause a person to feel pretty good about his progress and the options that the BTC stash is providing.

Another example would be a guy who might have started investing 10 years ago at the same amount of $100 per week.  He would have had invested $52k into BTC and he would have accumulated nearly 44.4 BTC (which currently would be worth about $3.1 million - about 60x returns).. so there can can be quite a bit of value that comes from allowing additional time to pass - even though it seems quite unlikely that BTC is going to be returning such great returns...

None of us should be complaining even if BTC were to at least keep up with inflation (the debasement of the dollar and other fiats), and any kind of extra return would be a bonus... yet surely we are going to be more inspired to aggressively invest into bitcoin when we consider that it has good chances of beating rather than merely matching the performance of other possible places to put our value to save/invest.


Edit After I had written my whole response, @jossiel, I come to realize that I had misunderstood your points... so I went back through my response to attempt to fix it a bit.. .. but when I saw that it still might contain some of my earlier misunderstanding.. I decided to change my response.

I agree that a guy might believe that he has everything figured out, and then he ends up getting frustrated because he ends up buying at top.. and he had not really adequately planned for the correction, even though he thought that he was sufficiently prepared.

part of the trick is to get out of the trader mindset and get into the investor mindset.. which means to prepare yourself to be holding your investment into BTC for 4-10 years or longer no matter what the price does.. .. so if you are overly worried about the price, in regards to whether you are in profits or in the negative, then you likely have not prepared either the correct mindset of the correct approach that will prepare yourself to deal with the likely inevitable volatility of BTC prices... so preparing financially is figuring out position size but also having your financial matters in order that includes your maintaining emergency funds, reserves and a float.. emergency fund should be at least 3 months, but if you have complicated things going on in your life that either potentially involves expenses that could come up or fluctuations and/or drying up of your cashflow, then you need emergency funds that cover longer periods of time.

Also if you invest into bitcoin for 1-3 years and then the price goes shooting up and you cannot control your emotions because you see how much it had become worth and you just cannot resist but to tap into it, then likely you have to figure out some way to deal with that.. since what is it that you are wanting to do with the money?  Are you wanting to consume? or you want to diversify into other investments? or what is it that causes you to get worked up about it?  It could be that even though you are still in your BTC accumulation stage that you might have to take some off the table and to invest into other things because you cannot handle how much it had become, even though you should also realize that the amount of BTC that you might never be able to get back the amount of BTC that you end up shaving off.. so that should be factored into your consideration regarding how much BTC you feel that you need to shave off, and you should be attempting to do these things without emotion.. so that you had somewhat preplanned them rather than acting out too rashly merely based on sudden changes in the BTC price.


I agree it is good to attempt to think through the various scenarios and try to be prepared, even for extreme scenarios.

You don't like the idea of planning?  

Yes it can be difficult to plan for everything, yet we can set out some scenarios so that we are somewhat prepared to mostly know what we are going to do, and so if we end up doing something, we are already in the ballpark of what we had already planned, even if we might not have had planned the specific situation that ends up playing out.  We are likely not going to be able to completely know how certain matters will play out, but we should have a certain level of preparation for a variety of scenarios and also for some scenarios that go beyond our expectations.


It is true that if the BTC price goes shooting up, guys end up not really being as prepared as they thought that they were.

That is not true.  

You could plan that you are not selling any BTC if the price goes anywhere between $80k and $180k in the next 1 to 9 months.. and then maybe you have some plans that if it goes faster than that, then you might end up selling some.. even though you already might know that you are in accumulation phase and if they BTC price keeps going up then you have to make sure that you do not sell too much too soon.. so there are risks for any guys who are selling some of their BTC and they already know that they do not have enough BTC.


That is getting back to the idea of having your finances otherwise in order.. which is also having certain amounts of funds..

You may well be in another position jossiel than a member who is brand new to investing into bitcoin.. especially since you have been registered on the forum for more 8 years and 3 days.. happy anniversary.. so yeah if you been in bitcoin longer than you might have more luxuries in terms of how many BTC you have already accumulated.

Let's say for example that a guy has only been into bitcoin for a year and a half (looking at I_Anime), his income is about $36k per year, $3k per month, and he is investing about 15% into bitcoin which is $100 per week which is $5,200 per year and $7,800 for 18 months), he had continued to maintain a 3 month emergency fund and also 3 months of reserve funds, so if he had only been investing for 18 months, his investment into bitcoin would be merely around 0.282 BTC - which currently is close to $20k in value and slightly more than 6 months of his income (if we are looking at BTC spot price) .. so he should feel pretty good about all of that, and he has a steady income and is investing around 15% of his income into BTC, but then if the BTC price were to double to $140k, then all of a sudden his BTC holdings are more than 1 year of income.. and so if BTC prices double again to $380k, then he would have 2-3 years of income in his BTC holdings.. so then he might start to think that his investment is getting ahead of his levels of preparations, and he might have to take some BTC off the table in order to either bolster his emergency or reserve funds, or perhaps he starts to feel some needs to have some of his value in other assets/investments.. and so there is nothing wrong with having some of those kinds of considerations in advance and even plans to take some off of the table, even if the guy might have concluded that he does not have enough BTC.

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

In regards to my earlier description of the MSTR shorters, surely I don't claim to be any kind of expert in regards to what they are doing or even trading in the kinds of ways that they are doing, since those who place shorts (and/or profitable from shorting need to have a certain skill and/or luck and sometimes they will also employ informational warfare to get the market to agree with their short - which may or may not end up working out - since there could end up being a Streisand effect), and so yeah I would not be wanting to make those kinds of plays, but that is part of the reason there are differing opinions in the market including differing risk tolerances and differing ways to achieve success (or die trying to reach success).

I recognize that my own earlier characterization of what the MSTR shorters are doing was not very accurate since they are simultaneously shorting MSTR and longing BTC at the same time, so they are seeming to want to specifically attempt to arbitrage (or target) what they perceive to be the current MSTR premium to suggest that the current MSTR premium is way above and beyond the value of the BTC that MSTR holds and therefore the premium of the value of the MSTR shares is so far out of wack that it has to come back down closer to a more reasonable level.. and so it surely could be possible that the MSTR shorters could play the wave sufficiently well in order to actually profit from the current MSTR premium coming back down in line - instead of their getting reckt as I suggested to be a possibility, yet if they set their short of MSTR and their long of BTC correctly then it may well become harder for them to get completely reckt.. so yeah, earlier I had mischaracterized the way that they were shorting as if they were betting against both MSTR and also betting against BTC when they seem to be merely trying to ONLY be betting on the seeming premium coming down to what they believe should be more reasonable levels... which may or may not end up working out for them, depending upon how greedy they are before taking their profits (and close their short).. and also if the market ends up agreeing with them that the MSTR premium is too much at this particular time.

Edit:  Wow fillippone.. we posted at the exact same time... except yours was entered into the threadchain first.. so there is some kind of a micro-second measurement going on in these here parts.

hahahaha

I don't have anything against you.

I think that you might well be a fine chap, and from time to time, I even agree with some points that you make in various topics... .. .

It is just that it seem that you might not understand dee cornz very well, which contributes to my feeling some needs to respond to some of the points that you make - which are meant to be substantive disagreements that I generally tend to back up with either argument and/or facts, even though you have been registered on this forum for 9 years and 7 days..  Happy belated anniversary..

What you are saying is strange.. and even somewhat incoherent..

Yet one point that I would like to make is that even if you believe that a lot of people know what bitcoin is because they heard it's name, it is barely in its earliest stages of actual adoption, even though some rich people are front-loading their stacking and/or hoarding of it... so yeah, the front loading is going to cause the price to go up, yet mainstream will still have to come into it, sooner or later, and the BTC price is not going to necessarily correct down in order to accommodate their wishes to buy cheaper corn.

So good luck with any of those frameworks that consider bitcoin to either be a mature asset or to cap its growth at anything less than 20x to 50x before it might start to dampen in some of it volatility and violence during this period of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind that you seem to be downplaying, even if there might be periods in which you feel that you are right because of correlation to stocks or short period ups and downs along the way, while you are continuing to miss some of the BIGGER picture ideas..around the value proposition of my lil precious.


You don't have to worry about if you are right or you are wrong, since you are likely NOT selling anyhow.. or you are not trying to time the top, so who cares.  Sure, you might shave some off along the way, in the even that you believe that you have enough or more than enough.. but that still does not mean that you have to be correct about scenarios that might happen, but do not end up playing out..

And surely ultra bullish (at $800k plus) is likely more than 3.2x your original number and at least 2x your amended number..  

so then what problem should you have describing ultra bullish that does not end up happening.. part of the reason that it is "ultra bullish" is that it has lower odds of happening, and yeah, base case scenarios are in the ball park of $240k to $540k.. .. but even base case scenarios are not guaranteed to happen, so maybe they will or maybe they won't yet part of the reason that we might go through some of these scenarios is to help us to prepare financially and psychologically for both the more likely and the less likely scenario and maybe in your finances, you are even more conservative.. but yeah it would kind of suck for you to spend 4-6-ish years or maybe even more stacking up BTC and then blowing your whole wadd at $258k, and then if the BTC price continues to go up and you have little to no corns.. and at the same time, it may not end up correcting back down to either your sell price or to a price that you consider that it is "supposed to" correct down to in order that you would feel comfortable buying back to the extent that you are even psychologically fit by the time we get to that point.


Nope.. institutions have not started buying BTC yet... it takes a while to get institutions into the picture.. they are way less mobile than retail, even though the profile of retail can be quite varied in terms of kind and size of investor.. maybe consider it to be a kind of retail demand that was not captured by the buying BTC directly market.. a kind of retail that loves the ETF wrapper, but detests the idea of directly holding BTC or buying BTC through exchanges that may or may not be as trustworthy as their broker.


Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..

Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.

I am glad that you got yourself covered either way.

 


It is also funny that you have been into bitcoin (or at least a member of this forum) for so long, and you still be struggling with understanding some of bitcoin basics.

But, hey whatever, you do you.  We all have our rights to our opinions, and hopefully you do not end up selling too much too soon in such process of characterizing bitcoin as merely a 2x from  current prices.


Surely I appreciate $120k to $180k as the range for an intermediate stop that is likely pending and/or imminent in the coming 1 to 9 months.. and surely having good chances of playing out this calendar year..

And likely another likelihood is that BTC prices are likely going to be higher in 2025 (at least the top price, maybe not the average) than they get to in 2024... So yeah, who needs to get further into specifics.. I surely don't need to because I hardly even claim to know specifics, and surely I wil be more than willing to change my tunes if some kind of dynamics kicks in that breaks some of the underlying presumptions in regards to BTC's demand drying up.. .. no reason to consider such scenario, even though surely there are are some non-zero possibilities that some kind of drying up demand could end up laying out.. maybe less than 10% odds during 2024/2025, which is part of the reason to attempt to prepare for either price direction, even though many of us likely realize directionally, it does not hurt to remained prepared for up, don't sell too much too soon and don't fail to continue to buy if you don't have enough BTC (especially low coiners and no coiners, sometimes referred to as precoiners)


I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... .. and then maybe part of the frustrations that sometimes come .. which then if you have some sales in order to cover tax bills, then the sales from this year end up coming up for next year's taxes.... so an almost never ending loop... and sometimes could inspire ways to figure out how to better defer and/or offset such taxes with expenses or some other means that might be practically applicable..


Yeah, but you need your 20 BTC to get up to $10 million each, no?  how many cycles are we going to need to wait for that?  maybe the next cycle? or the one after that?

Oh gawd...    You seem to want to latch onto almost anything in order to argue your various interpretations of either potential bad actor status to Saylor and/or MSTR, or to figure out some kind of way in which this whole thing is going to blow up on him...

And your various theories are not even that great and seem to be somewhat selective spins rather than being in the ballpark of objective.

You seem to ignore or downplay the fact that Saylor already announced that he would be selling shares  (exercising options that were due to expire) within this quarter and perhaps dragging out longer, and you seem to not even understand some of the outrageously fortunate circumstances that Saylor is in since his share price is going up at outrageous rates and he can both use that fact to leverage and to buy more BTC and he can simultaneously sell shares that he did not even have (except that they were options to be able to have them) while buying BTC for his personal stash through those proceeds.

Any of those entities shorting may well end up getting reckt as fuck since they are trying to act as if the leverage on BTC is a bad play when BTC remains in its current location of noman's land (which is the price range that is within about 20% of the previous ATH, which is around $55k to $82k), while at the same time opening new kinds of buyers and buy channels that are still in their earliest stages of ongoingly putting UPpity price pressures on BTC.. so if you consider that either BTC or MSTR is top-ish in these circumstances, then you seem to be living in a dream.. and yeah, Saylor is going to attract a lot of haters. and no coiners/low coiners, bitcoin naysayers blah blah blah who are wanting (wishing) to see his failure (and bitcoin's) failure, but they (just like you) are going to have to keep on crying harder...

Yeah, sure anything can happen.. but it just seems that facts and UPpity BTC market dynamics are way the fuck against betting against either BTC and/or MSTR and/or the strategy that Saylor is employing.. and yeah, maybe charges could be trumped up since traditional finance folks and governments are in a desperate as fuck state of affairs regarding their own stake in several aspects of the perilous dollar/fiat debt system that seems to be crashing in a lot of places.. while ongoing rescuing attempts are made, that include ongoing lying to people.. which yeah, people (including you) may well believe some of the misinformation that's being fed and/or failing/refusing to recognize the power of the cornz and that Saylor/MSTR is working within acceptable loopholes in the system.. and if anyone is going to go after him, they are likely going to have to jump through a bunch of baloney loopholes, just like you seem to be cheering on.. with your ongoing anticipation of some kind of desire to say "I told you so" .. which instead you should be attempting to be more humble in regards to really attempting to figure out what is really going on with the traditional debt laden financial system and the way that MSTR, Saylor and BTC's role in that is being played... including that the spot ETF approvals and the various actual marketing of BTC by BIG ASS financial players..


You seem to be going along with various narratives too much tiCeR.. Saylor is transparent, overly transparent and even a BIG mouth about a lot of what he is doing, and yeah, maybe it will end up backfiring for him, even though he is working within the system and seems to have a lot of great counsel and even his own creativity contributing to his and MSTR's approach to this.


Even though The Sceptical Chymist mentioned that knowing about shorters or the potential for shorters to potentially be "insider information," that sounds like a looney as fuck theory.  There may well be a need to look up the meaning of insider information that pertains to operations within the company rather than what the market may or may not be potentially going to be doing.


That is part of the problem, because shorts will especially work if there is some flaws in the fundamental value, and so surely shorting MSTR has a lot of parallels to shorting BTC, which seems like nearly a retarded move. .and good luck to the shorters, they are most likely going to need luck in order to be successful.. depending on how far they are trying to go with it..

Surely there could be some short term shorting that might end up being successful to get in and out of the trade, but yeah, these matters can surely end up blowing up on even purportedly smart shorters who might not completely realize the dynamite that they are playing with.. .. all fun and games until someone's eyes get poked out.


Even though we cannot really know who is who, OgNasty ends up being correct in terms of his framing that there are a large number of folks who are choosing to buy and/or to continue to hold MSTR shares rather than BTC, and yeah it adds extra risk in terms of considering whether MSTR will continue to outperform purely holding BTC if we are merely talking about playing the price exposure to BTC, yet at the same time, there are some players who may well be way more ready, willing and able to buy something like a share rather than buying BTC directly.. and so even if they are not exactly willing and/or capable of holding BTC directly, it would still not be incorrect for OgNasty to characterize them as folks who are choosing to hold MSTR over BTC and also to characterize Saylor as someone who is selling MSTR and buying BTC with it.... and so even if OgNasty might be wanting to point out hypocrisy and contradictory behaviors, the situation does not seem to be even close to as contradictory as he seems to be describing it to be, especially since Saylor is already way overly exposed to MSTR shares and his selling of options is not really materially or significantly diluting Saylor's control over the company, and the company is even better off with Saylor buying so many fucking BTC, whether it is for his personal stash or the other ways that he is employing MSTR's various leveraging vehicles to accomplish similar kinds of ongoing buying of BTC.


And of course it is a good play off of the lyrics or the famous "The Gambler" song by Kenny Rogers, too.


Of course it is true that Saylor is selling MSTR shares and he is not buying them and he claims to be largely buying personal BTC with the MSTR shares that he is selling... even though we cannot completely verify that he is actually buying personal BTC.. but there is no real reason to doubt him, either even though it is likely optional regarding what he actually spends the money on once he sells the MSTR shares.. whether that is actually BTC or hookers, lambos and blow.. and perhaps additional yachts .. but I speculate that there might be some feelings of diminishing returns in terms of how many hookers, lambo, blow or yachts a 59 year old single guy is going to want to have.


Of course, he is allowed to.  You need to come up with some pretty good legal theory or just make shit up if you are wanting to argue that he is not allowed to do what he is doing, which surely there are a lot of MSTR/Saylor/BTC haters who are jumping through such hoops to engage in their own fantasies about what is permissible or not


Where do you get those speculations regarding potentiality?  Surely, I am not going to fuck around with buying MSTR, but the mere fact that MSTR's main business seems to be being dwarft by BTC purchases and even that some folks (including in these here parts) had already speculated in late 2023-ish to sell MSTR and buy GBTC and even had decently good reasons to execute that trade, yet that surely would not have had been a great trade, even though GBTC's discount window did end up getting closed into being quite close to the underlying NAV.


There might not be a reason for a retail investor, except for wanting to play a bit of potential leverage, which seems not very necessary, even though there surely are still a lot of retail who are buying MSTR rather than BTC (and maybe many of them hold both).. . and yeah, there are some institutions and other kinds of buyers of MSTR who are not able to hold BTC directly with the kind of account that they are dealing with, whether it is some kind of a retirement account or other restrictions and/or difficulties to hold BTC directly, and some of them might even consider MSTR to serve as an even more efficient and forward-looking ETF than the actual ETFs because of the kinds of leveraging that Saylor does and the fact that Saylor seems to be such a BTC lunatic... some of the investors into MSTR are going to love that angle of Saylor and how he is deploying MSTR's capital in such an aggressive way.

ONLY you.


Yesterday, I posted on the topic of Sam and the strangeness of the whole situation in another thread, which I think bears reposting here.



For sure, perceptions of cheapness may also depend upon whether you have any BTC at all and/or if you might be a low coiner, and so sure, guys who have been accumulating BTC for a while have a certain amount of luxury to sit back and suggest that BTC is no longer cheap, yet guys who are either just coming to BTC or maybe they had been less aggressive than they should have been or could have been at earlier dates, then they might be feeling that they need to catch up and they cannot turn back the clock, so they are somewhat forced into a perception of relative "cheapness."

Many of us likely realize that it can take a whole fucking long time to build up an investment portfolio, even if we might consider ourselves to be attempting to reach an appropriate amount of aggressiveness balancing in regards to our BTC accumulation, but then maybe later down the road, we end up  realizing that we were way too whimpy in our BTC accumulation approach, and it is not like we can go back in time, so we therefore have to reframe our perceptions of BTC as cheap even though it is currently breaking through previous ATHs and doing such breaking throughs in a way that seems to be even more bullish than a lot of folks had expected.. but then in retrospect, we can also figure out various legitimate reason for why the seemingly earlier than expected break out (and touching upon new ATHs and price exploration) is happening right now.

Some folks also become enlightened at a later date, and sure maybe such enlightenment is not going to happen with gold bugs like Peter Schiff or some other seemingly smart people who we might consider should come to recognize and appreciate the bullish case for bitcoin, yet some of those guys might end up being forced to come around or otherwise have fun staying poor or otherwise just end up being too much on the losing side of the greatest wealth transfer known to man.. which surely may cause some of them to consider to wrongly continue to believe that they are too late, rather than recognizing and appreciating the value of getting into bitcoin now (even though they feel late) rather than continuing to wait for price corrections that may well end up not happening.

Ego and pride problems too.. and sometimes it is better to just bite the bullet and get the fuck started rather than staying a stubborn person who continues to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately pee pare his lil selfie for UPpity.


I don't know it if it is the same.. Surely some of us got lucky to be in the right spot (and the right mental framework) at the right time, so a certain level of comfort can later come from earlier employments of front-loading and/or aggressiveness, so some of that could be a bit of luck, including even just having some disposable income to be able to put into it.. which surely can be a challenge for a lot of folks, and I think that there are plenty of recent studies that show that even folks with decently large sizes of disposable income, around half of them do not have shit when it comes to savings and/or investments, and maybe they cannot be completely to blame for such lack of preparedness... so sometimes there can be a certain amount of luck that comes from ending up being a person who both figures out that some level of savings and/or investment is a good thing to work towards and then on the other part they also figure out that bitcoin is a good place to put some of that investment, even if they might feel skeptical about bitcoin, so then it can be understandable that sometimes investors/savers (that have gotten over the first hump of actually saving/investing) will shy away from some kinds of investments that they don't consider to be sufficiently safe places to put even a small amount of their investment/savings allocation (which yeah it could take some looking into the bitcoin matter before starting to build a sufficient amount of confidence to invest in it).


Sure we are individuals, yet there are a lot of schools of thought that try to explain human behavior, even if they might be claiming to do other things... maybe even the bitcoin school of hard knocks attempts to explain human behavior by the incentives that are structured at various points within it.. and the balances that had been struck (and perhaps amended from time to time) through its code.


Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...

yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.

Your repetition of such bearish numbers is causing me depression.




#justsaying


I suspect that you had meant to say "pee pared?"


I will give my opinion, though I am not exactly attached to any of it.. so if a guy gives some better name or explanation, then that would be fine since any of those names seem o.k...

So whatever the name, there could be an explanation that start time for the recap is 01:00 UTC, and end time is 00:00 UTC.. Just to make it clear.. regarding the start and end time... and even though based on nomenclature, it would seem logical that start time should be 00:00 rather than 01:00.. yet I can see that reasonably, you consider 00:00 to be like 24:00 rather than 00:00.. which is a reasonable interpretation.. 

So yeah the timeline can take a really long time, and three full cycles is not unrealistic, if we consider that you are accumulating BTC the whole times and you may have started out without a lot of resources, and perhaps your discretionary income is not very high... so it may well take way more than 3 cycles, since in traditional investing it can take 30-40 years to really make progress, and if you are able to cut that in half to be able to make a lot of progress in 15-20 years, then you are likely way ahead of where you would have had been with a strategy that did not include bitcoin.

I am not sure what you mean by bitcoin defi, except if you are suggesting that guys need to be careful about any of that stuff, then I will agree with you.  There are needs for normies to be striving for simple and straight - forward strategies to accumulate bitcoin without any bells and whistles and from time to time to move their accumulation levels to private wallets that they maintain in a secure way... if there comes some time that guys might want to fuck around (trade or play with various yield and/or leveraged products), then if they could at least limit their exposure to such likely gambling behaviors to 10% of their bitcoin holdings, then at least they will be attempting to satisfy their curiosities within some moderation that is less likely to cause them to be recking their lil selfies.


If you believe that a smart person should spend 10 to 20 years investing in bitcoin and then sell it off in order to get into fiat, then you must either be retarded and/or you are failing to recognize and/or appreciate the long term HODL value of bitcoin - especially once you have spent enough time accumulating it and becoming empowered by the strength of its value storing/appreciating capabilities - even if there might continue to be decently large amounts of BTC price volatility, anyone who believes that s/he is planning to get out of bitcoin is likely not even investing into bitcoin, and is failing/refusing to actually understand bitcoins value proposition and/or the likely ongoing strength of its investment thesis.


Again.. you can do whatever the fuck you like, but you don't really seem to understand bitcoin very well if you think that it would be prudent, smart and/or practical to plan to sell large amounts of your BTC whether it is for consumption purposes or for investing into other kinds of assets/currencies.

Of course, there are ways to maintain and to manage your BTC holdings that could involve some selling, but planning to sell large amounts of it seem to be failing/refusing to appreciate what bitcoin is.


There is nothing wrong with starting a business, but there still might not be good reasons to sell large portions of your BTC in order to accomplish such.. .. but hey, yeah to each his own.. .. You are free to employ your seemingly short-sighted plan to potentially go from better to worse all that you like.  None of us can necessarily persuade you that you might be employing your capital badly if you consider selling all your BTC for such a purpose to be a wise employment of capital.

By the way, don't get me wrong..  There surely can be a large number of needs that normies have to invest into themselves, their skills and/or their education in order that they can move up the income ladder and also to increase their earnings whether that is from having their own business or working for someone else who is willing to pay more when you have gained and attained certain skills, education and experiences.


There is some truth in what you are saying, even though I still get the sense that you are a bit naive in terms of how you plan to deploy any advantages that you may well end up getting by having your BTC in profits, yet in one sense, you are surely correct that a guy who is more aggressive in his accumulation of BTC may well end up in a way better place than a person who is more conservative and even some guys might be accumulating bitcoin with very little commitment.. so in some sense the more aggressive that you can be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, including potentially having decently large portions of your income going into bitcoin and also cutting down on your expenses a lot in order to accomplish such aggressive levels of BTC investment, then you may well end up having much better performance and being able to cut down the number of cycles that you would need to be in bitcoin in order to achieve similar or better results than a guy who is way more whimpy and reserved in his bitcoin investment..

so yeah think about a guy who might be able to invest more than 25% of his income into BTC as compared with a guy who is ONLY investing around 1% of his income into BTC. .and the guys might also be in comparable income levels but the guy investing more than 25% would have decent chances of having 25x greater profits as compared to the whimpier guy (assuming that the whimpier guy is not investing into other things that might off-set the results..

Of course some balance may well be needed in life too.. so each person has to figure out various kinds of balances in regards to his health or building family and relations, so sometimes, a guy could damage himself if he is being overly aggressive in his investment into BTC if he otherwise sacrifices some areas of his life and/or well-being that should be maintained and/or built.. which sometimes also costs money to accomplish those other balancing things.

Anyhow and in any event, a guy still may well end up achieving a lot of value and price appreciation in his BTC and wealth, and so then he has more options to carry out other goals.. but that still may well need to be balanced in terms of how much BTC to cash out of or even varying ways to adjust the BTC holding strategy based on potential desires to diversify out into other investments and/or consumption after achieving greater wealth because of earlier aggressiveness in his BTC investment and approach to BTC accumulation.


You may be correct in your various points and/or your conclusions FinePoine0.. but I would be careful in terms of expressing these kinds of matters in terms of such black and whiteness, especially since it is surely possible to lose money in bitcoin, including that you could lose up to 100% of your bitcoin investment.


We are not talking about trading in this thread.. or even selling.. so you sound like a trader rather than being an investor.. which seems to not be what we are talking about in this thread.


That article is not bad in order to flesh out what is DCA and why and how to employ DCA - however, it seems to a bit incomplete in terms of getting into some of the nitty-gritty in regards to why weekly DCA might be preferred, but also reasons why a person might choose to alter the time period and choose a different time period.

It seems to me, that it would be good to establish weekly as a kind of default - best practices when it comes to bitcoin DCA investing, especially for the newbie.. .. yet of course, even a newbie may well need to figure out some other kind of interval in the event that his cashflow situation might be somewhat irregular and also if he is trying to figure out various aspects of his financial situation related to emergency funds, reserves and float.. and surely the idea of "financial situation" addresses some of this, but it is way too vague in order to really give us some ideas regarding how a guy realistically should be figuring out how to delve into either initially establishing his BTC position and/or getting into some kind of a 6 month plan that might be adjusted after the first 6 months or perhaps extended another 6 months if it seems to be working well in terms of balancing his getting to some kind of initial BTC stake and then continuing to work on BTC accumulation goals... that might be more difficult to put in place in the beginning but may well become smoother after the guy had spent a year or two investing, whether weekly or some other suitable interval between BTC purchases.


Why do you feel some kind of a need to try to be fair and balanced in terms of talking about buying and selling, when we are not talking about selling in this thread.. ..

The emphasis is in this thread is to figure out and to compare and contrast ways to accumulate BTC.. and selling is not part of the more basic BTC accumulating strategies... so fuck selling in terms of describing it as a basic strategy - absent if you have already reached your accumulation goals and have already overly accumulated BTC and have actually gotten past your buying and accumulation stage of your BTC journey, which is the topic and emphasis of this thread.


Yeah, but if you are new to bitcoin, then anytime is good to buy. .and so it might take a whole cycle before a BTC accumulator might start to get into extra strategizing around something like the 200WMA.. yet sure, sometimes, we might come to bitcoin and actually already see that BTC prices are at, near or below the 200-WMA and we might be able to recognize some extra motivation to become more aggressive in our BTC accumulation strategy than what we otherwise would have had been.


Yeah.. sorry about that.  Bitmover is working on it, and hoping to get it resolved soon... perhaps within the coming days..

Bitmover provided a status update in this post from yesterday.

Edit: Upon further reading of the posts of the thread, I see that bitmover already responded to address this matter..


Of course, it is better late than never in terms of your own decisions to become more active in regards to investing into bitcoin with DCA and even perhaps in a somewhat regularly aggressive kind of way, instead of what seems to be your inclinations to try to time you BTC buys, which may not really do you any favors until you get to a certain higher point of your BTC accumulation.

So yeah it would be difficult for any of us to really know if another person is being sufficiently aggressive enough in his BTC accumulation and/or if he is otherwise employing strategies that are sufficiently suitable and tailored to his own circumstances - as in the 9 factors that I had outlined in one of my earlier posts.

Many of us likely realize that many newbies to bitcoin and even guys who are in their earliest of stages of BTC accumulation will become overly greedy and/or overly risk taking because they believe that they are too late to accumulate bitcoin and they think that they need to make up for the time in which they had not been sufficiently and/or adequately stacking sats and/or when they might have been employing inferior techniques in regards to actually accumulating BTC.  So, from my perspective, if you are really getting into regularly stacking BTC (sats) and you have some sufficiently aggressive measures in place, then you are likely going to be quite a bit ahead of both normies who are economically similarly situated as you and also ahead of another version of yourself who had not decided to aggressively stack sats.

and yeah sometimes it can take 2-3 cycles or even more to really achieve a meaningful amount of bitcoin and/or wealth, and surely there are some disadvantages in regards to some of the BIGGER financial players coming on board and offering efficient on boarding avenues to a lot of folks, institutions and governments who would have otherwise not been ready, willing and/or able to buy BTC (referring to the ETFs), and so yeah, BTC's price is quite likely going to continue to be driven up due to these kinds of ongoing short-term price pressures.. which drives up the price for any newbies coming into bitcoin and might even cause some of the newbies to either not invest into bitcoin or to even sell bitcoin that they have because they wrongly consider themselves as either too late or they believe that they might be able to sell and to buy back more cheaply.. which surely are dumb and/or ill-informed kinds of perspectives in regards to appreciating bitcoin's current and ongoing value proposition.

So yeah, it is going to continue to take a lot of normies a long time to get into bitcoin and an overwhelming majority of them are going to end up having to buy bitcoin quite a bit down the road and at quite a bit higher prices than current prices.

Well, then that seems even less useful than what I had presumed it to potentially be - since it surely seems that we would need to peg the values to USD rather than not having them pegged (sure we could peg the value to something else, such as goods/services such as Hookers, Lambos and Blow, but you would have to find an API that has those kinds of goods and services).. ...

so yeah, we surely would not want to return to the earlier levels of BTC trade volumes because that would be just saying that BTC is going down in price and surely there is almost no way that exchanges are even close to holding as many BTC as they held in the past.. Even the 30k bearwhale example from late 2014.. would be impossible for any normal BTC holder to achieve... If any of us might recall (and you can probably google the topic) in late 2014, the Bitstamp bear whale, put up 30k BTC for sale at $300, and it took half a day or a day to eat through all of those BTC, so you can consider that he ended up selling $9 million worth of BTC for that price.. which now days would be only around 128.6 BTC if we use $70k as the current BTC price ..

Anyhow, so now that you describe what that volume means, it is seeming to be a kind of meaningless metric.. and I would be more interested in some kind of a metric that presents the total dollar value of the BTC traded and then ranks the results within the top 100, and you seem to already have enough information (data) to work out a formula which would be something like the total BTC traded for the day multiplied by the weighted average BTC price for the day, and then from that you would end up producing your own ranking list that would show the top 100 traded-volume days based on USD value of the BTC... which surely would be a more meaningful metric... rather than merely looking at some non-tethered measurement that is showing merely how many BTC were traded for any particular day... even some of the 1 BTC = 1 BTC nonsensical asserters should be able to recognize that just telling us how many BTC were traded does not really help anyone to peg the idea to contemporary values in the real world.

Here's a link to an interesting 1 and 20 minute link to a Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast that involve Jaime Garcia talking about some on the ground matters related to El Salvador's bitcoin adoption and also talking a bit about Mi Primer Bitcoin, about Bukele's re-election and some of Bukele's policies.. including talking about El Salvador as location that has to import a lot of its food and energy.. and having some challenges in terms of natural resources and challenges of being quite densily populated in the areas of the country that are habitable.


Oh?  Jaime Garcia makes an interesting point about whether other countries are going to follow El Salvador, and he suggests that a lot of other countries are likely not to follow El Salvador exactly because they will end up getting targeted if they were to say that they were doing that, so instead they are likely just to be a bit more passive in regards to their allowance of a variety of other currencies to be used in their countries, which will end up also allowing bitcoin.

That last column does seem potentially interesting, but I remain a wee confused about how to read what it is telling us or understand it.

So then is that data in the last column listed in millions of dollars or thousands of dollars?  I would suspect that it is millions of dollars, but I am still not sure if I understand it... or if you have a proper link to an explanation of it (maybe I missed an explanation link?)

Let me see if I can attempt to describe what I think that the data is showing, which is the days in which the BTC trade volume in terms of dollars was the highest (the highest 100 days within the last 1800 days), and the reason that none of the dates that last column are in 2024 and/or none of the dates match with any of the dates in our top 100 table is because those highest trade volume dates tend to be dumps rather than pumps..

which in my further speculation really seems to show how bear-twats, bitcoin naysayers, or just traders who try to trick retail come onto exchanges and dump fuck ton loads of coins in order to try to get retail (and/or weak hands) to follow - i.e. manipulate on the way down and are willing to spend a lot of BTC in order to attempt to accomplish their objectives to bring the BTC price down.. so it is not really organic. .. .but still it is a reality of the world in which we live and in some sense shows how BTC markets are currently behaving under our current dynamics of who has coins and how they might get their coins.

Hopefully, you are able to respond to my "attempt to describe" and there is no need for you to respond (unless you want to) to "my further speculation."

Thanks again DK for being so proactive in the presentation of this information.. which may well end up helping some of us to understand some of the data better and also to come up with some of our theories which may or may not end up being well-tethered to reality.  

Sure it is good to read and to find out things..

Yet with something like bitcoin it is also very good to act and to put systems in place and to learn more about it, especially since it is likely facilitating the largest wealth transfer known to mankind and it is still early days of adoption.. so in that regard, the sooner that you get started in bitcoin the better, even if you are ONLY able to accomplish $10 per week or some other modest amount that is within your capabilities while you are learning more about it. 

In other words the sooner the better, and don't be fucking around with shitcoins and./or diluting your bitcoin investment until, at least, you have some good ideas about bitcoin first, and even if you end up getting sucked into shitcoins because you cannot resist gambling and/or you cannot resist their convincing talking points, don't do any more than 10% investment into shitcoins as compared to the size of your bitcoin investment.


Mine has been the same.  There are certain failure limits, so over the 53 days that I have been doing pushups, in the beginning I was failing at 20, 25, and 30, and then after a week or two I started failing at 35 and 40, and lately I have been able to get up to 50 or 55, but then I slowed my pushups down a bit and I am back to failing at 40 and 45, which is o.k... especially since for the last month i have continued to achieve 5 sets per day.

There might be some day that I might be able to do a fast 60 .. or maybe a slow 55.. yet keeping track of them really does seem to be helpful, including that in the last couple of days, I started to time my pushup sets (and to write down the time for each one of the sets)... which is currently gravitating towards 1 second per pushup.


Good explanation and clarification.  There might be some guys who might be interested in such a cross-fit thread, but maybe not necessarily in the same kind of structure that you are doing cross fit.. since if you make it too narrow, then there might be variety of ways that guys do it.. and surely, at my age that would be too much for me, but sometimes there could be ways to vary it.. in terms of the kinds of exercise, and surely there are going to be some older folks who are not going to want to get into some competition based on time, but just proud of themselves to be able to get through a whole set.. or even part of a set that they set up for themselves for their own physical state.. just like here, guys can report their number of pushups and even describe how they are doing them, and hopefully they are largely competing against themselves instead of competing against other forum members.

Similar when we are stacking sats, no?  We might consider our own fuck you status or even consider how many sats that we are able to stack within our own financial means.. and surely the guys who got started stacking sats earlier would have some advantages, even though there are going to be some guys who are able to catch up by using their own discipline or merely to just end up improving their own situation, even if it might appear that they have a relatively small stack size compared to some other forum members.

Ok. great.   Hopefully one of them ends up working for us, and is satisfactory...

Personally, I don't believe in selling on the way down, .. so from my point of view there has to be some attempts to commit to selling on the way up at various points, even if the BTC price might be going up further .. and it seems quite possible for anyone who has been accumulating and/or holding BTC for a decent point of time to figure out either 1) various places to cash out a little bit on the way up or 2) cash out some on a regular basis no matter what the price or 3) cash out merely at points that you need some, which also likely is not very sensitive what the price..

yet of course, if we have enough BTC and/or more than enough BTC we could still modify our behaviors a bit in terms of figuring out when the BTC price is at relatively low points of being within 25% or closer to the 200-WMA or maybe on the other side of matters when the BTC price is several multiples higher than the 200-WMA... . and yeah, right now we are ONLY around 2x higher than the 200-WMA and we are also passing through no man's land (or don't wake me up zone) and surely anyone who is nervous should just sell a bit of BTC even if this seems like a pretty fucking dumb area to be selling any BTC.. but hey, guys can do what they like... .

I also don't think guys should be getting worried about if they might end up holding for 2-3 years or longer to get back to current prices, and sure anything can happen, but if they cannot hold and/or keep buying BTC for the next 2-3 years if the BTC price were to drop, then they might already be overexposed and needing to shave off some corns at various points along the way, even if these are likely price points that are going to end up in a lot of regrets for guys selling way too many coins too early.. but shaving off a few here and there, should not be a problem for any guy who is already overly allocated or has been in bitcoin for quite a while, even if we might end up doing another 10x or more from here in the coming 6-18 months.

By the way, in my own personal situation, I have been selling on the way up since $250-ish.. so I have no problem to continue to sell if it goes up or just start buying if it goes down, and so I have outstanding buy orders that go down to $20k-ish.. but if there were some reason that I need some worldly goods and/or services and I feel that I don't have enough fiat, I don't have any problem shaving more off here or at any price point, even if we might dip some more so I am not necessarily selling in regards to the price if there were some event that motivated me to shave off some coins which for sure could happen at any time.. .. yet at the same time, just continuing to shave off some from here to $700k or whatever the high point ends up being is kind of already tentatively planned out, even though my current sell orders ONLY go up to around $150k.. but if we get into the mid $80ks or higher, I might need to add some additional sell orders.. since I hate to NOT have sell orders at less than 2x the current price..

I also hate to have too many encumbrances of having too many orders to maintain, in either price direction, so sometimes there can be some value in culling some of the current existing orders and increasing the spreads for the ones on the way down.. and on the way up, I have already pretty much had them established since early 2021.. even though there have been a few tweaks here an there. and also sometimes exchanges will cancel or lose all of the outstanding orders, so they have to be set up again after that happens, which might be an opportunity to rethink them (and/or tweak them) a wee bit to make them more logical and/or comfortable...


So does  this mean that in the past few days, you started to time the ChartBuddy recap to run from midnight UTC until the following midnight?

That seems good, so that we would know that the first ones in the run would be early in the day and the last ones in the run would be at the end of the day, in terms of UTC.. Maybe you could add some kind of a description of that, so that it is easier to understand how it runs?

I personally have been tending to look more at the recaps rather than the actual ChartBuddys, since that provides a lot of juxtaposition of each of the hourly reports and if one or more of them stand out, then that could motivate going back and looking at the one or two that stand out.