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7001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 02:34:13 AM
It’s looking rather red in Alt land.  Tether $1.03 lol
7002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 01:30:29 AM
We are halfway down the one week candle.  Relax.

It's just...I think I can see the Earth out there. I never want to go back.

https://youtu.be/K2ku1A5Ox8U

Crank the volume and learn to love it.
7003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 01:21:02 AM
Roach:  nothing would delight me more than $3k Bitcoin tomorrow.
7004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 01:15:08 AM
We are halfway down the one week candle.  Relax.
7005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 12:47:58 AM
Thank you for the expiration dates.  

No I don’t think the CME one allows direct back to backs. But I am sure all sorts of hedge funds will pop up offering back to backs.

Anyone who wanted to short has been able to do so for years on BFX. They get rekted all the time.

As for the dip, I spent the last of my budgeted fiat at $9200.  The price is going to have to come down a lot more for me to buy more. $13,000 isn’t low enough to lure me back. 
7006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2017, 12:36:23 AM

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there wr

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk



CBOE rules allow the futures to be linked to trades of underlying positions held on Gemini, called an “Exchange of Contract for Underlying Position”.  So you can trade BTC on Gemini for BTC futures on CBOE.  And you can sell your future for real bitcoin.  


Thank
7007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 11:00:48 PM
Was Gemini hacked or is this just scheduled maintenance like their status page claims?

https://status.gemini.com/incidents/k4qvyflfmm24



Yep.. it is surely taking them a long time to get back online, and they have been having quite a few of these issues in recent weeks, which does not bode well for them in terms of attracting institutional investors and even partnering with CBOE

It appears that those "non traditional financial fucks" aka Gemini, did not participate in our "crash" from a few hours ago.

I was just able to log in and none of my buy orders below $15k executed, and the Gemini price is currently bouncing in the $15k territory.

Perhaps they will dip a little bit to get more in line with the other exchanges, but I am having my doubts, since in recent days they have been lining up a lot more closely with GDAX, which seems to be their current bouncing around price point.

If institutional money stabilises Gdax and Gemini, then arb will eventually clean up BFx and Bitstamp. I think we all risk being bored silly.
7008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 10:35:29 PM
My prediction for opening price 24 hours from now.

XBT/F8 January:  $16,000

XBT/G8 February:  $17,000

XBT/H8 March:  $18,000
7009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 10:30:36 PM
CBOE futures launch in 24 hours.

Each contract is for a US$ cash payment equal to 1 Bitcoin at the Gemini price at the Settlement Time, which is 4 pm Central Time on the Settlement Date.  Minimum price tick is $10.  Contracts settle in January, February and March.

XBT/F8 January

XBT/G8 February

XBT/H8 March

Please place your price predictions for the opening price of each of the three futures contracts.  Note:   I am still trying to work out the Settlement Date in each month. If someone has that info I will edit this post.


Edit:   Expiration Dates courtesy of Heater

GXBT      16250.00   -572.59   16350.10   14500.00     
XBT/F8   01/17/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/G8   02/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/H8   03/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
7010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 09:07:55 PM
Don't want to be talking my book here, but have you seen that the new Byteball wallet allows payments to any email-adress? I've been waiting for killer applications like that in bitcoin waaaaayyy to long.

Edit: LOL ^
It does? Or am I getting trolled?

https://medium.com/byteball/sending-cryptocurrency-to-email-5c9bce22b8a9

Looks like the same functionality as a Reddit tip bot. 
7011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 08:46:47 PM
I guess that if we're debating conspiracies and trading insults there's not much to talk about pricewise? Good news, in my book.

CBOE is going to be offering cash settled future insults in spring 2018.
7012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 07:39:43 PM
Was Gemini hacked or is this just scheduled maintenance like their status page claims?

https://status.gemini.com/incidents/k4qvyflfmm24


Timing is a bit awkward given CBOE trading is based only on the Gemini price and starts in just over 24 hours.  
7013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 08:26:38 AM
So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

I am not expecting much engagement at the beginning.  Most of the major banks seem to be against it - possibly because they see bitcoin as a threat to their business model.  So I am actually expecting a soft start with momentum building from there.  As futures are quoted daily in the financial press, Bitcoin becomes normalized and the long term trend is strongly up.
7014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 06:10:39 AM

upload photo to website
7015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 05:54:01 AM

url for an image
7016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 05:33:48 AM
You know what would make my day?  Litecoin overtaking Bcash.

Go Litecoin go.
7017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 04:43:45 AM
Looks like 4 quadrillion is the high estimate.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/325982-derivatives-toxic-instrument-review/

Personally I need far far less than that to achieve my goals. 
7018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 04:27:11 AM
At $300 trillion, the market cap would be equal to 8% of the current market cap of financial instruments.  Bitcoin is a financial instrument. 

But no one is claiming you need 1,000x return to be an early adopter.  Returns and adoption phase do not have to be correlated. 
7019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 04:10:50 AM
Uptrend on the 15s.  Shall we throw a bit of a shindig before futures trading starts Sunday 5pm Central time?
7020  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2017, 03:46:34 AM
Global cellphone penetration was 63% in 2016.  That puts cellphone penetration close to half way through late majority stage.

I think we can say that Bitcoin is still very much in the innovator stage today measured against global population.  The more important question is whether global adoption is the right standard.
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