FTFY (sorry, couldn't resist )

10,000th post!!!


(oops, missed by 2!)

I think probably many more people believe they're doing well day trading than actually are for the following reason.  Unlike day trading shares or anything else where the trader will always look at their trading position from the perspective of the currency with which they bought the shares/currency/whatever, many people trading Bitcoin also intend to keep it long-term.  If trading from the 'home' perspective of USD for example, your position is  'open' when you've bought the shares/currency/whatever and is 'closed' when they've been sold.  Normally, calculations as to how well one is trading are made excluding the value of 'open positions'.  But because most people in Bitcoin believe in it longer-term there is no 'closed' position.

So with no intention to 'close' their Bitcoin positions counting success as described above won't show much whilst including 'open positions' as a measure of success omits the risk inherent in the 'un-closed' position;

Ah, but I hear the protests coming: 'But who is to say fiat is safer than Bitcoin?'.  True.  I tend to agree.  That's not what I'm intending to imply.  If the trader is thinking of Bitcoin as how they want to be conducting their day-to-day business then the logical position to be trading from, once one has one's long-term Bitcoin holding, is with Bitcoin as the 'home' currency.  An 'open position' then becomes when the trader has bought fiat when he/she believes it to be cheap and is 'closed' again when the temporarily owned fiat is sold again for Bitcoin.  This leaves us able to look at success in trading as the increase or decrease in the trading capital only of closed positions.  But I don't think many are thinking or trading this way.  For a start all the charts show the rising Bitcoin against the dollar (which is how you'd want to see it from a 'fiat-as-home' trading perspective).  Also, the posts here mostly come across as talking about their trading and their successes or failures from a dollar perspective.  

Trading in to a rising market is a lot easier than trading into a falling market.  The few I've seen around here who really talk as if they're trading from a dollar perspective (maybe holding a long-term Bitcoin position separately) unsurprisingly seem to do well (in dollar terms). But trading from a Bitcoin perspective is trading into a falling fiat market (the charts the appropriate way round for this perspective would show the USD largely on the decline).  One has to be smart and lucky to both spot and trade the fiat buying opportunities and to close the position at a reasonable profit or to close and accept a loss ready to try again.  I'd be interested to know what percentage of traders, were they to look at and count their successes or failures this way, would be doing as well as they currently believe they are.

I'm wondering again about this substantial price difference between Havelock and MPEx.  Lightbox, on your site you say:

"Units of the fund ARE convertible to shares on MPEX at 1 unit = 100 shares PUSHED to your MPEx account for a fixed fee of 10 BTC per transfer (fee subject to change)."

Is that an automated service or do you have to do that manually.

Bloody ell, 500th page of this thread!!!  Congrats Adam and all.

And here's a reminder of where we* were - the first wall pic from the second post which is from less than than 36 weeks ago!




BTW wasposa, cracked up at the Give-A-Fuck-O-Meter  Thanks for that.


* When I say 'we' it didn't include me at the time.  I'd discovered bitcoin around April time but with the price having dropped from such a height and looking like it was going nowhere, reading stuff like the infamous Wired 'Rise and Fall' article I decided to wait for now to see what would happen.  By the time I'd got back around to checking it out it was October so I came in at twice the price I would have.  However I'm happy to have joined the party then.  It's certainly a fun ride

I'm still finding it funny that the big IT monster everyone was scared of only a few years back was Microsoft -who don't even feature on many of these lists anymore.  Never is a big word to use for markets as dynamic as these where everything can change so quickly.  Remember Microsoft had bet against the internet ever becoming big and were latecomers to that scene.  But you're right about bitcoin being waaay too small now with the significant but still tiny money supply at a quarter billion USD.

It concerns me a little when I hear novices say 'the price did x because of y'.  One conceptual tool you could do well by bearing in mind when you're reading this forum (and in life in general) is 'Correlation does not imply causation'.  Sorry if that comes over as patronising but it's a powerful concept.  People ascribe all kinds of causes to what has happened and what will.  Nobody can disprove their theories but if they are trading their beliefs when they're wrong and the price moves differently to what they predicted...

No, the Bitcoins being lost has the opposite effect than demurrage in that it increases the value of all remaining Bitcoin.  The point with demurrage is that there is an associated cost with holding onto currency.  By holding it it loses value.  From what I understand in the case of freicoin it's as if the coins are slowly seeping out of your wallet to the miners.  The purpose is to encourage people to invest and to spend; to give an incentive to its users to keep the money moving.  Although I sort-of see why that might be a good idea I don't understand why people would choose for themselves to use such a currency over one that does not lose value.  But that's something for another thread

Welcome Bar.  Right now if you venture over to the Speculation sub-topic you will find hugely varying opinions on this with people arguing passionately why they believe the price will move up or down (not many arguing for leveling here though!).  Your $100 test is fine for testing the process of buying but I would advise strongly against looking at your gain over the last two days as an indication that you should invest more.

I think you need to come to an opinion as to whether you think Bitcoin has an immense potential and is likely to reach it (in which case they are currently really cheap), how likely do you think some replacement coin, a government clampdown, a technological attack or weakness or something else will come along and smash most if not all out of its price or something in between.  I'm talking long term here.  Once you have decided what you think is the most likely scenario there's the question of where we are now.  How widely is it used, how much of it is in the hands of those who are looking at some point in taking a profit in dollars/euros/pounds.  How much is in 'weak hands' or nervous hands where a drop in price would cause them to lose confidence and sell (thus accelerating a downward spike), how many who say if the price came down to x that they would use it as an opportunity to buy would in such a circumstance still remain confident enough to do so.  Where would you stand.  if you are going to buy would you consider yourself a 'trader' and try and sell to buy cheaper regularly (a dangerous tactic so far with many getting left behind with fiat having to buy back in more expensive)?  If you believe it likely it will be a lot more successful than it is and you are not trading would you be OK to watch it go to two thirds, half or an eighth of the price you bought (with no obvious reason undermining the fundamentals) just to hold on maintaining your belief it will raise again?

One advantage we have is that there is, as you have been finding out, a huge amount of information out there with facts about how it works and its potential, about its history and of course the records of the markets with fiat currencies.  And on top of that you've got the diverse opinions of people of journalists, economists and everybody on these boards.  If you spend time reading you'll get to find who you think is talking sensibly and may want to give more weight to their opinions than others.  Be wary not to let your own political opinions cloud your judgement as to the likelihood of Bitcoin succeeding.  At the same time, be aware of other people's preparedness to buy into and determinedly hold onto Bitcoin because of their own political beliefs.

Last but not least.  Whilst what you want to aim for (and to a certain extent have no choice about) is to trade your beliefs, also never forget nothing is certain in life and even if briefly, give yourself the opportunity without dismissing it too quickly of considering what would your situation be if Bitcoin crashed after you've invested most heavily.  Is that a scenario you'd be OK with.  If it scares you then maybe it would be an idea to be thinking of not speculating so heavily.

All the best with it all and welcome

Tf

GBP has moved a fair bit today but the Brits seem reluctant to take it to £15. Maybe because it just feels to soon since we hit £14!  I think the USD is going to need to pass the $24 mark and a bit before the confidence will be in place to venture over £15.

If it (and I realise this is pretty speculative) the 5k was used to buy BTC with which to buy S.DICE, surely it's less likely the shares would be re-sold and BTC converted back to $ on Monday than were it just a BTC speculator intending to re-sell at the first sign of a drop?

But to be fair, he did call it the beginning of the bubble so I don't think he's had a total bull conversion

LOL

Ha, I was earlier trying to remember in which thread we'd had this discussion in order to come back take my hat off to you in respect for your prediction

I did mention on the wall thread that the 5k buy that looks it like triggered this rally could be because someone needed the bitcoin for a 1m purchace of S.DICE.  However, as much as I like to find a way of fitting what's happened into what I was saying I'd have to conclude I'm verging into wild speculation if I'm going to explain why the raise

Excellent.  Come to think of it it is not that unlikely that Marvin the Paranoid Androind (here's another link) will have been modeled on Eeyore's.

I'd forgotten how funny Marvin was.  Thanks for the reminder

Might have been something to do with someone buying over 1m S.DICE shares in one hit after evoorhees said he'd take them off the market unless they were gone by tomorrow ev.

It will be interesting to see whether this buyer bought for the dividends or for trading.  If the latter any 'recovery' towards previous highs would I guess be slow with this (and other traders who bought 'low' this week) selling them off if, as and when the price rises again.

I'm sorry Proudhon but I seem to have got into the habit when I read your posts of hearing them in Marvin's voice from the BBC's Hitchhikers' Guide to the Galaxy!

FTFY

It's the means of paying so little without breaking tax laws that they all that money for.  Evasion is illegal.  Avoidance is smart (or inconsiderate/cheating, depending on your perspective).