A subtle, yet powerful shift did occur on the 6th after all. It looks like Spain has quietly defaulted, a restructuring to strengthen the Eurozone will be attempted, and Bernanke's bluff has been rebuked. The tide has finally changed.
I was reading CNN Money earlier (I always go there first to see what BS the MSM is spewing) and one of the articles said that stocks were up because rumor has it that Spain will be requesting a bailout this weekend. So broke sovereign requesting a bailout = stocks up I guess. What an absolute joke. Is it any wonder nearly the only participants left are the banks and hedgies? Got phyzzz? In other news, Bitcoin reached $7.24/BTC today - briefly, on CampBX. CampBX hardly counts  |
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 Guaranteed to be the last thing on your shelf.. |
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The Mayans predicted the block halving  Thats funny right there.. Which will come first the end of the world or the block halving... Oh wait.. same thing |
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The reward drop is definitely not fully priced in yet. In part it is, of course, but not fully. It will become priced in once the reward drop starts to be the #1 talking point in the community. So perhaps a couple of months before the drop. Late Summer at the earliest, probably early Autumn.
More than anything, the reward drop is going to affect miners. Who cares if you have a bunch of BTC you're holding and suddenly they're not created as quickly? But if you're out digging for gold and finding 1BTC per day for a year and suddenly you start to find 0.5BTC per day, your potential to earn money after paying for electricity just got killed. I suspect we will see network hash rate take a major dive following the drop -- I know I'll be shutting down unless price goes up or the number of people mining drops substantially (e.g. difficulty goes down). won't this open the network to be easily taken over by a 51% attack:S Probably not. |
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Dank hasn't logged in since the 5th.
He's probably rolling on his sweet new bike your BTC bought him!!  |
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lol, you should have negotiated!! It would have made for a much funnier conversation.. I bet you could have got him down to 10 or 20 btc if you really tried.. You should have started off with 2 satoshi's.. |
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So 1 ton == 3.5 kw. That means I need ~29 tons, or I was off by 10x. I'll have to rerun the numbers. Blergh. Although, this is why I publicly post numbers, someone always catches a mistake. actually you were off by 24x. wolframalpha used days instead of hours for one of the numbers, I sent in an error report about it. Well, I budgeted for 40 tons. I think thats enough for 100kw of hardware, right? Yup. You may want to think about how to build out in a modular fashion, it seems unlikely you will acquire enuf funds in time to build the large scale facility your envisioning. If you started with say a <1k sq ft building with a 3-5 ton unit on it and put 10kw of equipment in it, built in such a way that you could add on bascially the same exact footprint/wiring/hvac to it, you could build out in small chunks to the size your thinking about. Like a 25'x25' insulated garage with a 200A panel on it would be a good starting point.. |
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I've read this entire thread with the hope of seeing an image of a platypus, but no joy, hence this post.  Awww, I sent that pic to my friend! |
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So 1 ton == 3.5 kw. That means I need ~29 tons, or I was off by 10x. I'll have to rerun the numbers. Blergh. Although, this is why I publicly post numbers, someone always catches a mistake. actually you were off by 24x. wolframalpha used days instead of hours for one of the numbers, I sent in an error report about it. |
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this is it boys this is the start of the epic rise in value!
we are moving up to 8$ b4 the end of next week, mark my words
marked. 5.62 isn't quite $8... |
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I dont see where they are claiming they will keep the coins. If I had that much money invested I would be doing everything possible to comply with the document request. Personally I think its crazy to put that much money through one exchange  I have to agree with this. If I put 100 grand in an exchange and they requested AML/KYC docs, I would hand it all over. The only reason not to hand over those docs is if you have something to hide. At the end of the day, if you have nothing to hide, hand over the identification documents. Who cares whether it's crypto doing their own policing or the bank that is asking them for it, were talking about 100 grand. Look at the dates.. (Use this http://masterrussian.com/vocabulary/russian_months.htm ) This guy had a ton of cash in the exchange and then for 2 months got the run around about his withdrawl wires, Mtgox is f'n us, we sent the wires, you didn't get them??.. Then after 2 months of excuses he gets, we need your apostille docs and we have suspended your account.. Because the last 2k of coins he put in were tainted.. Seriously.. Something fishy is going on here on both sides. I like how Ken cusses out the mtgox exchange owner multiple times, and blames not sending wires on them (basically admiting they didn't have the money to pay), real professionalism there  |
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understood. but my subs know i put that GDXJ long on early last week. and there are a bunch of them here who would roast me if i lied.
necessarily, i have to keep my best stuff to me and my subs otherwise what do they pay for? so my discussions here will oftentimes sound incomplete.
Here's an idea: Take one safe-ish strategy, advertise it publically, and play it. Then state the win metrics, and also the win metrics for the better plays that you and your subscribers have going. Like you say, if you are bullshitting, your subscribers will call you on it. Hell, get a proven string going and even I would be likely to sign up! 7% a week baby, can't beat it!! |
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Lol, So its just not possible that on June19-20 they ease anyways, even thu the Bernake didn't address it today.. Or they ease the meeting after that, or the meeting after that..
The Fed WILL ease! The Fed will raise rates! The Fed will lower rates! Thats what the Fed does..
My pronouncement is for the immediately tradeable future. Should I see things differently you may see a thread entitled "The Fed will ease". But that is not where we are now. Fact of the matter is, the Fed has little or no dry powder. The more that other CBs ease without the Fed having to do so gives them more room to move. They will allow this to happen by sitting on their hands... Define immediately.. 3 Fed meetings?? next week? I can unequivocally say that the Fed will in fact not ease next week . Until conditions change. This is an assessment of current conditions, not dogma... Lol, I predict that you will never take a shit again.. Well.. until conditions change.. |
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Lol, So its just not possible that on June19-20 they ease anyways, even thu the Bernake didn't address it today.. Or they ease the meeting after that, or the meeting after that..
The Fed WILL ease! The Fed will raise rates! The Fed will lower rates! Thats what the Fed does..
My pronouncement is for the immediately tradeable future. Should I see things differently you may see a thread entitled "The Fed will ease". But that is not where we are now. Fact of the matter is, the Fed has little or no dry powder. The more that other CBs ease without the Fed having to do so gives them more room to move. They will allow this to happen by sitting on their hands... Define immediately.. 3 Fed meetings?? next week? I can unequivocally say that the Fed will in fact not ease next week . |
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I'm just putting this out there.
There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.
Do I think gold and BTC will keep pace with the USD? Yes I do.
If I am correct we will continue to see an erosion of USD as a percent of BTC trading volume. Currently 74% as reported by Bitcoincharts. And a concomitant reduction of Gox's market share as it is largely driven by USD volume, currently 61%.
The Fed did not ease.USD Share 73% Gox Share 60% The Fed didn't have a meeting... The Fed doesn't have to have a meeting to send out signals... uh ok you said "The Fed did not ease." You didn't say, the Fed sent signals today.. Of course they didn't ease today.. You can say that everyday, but the only day it's relevant is when they have a meeting.. The next one is June 19-20.. That's the way it really works though. Please forgive my imprecise language. Everyone seemed so certain that a direct QE3 is going to happen. The Bernank effectively neutralized that signal. Fed QE3 is not going to happen... Since he neutralized the signal PMs dropped. DXY went up. The world is chasing USD, which is exactly what I would expect to happen. Lol, So its just not possible that on June19-20 they ease anyways, even thu the Bernake didn't address it today.. Or they ease the meeting after that, or the meeting after that.. The Fed WILL ease! The Fed will raise rates! The Fed will lower rates! Thats what the Fed does.. |
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I'm just putting this out there.
There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.
Do I think gold and BTC will keep pace with the USD? Yes I do.
If I am correct we will continue to see an erosion of USD as a percent of BTC trading volume. Currently 74% as reported by Bitcoincharts. And a concomitant reduction of Gox's market share as it is largely driven by USD volume, currently 61%.
The Fed did not ease.USD Share 73% Gox Share 60% The Fed didn't have a meeting... The Fed doesn't have to have a meeting to send out signals... uh ok you said "The Fed did not ease." You didn't say, the Fed sent signals today.. Of course they didn't ease today.. You can say that everyday, but the only day it's relevant is when they have a meeting.. The next one is June 19-20.. |
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I'm just putting this out there.
There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.
Do I think gold and BTC will keep pace with the USD? Yes I do.
If I am correct we will continue to see an erosion of USD as a percent of BTC trading volume. Currently 74% as reported by Bitcoincharts. And a concomitant reduction of Gox's market share as it is largely driven by USD volume, currently 61%.
The Fed did not ease. USD Share 73% Gox Share 60% The Fed didn't have a meeting... |
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this thread was started 3/13 Bitcoin 5.40 Gold 1690. today 6/7 Bitcoin 5.50 (up ~2%) Gold 1585 (down ~6%) BTC is up ( finally; 3 months after the call ) Gold still hasn't collapsed. BTC is outperforming gold. AAPL 572 (just a few more days) GLD 154 (cypher shorted at 152) and this definately wasn't cherry picking, as gold is getting hammered today, cause the bearded one forgot to mention he's gonna open a couple more spillways corrections: 1. i never said the beginning of this thread was a starting point. it was a general continuation call from last year August. 2. my GLD short was hedged by a GDXJ long which I took off last Friday so now I am net positive on the paired trade. 3. the GG, DZZ, ZSL and SLW shorts are killin' it. 4. yes, i'm going to lose on the Apple bet. how did i let him change the original proposal that AAPL wouldn't hit 700? 5. oh yes; silverbox is upside down on his miner trade lol. 1. You titled the thread gold collapsing, bitcoin up.. How could that not be the start point of this thread and discussion.. 2. Your GLD short in and of itself is underwater. You announce it and asked for it to be recorded here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg932843#msg9328433. My phyzz I purchased in 2006-7 is killin it too!! so?? 4. Yup, you called for a massive collapse in the stock market, then made a bet based upon that call that was supposed to prove that your call was right. It didn't collapse, your losing the bet. Where is this corner you were calling for?? This doensn't even qualify as a bend as far I'm concerned much less a corner More of a small pullback with sideways action from there.. 5. What miner trade is that?? |
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