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681  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 27, 2012, 04:02:56 AM
Update

Our fund's name is shortened from the awkward "muBit" to a single Greek letter "μ", since it is already called so by most of people, including ourselves.
That is!  I am pulling all my money out!  -snip-

I would, but not because of the name change.

First, a suggestion to friedcat and anyone else with a fund or etf: use mark to market and publish your NAV (Net Asset Value) and NAV/share as frequently as possible.

Let's compute the NAV based on last night's financial report:

Cash: 189.277
Bitbond: 134 @.6319 = 84.6746
Gigamining: 40 @1.48 = 59.2

Those prices are the lesser of last trade or ask right now (2:15 PM Eastern US time).  I didn't use bid prices (which would be lower) so as not to unfairly bias my math.

NAV = 333.1516
Shares issued and outstanding: 3000
NAV/share = .11105 BTC

Last trade for MU was @.275 current best ask is @.269 - that's more than double the NAV/share!

The premium to NAV/share is .269 - .11105 = .15795  WOW!

But it pays a dividend you say?!  About .002/share yesterday.  Let's pretend it will be that profitable for many many weeks.  .15795 / .002 = 78.975  So it will take 79 weeks (about 1.5 years) to recover that premium using the dividend.

Not knocking you, friedcat, but someone's got a lot of faith in you, congrats!  :-)

I can buy "regular" ETF's near or even below NAV on US stock markets.  Either the folks trading MU are bad at math, or must think MU will be accelerating its revenue big time.


Thank you very much. I like your criticism. Smiley We will calculate the NAV out in future financial reports. But we have to explain some of my points here:

1. It is common that an asset is traded at a price far above (NAV/number of shares). If you liquidate a company of great performance, the money you get could be comparative to the NAV, and I believe that it will usually be much less than the market value. Just take GLBSE mining stocks as examples, if you use 1000BTC to buy GPUs, the NAV automatically shrinks to less than 600BTC after the first minute they are plugged onto motherboards, and if you buy FPGAs, I believe the NAV will be less than 200BTC after they are used for the first time. How long should shareholder wait to fully recover the price difference?

2. Yes, it will take 1.5 years to recover that premium. But even at this price level, the time is still shorter than some of the mining companies on GLBSE.

3. We are not an ETF, we are a venture capital fund, and besides hunting IPOs and startups, we are also doing arbitraging, market making, and anything that could bring our shareholders greater returns.

4. I myself, as many folks do, think MU will be accelerating its revenue in all scales of time. This is why I started MU in the first place.

Another thing I want to emphasis, is that both our NAV increasing and the dividends come from our profit. 60%(65% if I don't take fees) of the profits go to NAV, and 35% of the profits are paid as dividends. So suppose we will be as profitable as last week for many weeks, at the same time a shareholder needs 1.5 years to get 0.15975BTC/share from dividends, the NAV itself already rises to 0.11105+(0.15975*60%/35%)=0.38491BTC/share then.

Therefore, while people who drove the price of MU high are of course optimistic towards our business, they probably are good at math as well. Grin
682  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-04-20 A big cover story in the weekend edition of The Marker [Israel] on: April 26, 2012, 02:26:32 PM
I added some more to the translation.

Upon closer inspection, the article contains numerous factual errors and unwarranted sensationalism. But as I said it's a bit better than what we usually have.

Thanks for devoting so much of your time in translating it. I've done some casual translation before and I found that it's both time and brain-power consuming.
683  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Peter Thiel, monopolies, capitialism, competition and new businesses: on: April 26, 2012, 11:15:37 AM

Good and inspiring article.

It is in fact an elemental introduction to the conception of "Enterpreneurship" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entrepreneurship).
684  Economy / Securities / Re: Should I start Diablo Mining Company, a 1M BTC startup? on: April 26, 2012, 08:35:33 AM
The plan is to issue 1 million shares (no additional shares or bonds forever, although splits might happen if/when GLBSE supports it) at 1 BTC each..

Poll is set to show results after 7 days, poll will only run for 7 days.

Contract: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77469.msg861305#msg861305
Plan: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77469.msg867837#msg867837

You could raise 1K, 2K or 5K BTC first to get your hands on real mining first. Then if you are doing well, it could naturally expand magnitudes by magnitudes. The possibility of its finally growth to the 1M BTC scale is also not deniable.

But why do you have to throw out frightening numbers like 1M BTC on the start? Is the idea of "get big immediately or go home" so attractive? Why are incremental plans so bad for you? For successful businesses like Apple, their yearly income's errors are larger than the current whole Bitcoin economy. They did not start with as much as (1MBTC*5$/BTC=5M$) anyway.

By starting small, you will be:

1. More adaptable to technology change.
2. Having more immediate returns to attract larger investments.
3. proving yourself really qualified for managing more and more funds.

And if you insist your current plan, you will not be taken very seriously by some of the potential investors.
685  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 26, 2012, 04:41:57 AM
I haven’t done the research on this asset, but perhaps it is a case of the Greater Fool Theory.

Some people may be aware of it and just expect there to be new people who are bad at math to buy them later on, or even new people who expect new people who are bad at math. Grin

I think the Greater Fool Theory does apply to many circumstances. But a large price increase does not necessarily mean that the Greater Fool Effect is a dominant factor. While the rise of Bitcoin price from 2010's 0$ to last June's 20$ might be mainly caused by the Fools, the rise from 2010's 0$ to today's 5$ is probably not. Smiley
686  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 26, 2012, 04:22:07 AM
Update

Our fund's name is shortened from the awkward "muBit" to a single Greek letter "μ", since it is already called so by most of people, including ourselves.
That is!  I am pulling all my money out!  -snip-

I would, but not because of the name change.

First, a suggestion to friedcat and anyone else with a fund or etf: use mark to market and publish your NAV (Net Asset Value) and NAV/share as frequently as possible.

Let's compute the NAV based on last night's financial report:

Cash: 189.277
Bitbond: 134 @.6319 = 84.6746
Gigamining: 40 @1.48 = 59.2

Those prices are the lesser of last trade or ask right now (2:15 PM Eastern US time).  I didn't use bid prices (which would be lower) so as not to unfairly bias my math.

NAV = 333.1516
Shares issued and outstanding: 3000
NAV/share = .11105 BTC

Last trade for MU was @.275 current best ask is @.269 - that's more than double the NAV/share!

The premium to NAV/share is .269 - .11105 = .15795  WOW!

But it pays a dividend you say?!  About .002/share yesterday.  Let's pretend it will be that profitable for many many weeks.  .15795 / .002 = 78.975  So it will take 79 weeks (about 1.5 years) to recover that premium using the dividend.

Not knocking you, friedcat, but someone's got a lot of faith in you, congrats!  :-)

I can buy "regular" ETF's near or even below NAV on US stock markets.  Either the folks trading MU are bad at math, or must think MU will be accelerating its revenue big time.


Thank you very much. I like your criticism. Smiley We will calculate the NAV out in future financial reports. But we have to explain some of my points here:

1. It is common that an asset is traded at a price far above (NAV/number of shares). If you liquidate a company of great performance, the money you get could be comparative to the NAV, and I believe that it will usually be much less than the market value. Just take GLBSE mining stocks as examples, if you use 1000BTC to buy GPUs, the NAV automatically shrinks to less than 600BTC after the first minute they are plugged onto motherboards, and if you buy FPGAs, I believe the NAV will be less than 200BTC after they are used for the first time. How long should shareholder wait to fully recover the price difference?

2. Yes, it will take 1.5 years to recover that premium. But even at this price level, the time is still shorter than some of the mining companies on GLBSE.

3. We are not an ETF, we are a venture capital fund, and besides hunting IPOs and startups, we are also doing arbitraging, market making, and anything that could bring our shareholders greater returns.

4. I myself, as many folks do, think MU will be accelerating its revenue in all scales of time. This is why I started MU in the first place.
687  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 26, 2012, 04:07:07 AM
Update

Our fund's name is shortened from the awkward "muBit" to a single Greek letter "μ", since it is already called so by most of people, including ourselves.
That it!  I am pulling all my money out!  You can't just change the name all willy-nilly Wink


Well, I think that "MU" or "μ" was already the de-facto name used more widely than the long and cumbersome "muBit". Cheesy
688  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 25, 2012, 02:11:22 PM
Update

Our fund's name is shortened from the awkward "muBit" to a single Greek letter "μ", since it is already called so by most of people, including ourselves.
689  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] muBit - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: April 25, 2012, 01:25:14 PM
The Normalization Method

If new asset(s) are included in the list, the result will be normalized using this coefficient:

O/(O+N)

If asset(s) are removed from the list, the result will be normalized using this coefficient:

(O+N)/O

O: The Index of the old assets in the last week
N: The Total Value of the specific asset(s) in the last week
690  Economy / Lending / Re: Borrowing GLBSE shares on: April 25, 2012, 12:04:05 PM
BTW, if any of the issuers raises a motion, I will vote neither Yes nor No by default. But of course you could contact me if you want to vote for a side.

If you've sold them short you won't be able to vote.

GLBSE should allow voting on less than the full holding for shares held beneficially for others, who may not all vote the same way.

As explained in the OP, the main reason I borrow them is not for shorting. I'm doing market making, so basically I'm both buying and selling at the same time, I borrow them to hedge my risk of holding too much of them and unable to sell at a reasonable price.

This implies that I will hold some of them most of the time. Smiley
691  Economy / Lending / Re: Borrowing GLBSE shares on: April 25, 2012, 10:42:09 AM
BTW, if any of the issuers raises a motion, I will vote neither Yes nor No by default. But of course you could contact me if you want to vote for a side.
692  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BTC-Mining - 75 Ghash/s members owned mining op (9918 shares left) on: April 25, 2012, 10:36:28 AM
The others seem to understand those things too and that the rigs are a much better option cost-wise and also necessary competitive wise with their much lower power consumption. They seem to still be interested even if that means to wait for delivery. So I'll avoid going for singles or the Lancelot which have worse mhash/$ for now and are more power hungry.

The more it goes, the more I feel it's an awareness issue. People are either unaware the IPO is underway or for those that are watching this sub-forum, they have spent their bitcoins on previous IPOs. There's been previous IPOs with large initial volumes that went well.

The first round is already reduced and is one third of the shares as stated. Even less depending on current rate. People may not read this thread in full however. I'm adding that fact to the main post. It may help.

I'll stay active, visit the OTC chat regularly and browse for advertising options. I've also been told by some they will buy shares when I told them about this thread and will even buy some myself which should get BTC-Mining up in the shares list on GLBSE and reduce the shares left before first rig is ordered even further. That should take care of the "so many shares left, and I'll wait and see what other people do"

I'll have to look if anyone has interesting rates for loaning equipment. That may help too.


Great.

And notice that Lancelot's performance data is not revealed yet. The current data (380MH/s,20Watts) you saw comes from Icarus, which Lancelot tries to replace.
693  Economy / Lending / Borrowing GLBSE shares on: April 25, 2012, 09:19:53 AM
Hi everyone,

I'm borrowing these shares:

30xSS

30xBFLS

75xFPGA.contract

You could choose the pay due from either 4 or 8 weeks after the lending date.

4 weeks - 120% of the dividends paid to lenders.
8 weeks - 125% of the dividends paid to lenders.
Each payment will not be later than 24 hours later than the corresponding asset issuers pay their dividends.

Q: What are you going to use them for?
A: I'm going to do market making for them. Borrowing shares is a way to hedge my risk.

Q: Does it have something to do with your fund "MU"?
A: Yes, 75%-100% of the profits will go to MU. Since I haven't raised any motion for allowance of any forms of borrowing, I myself will take all the risk with my own Bitcoin reserve.

Please reply or PM me for details. Witnesses are also invited.
694  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Under New Management on: April 25, 2012, 07:28:17 AM
This is very good news. A bull market need professional, dedicated and teamwork operation. Zhou Tong is very smart but he is not a team and part time CEO.

Bitcoin Consultancy is very talented and promising bitcoin team. They've tried their best to provide an exchange service. However, since the exchange business has very strong network effect, the performance and profit of their exchange cannot reflect their contribution to the community. If they start to work on Bitcoinica, they can bring their us more on this platform.


P.S


Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, which one will be the first to contact bitcoinica to open an institutional account?

I guess smaller and more agile financial companies will be already working with bitcoinica long before that.
695  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BTC-Mining - 75 Ghash/s members owned mining op (9918 shares left) on: April 25, 2012, 05:28:44 AM
A bit slow but they're selling. I've heard of interest in BTC-Mining and seen other mining offers almost sell out on preorders, yet slow.

Would appreciate feedback from the ones that were interested. Are everyone out of bitcoins after the other mnining corp IPOs or the new securities sub-forum just don't get as much exposure?

I'm considering either purchasing a chunk of the shares myself or paying for a bit of advertisement. Opinions on that?

Tips:

1. Reduce your first round of IPO to raise coins for only 1 Mini-Rig. The psychology effect of "so many shares left, and I'll wait and see what other people do" is strong enough to stagnate your fundraising.

2. Use some existing hardware to make some instant profits for shareholders. You can loan them like BTCSYN did.

3. Switch to other mining configurations like BFL single or ngzhang's Lancelot (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=51371.0). The development of the latter hasn't finished (announcements will be in May probably), but I believe that, even so, the delivery date of Lancelot FPGAs will still be earlier than Mini-Rigs. Of course, Lancelot FPGAs has to be competitive to BFL products to be taken into consideration.

4. Advertisement might be helpful, but not as helpful as the three things above (they are not fully compatible to each other, of course, but you could consider 1 or 2 of them.)
696  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] muBit - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU", 1st Round IPO Ended) on: April 25, 2012, 04:35:24 AM
The MU Index for GLBSE

30.85 (kBTC)
157.87 (kDollar)

BTC Price: 5.117$

TyGrr-Bot
  Category: Long Term Bond
  Business: Arbitraging
  Shares in Circulation: 7122
  Closing Price: 1.110BTC
  Total Value: 7905.420BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 40452.034$

PureMining
  Category: Perpetual Bond
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 10000
  Closing Price: 0.370BTC
  Total Value: 3700.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 18932.900$

GigaMining
  Category: Perpetual Bond
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 5000
  Closing Price: 1.490BTC
  Total Value: 7450.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 38121.650$

Cognitive
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 5000
  Closing Price: 0.580BTC
  Total Value: 2900.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 14839.300$

FPGA.contract
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 6000
  Closing Price: 0.440BTC
  Total Value: 2640.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 13508.880$

BFLS
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 2000
  Closing Price: 1.100BTC
  Total Value: 2200.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 11257.400$

BMMO
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 6620
  Closing Price: 0.350BTC
  Total Value: 2317.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 11856.089$

SS
  Category: Stock
  Business: Fund
  Shares in Circulation: 610
  Closing Price: 1.500BTC
  Total Value: 915.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 4682.055$

MU
  Category: Stock
  Business: Fund
  Shares in Circulation: 3000
  Closing Price: 0.275BTC
  Total Value: 825.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 4221.525$
697  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] muBit - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU", 1st Round IPO Ended) on: April 25, 2012, 02:27:22 AM
Weekly Financial Disclosure

Time: 10:06 AM, Beijing time
Date: Apri. 25, 2012

Funds of Last Week: 52.725 BTC

Assets:

Cognitive
Original: 130shares 73.580BTC
Bought in: 23shares 12.880BTC
Average Holding price: (73.580+12.880)/(130+23)=0.565BTC
Sold: 153shares 93.980*(1-0.5%)=93.510BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.611BTC
Holding: 130+23-153=0shares 0.000BTC
Net Gain: 93.510-73.580-12.880=7.050BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.632BTC

BitBond
Original: 155shares 92.250BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.595BTC
Sold: 21shares 13.177*(1-0.5%)=13.111BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.624BTC
Holding: 155+0-21=134shares 79.730BTC
Net Gain: (0.624-0.595)*21=0.609BTC
Dividends Paid: 1.522BTC

Gigamining
Original: 70shares 91.700BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 1.310BTC
Sold: 30shares 46.010*(1-0.5%)=45.780BTC
Average Selling Price: 1.526BTC
Holding: 70+0-30=40shares 52.400BTC
Net Gain: (1.526-1.310)*30=6.480BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.892BTC

Holding Funds=
52.725-12.880+93.510+0.632-0.000+13.111+1.522-0.000+45.780+0.892=195.292BTC

Total Net Gain=
7.050+0.632+0.609+1.522+6.480+0.892=17.185BTC

Calculated Dividends: 17.185*35%=6.015BTC

Usable Funds: 195.292-6.015=189.277BTC (The CEO does not take any fee this week)

Actual Dividends: 6.01479BTC (For Adjusting the rounding errors)
698  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: CoinLab obtains $500k in seed funding on: April 24, 2012, 02:41:37 PM
Legal botnet FTW.


Agreed. Seems like a voluntarily installed botnet to me.
699  Economy / Securities / Re: (TyGrr) TyGrr-Bot ~automated arbitrage trading system~ on: April 24, 2012, 12:16:49 PM
Has live testing begun?

If dividends are not paid on Tuesday I will be giving the bond holders the 50 BTC bonus bounty I promised my team for getting it ready by then.

So, expect something.

We are in live testing and it is making live trades. However since we are not really able to offer you a dividend of any real amount I'm giving you the 50 BTC bounty.

Thank you for waiting and also, whoever is making the price in BTC so stable please stop it!  Wink

Is there a possibility that some secretly built arbitraging bots are already there, competing with yours?
700  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] muBit - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU", 1st Round IPO Ended) on: April 22, 2012, 03:00:24 PM
Will you invest in the BDK IPO? Thanks.

Maybe, but I checked through the BDK thread and found that the pre-IPO shares are all sold out.
Right. 1k shares are reserved for the IPO on May 2nd (I'll be placing an order to sell them @ .055BTC each). However, there are >200 shares already "reserved" through bid orders placed, which requires those potential buyers' commit to having BTC in their GLBSE account for over a week, which I believe indicates fairly high demand, and expect there to be a kind of "auction" at the IPO. Whoever bids the most at time of IPO receives the shares.

The way I've decided to sell BDK profits works a bit like a pyramid. All funds raised through the public offerings, which will occur in small amounts on the second day of each month for at least four months, will boost BDK's equity and thus (ideally) dividends paid out. As the amount "IPO" shares are sold for will likely increase significantly every month, early adopters are greatly rewarded, both in a lower price for shares than later buyers, and also in that they stand to see dividends (and presumably, aftermarket share value) increase significantly each month as more funds are raised through public offerings since future public offerings do not devalue shares already held.

However, if there is an "auction-style" IPO, I honestly have no idea how much BDK IPO shares will sell for. Already at a 10% markup over pre-IPO shares, there appears to still be quite a bit of interest. Potential investors should be very careful not to screw themselves over, as next month, I may sell IPO shares @ .055BTC again, even if people bought @ .08 on May 2nd. Or maybe I'll sell IPO shares @ .075BTC next month -- who knows? Lots of risk -- should be plenty of meat on the bone for investors, though. I purposefully sold the initial IPO shares at a loss for me with regards to income I'll receive each month.


I don't mean to be a hype-peddler, but this should put everything in perspective for those who already did the math and figured the initial IPO shares are being sold at a loss for me: in the first month's IPO, I'm expecting to sell 5% of total shares for ~275BTC, but once all the shares are sold in 2-3 years, I want no less than 40k BTC raised through public offerings. I have no idea if I'll grow BDK to the size I want, but I do enjoy challenges.

Thanks for your reply.

In fact, we ourselves don't believe much in the prediction of the profits in the next month, let alone the month after that. A large spike in Bitcoin price would easily make some of your borrowers unable to repay. Bad loans may happen all the time even if there are no scammers.

But still, we might watch the market reaction and then decide whether to join in your IPO carnival.
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