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7501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 04:19:48 AM
Everyone having fun except Teara. Shocking development.

Tera and fun don't come in same sentence.

Tell her that when she's trading from the deck of her yacht in Monaco harbour.
7502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 04:11:47 AM
It's all about the animal spirits.

And that's John Maynard Keynes.  Maybe Keynesian economics has a closer connection to psychics than we realise.
7503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2014, 03:32:19 AM
11.30 am Sunday.
7504  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2014, 12:58:59 PM
Dish is at least 12 hours old.  And China going to bed. 

Odd.
7505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2014, 12:48:52 PM
This is getting silly.
7506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 01:53:34 PM
It's hilarious watching $5 slippage on a 1 BTC trade
7507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 01:17:46 PM
Thanks you very much, this really means a lot to me, especially coming from you... I rarely read your posts because they are boring as hell and most of the time they do NOT contain any information or entertainment. Thanks anyway. Also:

WELCOME TO MY IGNORE LIST!
That is fake user (note the spelling). IT IS NOT ME.


Don't worry. We know the account is fake.  Easier to look at the activity than spelling of Stolfi.  Activity is so low it's an obvious troll account.
7508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 01:05:49 PM
i really needed some positive news. a nice pro bitcoin read. something reassuring. some ammo vs the persistant fudstream.


http://www.wired.com/2014/05/quantum-computing/

Quote
But if you had a quantum computer and Shor’s algorithm, you could cheat that math—and destroy all existing cryptography.
7509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 26, 2014, 08:11:25 AM
Welp I've been in cold hold since early March.  Still holding currently but back and watching with interest.
7510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2014, 04:19:50 AM
It shows that they should've had Currency: BTC     Balance:     951,116.21905382

So 950k btc.

Not necessarily just clients as Mt Gox's holdings and Mr Karpeles' holdings may be represented in the accounting system as "users". 

It shows what their accounting system says they should have had. Which accounting system may or may not have any connection to reality.  

7511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2014, 03:21:14 AM
Jay

If someone tells you they are going to buy drugs with bitcoin then you have a legal duty not to sell bitcoin to them.   Just like you have a legal duty not to sell someone a pillow if they tell you they are going to use it to asphyxiate their mother in law. And no this is not a govt conspiracy against pillow dealers.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accessory_(legal_term)

Thatt you may consider this to be an unreasonable intrusion of the government into your affairs is not particularly relevant.
7512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2014, 12:27:03 PM
Tera I think you need some sleep.
7513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2014, 12:29:56 AM
Yes I'm looking forward to a Monday rally. 
7514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 09:50:44 AM
And I hope this isn't too personal - do you have pulmonary hypertension?
7515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 09:41:26 AM
I won't ask in what sense is the joke right or why you are distributing fish.
If you give a man a fish, he eats for a day, but if you give him a Poisson distribution he eats at a known average rate at times independent of each other.

Any mechanic will tell you that you cannot count the fish without affecting their distribution. Besides the cat in the box probably ate them.
7516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the price/BTC rise to 1.000 USD again you think ? on: March 08, 2014, 09:22:55 AM
Everything will be fine.  Price will go up again.  You will have what are you looking for. I will turn your sorrow into treasured gold.  But first you are going to have to stick around for another round of hold.
7517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 09:00:05 AM
Ok on what basis is the price "right" as distinct from the price simply being the price.
Whenever its the same as the value.  The price is a stochastic process.  The value is a distribution with stochastic process hyperparameters.

What I said in the previous post was a joke.  What I said in the previous paragraph was not a joke.  I don't have a reflexive model to predict whether the next paragraph or post will be a joke, but I will know it if I see it.

The point is no one can tell it is a joke just by looking at it.  And jokes are often a function of the news but they bounce right back in a day or so.  I won't ask in what sense is the joke right or why you are distributing fish.
7518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 08:37:55 AM
Anyone that believes the price is always right is an idiot.

The price is very rarely the same as the value.  When it is, it is like a random clock, which is right the average number of times each day, with a standard deviation, skew and kurtosis which vary according to a Poisson distribution.

Ok on what basis is the price "right" as distinct from the price simply being the price.
7519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 08:34:31 AM
The price on bitcoinbuilder being 0.6 being a prime example.  Any sensible person would have known that a 40% discount in btc terms in the circumstances was wholly inadequate.

This is a prime example of what happens if there is a supply shortage, GoxBTC have only a limited supply (the total number what was in builder before gox went offline. And people can bring in unlimited real BTC.

This is also why I love BTC, limited supply and low inflation, Sure there will be BTC banks/exchanges operating under fractional reserve, but to get more than double the amount of BTC (IOU's) into circulation is quite hard, people just need to take delivery of their BTC so those businesses can fail.

This also why i hate LTC, way to much inflation.

Which proves the point that the price was idiotically high because punters were engaging in risk seeking behaviour rather than being rational actors.

*edit* yes I have my doubts about ltc.
7520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2014, 08:15:22 AM
Anyone that believes the price is always right is an idiot. Because the market is often an idiot.  The price on bitcoinbuilder being 0.6 being a prime example.  Any sensible person would have known that a 40% discount in btc terms in the circumstances was wholly inadequate.

Edit:  that doesn't mean TA doesn't have its place. It is an excellent measure of sentiment.
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